Hurricane Emily: Texas Bound?

[MannyIsGod]

Technically, the Emily is currently a tropical storm. However, the models are forecasting that Emily will reach at least catagory 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale which constitues a major hurricane.

Dennis at landfall was a strong catagory 3 and you all saw what that did.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0505W5_sm2+gif/204720W_sm.gif

Thats the forecast track over the next 5 days. They usually have some room for error, but there is reason to believe that this will be fairly accurate.



THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/17...AND ONCE AGAIN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE HAS EDGED SOUTHWARD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE...KEEPING IT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE GFS AND NOGAPS ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
All of the models at the moment are currently saying almost the same thing. Forecasters look for things of this nature when doing their job. When all the models are saying what the others are saying, there is a high probability of those models being correct.

In other words, it's probably coming this way.

If you remember in the previous hurricane thread, someone mentioned that the energy was gone from the Gulf and the Carribean due to Dennis. I said that was incorect and it seems that water temp readings are proving this.



WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE
BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS HAS ACTUALLY MADE
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF DENNIS HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD
BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO.
Dennis may have made things worse.

[MannyIsGod]

This shows you how much the models agree on the path.

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200505_model.gif

[Shelly]

Not that I'm hoping it does for damages reasons, but we need the rain!

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

This thing will "ideally" hit in the SPI/Brownsville area, then work it's way NW and fill it up Falcon and Amistad before heading up through central Texas and north Texas, taking care of Canyon, Travis, and north Texas.

[IX_Equilibrium]

but we need the rain!


Fuckin' A we do. My water bill will be atrocious this month.

[Manu20]

Well the GFS brings it way south of the RGV on wednesday july 20.
http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&modelrun=0&map=SURPRE&time=24&domain=CA

BTW we need the rain badly in deep south texas so hopefully it will bring us some rain.

[SpursWoman]

Fuckin' A we do. My water bill will be atrocious this month.


I haven't gotten mine yet....I'm afraid to open the email when it comes. I have a gigantic yard I've desperately been trying to save. :cry

[MannyIsGod]

This thing will "ideally" hit in the SPI/Brownsville area, then work it's way NW and fill it up Falcon and Amistad before heading up through central Texas and north Texas, taking care of Canyon, Travis, and north Texas.
I disagree. The best case scenario would be for it to come ashore near Kennedy County where Brent came ashore. No one there but cows. A storm hitting SPI and Port Isable - especially a strong one - would be a disaster that would far outweight any drought.

We really don't need the water that bad. We've gone through a dry month and a half, but the aquifer isn't in horrible shape by any means and neither are any of the resivoirs.

[Samr]

Awsome. I feel bad for those along the coast, but echoing the sentiments of everyone else, we need the rain.

Unfortunately, with hurricanes come tornados. And those are no fun to be in. Trust me.

[Chris]

We really do need the rain regardless of the conditions. I've heard a tornado before that was several miles away. Scariest thing I've ever heard in my whole life. Sounds like a thousand trains going in every direction.

[Shelly]

My water bill kept going up and up and was over $100 this month. I didn't even think to check our sprinklers because last time we had a huge bill we had a pipe leak. We could tell because one area of the yard was also soaked.

Since their was no evidence of that and ours go off at 2 am, it didn't even dawn on me to check them. Sure enough, I've got a broken one that could rival Old Faithful.

[Shelly]

My husband's new car is on the boat right now. Hopefully, it won't end up at the bottom of the Gulf! :lol

[atlfan25]

It probably will hit us due to things evening out with the rain and all.

[MannyIsGod]

My husband's new car is on the boat right now. Hopefully, it won't end up at the bottom of the Gulf! :lol Dude! Car Carriers are fucking MASSIVE. I'm not sure if a Hurricane could sink one or not. Those ships are incredible.

[Shelly]

That's nice to know! :lol

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

IF it does, that'll be one hell of a dive spot.

[MannyIsGod]

IF it does, that'll be one hell of a dive spot.
No shit. I bet a sunken car carrier would make for a hell of an artificial reef. Good fishing!

[cherylsteele]

IMHO.....the Texas coast has been rather lucky, save for Bret and Claudette (a couple of years ago).


I have been hearing that the Texas coast is well overdo for a nasty hruuricane.....I have been seeing many forecast putting near Corpus.....which would be terrible.

[Old School Chic]

Manny the Metereologist!

[tw05baller]

I disagree. The best case scenario would be for it to come ashore near Kennedy County where Brent came ashore. No one there but cows. A storm hitting SPI and Port Isable - especially a strong one - would be a disaster that would far outweight any drought.

We really don't need the water that bad. We've gone through a dry month and a half, but the aquifer isn't in horrible shape by any means and neither are any of the resivoirs.

it was called Bret

[MannyIsGod]

Good call, there was no n.

[Das Texan]

ya this thing would be one scary mofo.


anyone wanna hit up the coast for this thing?

[AlamoSpursFan]

I've always wanted to go beach combing after one.

And Manny's right. The valley would get creamed if that thing comes ashore there. Better to blow over a few cows and come in up the coast. Of course the last Tropical Storm that hit Kennedy County brought some rough weather to my neck of the woods, so maybe it could just go to Mexico and kick some rain up north. Please?

[TheAdmiral#50]

I live in Corpus Christi so I hope it does not come this way,I hate those things.
We do need the rain though,but NOT the damage it can and will do.

[KEDA]

Bring it!


Im a sucker for devistation caused by mother nature!

I allways wanted to be a stormchaser, and twister was allways a favorite movie of mine!!!

[SWC Bonfire]

Damn right we need the rain. At my Dad's place near Skidmore we've had one inch of rain and 8 inches of snow in almost 8 months.

[CosmicCowboy]

That one is pretty deep to make Texas...Yucatan peninsula usually knocks em down pretty good and they end up going into central Mexico.

[MannyIsGod]

Well, the only thing to watch (not the only thing but the main thing) over the next week is going to be the high pressure over the east. If it strengthens into Texas the way most of the models are dictating at the moment, the storm will move into mexico and then the remenants might swing up north through Texas on the side of another high. The remenants won't bring much rain by that point, however.

But if that high develops slowly or weakly, that storm will come north. It's going to be near the yucatan in 4-5 days, and where it goes after that is still up for grabs but there is a decent chance of it coming this way.

[SWC Bonfire]

Better to go south than north. If it goes north (Houston), we'll be on the dry side, and won't get jack in South Texas.

[Hook Dem]

That one is pretty deep to make Texas...Yucatan peninsula usually knocks em down pretty good and they end up going into central Mexico.
Don't be too sure Jack. Most in here are too young to remember Celia on Aug 3, 1970. It was on this path and made a direct hit on Corpus Christi. I lived in Corpus all my life and have seen my share of Hurricanes. In that one, it came ashore with wind gusts in excess of 175MPH. I lost the roof off my house and Corpus suffered complete destruction. No power for three weeks. I was working for SW Bell and worked for two months without a day off and those days were 18 hours long. I hope history does not repeat itself. I actually thought I was gonna die that day.

[MannyIsGod]

BTW, The Yucatan has jack shit to do with where this thing goes. It's all about airflow and currents. It's like anything else, and will take the path of least resistence.

[Useruser666]

Dude! Car Carriers are fucking MASSIVE. I'm not sure if a Hurricane could sink one or not. Those ships are incredible.

Well I couldn't find the site, but I have seen pictures of a car carrier that sunk from either a hurricane or a collision. It was filled with vehicles and some of them managed to get washed ashore.

[Shelly]

I know that when Volvo was shipping out their new SUV, the carrier sunk.

[MannyIsGod]

Well I couldn't find the site, but I have seen pictures of a car carrier that sunk from either a hurricane or a collision. It was filled with vehicles and some of them managed to get washed ashore.
Damn, that's pretty crazy. I'm going to have to look that up. Sounds pretty interesting.

[Shelly]

collision (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3739635.stm)

Car carrier sinks off Singapore
A ship with 4,000 cars on board has sunk just south of Singapore after colliding with an oil tanker.

Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority (MPA) said the crash took place just before midnight on Saturday.

The four Korean and 16 Filipino crew members of the MV Hyundai no 105 were rescued.

The collision left a 50m x 20m hole in the car carrier's side. The MT Kaminesan, which was carrying 279,949 tons of crude oil was towed into port.

"Prior to the collision, warnings were given to the two vessels by the MPA's vessel traffic information service. The two vessels also communicated with each other," a statement from the port authority said.

The cause of the crash is under investigation.

Singapore is one of the world's busiest ports.

Story from BBC NEWS:

[MannyIsGod]

2 of the world's biggest ships playing chicken? How the fuck do you hit a supertanker OR a car carrier? Jesus! I hope these fuckers don't drive.

[Shelly]

i think this is the volvo one (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/2575009.stm)

A Norwegian car carrier has sunk in the English Channel after colliding with a container ship in thick fog in the early hours of Saturday.

The 24 crew members from the Tricolor abandoned ship and took to lifeboats after the collision at 0130 GMT, about 30 miles (48 kilometres) east of Ramsgate, Kent.

The container ship - the Kariba, registered in the Bahamas - was severely damaged and is making for port with its crew still on board.

There are no reports of any casualties.

The Tricolor had picked up its cargo of 2,862 cars and 77 containers in Zeebrugge, Belgium, and was on its way to Southampton, said Per Ronnevig, spokesman for its owners, shipping firm Wilhelmsen Lines.

A UK coastguard spokesman said: "The car carrier quickly developed a 15 degree list and its crew abandoned the vessel."

A spokesman for the French coastguard said the crew of the Tricolor had been rescued and were "safe and sound".

The Tricolor's captain and two officers were taken on board the Kariba, which is making its way to the Belgian port of Antwerp for inspection, coastguards said.

Warship at scene

The rest of the Tricolor's crew were picked up by a tug boat and have been taken to hospital in the French port of Dunkirk.

Lloyd's Casualty Reporting Service confirmed the 49,792-ton Tricolor had sunk and the 20,829-ton Kariba had been seriously damaged.

Dover Coastguard said a Belgian warship, the Wandelaar, was in the area helping French coastguards to deal with the incident.

A UK coastguard emergency towing vessel was sent to the scene along with other tugs.

Pollution barrier

The Tricolor was initially only partly submerged because of a low tide.

But it later disappeared from view.

Mark Clark from Dover coastguard said: "The vessel is now down below the surface, it has obviously settled.

"What you can see from the surface is just the top of the lifeboat, which is fixed to the side of the vessel - she is resting on her side - and that just comes up above the waves every now and again."

UK coastguards said it was now up to the ship's owners as to what would happen to the vessel's cargo.

The incident is being managed by the French authorities. A barrier is being put up around the wreck to contain any pollution.

An inquiry will be launched by the French authorities into the cause of the accident, but immediate investigations are being hampered by the thick fog.

[MannyIsGod]

I think ship captains must not be the smartest people out there. I should have known that after drunk ass ran his tanker aground in Alaska, though.

[CosmicCowboy]

BTW, The Yucatan has jack shit to do with where this thing goes. It's all about airflow and currents. It's like anything else, and will take the path of least resistence.

Manny, I am fully aware of that and as you stated it is too early to tell. I was basing my observation on the current computer projections to centerpunch the Yucatan and watching hurricanes in the past that have done this...it's not like crossing a small island...hurricanes usually lose the strong center and top when they cross it...and most that I remember have resulted in reduced strength hurricanes/tropical storms that end up dumping torrential rains into Mexice and washing villages into the gulf...

Looking at history as a guide to the future, the last hurricane to be in this ones currrent position to hit Texas was in 1901, and the results on the others are literally all over the map..so no real prediction help there...

here is a map that shows the historical tracks...

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200505_climo.gif

[SWC Bonfire]

Well, it's a good thing it's 1901 instead of 1900.

[MannyIsGod]

You're right about that CC. The Yucatan will weaken anything that goes over it. When you said knock it down I thought you meant make it go south, which it won't do. I misunderstood, my bad!

But as far as history goes, we're already in a record breaking year for the amount of storms this early in the season. 5 storms before the middle of July is really active. History dictates that this shoudln't be happening, but it is. (Global Warming anyone?)

The models have a pretty good handle on this thing, so it's pretty certain that it will at some point either hit the coast of Central America or enter the Gulf.

[travis2]

History dictates that this shoudln't be happening, but it is. (Global Warming anyone?)

uhhhhh...no.

[desflood]

Hurricane Dennis fixes botched reef 2 hours, 44 minutes ago



MIAMI (Reuters) - Mother Nature tidied up a man-made mess off the coast of the Florida Keys when the force of Hurricane Dennis flipped a sunken U.S. Navy ship into the perfect position to help form an artificial reef.

Powerful waves and currents generated by the hurricane flipped over the 510-foot (155-meter) USS Spiegel Grove and set it to rest on its keel on the ocean floor, reef project managers said on Tuesday.

That was the position Key Largo scuba divers and tourism promoters had aimed for when they scuttled the 6,880-tonhulk in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary in 2002.

"I'm flabbergasted," said Rob Bleser, the volunteer project director, after diving on the reoriented wreck on Monday. "Nature took its course and put it where it belongs."

The Cold War relic was the largest vessel ever deliberately sunk to form the backbone of a coral ridge to nurture sea life and amuse scuba divers.

Work crews had planned to slowly sink it upright. But it went down prematurely and rolled over, creating a navigational hazard when it landed bottom-up with the stern on the seabed and the bow jutting above the waterline.

Salvage crews used giant airbags and steel cables to nudge it over onto its starboard side, where it was safe from passing vessels but slightly disorienting for divers to swim through.

Then Hurricane Dennis blitzed past on Saturday, staying well west of the islands of the Florida Keys but kicking up 20-foot (5.6-meter) waves.

"Waves that high in close proximity to the reef can produce unusually strong currents with tremendous force," said National Weather Service meteorologist Matt Strahan.

The Spiegel Grove carried landing craft and cargo in the Mediterranean and Caribbean and was retired in 1989. It lies in 130 feet of water, a few miles off Key Largo.

[SWC Bonfire]

History dictates that this shoudln't be happening, but it is. (Global Warming anyone?)

I think that there is a theory that the "El nino" (sorry, no tilde) is caused by global warning, and for some reason hurricanes are not very prevalent in summers following those winters.

They have supercomputers working on the theories right now. My thought is the weather is too complex a global system to ever forcast with any sort of reliablity, although I think they have upped their 5 day + hurricane tracks to within 200% more accurate in the last 25-30 years.

[MannyIsGod]

uhhhhh...no.
Of course not, the raised water tempature would have nothing to do with a pattern of increased hurricane activity and intensity. Silly me!

[Useruser666]

http://www.tricolorsalvage.com/pages/home.asp

Here are some pictures from the Tricolor wreck.

http://img318.imageshack.us/img318/2642/carcarrierwreck8in.jpg

A blow up of the upper left corner. You can clearly see the car still hanging there.

http://img312.imageshack.us/img312/8079/carcarrierwreck29cl.jpg

[AlamoSpursFan]

History dictates that this shoudln't be happening, but it is. (Global Warming anyone?)

Hey Manny, during the coverage of Dennis (I think I heard it on CNN on Sirius Radio) last Sunday they were interviewing some NOAA analyst or other and they asked him that very question. His response was that it is a cyclical thing, that the Gulf warms up for about 20 years and then cools off for about 20 years and we're coming out of a cool cycle.

Have you encountered anything like that in your research? (Not a smart-ass question, I'd genuinely be interested to know if this is the case.)

[MannyIsGod]

I think that there is a theory that the "El nino" (sorry, no tilde) is caused by global warning, and for some reason hurricanes are not very prevalent in summers following those winters.

They have supercomputers working on the theories right now. My thought is the weather is too complex a global system to ever forcast with any sort of reliablity, although I think they have upped their 5 day + hurricane tracks to within 200% more accurate in the last 25-30 years.
Oh no doubt that forecasts are just going to get better as we go along. I think your estimates are far too modest however. They really have a much better handle on things than people give them credit for.

It's not just a matter of computing power but also knowing which observations are more important than others. The models are pretty impressive up to this point and are only going to get better.

Oh, and the El Nino thing I've read nothing about. I do know that if the earths tempature is going up on average, then that is going to affect the sea tempature greatly (on average). An rise of 1 degree in your average SST is going to have a pretty damn big impact. That is an incredible amount of energy being placed into a system, which means more energy will have to be moved around. Thats what storms are - the transfer of energy from one portion of the world to another through atomspheric methods.

[MannyIsGod]

Hey Manny, during the coverage of Dennis (I think I heard it on CNN on Sirius Radio) last Sunday they were interviewing some NOAA analyst or other and they asked him that very question. His response was that it is a cyclical thing, that the Gulf warms up for about 20 years and then cools off for about 20 years and we're coming out of a cool cycle.

Have you encountered anything like that in your research? (Not a smart-ass question, I'd genuinely be interested to know if this is the case.)
I'm not saying it's not cyclical and just for the record, I've never placed the blame on man made global warming. I simply mentoined global warming. There's no denying the tempature of this earth is going up - regardless of the reason - and that will and is having an affect on the storms.

Also, there was a study just released on how the oceans are absorbing larger amounts of carbon dioxide and are thereby being turned more acidic. The level of acidity by which they are rising seems small, but the impact that things of these nature have is enourmous.

The point I'm making is that the earth, it's atmosphere, and it's oceans are a huge system and when you add large amounts of energy you're never going to see changes which seem large. A degree means shit to us, but when you consider it on a global scale it's a pretty huge deal.

[Spam]

I'm not worried. I'm sure Jennifer's Doplar will "nail it" way before it threatens our coast.

[AlamoSpursFan]

I'm not worried. I'm sure Jennifer's Doplar will "nail it" way before it threatens our coast.

Wasn't me...

:lol

[travis2]

I'm not saying it's not cyclical and just for the record, I've never placed the blame on man made global warming. I simply mentoined global warming. There's no denying the tempature of this earth is going up - regardless of the reason - and that will and is having an affect on the storms.


OK, Manny, my bad...I thought that's where you were going.

[Das Texan]

well there is extremely strong evidence regarding man made global warming, which only leads to more extremes in temperatures.

[travis2]

well there is extremely strong evidence regarding man made global warming, which only leads to more extremes in temperatures.

I'm sorry...I disagree with you strongly here.

[MannyIsGod]

The latest GFS has Emily eventually coming ashore just south of Texas. The UKMET - another model - has some weird track way to the north and the other models still have a bit of a more southerly route. I think it's still going to come more north however. I just have a feeling Emily has a date with Texas.

[MannyIsGod]

AT 14/0108Z...908 PM AST...A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KTS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 63 KT...OR 73 MPH...AT THE SURFACE....WHICH IS
ON THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE FORCE. ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENT OF
A DROPSONDE WIND PROFILE TO THE SURFACE INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF
ABOUT 80 KT...OR ABOUT 92 MPH. THIS INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 11 PM AST...0300Z.

Emily is now a hurricane.

[midgetonadonkey]

I'm hoping this shit hits Corpus. I can't wait to get drunk as hell during a big ass storm. I tried during Hurrican Claudette, but it hit just north of us and we didn't even get any rain. Big fucking disappointment.

[Manu20]

Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 13


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 13, 2005


Emily has rapidly intensified into a hurricane this evening. The
first aircraft fix at 2331z indicated the low level center was
beneath the western edge of the deep convection and measured a
central pressure of 1000 mb. 00z Dvorak intensity estimates ranged
from 50 to 65 kt...with the stronger estimates based on a low level
center in the middle of the deep convection. Later recon fixes
showed that the center had reformed to the northeast within the
convection...and the wind and pressure data soon responded. The
pressure has most recently fallen to 992 mb...and the maximum 850
mb flight level wind has been 79 kt...supporting at least 63 kt at
the surface. However...reduction to the surface of a dropsonde
profile just north of the center at 01z supports surface winds of
80 kt...which is the advisory intensity. The intensity forecast is
adjusted upward from the previous advisory...making Emily a major
hurricane by 48 hours. This could be conservative.
Due to the scatter in the recon fixes during the past couple of
hours...initial motion is uncertain but is estimated at 275/16.
Except for a slight northward adjustment to account for the new
position...the track forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory. The NWS models...GFS and GFDL...have changed little
since the previous runs...while the Navy models...GFDN and
NOGAPS...have shifted only slightly to the south. The official
forecast takes Emily west-northwestward across the Caribbean
Sea...in accordance with the tightly clustered dynamical model
guidance.

Forecaster Knabb

[Clandestino]

what is up with Manny "Albert Flores" Salgado lately?

[MannyIsGod]

Models are back to a southerly track.

[Useruser666]

Models are only correct after the storm has passed by.

[MannyIsGod]

Models are only correct after the storm has passed by.
True. I'm still thinking a northword swing. But it's pretty much a consensus among models except for the UKMET, but that one has been WAY off the past 2 runs.

[Hook Dem]

I'm hoping this shit hits Corpus. I can't wait to get drunk as hell during a big ass storm. I tried during Hurrican Claudette, but it hit just north of us and we didn't even get any rain. Big fucking disappointment.
Must not be a property owner. How will you feel when it takes the roof off of your folks house? You need a storm to get drunk? I feel sorry for you!

[midgetonadonkey]

Must not be a property owner. How will you feel when it takes the roof off of your folks house? You need a storm to get drunk? I feel sorry for you!

I'm a proud renter and my folks aren't from around here so no worries here.

[SWC Bonfire]

In related news, I actually got .75" of rain yesterday evening.:tu I saw the storm on radar; it looked like it was about 3 miles wide, so I was lucky. We missed out on a lot of the earlier rains when it was raining in SA & south of town, so I'm glad to finally get some.

[1369]

I'm hoping this shit hits Corpus. I can't wait to get drunk as hell during a big ass storm. I tried during Hurrican Claudette, but it hit just north of us and we didn't even get any rain. Big fucking disappointment.

Ladies and gentelmen of the forum, I give you the youth and future of America.

May God help us all.

[SWC Bonfire]

Does anyone remember Hurricane Carla back in the 1960's? I've heard a lot of stories, mainly because the eye traveled all the way up to my neck of the woods.

[AlamoSpursFan]

what is up with Manny "Albert Flores" Salgado lately?

Manny's the only Meter-ologist in town that's worth a damn.

Sincerely,
Steve Browne

:lol

[CosmicCowboy]

Does anyone remember Hurricane Carla back in the 1960's? I've heard a lot of stories, mainly because the eye traveled all the way up to my neck of the woods.

I saw the aftermath personally in Port Lavaca when I was a kid. Unfuckingbelievable. I remember seeing a huge offshore type cargo ship maybe 200 feet long laying out in a muddy cotton field that was several miles from the ocean. Shrimp boats were scattered everywhere. Lots of slabs and no buildings left. Trust me...nobody wants one like that.

[SWC Bonfire]

Yeah, my grandfather (he's 91) tells me that the gigantic reinforced concrete silo that he used to have at his dairy barn in Sodville was knocked down... pretty unbelieveable.

Evidently, the eye stayed intact and traveled several hundred miles inland.

[CosmicCowboy]

Heres a story from that hurricane...

Remembering killer "Carla"
by Murray Montgomery

Back when I was still working full time for The Gonzales Inquirer newspaper, I would often spend my weekends going through the archives and researching some of the old papers.

Sometimes I just decide to pick a year, and then go through every issue from that time period. The last one I researched was 1961. I really don't know why I picked that year — maybe because that was when I graduated from high school — and most of the memories from that time are good ones.

However, an old Inquirer from September 14, 1961, reminded me of one of the bad memories — one I had forgotten until now.

The story was from the Associated Press (AP) wire service and it was titled: "15-Year-Old Boy Describes Loss Of Family In Storm." And what triggered the bad memory for me was...I knew that boy. As I recall, he and my sister were classmates and friends. The young boy's name was Robert Dunn and his life was indeed a tragic story.

When Hurricane Carla crashed ashore on the Texas coast on September 10-11,1961, I was in the Texas Army National Guard and was going to the Army's armor training school at Ft. Knox, Kentucky. My family lived in Angleton, Texas. Robert Dunn and his family lived south of Angleton, along the banks of Bastrop Bayou.

According to old weather records, Carla had grown so large by September 9, that it enveloped the entire Gulf of Mexico — winds near the center were estimated at 150 mph. On that day a mass evacuation was ordered. It was reported that over half a million coastal residents fled the storm. This early evacuation greatly reduced the number of lives that were lost — records show that 46 died in the storm. Eleven of those who perished were from Robert Dunn's family. This number included members of his uncle John Drvar's family.

Robert's father, R.W. (Shorty) Dunn, felt as if he had been through several storms before and he really wasn't too concerned about this one. Local authorities begged him to leave because his home on Bastrop Bayou was in grave danger. He refused to be evacuated. He was asked let his children come out — again he refused.

When I returned to my National Guard unit in Angleton, several months after the storm, I talked with several of my buddies who were sent out to try to rescue the Dunns.

The guardsmen said they made three attempts to get the Dunn family out. On the third try, they lost a two and a half ton truck in Bastrop Bayou. The driver told me that when they reached a bridge, only one guardrail was sticking out of the water. He had to pick one side or the other, hoping to pick the one with the bridge underneath. His selection was wrong and several soldiers nearly drowned. That was the last attempt to rescue the Dunns.

In the AP story, Robert Dunn said that his father felt that he had been through storms before and Hurricane Carla would be no worse than the others.

The article quoted Robert's description of the event: "He said if it got too bad we would leave," Robert said. "My aunt and uncle lived close to us and when it got pretty bad they came to our house."

"What must have been a tidal wave suddenly covered everything, including the car, and we couldn't leave. Somehow we made it to the attic. All the food we had was a loaf of bread. My share was two slices, but two of the younger children were crying because they were so hungry and I divided my share among them. I didn't feel hungry anyway.

"I think it was early Sunday morning that we got into the attic. We stayed there until the worst part of the storm hit. There was a big wave that came then and we all started to get on the roof. I managed to get up there.

"The wind was blowing really hard then and I tried to reach down and help two of the children up. But something seemed to pull them away from me.

"The last time I saw my parents, mother and dad were holding hands and she was crying."

Robert Dunn was on the roof of his floating home for three days. When the house finally came to rest on land, he walked out. Robert told me that he thought he was miles out in the Gulf of Mexico — because he was surrounded by water. He said he even saw a buoy with a red light on top. What he actually saw was the radio antenna above the Brazoria County Courthouse. The courthouse is five-stories tall.

In 1962, I was working with a survey crew for the Texas Highway Department in Angleton. One job took us to the salt-grass prairie near Bastrop Bayou and where the Dunn family home had been. There were several tall trees in the area, probably 30 to 40 feet in height. Each one of them still had debris from Hurricane Carla hanging from the very tops.

There were beds, refrigerators, stoves, boats, personal items, etc. It was a scary feeling to stand on the ground and realize that the water had actually been that high.

What makes the memory of Robert Dunn even sadder is that the tragedy didn't end with the savage hurricane in 1961. Several years later, this last member of the Dunn family was killed while serving with the military in Vietnam.

[Hook Dem]

Being from Corpus Christi, I remember well Carla 1961, Beulah 1968, & Celia 1970. Only Celia was a direct hit on Corpus but none of them were fun to go through. I went to work for SW Bell in 1962 and needless to say, we were kept busy.

[Shelly]

http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/interactive/weather/0507/path.emily/path.emily.thurs.11am.jpg

[Das Texan]

I'm sorry...I disagree with you strongly here.

as do i to your position.


just so happens that my position is the one that 95% of the global scientists agree on by and large

[travis2]

as do i to your position.


just so happens that my position is the one that 95% of the global scientists agree on by and large

You don't even know my position.

And don't throw around numbers you know not where they came from. Or categories, for that matter.

[SpursWoman]

Isn't one of our forum members in Cancun this week? :wow :wow

[CosmicCowboy]

Being from Corpus Christi, I remember well Carla 1961, Beulah 1968, & Celia 1970. Only Celia was a direct hit on Corpus but none of them were fun to go through. I went to work for SW Bell in 1962 and needless to say, we were kept busy.

I was in the 7th grade when Beulah hit...I was in football practice that day and got a really nasty break on my left leg (very long story)...it broke just a few inches down from my hip and then folded back...my cleats on the bottom of my shoe were touching my nose...I was really fucked up...virtually all of the ambulances in San Antonio had been sent to the coast as part of the federal disaster team...They couldn't get an ambulance and were afraid to move me so I laid out there on the field while the storm hit...torrential rain and probably 60mph winds in San Antonio...they finally got one to pick me up several hours later...way after dark...

[travis2]

I was in the 7th grade when Beulah hit...I was in football practice that day and got a really nasty break on my left leg (very long story)...it broke just a few inches down from my hip and then folded back...my cleats on the bottom of my shoe were touching my nose...I was really fucked up...virtually all of the ambulances in San Antonio had been sent to the coast as part of the federal disaster team...They couldn't get an ambulance and were afraid to move me so I laid out there on the field while the storm hit...torrential rain and probably 60mph winds in San Antonio...they finally got one to pick me up several hours later...way after dark...

So that explains you...:lol

[MannyIsGod]

The next discussion comes out in an hour. That thing is getting stronger every second, I wonder if it's up to Cat 3 year.

[Das Texan]

You don't even know my position.

And don't throw around numbers you know not where they came from. Or categories, for that matter.


ok fine.

what is your position. considering you basically refuted what i said yesterday, i assumed it was the opposite of mine.

you are going to make me go get all my research and update it on this issue arent you?

[SWC Bonfire]

Before y'all get your panties in a wad over global warming, remember that a respectable amount of non-crackpot scientists thought that we were entering an ice age earlier in the century. Some believe the "global warming" data is not as convincing because of this; I believe that we all underestimate the power of nature to change.

[SpursWoman]

I believe that we all underestimate the power of nature to change.


Or overestimate our ability to think we can change it's course. :)

[MannyIsGod]

For the record, Humans far often than not, underestimate the impact their actions have on this world. There is the opposite of course, but not nearly as much as the underestimation.

[Manu20]

The next discussion comes out in an hour. That thing is getting stronger every second, I wonder if it's up to Cat 3 year.
It is now a Cat 3 with winds of 115 mph gust to 140 mph!

[MannyIsGod]

It is now a Cat 3 with winds of 115 mph gust to 140 mph!
Where did you hear that? Last I heard was 110mph winds.

[Manu20]

Where did you hear that? Last I heard was 110mph winds.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_5day.html

[MannyIsGod]

I see. NHC won't update the damn discussion yet.

[cherylsteele]

Being from Corpus Christi, I remember well Carla 1961, Beulah 1968, & Celia 1970. Only Celia was a direct hit on Corpus but none of them were fun to go through. I went to work for SW Bell in 1962 and needless to say, we were kept busy.


Hate to rain on your parade.....but ....Beulah was in 1967 not 1968.

I was looking on line and Emily's track so far is quite similar to Gilbert in 1988.

[MannyIsGod]

Most of the 18Z model runs still show the storm crossing the far northern Yucatan, however
a few models, notably the UKMET, GFS and the GFDL keep the hurricane over
water, passing it through the Yucatan Channel. The GFDL brings the storm up to
CAT 4 intensity, but then slowly weakens it as it moves across the Gulf, finally reaching
the southern Texas coast as a CAT 2 or low end CAT 3 by mid week. Whether or not the
track is correct, the logic for the intensity forecast most certainly is. Once over the Gulf,
water temps have much lower total heat content than that of the Caribbean. The strong
CAT 4 hurricane will overturn the water to great depths, bringing much colder water to
the surface. The lack of a high heat content was ultimately the reason Hurricane Dennis
weakened during the final hours before landfall near Pensacola last week.


Bad bad news for South Texas.

[Manu20]

As of the 10 pm advisory Emily has winds of 125 mph with gusts to 155!!!
And the forecast track puts it just south of Brownsville!

[MannyIsGod]

Emily continues to intensify. Dvorak data T numbers at 00z were 6.0
from all agencies...corresponding to an intensity estimate of 115
kt. Aircraft reconnaissance data during the past couple of hours
indicate that the pressure and winds are not far behind the
satellite signature. The first fix at 2347z included a central
pressure of 962 mb...down 12 mb from about six hours earlier...and
a maximum 700 mb flight level wind of 100 kt in the northwestern
quadrant. The pressure had fallen to 958 mb at 0130z with maximum
flight level winds up to 125 kt in the northeastern quadrant...
supporting the advisory intensity of 110 kt. Not much seems to be
in the way of Emily maintaining major hurricane status...possibly
reaching category four...during its path through the Caribbean Sea.
The GFDL maintains a near-120 kt hurricane for the next three
days...and while the GFDL curiously weakens Emily in the southern
Gulf of Mexico...the SHIPS model forecasts a major hurricane beyond
72 hours...and the official forecast closely follows SHIPS late in
the forecast period.

Although the hurricane took a slight jog to the left...or south...of
the previous forecast track during the past few hours...an initial
motion of 285/17 seems to have resumed. Model guidance is tightly
clustered during the next three days on continuing this general
motion. However...especially beyond that time...the overall
guidance envelope has shifted quite significantly to the north.
The official forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous
track...by an increasing amount beyond 48 hours...but remains on
the left side of the dynamical models.


Forecaster Knabb

[tw05baller]

damn manny say that again in not so smart person terms

[MannyIsGod]

It's getting stronger and heading this way.

[tw05baller]

thank u

[tw05baller]

i seriously think u could take jenniffer broomes job

[tw05baller]

u just got to use the signature bill taylor excessive hand gestures

[travis2]

ok fine.

what is your position. considering you basically refuted what i said yesterday, i assumed it was the opposite of mine.

you are going to make me go get all my research and update it on this issue arent you?

I said I disagreed with you. That only implies the opposite if there are two possible sides to this issue.

Does my disagreeing with you mean that I think global warming is not happening? No, because the issue is not black and white. Further, even if global warming is occurring, it does not mean that human activity is necessarily the cause.

As it turns out...I am currently undecided but open-minded on both parts of that question...whether it's occurring and whether human activity is the cause.

The high-and-mighty IPCC has already been proven to be a politically-motivated body, less interested in the science involved than with public policy. See, for example, their treatment of Chris Landsea, a (former) member of the IPCC and subject matter expert in hurricanes and their formation...and how members of his committee used their positions to push positions in the media that had no basis in current science. Further, there is definitely a bias towards CO2 release as "causing" global warming. Why? Because the US is the major contributor. They are completely ignoring the effects of methane (CH4)...and why? Because the US doesn't produce much atmospheric methane...but Europe does. Gee, coincidence? I think not.

More to the science...I don't have a background in atmospheric science. However, if you check the backgrounds of your purported "95%", you'll see that most of them don't either. Science...yes, for the vast majority. But not directly related to atmospheric studies.

My background is in engineering...measurement and data analysis, specifically. I've spent the better part of 20 years doing field test/measurement and/or analyzing the results. And I'm currently working on a PhD with a concentration in statistical signal processing.

When I dig into something at least resembling a measurement report (not a political summary) I don't come to the conclusion that there is anything near enough evidence. And certainly there is no discussion of the uncertainties involved in either the measurements or the models. (I am using uncertainty here in its mathematical sense...and not to be confused with accuracy, precision, or error, which are different (but related) concepts)

Are there some trends? Sure...and they are not as severe as the majority of models claim they should be. Further, the modeling of the upper atmosphere response has been completely off. There has been discussion over the proper way to calibrate different satellite-based temperature measurements. There is disagreement over what some measurements mean, or when values are agreed upon, how they got to be that way.

And what of the models...how good are they? Is science driving the models...or are the models driving the science? I have nothing against models...they are necessary in a case like this where the system under measurement is so complex and non-linear...but we need to remember that the model is not the system.

In short...I am open-minded on the subject, but I refuse to be bull-rushed into some apocalyptic panic by politicians and other politically-driven puppets who have pushing their agenda placed higher on the priority list than advancing the science.

[Mr Dio]

If you remember in the previous hurricane thread, someone mentioned that the energy was gone from the Gulf and the Carribean due to Dennis. I said that was incorect and it seems that water temp readings are proving this.


Well, have read & just saw on tv as well that if another storm happens in the Gulf this season it will all but drain the Gulf of the energy needed to sustain a high Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane.

Hate to make an ass of my son but...

I beleive it was posted that much/most of the energy was gone from the GULF.
Was the Carribean mentioned?..Please review.

I also think ANOTHER STORM means, another FUCKIN' storm.


Dennis at landfall was a strong catagory 3 and you all saw what that did.

Dennis came ashore & dissipated rather rapidly.
Losses were MUCH lower than expected.

So, in summation......With Emily coming from the Yucatan area into the GULF it should drain the remaining energy needed to strengthen/build a major Hurricane.
Hindsight is 20/20 but I should placed "forms" in place of "happens."

Emily can get as strong as it wants, because she is the storm I was speaking of.


ANOTHER
one more
an additional
a different
not the same
one of the same sort
some other

It is going to be interesting to see if someone on this board steps up to the plate & CORRECTS himself.

[Mr Dio]

BTW, The Yucatan has jack shit to do with where this thing goes.

You're right about that CC. The Yucatan will weaken anything that goes over it

OK, so is it heads or tails? Black or White? Right or Wrong?
Oh well, like I said, hindsight is 20/20.

[Mr Dio]

drain the energy?

Nice edit, try the ENTIRE sentence.

[spurster]

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/adc_hurr_images/2005/ae/UHAE_2_640X480.GIF

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tropical/map_tropprjpath05_ltst_5nhato_enus_600x405.jpg

[MannyIsGod]

Dio, you're wrong.

#1. It's July. Peak heating of the Oceans in the Northern Hemisphere doesn't occur untill September. There is more than enough energy left to fuel catagory 4 and 5 storms and there will be after Emily.

What a hurricane of that force does, is bring water up from lower depths that is colder which in turn mixes with the warm water at the surface bringing down Sea Surface Temps (SST). While that is going to have an effect and leave what is known as a cold wake behind, it is a temporary effect, especially when you consider how early in the season it is. There is no draining involved, it is simply the mixing in of coler water.

In July, there have only been 4 major hurricanes including this season. We've had half of the strong hurricanes in July in one year because of the high SST and other factors. As the season goes on, the tempature in the Gulf is only going to rise.

Whats more, is that there has been an underestimation of tempatures in the ocean so far this year. While the models right now are saying that Emily will drop in strength upon entering the Gulf, they might be working with false information. If thats the case then Emily might not lose as much strength.

Basically, you are flat out wrong. The Gufl can support more cat 4/5 stroms within this year. It may not be until the late season, but thats when they usually form to begin with.

#2. The Yucatan has no effect on the steering of storms and where they go. Yes, a storm will weaken if it goes over the Yucutan because it is over land, but that does not mean that its going to go south.

[Ishta]

I guess we will all just have to wait and see what Emily will do.....Hopefully when she hits Texas(and I do think she will, though I hope I am wrong) the loss of life is not to great.

[Horry For 3!]

I remember the last Hurricane that hit in South Texas a couple years ago. Me and my friends were out swimming in it hahaha. It was pretty fun.

[MannyIsGod]

Dio, blow me!


:)

DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 135
MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS NOW A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. NOAA BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


There's your catagory 4 hurricane less than 6 hours after you were talking shit.

[Mr Dio]

Well, have read & just saw on tv as well that if another storm happens in the Gulf this season it will all but drain the Gulf of the energy needed to sustain a high Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane.

Read it again Manny.
Like I posted, this is the storm that will drain the enegy that is needed to support/sustain any more hurricanes of this magnitude.
AND, Dennis was a blowhard, not nearly like the 3 that hit Fla last yr.
UNK what type of dmg this one will do but Texas will do alright..prob better than Fla did last yr.

I still want that dildo!

[MannyIsGod]

I know what you're saying. But it's wrong. The cold wake left behind by either of these 2 storms will last a short time but the Gulf will be more than capable of supporting major (> cat 3) storms again this season. In fact, it won't take long at all for the gulf to recover.

Where are you getting that from?

[Mr Dio]

There's your catagory 4 hurricane less than 6 hours after you were talking shit.

I never said that this one wouldn't be a CAT 4.
As I posted, if another..(I believe this is the only one we've had after Dennis, on this planet at least)

CAT 4 or CAT 5 Manny based on my WORK experience what matters most are prob the storm surge & the make-up of bldgs where it makes landfall. If a CAT 5 w/the highest winds on record hit a mostly low density popluation area than it is better than a CAT 3 w/a high storm surge in a densely populated area.

[Mr Dio]

supporting major (> cat 3)

Why don't we just call a CAT 1 major?

[Mr Dio]

Where are you getting that from?

Once again mijo..I posted it just as I had the tv on either (CNN/Weather Channel/MSN)..READ it. Some guy was talking about that subject & the channel had a little scrolling factoid/opinion thing on the bottom of the screen.

I'm willing to bet that guy(whoever the fuck he was/is) doesn't just cut & paste his info but actually can/does write the stuff ANOTHER poster here cuts & pastes.

[MannyIsGod]

I never said that this one wouldn't be a CAT 4.
As I posted, if another..(I believe this is the only one we've had after Dennis, on this planet at least)

CAT 4 or CAT 5 Manny based on my WORK experience what matters most are prob the storm surge & the make-up of bldgs where it makes landfall. If a CAT 5 w/the highest winds on record hit a mostly low density popluation area than it is better than a CAT 3 w/a high storm surge in a densely populated area.

No doubt.

Now I have to go play ball. I may never have fullfiled your real world fantasy of giving it to you in the ass, but I'll be happy to continue the weather reaming later.

Biaaaaaaaaaaatch

[Mr Dio]

I may never have fullfiled your real world fantasy of giving it to you in the ass,

May never have??
"member when Jess was in H-town & twas a drak & stormy night.....

[MannyIsGod]

Well, he if can write hurricane wind speeds, he's a genius!

Or maybe he just licks his finger, sticks it up in the air, and spits out the correct wind speed?

I figured you wanted the analysis of the NWS, not mine. But I'm amatuer at best, but I know that if you search all the information far and wide on this here interweb, you won't find anything supporting what you are saying.


:lol

[Mr Dio]

you won't find anything supporting what you are saying.

As I said, I posted what was being said on the tv at the time. I don't claim to know anything about the weather except that rain is almost as wet as your bung when you see Paki in hot pants & a wig.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Sweet, I am supposed to be visiting clients in Corpus and Victoria next Tuesday - Friday.

Looks like I may be staying in Big D :lol

[Manu20]

As of 1 pm hurricane Emily has winds of 155 mph!!

[MannyIsGod]

Texas is not out of the woods yet, but it's looking less likely. However, just a few more degrees turn north, and Emily would pass through the Yucatan Channel and not the actual Yucatan. In that case? All bets are off. It'll be an interesting 36 hours.

[Mr Dio]

I just read & saw on tv that Emily might not be as strong as we think when it leaves the Yucatan.
Emmie might stay for 2-3 days in Cancun & take the Chichen Itza tour, visit Isla de Mujeres & take the Booze Cruise. This should leave her in a somewhat weakened state & she might go sleep it off in the South Pacific or mountains of Mexico.
As a precaution President Fox is advising all cartels to tightly double wrap all shipments & enclose instructions for drying the product out when it is received by consumers.

[PM5K]

As a precaution President Fox is advising all cartels to tightly double wrap all shipments & enclose instructions for drying the product out when it is received by consumers.

LOL....

[MannyIsGod]

:lol

[Ginofan]

I just got back from South Padre like an hour ago. This morning as around 10ish, as we were checking out of our condos, the manager was on the phone with some official commerce person or whatever and he said that he was told that Emily was supposed to hit 60-70 miles south of Port Isabel, but that the Island (SPI) would be hit by the strong wind side.

That forecast has probably changed by now but I just thought I throw the info I was told out there.

[MannyIsGod]

Good and bad news.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/17...JUST A LITTLE RIGHT OF 6 HR AGO.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...LIKELY
DUE TO BETTER MODEL ANALYSES OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ITS SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON THE
SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE NOW CALLING FOR MORE
OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS
CAUSES THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO FORECAST LESS OF A WESTWARD TURN WHILE
EMILY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH CAUSES THE MODELS TO
FORECAST LANDFALL FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS MOVED A LITTLE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE GUIDANCE SHIFT AND IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE INSTEAD OF THE NORTHERN EDGE. THIS CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK INCREASES THE THREAT TO SOUTHERN TEXAS.

GIVEN THE COOLING TOPS AND THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN...A BURST OF INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IF AN OUTER EYEWALL IS FORMING THIS BECOMES
LESS LIKELY. EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...THEN
RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOW MUCH EMILY COULD
INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF WILL DEPEND ON JUST WHAT STRUCTURE EMERGES
FROM YUCATAN...SO THERE IS A LARGER THAN NORMAL POSSIBLE ERROR ON
THE 24-48 HR INTENSITY FORECASTS. NEVERTHELESS...EMILY IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH AMERICAN MAINLAND AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE.


The good news is that storm has weakend somewhat. However, this storm is still strong as all hell is now bearing down right on Cozumel.

Today, Emily started going through an eye wall replacement cycle. Basically thats where the storm recycles itself, kind of a reboot. Emily took 24 hours last time it did that but emerged a much stronger storm. This time it's probably not going to be able to finish reestablishing the eye before coming ashore, and that will probably mean it will not reach the same power it had yesterday when it comes ashore.

What is really worse however, is that the storm has started to turn more to the north. The models are picking up on the weather pattern here over Texas and appear to have a much better feel on what is going on in the atmosphere.

To put it in other words, the low pressure that we have over us right that is causing rain, is going to pull Emily torwards it. It is much stronger than the forecasts had anticipated and is having a much stronger effect on the track of Emily than previously thought.

What this means is that the chances of the storm coming ashore in Texas are going up. The stronger the trough gets, and the longer it is in place, the more of a chance the storm is going to make landfall on our coast as opposed to Mexico.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Good and bad news.



The good news is that storm has weakend somewhat. However, this storm is still strong as all hell is now bearing down right on Cozumel.

Today, Emily started going through an eye wall replacement cycle. Basically thats where the storm recycles itself, kind of a reboot. Emily took 24 hours last time it did that but emerged a much stronger storm. This time it's probably not going to be able to finish reestablishing the eye before coming ashore, and that will probably mean it will not reach the same power it had yesterday when it comes ashore.

What is really worse however, is that the storm has started to turn more to the north. The models are picking up on the weather pattern here over Texas and appear to have a much better feel on what is going on in the atmosphere.

To put it in other words, the low pressure that we have over us right that is causing rain, is going to pull Emily torwards it. It is much stronger than the forecasts had anticipated and is having a much stronger effect on the track of Emily than previously thought.

What this means is that the chances of the storm coming ashore in Texas are going up. The stronger the trough gets, and the longer it is in place, the more of a chance the storm is going to make landfall on our coast as opposed to Mexico.

In other words, don't drive on the lower part of I-10 just north of downtown later on this week.

[Shelly]

Interesting...I was wondering if we'd get anything out of Emily.

[tw05baller]

yeah looks like she might leave texas alone

[MannyIsGod]

Honestly, chances are that we here in San Antonio won't see much form Emily. Even the models that bring her torwards the valley kick her out west into Mexico then Arizona (No longer much of anything but moisture).

But to be fair as well, the models have predicted this storm about as well as Whottt predicted Shane Heal as an allstar. They are always one step behind what it does and how things are effecting it. I woudlnt' be at all suprised to see the trough above us right now to pull it farther to the north and in turn pull it up torwards San Antonio and then shoot it off to the north around the high to the east.

It's really interesting that the weather above us for the next 12 hours or so and how it plays out could have a big impact on where this storm goes.

[MannyIsGod]

This is from our local NWS office and their forcast



12Z MAV GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE DRIER ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWA WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROF WEAKENING AND MOVING NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CURRENT POPS IN THE FORECAST REFLECT A WETTER
ATMOSPHERE AND ONGOING RADAR OBSERVATIONS ALSO REFLECT THIS.


The model runs at 7am this morning are saying the trough is going to kick out to the north and east by Tuesday, but the observations they have point to it sticking around a bit longer and being stronger.

It's really a crapshoot right now, and all we can do is sit and watch but I woudln't be suprised if I end up going down to the valley in the next couple of days to help family board up.

[Shelly]

Well, this is the next 10 days according to weather.com. Should be interesting

10 day forcast (http://www.weather.com/activities/homeandgarden/garden/weather/tenday.html?locid=78254&from=36hr_fcst10DayLink_garden)

[Horry For 3!]

Hurricane Emily is not Texas bound anymore.

[MannyIsGod]

Another thing to consider as well, is the further north the system gets the less time its going to spend over land on the Yucatan. If it goes much further north, it won't spend much time over land at all and it won't weaken all that much.

[hunter-thereckoning]

i was in cancun a week ago

[thispego]

hunter the reckoning, you dont even know where cancun is

[SWC Bonfire]

hunter the reckoning, you dont even know where cancun is

Sure he does... it's just north of Uvalde on the Frio River :lol

[CosmicCowboy]

Sure he does... it's just north of Uvalde on the Frio River :lol

:lmao

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Sure he does... it's just north of Uvalde on the Frio River :lol

:rollin

Damn, I've been there too many times as a kid.

/Born in Uvalde.

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao @ Cancun on the Frio.

Does anyone who went tubing out there remeber the 5 foot waterfall on that route? Hurt my ass more than once on that thing!

[AlamoSpursFan]

I'll have a firsthand report tomorrow night...

I'm taking a load of chips to McAllen at 10am tomorrow.

Does anybody have some hip waders I could borrow? And maybe a boat anchor?

:lol

[MannyIsGod]

Damn dude. I would not want to be on 281 with a trailer in the valley going north or south. Wind will be around 30-40 mph with gusts higher.

This thing is going to hit Mexico, but the thinking is that the moisture is going to get blown off the top by the flow and funneld back into Texas somewhat.

In other words, San Antonio will see chances for rain Wednesday and Thursday thanks to Emily, but nothing really associated with the Hurricane itself. The valley will get some TS force winds and a bunch of rain, but nothing they can't handle.

Sucks for Mexico, though.

[bigzak25]

In other words, San Antonio will see chances for rain Wednesday and Thursday thanks to Emily, but nothing really associated with the Hurricane itself.



cool. that's really all i needed to know. thanks. :tu :smokin

[AlamoSpursFan]

Darn. They changed my run. Now I'm taking a Harlingen load at 4 am. Guess I'll miss the festivities unless Emily gets a wild hair up her eye-wall and steps on the gas...

:lol

[Johnny Tightlips]

i forecast alotta things..

[Bo Malette]

i forecast my foot goin up your ass

[Ginofan]

Looking at satellite images this morning it looks like it's going to go to Mexico.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Looking at satellite images this morning it looks like it's going to go to Mexico.

I can feel the hurt you have inside. :lol

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah, even if it doesn't turn anymore to the west - and it more than likely will - it's not going to make landfall on the Texas coast. The further it waits to make that turn though, the worse its going to be for the Valley.

[Ginofan]

I can feel the hurt you have inside. :lol

:lol

[Manu20]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUIR.JPG

What do you think of this Manny? Two new storms :wow

[desflood]

It's raining in Leon Valley (I think this is the fourth day in a row). Woohoo!!

[sa_butta]

Here comes the rain Im on I10 and Dezavala.

[cherylsteele]

It looks like the Texas coast may have another storm next week in Gert.

and Florida will deal with Franklin.

The odds are not too good for the Texas coast to dodge the bullets this year.

[Shelly]

According to Steve Browne, the trade winds are blowing directly at Texas, so the odds are good.

[MannyIsGod]

Actually, the system in the Carribean is tearing Franklin apart. I think the one in the Carribean will survive, but not Franklin.

[AlamoSpursFan]

According to Steve Browne, the trade winds are blowing directly at Texas, so the odds are good.

According to Steve Browne, Larry Brown will be the coach of the Pistons next year...

:lol