GSH
06-07-2013, 08:27 AM
This article from NBA.com is pretty interesting. http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2013/06/07/game-1-the-impact-plays/
Whether or not the numbers are perfect, it does a pretty good job of illustrating how a dumb play at certain points in the game can be a lot more costly than at other times. The best example is Danny Green's 3-shot foul on Ray Allen.
But it also confirms something that I (and some others) have said for a long time - not all bad calls are created equal. Just because the foul and free throw count are approximately equal, it doesn't mean they had the same impact. (And this still doesn't address the idea of momentum, in that regard.) I was pleased to find out that they are using this to help evaluate and teach the refs. "The NBA has a way to use analytics to figure out just which plays had the biggest impact on a close game. It’s a “leverage” model that was developed to evaluate and instruct referees by pointing out which calls or no-calls had the biggest impact on a game’s result." The flip side of that is it makes me wonder if it's teaching the refs to swallow their whistles, since calls at the ends of games are much more likely to have a bigger impact on the outcomes.
Anyway... the article isn't about the refs. But it is a pretty interesting look at the last few possessions of this game. I can't disagree that the steal by Leonard was huge.
"With the Spurs up 79-78 and the Heat in possession with just over six minutes to go, the Spurs’ win probability is 49.6 percent. But just gaining possession on Leonard’s steal changes it to 58.3 percent. And after Tony Parker puts Norris Cole in the blender and converts the layup, it’s at 65.4 percent. So the whole sequence is an increase of 15.8 percent." That was just an outstanding defensive play by Kawhi, at a very critical point in the game.
Whether or not the numbers are perfect, it does a pretty good job of illustrating how a dumb play at certain points in the game can be a lot more costly than at other times. The best example is Danny Green's 3-shot foul on Ray Allen.
But it also confirms something that I (and some others) have said for a long time - not all bad calls are created equal. Just because the foul and free throw count are approximately equal, it doesn't mean they had the same impact. (And this still doesn't address the idea of momentum, in that regard.) I was pleased to find out that they are using this to help evaluate and teach the refs. "The NBA has a way to use analytics to figure out just which plays had the biggest impact on a close game. It’s a “leverage” model that was developed to evaluate and instruct referees by pointing out which calls or no-calls had the biggest impact on a game’s result." The flip side of that is it makes me wonder if it's teaching the refs to swallow their whistles, since calls at the ends of games are much more likely to have a bigger impact on the outcomes.
Anyway... the article isn't about the refs. But it is a pretty interesting look at the last few possessions of this game. I can't disagree that the steal by Leonard was huge.
"With the Spurs up 79-78 and the Heat in possession with just over six minutes to go, the Spurs’ win probability is 49.6 percent. But just gaining possession on Leonard’s steal changes it to 58.3 percent. And after Tony Parker puts Norris Cole in the blender and converts the layup, it’s at 65.4 percent. So the whole sequence is an increase of 15.8 percent." That was just an outstanding defensive play by Kawhi, at a very critical point in the game.