cd021
06-05-2013, 10:58 PM
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San Antonio Spurs Projected Rotations-Minutes-Defended by-Defending -backup
1. Tony Parker 38 mpg-Defended by :Chalmers/Cole/Wade/James-Defending-Chalmers/Cole-Backup-Joseph-5 mpg (1st half)/ Ginobili- 5 mpg (2nd half)
2. Danny Green-30 mpg-Defended by: Wade/Allen/Chalmers/Cole- Defending :Wade/Allen Backup-Ginobili-18 mpg
3. Kawhi Leonard-43 mpg-Defended by James/Wade/Miller-Defending:-James/Wade Backup: Green/Ginobili -5 mpg
4. Tiago Splitter-32 mpg -Defended by:Bosh/Haslem/Anderson- Defending:Bosh/Anderson/Haslem/Miller -Backup Boris Diaw 8-12 mpg [possibly Bonner/Leonard-8 mpg]
5. Tim Duncan-36 mpg-Defended by: Bosh/Anderson/Haslem- Defending:Haslem/Bosh/Anderson -Backup-Boris Diaw 12 mpg
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/miami-heat-350x262.jpg
Miami Heat Projected Rotations-Minutes-Defended by-Defending -backup
1. Chalmers-28 mpg-Defended by Parker/Joseph/-Defending-Parker-backup-Cole (16 mpg)
2. Wade-37 mpg-Defended by-Green/Ginobili/Leonard Defending-Green/Ginobili/Leonard -backup Allen (11 mpg)
3. James-43 mpg--Defended by-Leonard/Diaw/Ginobili/Green Defending-Leonard/Parker/Ginobili/Splitter-backup Allen- (7 mpg) [possibly Miller (7mpg)
4. Haslem-21 mpg-Defended by-Duncan/Diaw/ Splitter/*Bonner-Defending-Duncan/Splitter/Diaw -backup-Anderson (19 mpg) /James -7 mpg [possibly Miller- 7 mpg]
5. Bosh-35 mpg-Defended by Splitter/Duncan/Diaw-Defending -Splitter-Duncan-Diaw-backup-Anderson-5 mpg/Haslem 8 mpg [possibly Anthony]
At A Glance
Parker (Joseph/Ginobili)
Green-(Ginobili)
Leonard (Green/Ginobili)
Splitter (Diaw/*Bonner/* Leonard)
Duncan (Diaw)
Miami
Chalmers (Cole)
Wade (Allen)
James (Allen /Miller)
Haslem- (Anderson/*James/*Miller)
Bosh-(Anderson/Haslem/ *Anthony)
Keys for Spurs Victory
1. Assists/Turnover Ratio-Early in the season the Spurs struggled to take care of the basketball. They compensated by cranking out assists at high rate. They improved since then. In the playoffs they are averaging a nearly 2:1 assist/ T.O ration (23.5/12). Miami's in 20.3/13.5
2. Rebounding- Statistically speaking the Spurs are a better rebounding team but not by much. Bosh is a below average boarder (two 10 rebound games in his last 34 games). Wade and James are both above average for their positions. Duncan, Splitter, & Leonard need to crash the glass to keep the Miami from going small. Those 3 Spurs average 23.2 rebound per 36 minutes if they can bump that average to 27 they stand a chance to pound the Heat on the glass similar to the Pacers. Keeping Miami from getting second chance points is also a factor (Miami is only 26th in OR%) they struggle to get second chance shots which is key to playing effective defense against them.
3. The Big 3-This incarnation of the big is drastically different from the 07' and especially the 05' Spurs. Duncan was clearly the best of the 3 in 05' Parker in 07'. Parker is still leading the team in scoring and assists. Duncan has played his best basketball since his early 30's while Manu has played some of his most erratic basketball this season. If the Spurs get production close to:
Parker-22 pts/ 7 apg
Duncan-18 ppg-11 rpg-2.5 bpg
Ginobili-15pts, 6 asts, 5 rpg
55 pts, 13 + asts, and 17+ rpg
The Spurs become a much tougher team. If they can produce along with one of the Alternate 3 their chances of winning should drastically improve.
4.Limiting Wade & Bosh-For obvious reasons this is imperative. Wade has struggled with a nagging knee while Bosh has struggled to score or at least shoot accurately (31% in his last 5 games vs the Pacers). Holding Wade & Bosh to roughly 30 ppg on say 45% (they averaged 37.8 ppg and 52.8 FG% in the regular season compared to 26.4 ppg 45.2 FG% this post season) would put more pressure on James to attack. Making James carry the bulk of the load on offense while keeping him from dishing to 3 point shooters is the most effective way of stopping their offense.
5. The Alternate 3-Tiago Splitter, Danny Green, & Kawhi Leonard -are the 3 next important players on the roster and each in capable of contributing 15+ points in any given game to help the big 3 out. If they can contribute about 35 ppg on 50+ FG% in this series the Spurs offense becomes more difficult to stop, because they can't clamp down on one player. Splitter has seen a major drop off in scoring he's only averaging 6.4 ppg down from 10.3ppg in the regular season. He is now fully healthy after missing 2 games and playing just 27 minutes in games 2 & 3 against the Warriors.
6. Leonard On James-James will score but a 27 point 10-23 FG performance would be nice. He hit 56 % of his shot during the season. I expect Leonard to play every second James plays. I personally doubt Leonard gets into major foul trouble. He average 1.7 fouls per game in 37 minutes this post season. During the regular season his per 36 minute foul rate of 2.0 was tied for second (with Green )with only Parker's 1.5 fouls per 36 minutes being lower.
(Combined Numbers)
Regular Season-32.7 ppg 50% FG
Post Season-29.4 ppg 53.2% FG
Miami must not be allowed to run in transition. Poppovich has been successful in the past of getting his team to stop transition baskets (Phoenix in '05). Bosh needs to be properly defended on the perimeter he is capable of getting hot from 15-23 feet. Wade has to be a proirty and cannot be overlooked. Despite his inconsistency he can still produce on occasion. Get their big men in to foul trouble. Haslem is undersized for both Duncan & Splitter but he is the best offense/defense big save for Bosh. With Anderson they gain rim protection, P&R defense and rebounding. He however fouls at a ridiculous rate (5.7 per game in the post season to 2.3 bpg) Anthony is purely defense and is undersized as well. Limit Lebron and Wades trips to the line and force them to hit tough shots. If the Spurs can do this...
Spurs in 6
San Antonio Spurs Projected Rotations-Minutes-Defended by-Defending -backup
1. Tony Parker 38 mpg-Defended by :Chalmers/Cole/Wade/James-Defending-Chalmers/Cole-Backup-Joseph-5 mpg (1st half)/ Ginobili- 5 mpg (2nd half)
2. Danny Green-30 mpg-Defended by: Wade/Allen/Chalmers/Cole- Defending :Wade/Allen Backup-Ginobili-18 mpg
3. Kawhi Leonard-43 mpg-Defended by James/Wade/Miller-Defending:-James/Wade Backup: Green/Ginobili -5 mpg
4. Tiago Splitter-32 mpg -Defended by:Bosh/Haslem/Anderson- Defending:Bosh/Anderson/Haslem/Miller -Backup Boris Diaw 8-12 mpg [possibly Bonner/Leonard-8 mpg]
5. Tim Duncan-36 mpg-Defended by: Bosh/Anderson/Haslem- Defending:Haslem/Bosh/Anderson -Backup-Boris Diaw 12 mpg
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/miami-heat-350x262.jpg
Miami Heat Projected Rotations-Minutes-Defended by-Defending -backup
1. Chalmers-28 mpg-Defended by Parker/Joseph/-Defending-Parker-backup-Cole (16 mpg)
2. Wade-37 mpg-Defended by-Green/Ginobili/Leonard Defending-Green/Ginobili/Leonard -backup Allen (11 mpg)
3. James-43 mpg--Defended by-Leonard/Diaw/Ginobili/Green Defending-Leonard/Parker/Ginobili/Splitter-backup Allen- (7 mpg) [possibly Miller (7mpg)
4. Haslem-21 mpg-Defended by-Duncan/Diaw/ Splitter/*Bonner-Defending-Duncan/Splitter/Diaw -backup-Anderson (19 mpg) /James -7 mpg [possibly Miller- 7 mpg]
5. Bosh-35 mpg-Defended by Splitter/Duncan/Diaw-Defending -Splitter-Duncan-Diaw-backup-Anderson-5 mpg/Haslem 8 mpg [possibly Anthony]
At A Glance
Parker (Joseph/Ginobili)
Green-(Ginobili)
Leonard (Green/Ginobili)
Splitter (Diaw/*Bonner/* Leonard)
Duncan (Diaw)
Miami
Chalmers (Cole)
Wade (Allen)
James (Allen /Miller)
Haslem- (Anderson/*James/*Miller)
Bosh-(Anderson/Haslem/ *Anthony)
Keys for Spurs Victory
1. Assists/Turnover Ratio-Early in the season the Spurs struggled to take care of the basketball. They compensated by cranking out assists at high rate. They improved since then. In the playoffs they are averaging a nearly 2:1 assist/ T.O ration (23.5/12). Miami's in 20.3/13.5
2. Rebounding- Statistically speaking the Spurs are a better rebounding team but not by much. Bosh is a below average boarder (two 10 rebound games in his last 34 games). Wade and James are both above average for their positions. Duncan, Splitter, & Leonard need to crash the glass to keep the Miami from going small. Those 3 Spurs average 23.2 rebound per 36 minutes if they can bump that average to 27 they stand a chance to pound the Heat on the glass similar to the Pacers. Keeping Miami from getting second chance points is also a factor (Miami is only 26th in OR%) they struggle to get second chance shots which is key to playing effective defense against them.
3. The Big 3-This incarnation of the big is drastically different from the 07' and especially the 05' Spurs. Duncan was clearly the best of the 3 in 05' Parker in 07'. Parker is still leading the team in scoring and assists. Duncan has played his best basketball since his early 30's while Manu has played some of his most erratic basketball this season. If the Spurs get production close to:
Parker-22 pts/ 7 apg
Duncan-18 ppg-11 rpg-2.5 bpg
Ginobili-15pts, 6 asts, 5 rpg
55 pts, 13 + asts, and 17+ rpg
The Spurs become a much tougher team. If they can produce along with one of the Alternate 3 their chances of winning should drastically improve.
4.Limiting Wade & Bosh-For obvious reasons this is imperative. Wade has struggled with a nagging knee while Bosh has struggled to score or at least shoot accurately (31% in his last 5 games vs the Pacers). Holding Wade & Bosh to roughly 30 ppg on say 45% (they averaged 37.8 ppg and 52.8 FG% in the regular season compared to 26.4 ppg 45.2 FG% this post season) would put more pressure on James to attack. Making James carry the bulk of the load on offense while keeping him from dishing to 3 point shooters is the most effective way of stopping their offense.
5. The Alternate 3-Tiago Splitter, Danny Green, & Kawhi Leonard -are the 3 next important players on the roster and each in capable of contributing 15+ points in any given game to help the big 3 out. If they can contribute about 35 ppg on 50+ FG% in this series the Spurs offense becomes more difficult to stop, because they can't clamp down on one player. Splitter has seen a major drop off in scoring he's only averaging 6.4 ppg down from 10.3ppg in the regular season. He is now fully healthy after missing 2 games and playing just 27 minutes in games 2 & 3 against the Warriors.
6. Leonard On James-James will score but a 27 point 10-23 FG performance would be nice. He hit 56 % of his shot during the season. I expect Leonard to play every second James plays. I personally doubt Leonard gets into major foul trouble. He average 1.7 fouls per game in 37 minutes this post season. During the regular season his per 36 minute foul rate of 2.0 was tied for second (with Green )with only Parker's 1.5 fouls per 36 minutes being lower.
(Combined Numbers)
Regular Season-32.7 ppg 50% FG
Post Season-29.4 ppg 53.2% FG
Miami must not be allowed to run in transition. Poppovich has been successful in the past of getting his team to stop transition baskets (Phoenix in '05). Bosh needs to be properly defended on the perimeter he is capable of getting hot from 15-23 feet. Wade has to be a proirty and cannot be overlooked. Despite his inconsistency he can still produce on occasion. Get their big men in to foul trouble. Haslem is undersized for both Duncan & Splitter but he is the best offense/defense big save for Bosh. With Anderson they gain rim protection, P&R defense and rebounding. He however fouls at a ridiculous rate (5.7 per game in the post season to 2.3 bpg) Anthony is purely defense and is undersized as well. Limit Lebron and Wades trips to the line and force them to hit tough shots. If the Spurs can do this...
Spurs in 6