Zac Lowe's NBA Finals Preview: The Big Questions About Small Ball

[tesseractive]

This feels like an NBA Finals two years in the making, and not only because the Thunder knocked the league off this course last season by pummeling the Spurs. The Heat are a much different team than they were in LeBron James's first season on the beach. Miami carved out a new identity, in part by applying basic San Antonio principles to its own starry personnel — careful spacing, whip-smart ball movement, smaller lineups, and buckets of 3-point shots.
The Spurs traded for Kawhi Leonard (http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9316310/analyzing-kawhi-leonard-george-hill-trade-2013-conference-finals) precisely so he could guard players like James and Kevin Durant, the latter of whom might well be playing today if not for Russell Westbrook's injury. They patiently integrated Tiago Splitter over three seasons so that he could form a two-man rim protection squad with Tim Duncan and make plays on offense against speedy NBA defenses. They allowed role players like Leonard and Danny Green dollops of freedom so they might be ready to do just a bit more than hit spot-up jumpers when elite defenses forced playmaking duties upon them.
And so here we are: the NBA Finals, with two great teams that have spent years building to this moment and building toward this specific potential matchup. Below are some key questions and trends to watch, with the aid of extensive film study and conversations with coaches, executives, scouts, and players around the league over the last week.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9343323/previewing-heat-spurs-2013-nba-finals

Spoiler: he has Heat in 6. Of course, he had Memphis in 6 too. :lol

[FromWayDowntown]

I think Heat in 6 is a perfectly reasonable pick; I actually think Heat in 5 would be reasonable too.

Frankly, if the Spurs can't punish the Heat's smallball and are forced to match down to it, I'd be surprised (pleasantly) if the Spurs managed to win even 2 games in this series. If they can punish the Heat in small ball situations, I think Spurs in 6 becomes a reasonable possibility as well.

Lowe also asks a pertinent question about whether the Spurs role players -- basically, everyone outside of Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, and perhaps Leonard -- can make the plays that the Heat are going to force them to make in this series. For all the talk of experience, the Spurs have only 4 guys who've ever been this far (and Bonner has never played a Finals minute) while everyone who gets minutes for the Heat with the exception of Birdman has been here. There's something to be said for being calm on the stage and I'd expect a lot of nerves from this Spurs bunch in Game 1 (to go along with a lot of rust).

[Mugen]

Heat in 6/7 is perfectly reasonsabl tbh. But if the Spurs split the first two then the Heat are in trouble and I think it would take them 7 games to win the series.

Lowe picked against us in the Grizz series IIRC so i'm perfectly happy with him betting against the Spurs in the Finals.

[Spur|n|Austin]

Good take by Lowe, Spurs should and will continue to be the sure bet to lose the series. Our role players and Kawhi's handling of Lebron are the biggest factors, imo.

[FromWayDowntown]

Watching the pressers today, one thing that does seem to be worth noting is how loose the Spurs (at least Popovich, Parker, and Duncan) seem to be. It's almost as if they're drinking the whole situation in. They know (they have to know) that they're not favored by many to win this and, like everything else they do, the best approach here is to just compete and do the things they're supposed to do. But if the experienced hands can exude that sort of calm and approach this with joy rather than anxiety, maybe -- just maybe -- that seeps down through the ranks and the inexperienced Spurs can just relax and play.

[tesseractive]

Lowe picked against us in the Grizz series IIRC so i'm perfectly happy with him betting against the Spurs in the Finals.
Yeah, this is what I meant -- I didn't mean that only an idiot could pick the Heat.

[tesseractive]

Fact'

In this run of the "not one Not two...." superfreinds they have lost either game one or two of a seven game series 5 times and had an OT1 including two losses in FINALS series.

Do you honestly think that the Spurs aren't going to steal game one?
Odds point to YES.
Game 1 will be hard, because it will be hard to match their intensity after the long break. The key is to stay with them through the first half, and if we can do it, our chances of winning it in the second half are great.

[Johnny RIngo]

Good article but it doesn't make me feel very confident about our chances. Spurs need their role players to show up(which is a tall order). The Heat can get by with everybody playing like ass as long as Lebron/Wade/Bosh pay well. Spurs don't have that luxury

[FromWayDowntown]

Good article but it doesn't make me feel very confident about our chances. Spurs need their role players to show up(which is a tall order). The Heat can get by with everybody playing like ass as long as Lebron/Wade/Bosh pay well. Spurs don't have that luxury

That's true. It's far more likely (I think) that the Heat will be able to take away the subtle things that Duncan, Parker, or Ginobili do so well than it is that the Spurs will be able to take away the sheer abilities of James or Wade (and perhaps Bosh). Lebron has shown before that he can single-handedly beat a team; even one that is hellbent on stopping him.

[EVAY]

I have long thought that our role players will likely be our Achilles' heel in this series, and that is definitely what other people are focusing on, and it is only reasonable for them to do that.

Last year our role players failed in the WCF; for many it was the first time they had gotten that far. This year, they were more experienced, and we took out the other teams' role players who hadn't gotten as far before (think Memphis and GS).

This year our role players will be playing for the first time on a stage as foreign to them as the SCF was for Memphis' role players and the Conference Semis were for GS.

That is why it is so reasonable for people to question our role players...they are a total unknown in this situation, and it is likely to make more than one of them freeze up. It will be a hell of a statement if Tim, Tony, Manu and Pop can give our guys the inner strength to be as good as they can be on a stage bigger than they have ever been on in their young lives, playing against a group of guys who with, the exception of Anderson, were all there last year.

[Mugen]

Danny/Kawhi/Tiago all stepped it up in the Grizzlies series which gives me hope tbh.

I just don't think Wade is healthy and if he plays like the Pacers series then I like our chances. LeBron & Bosh will be a load but I don't think think they get by if Wade is just a jumpshooter.

[tesseractive]

That's true. It's far more likely (I think) that the Heat will be able to take away the subtle things that Duncan, Parker, or Ginobili do so well than it is that the Spurs will be able to take away the sheer abilities of James or Wade (and perhaps Bosh). Lebron has shown before that he can single-handedly beat a team; even one that is hellbent on stopping him.
The biggest key on offense, I think, will be whether we can stay within the scheme or whether Miami can break it down. Last year, we saw OKC find ways to keep flowing to the point of attack and leave selected guys open who either couldn't get their shot off before their defender recovered or just plain wilted under the pressure. Against Memphis we were able to use their aggressiveness against them with smart playcalling, and we were able to keep things flowing well enough that our role players never felt suffocated by the pressure.

Miami plays smart as well as aggressive on defense, so I doubt they'll make the same mistakes Memphis did, but this also isn't the same squad that OKC was able to shut down last year. I'm sure there will be times when Miami's defense will get the upper hand, but we just have to keep finding ways to counter that put our guys in position to succeed. At least in the main 7-man rotation, I think whether our role players "step up" or "choke" will be more a function of whether they can get good looks than of the traditional "testicular fortitude" type analysis.

[DPG21920]

Good article but it doesn't make me feel very confident about our chances. Spurs need their role players to show up(which is a tall order). The Heat can get by with everybody playing like ass as long as Lebron/Wade/Bosh pay well. Spurs don't have that luxury

Disagree. Spurs are not Indy. Spurs are about as good defensively as INDY and far more talented offensively. Those games where Indy couldn't punish MIA with Bosh/Ray/Wade being no shows won't fly here. MIA will have to play considerably better to beat SA than they did against INDY

[DPG21920]

Even if their big 3 play great (then the Spurs would obviously be in trouble) if MIA's role players struggle like before (Battier/Ray especially) Spurs can still compete.

[LakerHater]

342351586649075712

[DPG21920]

Good. That is something the Spurs do very well. Indy has Hibbert. Spurs have Duncan AND Tiago. If we can force them into two great rim defenders they will struggle. They will also probably get discouraged and settle for jumpers after a while you'd hope and that would allow for a smaller guy (Green) to check Bron at times which is useful.

[tesseractive]

Good. That is something the Spurs do very well. Indy has Hibbert. Spurs have Duncan AND Tiago. If we can force them into two great rim defenders they will struggle. They will also probably get discouraged and settle for jumpers after a while you'd hope and that would allow for a smaller guy (Green) to check Bron at times which is useful.
The key against Miami is keeping your rim defenders in a position where they can affect the play. When the Heat put a lineup on the floor where everyone can shoot, that's harder to do -- which is why Haslem was getting so many great looks.

[DPG21920]

You live with Haslem and other hitting shots. The fact of the matter is Duncan protects the rim every bit as good as Hibbert did and Tiago is there to help much more than West was.

If MIA is making 3's you lose. They have not been doing that lately though.

[Baam]

Good. That is something the Spurs do very well. Indy has Hibbert. Spurs have Duncan AND Tiago. If we can force them into two great rim defenders they will struggle. They will also probably get discouraged and settle for jumpers after a while you'd hope and that would allow for a smaller guy (Green) to check Bron at times which is useful.

Except Tiago won't stay on the court if Miami plays small because he's really not close to West on offense.

I think the key of the series is Boris who can keep up with small ball PFs as well as anyone and provide playmaking to beat the double teams they love to send, there's a lot of comparisons being made with 2012/2013 and 2004/2005 and Horry was the difference in 2005 and I think it's gonna be a very close series once again with Boris being a huge factor.

[DPG21920]

Except Tiago won't stay on the court if Miami plays small because he's really not close to West on offense.

I think the key of the series is Boris who can keep up with small ball PFs as well as anyone and provide playmaking to beat the double teams, there's a lot of comparisons being made with 2012/2013 and 2004/2005 and Horry was the difference in 2005 and I think it's gonna be a very close series once again with Boris being a huge factor.

Tiago plays more of the Hibbert role on offense, Tim the West role. West was pretty poor overall offensively for INDY too. Not like Tiago has to do too much to out produce him points-wise/efficiency-wise. Tiago won't score like Hibbert did consistently, but should be effective. If Tim can out produce West, both with his mid-range game and at the rim, then net, the Spurs FC should give you the 30 PPG or so that West/Hibbert did. Difference is, Spurs have way more other weapons too.

The thing about West/Tiago is not so much offensively but defensively. West is a solid, more mobile defender. He was able to effectively stay out on Bosh other players. Can Tiago do that if need be? That is more of a question IMO.

[Baam]

I don't see Tiago as the kind of guy you can give the ball to in the post and expect him to bully his man like West and Hibbert can, he's all about the PnR and I don't think his post game is good enough but I'd love to be proven wrong tbh, I hope he can be a factor.

[DPG21920]

But I agree about Boris. He in theory should play a large role. I am also banking of the fact Pop saw what staying big vs MIA did and doesn't just go small all the time. Spurs win a lot more with Tiago on the floor (In these playoffs, in Spurs wins Tiago has played 25MPG. In loses, 12 MPG.)

[DPG21920]

I don't see Tiago as the kind of guy you can give the ball to in the post and expect him to bully his man like West and Hibbert can, he's all about PnR and I don't think his post game is good enough but I'd love to be proven wrong tbh, I hope he can be a factor.

I just look at it from a net perspective. Hibbert was great, West was meh. If Duncan can hit the mid-range shot better than West and also get inside some, Tiago should be able to score efficiently enough (although not as consistently as Hibbert for various reasons like him being a more PnR player) to get the net points needed.

[DespЏrado]

Watching the pressers today, one thing that does seem to be worth noting is how loose the Spurs (at least Popovich, Parker, and Duncan) seem to be. It's almost as if they're drinking the whole situation in. They know (they have to know) that they're not favored by many to win this and, like everything else they do, the best approach here is to just compete and do the things they're supposed to do. But if the experienced hands can exude that sort of calm and approach this with joy rather than anxiety, maybe -- just maybe -- that seeps down through the ranks and the inexperienced Spurs can just relax and play.


Most of the Spurs at this point in their career should be going in with a nothing to lose attitude. The Heat have to win to live up to expectations. The Spurs meanwhile have been too old for years. It could make the shots a little easier for the Spurs and make it that much harder for the Heat, but that being a factor is really up to the Heat. How much they struggle to rotate and contain Parker. We can't beat them with both teams at their absolute maximum, fortunately that never happens. Spurs just have to fight a little bit harder to all the loose balls, keep the offense fluid and flowing, and Parker has to be superlative.

[jjktkk]

Our role players have played well in this years playoffs. Miami will be the ultimate test, but Green, Splitter, and Leonard, are much more integrated into this team than last years playoffs.

[boutons_deux]

I'd love to see LBJ drive hard and Aron go for the ball, get the block, bang hard body on LBJ, and lay LBJ out flat on his ass, repeatedly.

just dreamin, but Aron is the only body we have that matches up with LBJ's.