How confident are you that well win this series?

[N0 LyF3 ScRuB]

Well?

[BillMc]

Depends on Tony's health....

[Spursmania]

Yep, it all depends on TP.

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

Right now, I'd say 60-70%. If the Spurs win Game 4, then I'd call it just about 90%.

[TDomination]

We need TP

If he's 90% or healthier in game 4, then I feel about 90% confident that we will win this series.

If he's out for game 4, i'm gonna have a knot in my stomach for the rest of the series.

[SpurSpurSpurs]

Can't compute by %. Spurs in 5. If not, Miami takes it from us.

[Seventyniner]

With a healthy Parker, 61.92%. This basically assumes the Spurs have a 60% chance of winning a home game and a 30% chance of winning a road game.

With Tony missing game 4, I'll cut the Spurs' chance of winning game 4 to 30%. It comes out to 48.06%.

With Tony missing the rest of the series, I'll go with 30% chance of winning a home game and 15% chance of winning a road game. 22.4325% chance of a title.

[GrandeDavid]

Pretty darn confident.

[LarryDavid]

Well?

Ab0uT a5 c0nF1d3nt as y0ur ab1Lity t0 5pell r1GhT

[Sec24Row7]

I'll be 100% sure after we win the 4th game.

[Bianconeri]

I'm willing to bet splittler's life, we'll do this in five

[cheguevara]

If Tony is somewhat usable, still 50-50 IMO

if Tony is really hurt, 1/4 chance

[TampaDude]

Tony is fine. Spurs in 5.

[Beaverfuzz]

100% Book it. I had Spurs in 6 but it is what it is.

[CosmicCowboy]

I was confident enough before it started to bet $500 on the Spurs to win the series.

[hater]

injuries can change a series. Injury to your best player can really change a series.

Sticking to Spurs in 7 and hoping Parker will be alright

Confidence level: 79%

[TE]

Still 50-50

[tesseractive]

I still think this is going to be a long series. The Heat are going to be pissed off coming into game 4, and we've been seeing what they could do in the game after a loss all playoffs long. I think the Spurs are going to win out, but I think they're going to need one more win in Miami to get there.

66% confident

[Agloco]

Provided that Tony is ok and what we are seeing from Leonard, Green, et al. is not an aberration, I'd say pretty damn good odds.

[math]

You are pretty awesome.

I am pretty confident. I was very surprised about game 2. I expected us to win it. I thought that they would get a big lead and then that
the Spurs would chip away at the lead and win a close game. And if there was a blow out, I thought that it would be either begin at the onset of the game or the beginning of the third quarter. I did not expect it to transpire like it did.

I was cursing at the tv, tbh, most of the first half, esp at Pop. I hate having Bonner on the floor. I hate when we do not have 2 legit bigs who can
rebound and protect the rim. And I saw over and over again where we were being punished because we only had 1 big on the floor.

And then Neal with it. His plantar fascitis (sp?) definitely threw off his shot during the regular season, but dude has been clutch before.
He will not be afraid to shoot the ball, unlike Bonner. And Neal has proven to hit clutch shots at times. His d is terrible. But somehow this lineup with him worked. And he is in the zone right now. Do we play him more ? Is it fool's gold ? His shot mechanics are very good. And when he is healthy, I do believe in his shot. I guess Pop should keep playing him until we have clear and sustained evidence that his court presence hurts us.


I mentioned before I am not a big believer in timvp's prognostication. But tbh he has forgotten more about basketball than I will ever learn or know. His powers of analysis are pretty much unrivaled imo. And he is hugely smart. I was wondering about our ability to replicate game 3 in game 4. I agree with him that this kind of shooting is unlikely to reoccur. We are a good 3 point shooting team. They are good shooters (Green and Neal) and the looks are open by design due to the defense that the Heat play. They probably are not going to change their trapping defense. Their reasoning would be that it is more likely that Parker on the pick and roll would beat them than Neal and Green by the 3. However, they will feel some pressure to adjust and that should make it easier for Parker to use the pick and roll and score.

We need Tony to be near 100 percent to win the series. It sounds like he will be. Tim, Tony, and Manu will need to play much better in game 4 than they did in games 2 and 3.


It seems that teams do not win the finals if they lose by 36 or more points. In 05, we lost by around 30 points, however. So, I do not know how much stock to place in that stat. The idea behind it, in my view, seems to make sense: the better team does not allow itself to get slaughtered to that extent. Teams that make it to the finals usually are reasonably close in talent and execution. Winning teams are too competitive to allow themselves to be humiliated like that. A team does not normally lose by 36 points because they shot badly or the other team shot really well or even both of those things combined. That seems to indicate some characteristics like competitiveness and fight and character ... that I expect to be associated with winning. That is something to think about. And I do differentiate finals from earlier series in the playoffs.

Game 4 will be very different. I think that it will be very difficult to win. Heat have not lost back to back games in quite a while. They were humiliated. We saw how they came back in game 2 after a loss. I expect a similar effort / performance from them in game 4 like we saw in game 2. The difference is that game 4 is on our floor. Hopefully, TP and TD and Manu realize that they still have not yet played well (except for TP in game 1). They must be as hungry as the Heat to win game 4. If they are not, the Heat will win. And they will be back in the series. They are not out of the series yet. But they are close to being out. A game 4 win and they are slight favorites to repeat. If the Spurs win, the Spurs are heavy favorites.

I understand when our shots don't fall and when the other team is making plays. But I do not understand when we get pounded on the boards by the Heat or we make mental mistakes and are careless and turn the ball over. I do not understand when we cry to the refs instead of getting back on defense. I do not understand when we do not close out on Miller or Allen or play good defense. We cannot afford mental mistakes and we cannot afford complacency. The hungrier team will win game 4.

I expect and hope for a war in game 4, a war that we win. I have a hard time imagining that we would blow them out again. I could see how they might blow us out however after the beat down we just gave them.

If we do lose game 4, I expect that we will win game 5.

[KaiRMD1]

50-50