Expectations for Game 2

[math]

I am as surprised as anyone but I think we have a good chance at actually winning game 2. If I had to make a prediction, then I would actually predict a win for the Spurs. There is a chance the Heat could blow us out due to their desperation and being at home.

I expect that the Heat will come out furiously and will force a bunch of turnovers. They will have a solid lead after the first quarter. However, I think that we will slowly work our way back into the game and win a close game.

IMO, LeBron is the highest BB IQ player of all time. I expect him to come out extremely aggressively, looking to attack the paint and score a lot more. However, the Heat face several problems. First, this team does not have the D Wade of 2006. This is a good but not great player now who has quite a bit due to his knee injury. Bosh continues to struggle. He will regress to the mean in terms of his 3 point shooting. So, the failure of Spo and the rest of the Heat to recognize that his angle 3 was a bad shot is not a good sign for them. Still, we can hardly expect them to throw Bosh under the bus.

Next, the Heat have some significant flaws. They do have the best player in the game, but they are extremely vulnerable at point guard and in the post. Thus, we see Tony and Tim leading our scoring. We are the more complete team. I expect us to continue playing better and better defense as that is what happened as game 1 went on. I think we also will shoot much better.

The team won't panic if we get down big due to turnovers and frenetic defense. Neither should the fans.
The Spurs are 7-1 in road games. They are 13-2 in the playoffs. The Heat are 4-4 in their last 8 games. They peaked early. They are not coasting. These players do not coast to get into a game7 and potentially lose the series and go fishing. They are simply struggling.

So, in sum, I expect a much more aggressive defense, playing the passing lanes, blitzing the pick and roll and hedging aggressively, LeBron attacking the rim with ferocity and getting to the free throw line more. I expect a significant deficit in the first half due to our turnovers leading to their easy transition buckets and a rocking Heat arena. However, we will settle down and work our way back into the game. Our defense will improve especially as we stop turning the ball over. The fourth quarter should be close. And I expect us to win it.

No panic if they get up big in the first quarter. If we win this game, we have a strangle hold on this series. Yes, OKC won the first game last year and Miami went onto win the series. WHEN OKC WAS PLAYING AT IN OKC. Yes, Indiana won the first game of that series, but Indiana is not nearly as good as the Spurs. George Hill is not Tony Parker. Hibbert still is not the player Tim Duncan is. We close quarters much better than they do. We make much better decisions than they do. We are a much smarter team. We are a much deeper team. Miami is in a tough but tenable position right now. Step on their throats now and the series is effectively over. They will not beat the Spurs 4 out of 5 WHEN 3 OF THOSE GAMES ARE IN SA.

[math]

Discuss.

[math]

TPark - you gave me the tickets when I was on crutches for the Mavs Spurs game 7 - that was a great game (even though we lost) . I still remember it .

[T Park]

I expect Parker Duncan and others to be more agressive driving. When they did points came very easy.

I expect about 30% of the missed open shots to go in.

I expect Duncan to have an even bigger game, especially after watching the tape. He had a lot on PnR opportunities to drive for easy buckets and instead when James met him at the rim passed to Kawhi or Danny.

[Horry Hipcheck]

I expect the Spurs to lose Game 2. Mostly because I can't fathom Lebron and the Heat failing to generate a response to Game 1. The Spurs got what they came for in Miami, which was to leave for Game 3 no worse than tied 1-1, though I don't think any player will be satisfied with that going into Game 2. Lebron is not the highest basketball IQ player of all time. No way. He's damn talented, and a force to be reckoned with, but he makes plenty of mistakes on both sides of the ball. Bosh will score more than two points, Lebron will score more than 18, and Wade won't go scoreless in the fourth. On the Spurs' end, Leonard should probably wake up offensively, and Green/Ginobili should also up their contributions to scoring. This Spurs offense does not score 92 points when firing on all cylinders, nor do the Heat. Winning Game 2 will require Duncan to get going earlier, for Parker to get more penetration, and for role players to hit shots. Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, and Splitter all missed seemingly easy shots in the paint all game. Execute at the rim and force Miami to play slow against your set defense. Defensively, stick with man to man. Let size trouble Lebron in the post, don't swarm him with numbers and leave Allen or Battier open. Abandoning defensive assignments cost the Spurs big shots from Allen and Miller in the second and third quarters, when Miami threatened to run away with the game. The Spurs are most lethal when they can run fast break transition offense through Tony, and when they're making their shots to force opponents to run half court sets against their defense. Miss jumpers and allow Miami to run fast breaks, and you're toast.

[Go0n]

We're going to lose game 2. Four turnovers per quarter, not per 48. Miami will be on a mission, no way do they want to be down 2-0 and headed to enemy territory. I expect their perimeter defense to tighten, we aren't going to see as many open looks as we got last night. James will be on Parker for the entire 4th quarter, it was (mostly) effective last night and Spoelstra will go to it earlier. Bosh will have a much better shooting night, finish in the mid-20's.

No matter what happens, we already did what we went to Miami to do. Steal one. All we have to do at this point is take care of business at home. Game 2 is just a free opportunity to make our job easier.

[bthewigwam]

W

[HemisfairArena]

I expect to be up 2-0 coming back to San Antonio.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Miami will win by 10-15 points. It's a must win for them. They won't blow it. As long as Spurs can head into Game 6 with a 3-2 lead I'll be happy.

[DarrinS]

Spurs will hit more of their wide open shots.

[EVAY]

I also expect the Heat to come with extreme aggression. I think they were 'feeling us out' last night and didn't expect us to be able to go ahead in the last few minutes of the game. I expect them to come out strong and not let up as they did a bit last night. IF (big IF) the Spurs can come back against that, I expect that they will dominate the rest of the games. But I don't expect that. Miami is a very very good team and they will not let Sunday's game get away from them.

[bklynspursfan]

I expect it to be similar to Memphis, game 3. Take their first hit, and stay within striking distance so that in the 4th , it can be anyone's game.

I also expect Pop to maybe take a different approach to how he defends Lebron. Like maybe don't send help, and stay home on the shooters. Just cause sometimes, he seems to be 1 step ahead of what people are expecting

[TheGoldStandard]

Spurs will win game 2 because Lebron will have his game and the "others" will not be in sync with him. I see Lebron going for 26 and 10 and 6, Wade with 15 and Bosh with 12... Tim won't have that slow of a start and not early foul trouble which would have probably equaled him getting 4 more points, Danny Green will hit some shots and so will Kawhi especially those open 3's he's been getting with rotation. The Spurs won but they didn't play all that well in the 1st half but we managed to stick around to keep the game within striking distance. We'll win game 2 in a more convincing fashion, 9 points. 106 - 99

[math]

Well, Gold Standard, you could be right - especially considering LeBron has been referring to his Cleveland days. No one player without adequate help is going to be this Spurs team now. LeBron and 4 guys is not enough. The Cleveland Heat/Miami Cavaliers can't beat this Spurs team now. If the Heat were playing their best basketball, they would beat us. That would require a dominant and convincing Wade and a productive and efficient Chris Bosh. I just do not believe that we will see that 4 games out of 7.

[BatManu20]

Miami will win by 10-15 points. It's a must win for them. They won't blow it.

[skulls138]

IMO, LeBron is the highest BB IQ player of all time.I gotta laugh at this. Without his physical skills where would he be? I think both Duncan and Parker are smarter than Lebron. Lebron tries to be smart but many times out smarts himself. He doesn't even know how to play to his strengths, something you cant say about Duncan or Parker. Lebron gets confused deciding whether to be Magic or Michael when he's neither, he's a small forward and takes everyone elses role away from them. If Lebron needs a role model it should be Larry Bird honestly, the TRUE highest IQ player.

[pikkiwoki]

Teams in the Spurs' position have a .188 winning percentage in Game 2. Hopefully we can buck the trend.

From mysanantonio.com:

http://i.imgur.com/Zgyz6zb.jpg

[BatManu20]

Teams in the Spurs' position have a .188 winning percentage in Game 2. Hopefully we can buck the trend.

From mysanantonio.com:

http://i.imgur.com/Zgyz6zb.jpg

Damn those odds are terrible lol. Yea Miami ties this thing up.

[100%duncan]

Teams in the Spurs' position have a .188 winning percentage in Game 2. Hopefully we can buck the trend.

From mysanantonio.com:

http://i.imgur.com/Zgyz6zb.jpg

Time to change the fucking trend tbh.

Go Spurs Go! :flag:

[cd021]

Pros-

Haslem On Duncan is a mismatch, Duncan is nearly 3 inches tallers and with long arms can shoot over him easily.

Anderson fouls at an insane rate, If he defends Duncan in the post i'd expect Duncan to draw 2 trips to the FT line.

Duncan & Leonard are unlikely to pick up fouls so early on. Duncan only averages 1.8 PFPG in the season, Leonard 2.0 in 37 mpg in the post season.

Splitter should be better on the glass, he isn't rodman but he is better than 2 boards in 24 minutes.

Manu actually shot below he below average shooting percentage in the playoffs. I'd expect more shots to drop and more freethrow attempts as well. I'd expect 15pts on 4-10, 2-5 3pt,5-6 FT

Parker appears to have had his reps against teams who trap (Memphis in '11 & '13 and OKC in '12) he should continue to find more open looks for Green .ect

Diaw figures to have a bigger impact. He barely played and his skill set is hard to pass up. He can play with Duncan and Splitter defend the p&R. Shoot from outside post smaller defenders and attack the rim off a late close out.

The Spurs have a clear advantage in big lineups. Wade screws up the spacing Haslem can only hit those 15 footers on the baseline, and Bosh can't back down Splitter.

Cons:

This was Bosh's first "bad" game against the Spurs 24pts and 60% shooting in the past 5 meeting is a high standard. He may bounce back if he stays inside the arc.

Lebron may be in super attack mode 34 points territory.

Wade has two extra days off before the next game one would think he'd be better off since he's played 1 game in 5 days by tip.

Miller, Allen, Chalmers, Cole, are each capable of going off offensively that could happen sooner than later.

[cd021]

Time to change the fucking trend tbh.

Go Spurs Go! :flag:

Why couldn't they have one of those split screens on him the entire game, that was awesome.

[jehawk81]

Highest BB IQ player of all time??? Sheesh, basketball players aren't that dumb tbh..give them some credit

Anyways, I believe that the rest of ur post sounds very plausible, especially with this version of the 2013 SAS

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

It will either be a close Spurs win, or the Heat will rout the Spurs, perhaps by a margin of victory of 20 points or so.

[siraulo23]

- If game 1 tim duncan (ie pre all star break, vintage td/overpowers through defenders in the paint) shows up for the game 2/rest of the series,
it goes a long for the spurs success

- Spurs gotta keep running their sets, parker should run pick n rolls on the move coming off a pick especially when lebron is on him, thats their
most effective attack

- Early offense, try to get easy points on the break

- Make open shots, spurs had a lot of open shots in game 1, they may not be so open in game 2 but they gotta knock em down

- The heat are gonna come back strong, dont expect lebron to score less than 20 again this series

- Dont overreact to lebron on the the post, if they do, expect chalmers/battier etc... to make those open 3s, kawhi's gotta force him middle and
the big should only help on the bounce

[SenorSpur]

Two things immediately come to mind.

Miami Heat will certainly come out with a heightened sense of desparation. They will play better and be more manicial on D.

On the other hand, the Spurs can and will shoot better than the 40% they shot in Game 1.

[pikkiwoki]

From 1950 to 2012, in Game 1 of the Finals, the road team won 16 times, lost 47 times (.254 winning pct). So by winning the opener, the Spurs already bucked one trend.

Can they buck two trends in a row?

[The Reckoning]

Spurs sweep and score 104 in the final game

then my suga momma Kori will paypal my goods, and ill be sippin mojitos on a tropical paradise while you naysayers are stuck to your keyboard.

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

I'm hoping for a repeat of the 2011 Western Conference Semifinals, Mavs-Lakers.

Mavs beat the favored Lakers on the road in Game 1 by a narrow margin.

Even more shockingly, the Mavs beat the Lakers on the road in Game 2 as well, and by a larger margin at that.

[Whisky Dog]

You would think the Heat would win this next game, but when a team is at game 2 of the finals playing on the road and is a ridiculous 7-1 on the road in the playoffs then you have to think they're a really composed team and will be there in the end with a chance to win the game. And as long as the officiating doesn't go crazy against the Spurs in a tight 4th quarter I like the Spurs offensively and defensively against anyone in a close finish.

[spurspokesman]

Two things immediately come to mind. Miami Heat will certainly come out with a heightened sense of desparation. They will play better and be more manicial on D.On the other hand, the Spurs can and will shoot better than the 40% they shot in Game 1.This. The spurs shot a lower percentage than the heat and still won. So let's stop acting like only mia can improve. They been begging to get beat for a while and only SA and indy has made the m pay lol

[024]

With the media suddenly turning against the Heat's big 3, I expect them to bring down the hammer in game 2. Spurs have to do what they can do, play tight defense and hope they can keep the game close until the end. Hitting their open 3's would definitely help counter Miami's offense, which should be much more aggressive.

[EVAY]

Look you guys, I am bumping this thread because I don't know if I will get a chance to get back on the forum before sometime late in tonight's game. I can't even watch the game in real time tonight because we have out-of-town guests who planned their trip here long before the dates for finals were set and before the Spurs were even it.

So I am committed to taking care of folks who know zero about basketball and care less than zero about it.

So you guys are in charge of making sure that the Spurs win tonight, okay? This is all on you guys. You have to scream and yell and do whatever you have to do to make this happen, okay? Jinxes, reverse jinxes, whatever it takes.

I will be wishing everyone well and hoping for the best.

Courage!!!!!!!

[rascal]

Double digit loss for the Spurs. Miami needs this one and the spurs will have a normal let down after the game 1 win.

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

Even if the Spurs lose, the margin of defeat is important.


Lose by 34 points, and the momentum - and psychological advantage - will arguably be very much on the Heat's side, as Miami should be full of confidence.


Lose by 4 points, and the Spurs will arguably have the mental edge as the series shifts to San Antonio.

[rascal]

Even if the Spurs lose, the margin of defeat is important.

Lose by 34 points, and the momentum - and psychological advantage - will arguably be very much on the Heat's side.


Lose by 4 points, and the Spurs will arguably have the mental edge as the series shifts to San Antonio.

This is going 7 games. The spurs will win a game 7 in Miami.
The Spurs will never lose an NBA finals.

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

The Spurs will never lose an NBA finals.


I hope they won't ever lose an NBA Finals, but bear in mind that many San Francisco 49ers fans probably thought the 49ers wouldn't lose to the Ravens in the Super Bowl just because San Francisco was 5-0 in Super Bowls at the time.

[BatManu20]

Look for Lebron in the post, even if we do pack the lane. Kawhi, green, or anyone else can't guard Lebron in the post. He'll try and get them in foul trouble. Also, I think bosh hits his open looks today. If the Spurs are to lose, which the odds say they will, I'd rather them lose by 10+ than 1 or 2 points tbh.

[Fpoonsie]

Odds are MIA gets the W, but SA's resiliency and focus in the playoffs this year has been such a refreshing surprise -- primarily, after the Gm 2 loss against GS -- that I wouldn't really be THAT shocked if they found a way to get this 2nd one.

[Dingle Barry]

Even if the Spurs lose, the margin of defeat is important.


Lose by 34 points, and the momentum - and psychological advantage - will arguably be very much on the Heat's side, as Miami should be full of confidence.


Lose by 4 points, and the Spurs will arguably have the mental edge as the series shifts to San Antonio. Pop will wave the white flag and take the starters out very early if things get out of hand.

[weeks]

i don't like talking about the odds. if you flip a penny and it comes up heads 50 times in a row, it doesn't mean it's more likely to come up tails on the next flip. it's still a 50/50 proposition.


what's happened in the past is interesting, but it doesn't really matter. we aren't playing against whatever subjective odds are assigned to us based on past data involving many other teams. we're playing against a team - and what matters is how each team is playing right now. no bonus points will be assigned for past accomplishments or past trends. the spurs should know this better than anyone.

miami is what, 3-4 in their last seven games or something? miami is not at their peak. we, on the other hand, have a very good record over the past six or seven games. it's all about how you're playing in these moments, in this series. the spurs were a tad rusty for the first three but dominated in the 4th.

this is worrisome for a miami fan. barring interference from the refs and stern to make sure the series meets his hopes for big bucks, we could definitely take another game on the road.
this is a hungry road team we got on our hands.