Why is he such a genius, NBA forum?

[midnightpulp]

http://oi39.tinypic.com/dmedr8.jpg

His predictive powers combined with his work for the Memphis Grizzlies, which saw the franchise have their most successful season ever, pretty much confirms his PER is the stat at the moment. Of course, until he develops something better.

[HarlemHeat37]

:lol Al-Quobe is going to hate the future of the NBA, centered around advanced stats, tbh..

Quantifiable logic > killer instinct and will to win:lol..

[Raven]

the question should be "why is almost everybody such an idiot?" it was pretty clear from the start that with a hardenless methlahoma, the spurs were going to the finals.

[midnightpulp]

More:

http://deadspin.com/5921063/john-hollinger-had-the-best-nba-preseason-predictions-jon-barrys-were-nearly-the-worst

:lol John Barry
:lol An "NBA person" who "played the game"
:lol Takes and predictions of "NBA people" are always the worst
:lol at anyone who uses the opinions of "NBA people" in an argument

[DAF86]

I'm a Hollinger/advanced stats fan but tbf, he may have gotten lucky with Westbrook's injury.

[midnightpulp]

I'm a Hollinger/advanced stats fan but tbf, he may have gotten lucky with Westbrook's injury.

No one knows how that series would've played out, though. Last year, Harden was the ultimate difference maker in the series. Not to mention, the Spurs defense is far superior this year and probably doesn't let Ibaka and Collison light them up from the mid-range.

[scanry]

No one knows how that series would've played out, though. Last year, Harden was the ultimate difference maker in the series. Not to mention, the Spurs defense is far superior this year and probably doesn't let Ibaka and Collison light them up from the mid-range.

Exactly. The Spurs could've taken them in 6 tbh.

[BUMP]

:lol nobody picked the Thunder?

[midnightpulp]

:lol nobody picked the Thunder?

They did, actually. :lol I cut off the image a quarter of the way because I liked the way the Spurs' logo contrasted against the sea of Lakers logos.

[DMC]

Even John didn't pick his team. No wonder they lost.

[whitemamba]

Were those picks prior to the injuries?

[midnightpulp]

Were those picks prior to the injuries?

Yeah. But the Lakers played like total ass when healthy, anyhow. So it doesn't matter. Lakers weren't doing shit this year, healthy or otherwise.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

I'm pretty sure I read the Lakers were 0-7 when their starting lineup was completely healthy :lol

[midnightpulp]

I'm pretty sure I read the Lakers were 0-7 when their starting lineup was completely healthy :lol

And Nash is addition by subtraction at this point, so it's funny when Lakerfan was using his absence as an excuse for their troubles.

[jeebus]

Were those picks prior to the injuries?

http://espn.go.com/nba/preview2012/story/_/id/8517161/2012-13-nba-predictions-western-conference-champion

Published Oct 30. Harden trade was Oct 28 so I'm guessing everyone updated their shit before it was published. But these picks were after that kick ass preseason the lakers had, as mentioned above

[Killakobe81]

PER sure helped in the WCF ...

I am not going to completely knock PER (though not a huge fan) but I have looked at none of those stats but I bet it will tell me ...

a. Parker was the best player in that series and fairly consistent
b. Duncan shat on the Memphis front-line much more than his 15 ppg or even any advanced metric could show ...
c. Spurs were excellent defending and Grizz sucky at exploiting post-ups
d. Grizz sucked from 3's ...
e. Spurs were better from 3 but not great
f. Spurs had less TO's
g. Manu was inconsistent ...
f. Zbo and Marc played shitty (relatively) especially Zbo ...

Stats should just be used to help tell a story but can never replace what we see, especially if you; have no rooting interest in the outcome. I like the Grizz (memphis is part of the region I cover for work, SA no longer is) but they have no one on that team I admire more than Duncan or Pop. It also helps if you know what to look for and understand some basic plays.

[whitemamba]

http://espn.go.com/nba/preview2012/story/_/id/8517161/2012-13-nba-predictions-western-conference-champion

Published Oct 30. Harden trade was Oct 28 so I'm guessing everyone updated their shit before it was published. But these picks were after that kick ass preseason the lakers had, as mentioned above

:lol

[Kidd K]

Completely unsurprised to see Tim Legler and Jon Barry at the bottom of that list. Two of the NBA worst analysts imo. They're constantly getting things wrong half the time like they're just flipping a coin or some shit to determine their pick.

I've seen people do love to shit on Hollinger all across just about any basketball forum. . .and those people are usually the ones with the shittiest takes who only pick the obvious/safe outcomes and are wrong as often as anyone who isn't trolling.

[midnightpulp]

PER sure helped in the WCF ...

I am not going to completely knock PER (though not a huge fan) but I have looked at none of those stats but I bet it will tell me ...

a. Parker was the best player in that series and fairly consistent
b. Duncan shat on the Memphis front-line much more than his 15 ppg or even any advanced metric could show ...
c. Spurs were excellent defending and Grizz sucky at exploiting post-ups
d. Grizz sucked from 3's ...
e. Spurs were better from 3 but not great
f. Spurs had less TO's
g. Manu was inconsistent ...
f. Zbo and Marc played shitty (relatively) especially Zbo ...

Stats should just be used to help tell a story but can never replace what we see, especially if you; have no rooting interest in the outcome. I like the Grizz (memphis is part of the region I cover for work, SA no longer is) but they have no one on that team I admire more than Duncan or Pop. It also helps if you know what to look for and understand some basic plays.

But it did. The Spurs had a higher team PER than the Grizzlies.

That said, I'm only exalting PER at the best "statistical" tool, not the best player evaluation tool, which would combine PER (raw per game stats are antiquated and only a moron would use them today for substantial player analysis) and some other advanced metrics with an objective as possible "eye test."

[Jeff Leppard]

Were those picks prior to the injuries?

:lmao Lakerfan reaching. Your team sucked all year. The Lakers were going nowhere with, or without a healthy Bean.

:lol grasping at straws

[whitemamba]

:lmao Lakerfan reaching. Your team sucked all year. The Lakers were going nowhere with, or without a healthy Bean.

:lol grasping at straws

http://possumstew.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/negrodamus.jpg

is this you?

[Killakobe81]

But it did. The Spurs had a higher team PER than the Grizzlies.

That said, I'm only exalting PER at the best "statistical" tool, not the best player evaluation tool, which would combine PER (raw per game stats are antiquated and only a moron would use them today for substantial player analysis) and some other advanced metrics with an objective as possible "eye test."

Ok they did have abetter team PER but did I gain any insight from that fact that I could not readily see? Spurs swept the Grizz ... mostly because their post play was nullified, largely because the Spurs fronted the post, pressured the entry passer and helped off baseline shooters in the corners. Grizz could not turnover the Spurs at a rate they were successful with vs. OKC or LAC ...Grizz also missed late game Ft's and their best players Zbo and Marc were horrendus and average while Parker was amazing and Duncan clutch and efficient especially in the two OT games.

Dont need PEr, win shares or true shooting %'s to tell me any of that ... besides the end of game summaries i have not peeked at one box score ...just stuff I observed.

[midnightpulp]

Ok they did have abetter team PER but did I gain any insight from that fact that I could not readily see? Spurs swept the Grizz ... mostly because their post play was nullified, largely because the Spurs fronted the post, pressured the entry passer and helped off baseline shooters in the corners. Grizz could not turnover the Spurs at a rate they were successful with vs. OKC or LAC ...Grizz also missed late game Ft's and their best players Zbo and Marc were horrendus and average while Parker was amazing and Duncan clutch and efficient especially in the two OT games.

Dont need PEr, win shares or true shooting %'s to tell me any of that ... besides the end of game summaries i have not peeked at one box score ...just stuff I observed.

PER "measures" and not necessarily "describes." Like any stat, it can't tell you "why" a player performed the way he did, only "how" he performed, and for that, it's much more accurate than raw per game stats.

[hater]

:lmao Lakerfan reaching. Your team sucked all year. The Lakers were going nowhere with, or without a healthy Bean.

:lol grasping at straws