Hyperinflation and Peter Schiff

[RandomGuy]

Wow.

Let me paint a picture for you:


Peter David Schiff (pronounced /ˈʃɪf/; born March 23, 1963) is an American investment broker, author and financial commentator. Schiff is CEO and chief global strategist[1] of Euro Pacific Capital Inc., a broker-dealer based in Westport, Connecticut,[2] CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, LLC, a gold and silver dealer based in New York City,[3] and CEO of Euro Pacific Bank Ltd., a full service bank based in St. Vincent and the Grenadines.[4]

Schiff has appeared as a guest on financial television shows and been quoted in major print publications. He is host of The Peter Schiff Show, an audio show broadcast on terrestrial and internet radio[5] and was formerly host of an internet podcast called Wall Street Unspun[6] now archived as podcasts.[5][7] In 2010, Schiff ran as a candidate in the Republican primary for the United States Senate seat in Connecticut, but lost to Linda McMahon.

Schiff is known for his bearish views on the US economy and US dollar, and his bullish views on commodities, foreign stocks and foreign currencies. Schiff also voices strong support for the Austrian School of economic thought, first introduced to him by his father.[8][9]

Mr. Schiff's pronouncements of hyperinflation and economic collapse make him the darling in certain circles of the financial/political world. He says what they like to hear.


Funny thing though.

He runs an investment fund, two actually, based on investing on the theory that ... wait for it... hyperinflation and economic collapse is right around the corner. He will even supply you with a FREE copy of his book, telling you all about how to protect yourself from hyperinflation through certain kinds of investments.



Coincidence?

I don't think so.

Not that the guy is wrong, simply because he stands to benefit enormously from his pronouncements, but anybody who thinks he is right and wants to throw money at him, well... do your homework and be careful.

[Rick Santorum]

You need demand in order for hyperinflation to occur. A country with a median income of $26000 will never have enough demand for hyperinflation.

simple as that tbh

[TeyshaBlue]

His dad, Irwin, is a nutbar.

[RandomGuy]

Hell, I smell money.

Since no one is calling Schiff on his conflict of interest, I should start a "me too" fund. Fuck, I'll even write some plausible sounding books to go with it. Dang. I have been looking for a way to take advantage of certain groups' stupidity, and this sure seems like a sure-fire way to do so.

Now all I ahve to do is get over any moral objections I might have.

Anyone have any good rationalizations for me?

[Th'Pusher]

Hell, I smell money.

Since no one is calling Schiff on his conflict of interest, I should start a "me too" fund. Fuck, I'll even write some plausible sounding books to go with it. Dang. I have been looking for a way to take advantage of certain groups' stupidity, and this sure seems like a sure-fire way to do so.

Now all I ahve to do is get over any moral objections I might have.

Anyone have any good rationalizations for me?

The fool and his money will soon be parted regardless, so you might as well be the beneficiary.

[TeyshaBlue]

Hell, I smell money.

Since no one is calling Schiff on his conflict of interest, I should start a "me too" fund. Fuck, I'll even write some plausible sounding books to go with it. Dang. I have been looking for a way to take advantage of certain groups' stupidity, and this sure seems like a sure-fire way to do so.

Now all I ahve to do is get over any moral objections I might have.

Anyone have any good rationalizations for me?

Just run for office. You can have your conscience surgically removed.

[Sportcamper]

A country with a median income of $26000 will never have enough demand for hyperinflation.

How did you come up with that number?

WIKI U.S. median household income $51,144 in 2010... $50,502 in 2011....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States

[2centsworth]

I'm not sure where the conflict is in sstarting an investment fund
based on your investment beliefs. If you invest blindly then that's on you

[RandomGuy]

I'm not sure where the conflict is in sstarting an investment fund
based on your investment beliefs. If you invest blindly then that's on you

What if I didn't believe in it, but was just pumping up the fear level to make money? I think it is a bunch of hooey.

Would I have a conflict of interest if I directly profitted from whipping up hysteria?

[2centsworth]

What if I didn't believe in it, but was just pumping up the fear level to make money? I think it is a bunch of hooey.

Would I have a conflict of interest if I directly profitted from whipping up hysteria?

There is a "potential" conflict of interest, but there are "potential" conflictrs in all of life. We're adults and need to do our due diligence before investing our dollars. Like Porno, girls agree to be degraded. Price of freedom.

[Nbadan]

Gold is next....

Fools gold..


:nope

[BradLohaus]

All hyperinflationary events are fiscal; deflation is purely financial. Always remember this when thinking about the future, short or long.

[scott]

This would make a lot more sense if you would buy Book #2. Until then, you are just a fool.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

How did you come up with that number?

WIKI U.S. median household income $51,144 in 2010... $50,502 in 2011....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States

You're confusing median household income with median individual income.

:lol dumbshit right winger

[RandomGuy]

This would make a lot more sense if you would buy Book #2. Until then, you are just a fool.

I strongly suspect that the "Free" book is the one that builds up the fear to a fever pitch for the first 2/3s, then HINTS at the kinds of investments and specific funds that can be purchased, and the book you have to actually pay for is the one with the real solutions that, oh-so-coincidentally, happen to be sold and offered by Mr. Schiff, who takes his rightful capitalist management fees.

What a racket. Get people to BUY your sales brochures, er books, then go out and invest in your funds.

[RandomGuy]

There is a "potential" conflict of interest, but there are "potential" conflictrs in all of life. We're adults and need to do our due diligence before investing our dollars. Like Porno, girls agree to be degraded. Price of freedom.

HOORAY rationalization! Thank you. I can now take advantage of others with no qualms.

I mean, blaming the victims was something I hadn't considered.

[Sportcamper]

You're confusing median household income with median individual income.

:lol dumbshit right winger

That is not fair...I am not a right winger...

So what is the correct number Einstein?

[RandomGuy]

You're confusing median household income with median individual income.

:lol dumbshit right winger

If there is one thing I have learned in the internets, it is to be a bit more hesitant to pull the trigger. It was an honest question, and there were no loaded words. Go back and re-read it.

Well meant and freely given.

[RandomGuy]

That is not fair...I am not a right winger...

So what is the correct number Einstein?

Heh, I just went to the household URL, backspaced over the word "household" and typed in "personal" then hit entier.

VIOLA!!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_income_in_the_United_States

$27,500 or so.

[RandomGuy]

We're adults and need to do our due diligence before investing our dollars.

I would find that a lot more convincing if financial education were a bit more widespread.

THe problem of information assymetry rears it ugly head even with "due diligence".

[2centsworth]

HOORAY rationalization! Thank you. I can now take advantage of others with no qualms.

I mean, blaming the victims was something I hadn't considered.
You can try, but you will soon learn that any dollars earned will be short lived. In business, a good reputation is your ticket to the bank.

[2centsworth]

I would find that a lot more convincing if financial education were a bit more widespread.

THe problem of information assymetry rears it ugly head even with "due diligence".

There's a ton of financial education and information available. Plus, I always recommend people seek the sservices of a CFP for added protection.

[RandomGuy]

You can try, but you will soon learn that any dollars earned will be short lived. In business, a good reputation is your ticket to the bank.

All I have to do is structure it so that there are some modest assets that will do what they are supposed to do in an hyperinflationary environment. That is the beauty of our system. You can be as predatory as you want, and still have the plausible deniability of just being an idiot and there is nothing that the suckers can do after you have their money. Sure they can sue you, but tort reforms have made that... difficult.

[RandomGuy]

There's a ton of financial education and information available. Plus, I always recommend people seek the sservices of a CFP for added protection.

Indeed, sound advice.

If you are driven by irrational fear, and you ask the CFP, "will this protect me in the case of hyperinflation"? What will the CFP say, assuming I have structured my go-nowhere funds correctly?

[boutons_deux]

"a good reputation is your ticket to the bank."

:lol doesn't apply to the corrupt, criminal financial industry

[2centsworth]

All I have to do is structure it so that there are some modest assets that will do what they are supposed to do in an hyperinflationary environment Assets doing what they are supposed to do sounds fine by me, so I'm not following.


That is the beauty of our system. You can be as predatory as you want, and still have the plausible deniability of just being an idiot and there is nothing that the suckers can do after you have their money. Sure they can sue you, but tort reforms have made that... difficult. I need an example here so I can understand and then reply.

What I like about our system is that anybody can amass wealth irrespective of race, color or creed. I've experience it in my own life.

[boutons_deux]

"anybody can amass wealth irrespective of race, color or creed"

what bullshit. American social and financial upward mobility has decreased, very probably are still decreasing, in the the last 35-40 years. you could look it up.

born poor, die poor, born rich, die rich.

And it's 1% Ckass Warfare policy, not an Act of God, or natural law, and esp not "natural" in the self-glorified "land of opportunity" America.

[angrydude]

I agree. The only people who should make economic predictions are those who are not in the financial industry.

[tlongII]

Conflict of interest? Sounds like Al Gore to me.

[The Reckoning]

if he believed in hyperinflation, he wouldn't be operating that type of business.

[RandomGuy]

Conflict of interest? Sounds like Al Gore to me.

You are confusing conflict of interest with hypocrisy.

[RandomGuy]

Assets doing what they are supposed to do sounds fine by me, so I'm not following.

I need an example here so I can understand and then reply.

What I like about our system is that anybody can amass wealth irrespective of race, color or creed. I've experience it in my own life.

Anybody can if they get lucky, I suppose. The great lottery.

What would you like an example of?

Tort reform?

Non-economic punative damages are highly limited, which makes suing someone who gives truly negligent investment advice that loses someone $5,000 or so out of $10,000 invested virtually impossible.

$5,000 might not be much for any one person, but when you can take your % off the top, regardless of those losses, and do so from enough people, you can make true money.

In civil cases you only have to tip it over a 51% threshold, so that makes it easier, but such cases are nototriously hard to win, simply because juries can get easily bogged down by a good defense attorney who will bury them in complex minutae.

There are also business groups who are looking to even further limit the ability of people to pool into classes for class action lawsuits.

There is a large amount of money and influence cutting away at the ability of people to sue for various redress for torts, such as really bad investment advice.

As long as I can cling to a shred of "well, the portfolio should operate as advertised" then even if I know it is stupid... i'm scott free.

[RandomGuy]

Assets doing what they are supposed to do sounds fine by me, so I'm not following.

Assets that are structured to do well in a hyperinflationary environment will perform poorly in low inflation or negative inflation environments.

If the vast majority of economic indicators indicate that our economy will be in a low inflation environment in the future, then you have assets that will do nothing, and will actively lose money.

This may be fine as a hedge, but if you push it as the only way to shield your assets, as Mr. Schiff does by playing up the fear part in his marketing, then you get people going "all in", which is generally bad advice.

[2centsworth]

Assets that are structured to do well in a hyperinflationary environment will perform poorly in low inflation or negative inflation environments.

If the vast majority of economic indicators indicate that our economy will be in a low inflation environment in the future, then you have assets that will do nothing, and will actively lose money.

This may be fine as a hedge, but if you push it as the only way to shield your assets, as Mr. Schiff does by playing up the fear part in his marketing, then you get people going "all in", which is generally bad advice.

agreed

[2centsworth]

Anybody can if they get lucky, I suppose. The great lottery.

I didn't hit the lottery and know plenty of people like me who started with nothing and have a little something saved. Does it mean I'm Obama wealthy, no, but I'm able to spend lots of time with family and still pay the bills. Anyone, and I mean anyone, can do the same.

[boutons_deux]

"Anyone, and I mean anyone, can do the same."

anyone on minimum wage and/or part time?

[2centsworth]

"Anyone, and I mean anyone, can do the same."

anyone on minimum wage and/or part time?



Are you agreeing with me for everyone else?

[scroteface]

You need demand in order for hyperinflation to occur. A country with a median income of $26000 will never have enough demand for hyperinflation.

simple as that tbh

probably more dollars floating around overseas than here in the US tbh...anyone got the statistics on foreign exchange holdings worldwide? whottt happens if the world dumps the dollar due to irresponsible printing and imports go sky high? we import fucking everything tbh.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

probably more dollars floating around overseas than here in the US tbh...anyone got the statistics on foreign exchange holdings worldwide? whottt happens if the world dumps the dollar due to irresponsible printing and imports go sky high? we import fucking everything tbh.

There's around $30 trillion worldwide.

:lol "irresponsible printing"
:lol thinking the US government is what controls the money supply
:lol being a fan of deregulation but complaining about high import level and failing to see the irony there

[scroteface]

There's around $30 trillion worldwide.

:lol "irresponsible printing"
:lol thinking the US government is what controls the money supply
:lol being a fan of deregulation but complaining about high import level and failing to see the irony there

The US government willingly gives control of the money supply away to a private bank tbh. I'm not the only one who thinks their fiscal irresponsibility could lead to loss of world reserve currency status:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100461159

[RandomGuy]

I didn't hit the lottery and know plenty of people like me who started with nothing and have a little something saved. Does it mean I'm Obama wealthy, no, but I'm able to spend lots of time with family and still pay the bills. Anyone, and I mean anyone, can do the same.

It is possible, but given what we know about the stickiness of poverty in the US it is highly unlikely that he people who will get lucky will come from a poor family.

We have eroded social safety nets to a steady drum beat of right-wing craziness, and that costs a lot of lost human capital.

[RandomGuy]

The US government willingly gives control of the money supply away to a private bank tbh. I'm not the only one who thinks their fiscal irresponsibility could lead to loss of world reserve currency status:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100461159


Bove uses several metrics to make his point, focusing on the dollar as a percentage of total world money supply.That total has plunged from nearly 90 percent in 1952 to closer to 15 percent now. He also notes that the Chinese yuan, the yen and the euro each have a greater share of that total.

1) Comparing the post ww2 period, where the US was the only country that really had an undamaged economy, to now, is dumb.
2) The Euro-zone's doddering response to the ongoing crisis includes the potential for it to break up.
3) China actively manipulates its currency to suit its own needs
4) It is natural and inevitable, mostly for reasons far outside control of the Fed.


The only real other options mentioned by the guy are not really options to any sane business, i.e. the Euro and the Renmenbi for basing transactions on.

The dollar will continue its decline as the rest of the world continues to grow its economy. The US will represent a shrinking share of global GDP, not because of anything we are or are not doing, but simply because the rest of the world was so crushingly poor in 1952, and has a LOT of room to industrialize with all the rapid growth in efficiency and living standards that entails.

If we grow our economy at a reasonble 3% per year, while the rest of the non-European world is growing at 5% or so, that is simply reality.

Too many people seem to freak out at this loss of American exceptionalism. It was temporary. Get over it, and deal with the world as it is, not as you think it should be.

[BradLohaus]

That CNBC article reads like my posts from years back. Losing currency hegemony is never good. The world has needed oil and dollars for a long time; we've...um...been running that game. Playing by the same rules as everyone else will be a shock. Imagine European level gas prices in the US suburbs/exurbs. This will happen. Adjustments won't be made overnight. Add in the entitlements plus debt over the next generation or so. How many 10s of trillions? With higher interst rates. The Gov. will essentially print money through the Fed; there's no other way if the world doesn't favor the dollar.

[BradLohaus]

guess we could become the world's largest oil producer in a decade or so.

[sjacquemotte]

You're confusing median household income with median individual income.

:lol dumbshit right winger
Rick Santorum... So you use your trolls to back you up when you come under scrutiny for your nonsense. Pretty pathetic. You are on here alot for a new guy "working" allegedly.

[2centsworth]

It is possible, but given what we know about the stickiness of poverty in the US it is highly unlikely that he people who will get lucky will come from a poor family.

We have eroded social safety nets to a steady drum beat of right-wing craziness, and that costs a lot of lost human capital.

Where we disagree is that it takes luck to get out of poverty. I was born in poverty and grew-up in poverty. It's not a crap shoot to make your way out of poverty. My parents both have 10th grade educations. Are there people who have been mentally and physically abused who have the odds totally stacked against them, absolutely, but I'm not talking about them. There are a lot of smart people living in poverty who just need a little direction, hope and patience.

Granted your view of poor people may be a lot different than mine, but I don't see poor people as any less able than anyone else.

[RandomGuy]

That CNBC article reads like my posts from years back. Losing currency hegemony is never good. The world has needed oil and dollars for a long time; we've...um...been running that game. Playing by the same rules as everyone else will be a shock. Imagine European level gas prices in the US suburbs/exurbs. This will happen. Adjustments won't be made overnight. Add in the entitlements plus debt over the next generation or so. How many 10s of trillions? With higher interst rates. The Gov. will essentially print money through the Fed; there's no other way if the world doesn't favor the dollar.

The idea isn't new. Just because it is older doesn't make it any more valid than it was then.

The world will diversify its currency base, as it should. We will have to deal with that, but until someone steps up with a serious replacement currency... we're it. It won't be because of some superstitious handwaving about debt and the Fed, it will simply be a natural unwinding as the rest of the world, thankfully, catches up to us.

[RandomGuy]

Where we disagree is that it takes luck to get out of poverty. I was born in poverty and grew-up in poverty. It's not a crap shoot to make your way out of poverty. My parents both have 10th grade educations. Are there people who have been mentally and physically abused who have the odds totally stacked against them, absolutely, but I'm not talking about them. There are a lot of smart people living in poverty who just need a little direction, hope and patience.

Granted your view of poor people may be a lot different than mine, but I don't see poor people as any less able than anyone else.

Neither do I. I do think you can be really ground up and fall through the cracks if you are poor in this country, and that is a very hard thing to overcome.

I think poor people work their asses off, and are a bit more together than many think, but our system simply doesn't allow for the kinds of support that allow people to dig out of poverty.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socio-economic_mobility_in_the_United_States

For whatever reason the myth that if you are poor in America you have a better chance of not being poor because of some magic system we have is generally belied by the actual data on the subject.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socio-economic_mobility_in_the_United_States


Some studies have found that not only is the degree of social mobility in the US not large but it has either remained unchanged or decreased since the 1970s.[11][20][21][22] Other research shows that economic mobility in the U.S. increased from 1950 to 1980 but has declined sharply since 1980.[23]

The centrist Brookings Institution said in March 2013 that income inequality was increasing and becoming permanent, sharply reducing social mobility.[9]

Our current weak safety net, pushed by the right-wing in this country keeps people poor, by trapping them in cycles where they cannot accumulate capital, and have to rely on labor to better themselves.

We need more wealth transfers. Free daycare would be an excellent start, IMO.

On the other hand, we need to invest in smaller businesses, and root through the regulatory framework to trim stupidity.

Complex problem with complex solutions, both from the left and the right.

[boutons_deux]

hyperfinflation, the national debt, bloated govt boogie mens gonna get us all! :lol

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XyDwnkCqWHs/UZT0lNLhJuI/AAAAAAAAaUk/yVWnEPS1jFU/s1600/InflationApril2013.jpg

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XyDwnkCqWHs/UZT0lNLhJuI/AAAAAAAAaUk/yVWnEPS1jFU/s1600/InflationApril2013.jpg