Heat are Still the Favorites and other Random Thoughts Before Game 6

[timvp]

-Welp, here we are. One win away. 1. It's not the world's greatest situation because winning another road game in Miami might be the most difficult thing the Spurs have ever tried to do -- but I can't complain at all. Before the series, if you tell me the Spurs would take a 3-2 lead into Miami, I'd be elated. (Obviously, since Heat in 5, etc, etc.)

-This underdog role is so different emotionally than the previous four championships (:lol). At no point in the past did I ever feel like the Spurs were anything but the favorites in the 1999, 2003, 2005 and 2007 Finals. This series, however, I've never thought the percentages made the Spurs the favorites -- and I still don't heading into Game 6.

-The basic math is simple: If the Heat have a 70% chance of winning tonight (Vegas thinks their chances are better than that) and an 80% chance of winning Game 7 (that's probably an understatement), that gives Miami a 56% chance to win the championship. Even with this slightly homer view (IMO, at least), the Spurs are still sitting at 44%. That's a whole lot better than the 30% I gave them when the series started ....... but it's still a loooooooooooong way away from gassing up the riverboats.

-I really think tonight is the game the Spurs have to win if they're going to come out on top. A road team hasn't won a Game 7 in the Finals in 35 years (the same holds true for baseball, FWIW). I don't think that's a fluke. Winning a road Game 7 is extremely difficult. The emotion and the energy is just too much for the road team to overcome. One example is Game 6 against the Thunder last year -- which was basically OKC's Game 7. That game was damn near impossible for the Spurs to win, especially when you factor in the refs getting swept away in the emotion. Another example is when the Spurs won Game 7 back in 2005 against the Pistons. Detroit played better for a majority of that game ... but even that historically hardnosed, mentally tough team cracked as the AT&T Center erupted down the stretch.

-So yeah, Pop has to pull out all the stops tonight. Minute limits be damned. Pop can't factor in that there is another game in two days.

-All I want tonight is for the Spurs to keep it close and give themselves a chance. If they are within striking distance down the stretch, that's all I can ask for at this point. Keep it close and fight for it.

-I expect some pretty obvious adjustments from the Heat. First of all, Miller will be replaced in the starting lineup. I could see Miami going with Ray Allen, Shane Battier or even Norris Cole (if they think Cole is a Ginobili stopper). Most likely Allen ... with Battier being the other possibility. They won't switch screens as much -- if at all. They will also be driving to the hoop as much as humanly possible.

-Could Miami go back to a big lineup? I guess it's possible. Starting Haslem next to Bosh would be somewhat surprising. Does Pop respond by taking Ginobili out of the starting lineup? I hope not. That worked too well last game. Leonard can guard Haslem to start the halves and then Pop can just mix in bigger lineups off the bench.

-I'm excited/scared/nervous right now. I can only imagine what the players are feeling.

-The big difference in Miami will be the Heat's role players playing much better. Outside of Allen, they all pretty much sucked in San Antonio. The Spurs have to hope that not all of them go off in these upcoming games (or game).

-As far as the Spurs are concerned, it's down to execution. Limit turnovers, crash the glass and execute the game plan. That's what this series has boiled down to.

-prayingdog.jpg, vomit.gif, dannyferrydivingontheground.jpg, one.png

-It's going to take the best performance of the season to get this done. I believe they have it in 'em.

1.

Believe.

[hater]

Heat win tonight. Heat choke in game 7.

it is written. Water and bread today. All kinds of shit Thursday.

[The Reckoning]

timvp trying too hard now imo

[TheyCallMePro]

I just cant imagine the Spurs losing the Championship at this point.

Frankly as a Spurs fan I'm not even thinking past tonight. This is our moment. Once you get to 3 wins in the Finals everything changes. Tim, Tony and Manu are going to will this team to victory tonight. All the pressure is on Miami. WE are going to win tonight. I feel it.

[DPG21920]

To me, the fact that in MIA blowouts of SA, SA has essentially been in it late into the third quarter only to have a 5-8 minute stretch derail everything bodes somewhat well. SA's blowouts of MIA have pretty much been wire-to-wire leads with a few pushes by MIA to make you sweat.

Also, it's interesting to note that MIA's big 3 seemingly has the least margin for error. Somewhat surprising. If Wade goes back to hobble-Wade instead of Jordan-Wade and/or Bosh plays soft, it might be tough for MIA to overcome. Their big 3 has put in some super human combined numbers in recent games.

Rebound, Rebound. Control turnovers. If you do that, you will be in a position that you were in before, even though they ended in blowouts.

[HI-FI]

-As far as the Spurs are concerned, it's down to execution. Limit turnovers, crash the glass and execute the game plan. That's what this series has boiled down to.

-prayingdog.jpg, vomit.gif, dannyferrydivingontheground.jpg, one.png

-It's going to take the best performance of the season to get this done. I believe they have it in 'em.

1.

Believe.

all of that.

I don't have much faith in the league, none in Stern, but I got faith in the Spurs. I gotta believe, I know the guys will give their all for what's left. We've come this far to be scared now.

[Slim Charles]

Spurs are finna get chin checked. Dem Heats are gonna expose that glass jaw and break that Islanders heart. It's some cat and mouse shit. The cat is just toying with their mousy ass before tearing that shit up. The mouse thinks it's going to get away but them BOOM! The claw is dropped and the heart explodes.

[FromWayDowntown]

In past years, I would have been a nervous wreck on this day. This year, I've found some odd calm -- likely based on the fact that I agree that the Spurs aren't the favorite here. If you had told me in April that this team would have a 3-2 lead in the Finals against the Heat going back to Miami and that it's worst case scenario for this season was a road loss in Game 7 of the NBA Finals to the Super Friends, I would have thought you were crazy -- not because I didn't believe in the Spurs, but because there were plenty of reasons to believe that the Spurs could play their very best basketball and still come up short against the star-laden Heat. To be here now is a remarkable outcome for the Spurs.

Now win this bitch.

1.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Hi timvp. :)

[Floyd Pacquiao]

tomhankssavingprivateryanshakinghand.gif

[TDomination]

I've been pretty down right accurate with my gut feelings on games before they start. From golden state, to the grizzlies and now with the heat. I would say game 1 was the only one i had no feeling towards. I didn't know what to expect.

But yeah Spurs are winning it tonight. It will finally be a close game. It will be won on a last second miss by the Heat (just like in 1999 when sprewell missed at the buzzer)

[ElNono]

-The basic math is simple: If the Heat have a 70% chance of winning tonight (Vegas thinks their chances are better than that) and an 80% chance of winning Game 7 (that's probably an understatement), that gives Miami a 56% chance to win the championship. Even with this slightly homer view (IMO, at least), the Spurs are still sitting at 44%. That's a whole lot better than the 30% I gave them when the series started ....... but it's still a loooooooooooong way away from gassing up the riverboats.

FWIW, ESPN Forecast (http://espn.go.com/nba/notebook/_/page/forecast-2013nbaf/espn-forecast-san-antonio-spurs-vs-miami-heat-2013-nba-finals) looks quite different.

According to them, Spurs are still underdogs to win Game 6 tonight (MIA 54%-SAS 46%) and Game 7 (MIA 57%-SAS 43%), but the overall series forecast after game 5 is:

SAS 69%
MIA 31%

[DPG21920]

That's just timvp doing timvp things. All stats show Spurs as favorites (the game 3 win, the 3-2 series lead, the stat you posted..). Sure they could lose, but that does not mean they are statistically still underdogs at this point.

[Floyd Pacquiao]

nah for real though the bball gods won't let the Spurs lose. It's their destiny to be champions.

[Blind Witness]

Spurs are finna get chin checked. Dem Heats are gonna expose that glass jaw and break that Islanders heart. It's some cat and mouse shit. The cat is just toying with their mousy ass before tearing that shit up. The mouse thinks it's going to get away but them BOOM! The claw is dropped and the heart explodes.

You write that up all by yourself?

Nobody told me you were up to multi-syllabic words!

[spurraider21]

timvp, you mean you believe we have a 30% chance of having that great performance, right? :lol

[timtonymanu]

Spurs are finna get chin checked. Dem Heats are gonna expose that glass jaw and break that Islanders heart. It's some cat and mouse shit. The cat is just toying with their mousy ass before tearing that shit up. The mouse thinks it's going to get away but them BOOM! The claw is dropped and the heart explodes.

Slim Charles, you sentimental motherfucker.

[Kuestmaster]

I have a good feeling about this.

[Slim Charles]

You write that up all by yourself?

Nobody told me you were up to multi-syllabic words!

Nobody told you because don't nobody know who you are. It's nothing against the Spurs, the King just likes drama. King just trying to get paid.

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

44 you say?

http://www.screeninsults.com/images/dirty-harry2.jpg

I like those odds.

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

Spurs are finna get chin checked. Dem Heats are gonna expose that glass jaw and break that Islanders heart. It's some cat and mouse shit. The cat is just toying with their mousy ass before tearing that shit up. The mouse thinks it's going to get away but them BOOM! The claw is dropped and the heart explodes.


Lol, did you think the Heat were doing the same thing to the Mavericks in the 2011 Finals, too, when Dallas took a 3-2 series lead to Miami? :lol

[Slim Charles]

Lol, did you think the Heat were doing the same thing to the Mavericks in the 2011 Finals, too, when Dallas took a 3-2 series lead to Miami? :lol

Why? Did I post shit about Dallas? They were just started out, rook. They went to the finals year one. The NBA is theirs now. Lebron set that shit up from day one of the season. He knew he wanted Tim. He wants to rip his heart out because of '07.

You ever go to the movies? The hero ALWAYS looks like he's about to lose. The world is crashing down and nothing is going right... Then all of a sudden the villain get's caught slippin'. Hero starts beatin' that ass and it's over. Good night. He just wants to build up the Fag 3 and rip their hearts out. King, Flash and that other guy bout to eat roasted heart for dinner on Thursday.

[perfectdark]

spurs cant let allen and miller open
their 3s (and 4 point plays!!!) hurt more than anything lebron does
combine this with a bunch of calls and non-calls in favor of the heat and it's suddenly a blowout in the span of 3 mins

[Maddog]

-Welp, here we are. One win away. 1. It's not the world's greatest situation because winning another road game in Miami might be the most difficult thing the Spurs have ever tried to do -- but I can't complain at all. Before the series, if you tell me the Spurs would take a 3-2 lead into Miami, I'd be elated. (Obviously, since Heat in 5, etc, etc.)

-This underdog role is so different emotionally than the previous four championships (:lol). At no point in the past did I ever feel like the Spurs were anything but the favorites in the 1999, 2003, 2005 and 2007 Finals. This series, however, I've never thought the percentages made the Spurs the favorites -- and I still don't heading into Game 6.

-The basic math is simple: If the Heat have a 70% chance of winning tonight (Vegas thinks their chances are better than that) and an 80% chance of winning Game 7 (that's probably an understatement), that gives Miami a 56% chance to win the championship. Even with this slightly homer view (IMO, at least), the Spurs are still sitting at 44%. That's a whole lot better than the 30% I gave them when the series started ....... but it's still a loooooooooooong way away from gassing up the riverboats.

......
-prayingdog.jpg, vomit.gif, dannyferrydivingontheground.jpg, one.png

-It's going to take the best performance of the season to get this done. I believe they have it in 'em.

1.

Believe.


Logic says no my heart says they have a shot.

This is so completely different than any other final etc.
So close yet so far.

Yikes this may be the most nervous I've ever been before a game ever!!!

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

You ever go to the movies? The hero ALWAYS looks like he's about to lose. The world is crashing down and nothing is going right... Then all of a sudden the villain get's caught slippin'. Hero starts beatin' that ass and it's over. Good night. He just wants to build up the Fag 3 and rip their hearts out. King, Flash and that other guy bout to eat roasted heart for dinner on Thursday.


There are also other movies. Movies in which the villain is heavily favored to win, the hero is the underdog, but then the hero surprisingly wins the opening round, then takes the lead and wins in a shocking victory over the villain, who people had thought would win all along. Sound familiar?

[Keepin' it real]

I'll be beyond elated if the Spurs win tonight. But I'll also be pumped to have a Game 7 for the ages. I think that would be the ultimate stage for Manu to thrive and LeBron to wilt.

[Slim Charles]

There are also other movies. Movies in which the villain is heavily favored to win, the hero is the underdog, but then the hero surprisingly wins the opening round, then takes the lead and wins in a shocking victory over the villain, who people had thought would win all along. Sound familiar?

That's what I'm saying you dumb shit. Dem Heats are the heroes. The King is the ultimate hero. Everyone thought the Spurs system was going to expose the Heat. All they exposed is their superior manhood. King is trying to stretch this out so that he can keep slangin' dem headphones and making det bonus money.

[tesseractive]

The Spurs don't care about fame, publicity, stats, individual awards or their place in history -- they just care about titles. They've spent seven years of constant hard work to get back to this point. They've fought through injuries, age, and the RJ era. Now they're back, one win away. So close they can taste it. There's no way they don't rise to this moment and get this done.

[slick'81]

Spurs need one more great team effort .the heat will b bringing it tonight

[GSH]

If the Spurs keep their turnovers to fewer than 14 tonight, they will probably be bringing home another LOB. Things get kind of iffy around 14, and more than that probably means a Game 7.

Last game, the Heat took 16 more FGA's than the Spurs. Near the end of the third quarter, the Heat had taken 15 more FGA's, so at least the Spurs kept it close near the end. Some of the difference is possessions that end in FT's, but most of it was just possessions where the Spurs didn't get a shot up. If the Heat hadn't shot around 40%, all those extra shot attempts would have been enough for them to win the game. The Spurs need to keep the FGA differential to around 7 or fewer tonight.

The Spurs only got 7 points from their bench in Game 5. I don't look for the starting five to put up 107 points between them again. If the Heat really do say on Danny Green, it's going to force someone else to come up big. That probably means Neal or Diaw. Neal never saw a shot that he didn't like, and Diaw never saw one he wanted to take. If I just HAD to choose between the two, I'd take the guy who at least gets shots up. So I really hope Gary Neal's shot is working. It would be a beautiful night for Tiago to finally step up. I'm not very optimistic about that, but if the Heat do move out to cover Green, they won't be able to pack the paint, so maybe...

The one simple thing that Tiago could do is just box out. The Heat got 7 more offensive boards than the Spurs in Game 5, and they aren't know to be a rebounding team. Worse, the Heat scored on just about every one of them. There's no excuse for them having that kind of advantage. Kawhi has been great from the SF position, and Tim picked it up last game. But for the Spurs to win this one, the whole team is going to have to commit to limiting the Heat to one shot per possession.

What I really want more than anything is to see Tim come out like he did in that OT against Golden State. He's always had big shoulders, and this is the time for him to do it again. He's missed a lot of shots at or near the rim in this series. Hopefully tonight makes up for all of that, and those shots are falling. And I wish he would remember that 15-footer off the glass. If Tim comes out strong, he can get the rest of the team fired up like no one else. And if he comes out strong, I think we'll start seeing that hopeless look on some of the Heat role players early in the game.

I still like the Spurs' chances tonight, no matter what the analysts say.

[cheguevara]

these were my magic numbers in game 5:
- Manu 20+pts
- Green 5+ 3ptrs

If either one happens, IMO we win the game.

The count starts now....

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

In past years, I would have been a nervous wreck on this day. This year, I've found some odd calm -- likely based on the fact that I agree that the Spurs aren't the favorite here. If you had told me in April that this team would have a 3-2 lead in the Finals against the Heat going back to Miami and that it's worst case scenario for this season was a road loss in Game 7 of the NBA Finals to the Super Friends, I would have thought you were crazy -- not because I didn't believe in the Spurs, but because there were plenty of reasons to believe that the Spurs could play their very best basketball and still come up short against the star-laden Heat. To be here now is a remarkable outcome for the Spurs.

Now win this bitch.

1.

Cosigned.

[baseline bum]

-The basic math is simple: If the Heat have a 70% chance of winning tonight (Vegas thinks their chances are better than that) and an 80% chance of winning Game 7 (that's probably an understatement), that gives Miami a 56% chance to win the championship. Even with this slightly homer view (IMO, at least), the Spurs are still sitting at 44%. That's a whole lot better than the 30% I gave them when the series started ....... but it's still a loooooooooooong way away from gassing up the riverboats.

timvp making a common error in modeling the events as independent. For instance, if the Spurs lose Game 6 it's likely from Parker getting injured, in which case Game 7 is much worse than an 80% chance of a Heat win tbh.

[DPG21920]

If the Spurs keep their turnovers to fewer than 14 tonight, they will probably be bringing home another LOB. Things get kind of iffy around 14, and more than that probably means a Game 7.

Last game, the Heat took 16 more FGA's than the Spurs. Near the end of the third quarter, the Heat had taken 15 more FGA's, so at least the Spurs kept it close near the end. Some of the difference is possessions that end in FT's, but most of it was just possessions where the Spurs didn't get a shot up. If the Heat hadn't shot around 40%, all those extra shot attempts would have been enough for them to win the game. The Spurs need to keep the FGA differential to around 7 or fewer tonight.

The Spurs only got 7 points from their bench in Game 5. I don't look for the starting five to put up 107 points between them again. If the Heat really do say on Danny Green, it's going to force someone else to come up big. That probably means Neal or Diaw. Neal never saw a shot that he didn't like, and Diaw never saw one he wanted to take. If I just HAD to choose between the two, I'd take the guy who at least gets shots up. So I really hope Gary Neal's shot is working. It would be a beautiful night for Tiago to finally step up. I'm not very optimistic about that, but if the Heat do move out to cover Green, they won't be able to pack the paint, so maybe...

The one simple thing that Tiago could do is just box out. The Heat got 7 more offensive boards than the Spurs in Game 5, and they aren't know to be a rebounding team. Worse, the Heat scored on just about every one of them. There's no excuse for them having that kind of advantage. Kawhi has been great from the SF position, and Tim picked it up last game. But for the Spurs to win this one, the whole team is going to have to commit to limiting the Heat to one shot per possession.

What I really want more than anything is to see Tim come out like he did in that OT against Golden State. He's always had big shoulders, and this is the time for him to do it again. He's missed a lot of shots at or near the rim in this series. Hopefully tonight makes up for all of that, and those shots are falling. And I wish he would remember that 15-footer off the glass. If Tim comes out strong, he can get the rest of the team fired up like no one else. And if he comes out strong, I think we'll start seeing that hopeless look on some of the Heat role players early in the game.

I still like the Spurs' chances tonight, no matter what the analysts say.

Fair points, but is it reasonable to expect MIA's big 3 to continue with monster games as well? With Ginobili stepping up, he could actually be the missing piece. Spurs were winning with Tim/Danny/TP production even with Manu barely chipping in. If Manu can fill the Danny void and Danny do a little better than Manu had been pre-breakout game, Spurs should be ok. IMO, MIA's big 3 have less margin for error. They cant have a sub par outing.

[DPG21920]

He's been a burger of fail with some fail-sauce all playoffs, that's for sure.

[tummer]

Unless you think the Spurs have less than a 33% chance per game of winning these last two games, SA is the favorite now. .33 + .33 / 2 = .5.

[pad300]

"If you shoot at king, you must kill him"
Ralph Waldo Emerson

We have shot at the King... Now it is time to kill him!

[lurker23]

My initial reaction after the Spurs won game 5 was that the Heat were likely to have the superior motivation and drive in game 6, a la games 2 and 4. However, the more I think about it, the more I think the Spurs will come out with an equal amount of passion and determination to finish this series off. The Big 3 especially...they're so close to another ring they can taste it. They will be focused and they will be ready.

That said, they're going to need a complete game to finish off a very talented Heat team. They're going to need top-notch defense, plus Spurs-style offensive execution and passing. If they can keep the ball moving, trust the system, and hit the open shot, they've got a great chance to make thousands of die-hard Spurs fans weep in joy.

[MeloHype]

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pr7Zv2bH3k0/UE5ds4UT7CI/AAAAAAAAAFM/-AzbgSHD3oY/s1600/theres+a+chance.jpg

[024]

Spurs are up 3-2 but the Heat are still favored. I agree with that. The Heat have demonstrated they bounce back hard from losses. And this one will be at home too. I expect an energy and intensity level similar to game 2... maybe even more since they get an additional "elimination game" boost. After that, game 7's in the finals historically go to the home team. So while the Spurs are up, I feel uneasy because the Heat won't go quietly in game 6, setting up a game 7 where the Spurs are at an extreme disadvantage.

The Spurs need to minimize their mistakes and pray Lebron continues to defer. A couple of TO's here and there and the Heat will explode to a double digit lead. They also need to somehow channel all the improbable stats from their wins during the series: 4 TO's in game 1, hot shooting from Green and Neal in game 3, and Manu not playing like a dead corpse in game 5. Most important factors are continue playing stellar defense and limiting turnovers, which should limit the Heat to 80-90 points, well within striking distance.

[RD2191]

I think you're wrong about the Miami big 3 DPG. Heat role players will step up at home. I wouldn't be surprised if Chalmers went off on us again. Spurs big 3 all have to play a near perfect game tonight.

[Kori Ellis]

Be happy that timvp still thinks the Heat have a better chance to win.

Me? I think the Heat will get up early and that the Spurs grind it out and end this thing tonight.

Don't "gas up the riverboats" yet, but we're almost there.

[baseline bum]

Be happy that timvp still thinks the Heat have a better chance to win.

Me? I think the Heat will get up early and that the Spurs grind it out and end this thing tonight.

Don't "gas up the riverboats" yet, but we're almost there.

106-82 Spurs, girl

[DPG21920]

Perhaps, but the Spurs were 2-2 with one of their big 3 completely MIA (pun). Sure they had other guys stepping up, but before the series if anyone would have posted Manu's averages through 4 games along with the fact MIA's bench averaging 30 PPG on 50+% shooting, most would say Spurs got swept.

Fact is, with those things happening, Spurs were 2-2. If MIA's big 3 don't put up a lot of numbers, they are far more likely to lose IMO than if the Spurs big 3 do the same. Both are critical, I just feel MIA's big 3 definitely has a lot more pressure.

[CosmicCowboy]

I believe

I just bet $50 to win $120 when the Spurs win tonight. +240 was just too hard to resist. Spurs are gonna bring it tonight.

[phxspurfan]

Spurs bench/Others (Leonard, Green, Neal, Splitter) have soo much swag right now, it's hard not to favor the Spurs even with Miami at home. Miami Big 3 have to make up for the chasm of difference our bench and our Others have made during the last two games. Danny Green should be series MVP for sure.

[ALVAREZ6]

Come on mothafuckas come on....


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWhyr4yAkFE

[GSH]

Fair points, but is it reasonable to expect MIA's big 3 to continue with monster games as well? With Ginobili stepping up, he could actually be the missing piece. Spurs were winning with Tim/Danny/TP production even with Manu barely chipping in. If Manu can fill the Danny void and Danny do a little better than Manu had been pre-breakout game, Spurs should be ok. IMO, MIA's big 3 have less margin for error. They cant have a sub par outing.


Here's what I was really trying to say - the first thing on the list is turnovers. If the Spurs limit their TO's to less than 14, I think they win the game. Period.

If they give up more than 14 TO's, they're going to need to make a couple of other things on that list to go their way. Because if they give up 16-17-18 TO's again (on the road, in a closeout game), there's no way they are holding Miami to 92 points. Which means somebody off the bench has to have a better game. If they give up that many TO's AND the second chance points, it's going to be an avalanche, and the Spurs would have to hit everything they look at to win.

If the refs allow all the belly-bumping and elbow-slapping (and they probably will), the Heat are going to get some steals, and fast-break points. I think the Spurs would be wise to pay special attention to boxing out from the very beginning, and getting a bench player some points early wouldn't hurt, either.

[shingo_318]

Sprint, full speed ahead, we win!

[Solid D]

I don't know what to expect tonight but it's Miami's move to show their hand. If they can't stop the isolation dribble drives the Spurs ran in Game 5, they will have problems...unless the Spurs have a poor shooting night. I will thoroughly enjoy watching the moves and counter-moves. The only fly in the ointment for the Spurs will be if the Heat's fierce physical pressure causes them to wilt and cry about frequent non-calls.

Kenny Mauer lets them play, especially at the rim but Joey Crawford should balance that out somewhat. If the Spurs can keep their wits, play as a team and be strong with the ball, Spurs will win tonight!!!

:ihit

[ohmwrecker]

Timvp, does Kori know you're posting? Who is looking after you right now?

[spurspokesman]

-Welp, here we are. One win away. 1. It's not the world's greatest situation because winning another road game in Miami might be the most difficult thing the Spurs have ever tried to do -- but I can't complain at all. Before the series, if you tell me the Spurs would take a 3-2 lead into Miami, I'd be elated. (Obviously, since Heat in 5, etc, etc.)
I agree. Called spurs in 7, BUT...... I would welcome a spurs win and 5th championship tonight.
-This underdog role is so different emotionally than the previous four championships (:lol). At no point in the past did I ever feel like the Spurs were anything but the favorites in the 1999, 2003, 2005 and 2007 Finals. This series, however, I've never thought the percentages made the Spurs the favorites -- and I still don't heading into Game 6.

-The basic math is simple: If the Heat have a 70% chance of winning tonight (Vegas thinks their chances are better than that) and an 80% chance of winning Game 7 (that's probably an understatement), that gives Miami a 56% chance to win the championship. Even with this slightly homer view (IMO, at least), the Spurs are still sitting at 44%. That's a whole lot better than the 30% I gave them when the series started ....... but it's still a loooooooooooong way away from gassing up the riverboats.

-I really think tonight is the game the Spurs have to win if they're going to come out on top. A road team hasn't won a Game 7 in the Finals in 35 years (the same holds true for baseball, FWIW). I don't think that's a fluke. Winning a road Game 7 is extremely difficult. The emotion and the energy is just too much for the road team to overcome. One example is Game 6 against the Thunder last year -- which was basically OKC's Game 7. That game was damn near impossible for the Spurs to win, especially when you factor in the refs getting swept away in the emotion. Another example is when the Spurs won Game 7 back in 2005 against the Pistons. Detroit played better for a majority of that game ... but even that historically hardnosed, mentally tough team cracked as the AT&T Center erupted down the stretch.

-So yeah, Pop has to pull out all the stops tonight. Minute limits be damned. Pop can't factor in that there is another game in two days.

-All I want tonight is for the Spurs to keep it close and give themselves a chance. If they are within striking distance down the stretch, that's all I can ask for at this point. Keep it close and fight for it.

-I expect some pretty obvious adjustments from the Heat. First of all, Miller will be replaced in the starting lineup. I could see Miami going with Ray Allen, Shane Battier or even Norris Cole (if they think Cole is a Ginobili stopper). Most likely Allen ... with Battier being the other possibility. They won't switch screens as much -- if at all. They will also be driving to the hoop as much as humanly possible.

-Could Miami go back to a big lineup? I guess it's possible. Starting Haslem next to Bosh would be somewhat surprising. Does Pop respond by taking Ginobili out of the starting lineup? I hope not. That worked too well last game. Leonard can guard Haslem to start the halves and then Pop can just mix in bigger lineups off the bench.

-I'm excited/scared/nervous right now. I can only imagine what the players are feeling.

-The big difference in Miami will be the Heat's role players playing much better. Outside of Allen, they all pretty much sucked in San Antonio. The Spurs have to hope that not all of them go off in these upcoming games (or game).

-As far as the Spurs are concerned, it's down to execution. Limit turnovers, crash the glass and execute the game plan. That's what this series has boiled down to.

-prayingdog.jpg, vomit.gif, dannyferrydivingontheground.jpg, one.png

-It's going to take the best performance of the season to get this done. I believe they have it in 'em.

1.

Believe.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The heat need transition buckets and/or lost of midrange jump shots going in. Our half court defense has been very good.

[SnakeBoy]

I'm expecting this to be like the GSW game where the Spurs get their ass thoroughly kicked and then win the game.

[TD 21]

This whole odds thing is stupid and has nothing to do with these two teams. I don't care what the stats say or the sentiment is, at this point, the Heat are not the favorites. Those numbers can't account for a legendary core having what is almost certainly their final chance at glory and the desperation/intensity level that they will treat this with.

I can't imagine Pop has a quick hook or tries to see what he can get away with, minutes-wise. We all know this is their best chance to get this done and cliche as it sounds, they need to treat it like a game 7. Besides, with the intensity this game will be played with, whether key players play 3-5 minutes more than he's comfortable with isn't going to make a difference in game 7. At this point, guys are mostly playing off of adrenaline anyway.

In the unlikely event the Heat go back big, I wouldn't put Leonard on Haslem; I'd put Ginobili on him. If you put Leonard, then Green has to start on James and Ginobili on Wade (far less worrisome obviously, but also not ideal). You don't prioritize an undersized, virtual non scorer over the best player in the world.

[spurraider21]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pm4fQRl72k&feature=player_embedded

[50 cent]

I"m not nearly as nervous for this game as I was even Game 1. I don't really know what to make of that, but I'm calm.

[Big Empty]

miami has all the pressure on them too. They need to beat us two games in a row. I dont see it happening. As long as the Refs dont get involved this game is ours. Spurs in 6

[therealtruth]

Hopefully the 7 game Pacers series catches up with the Heat. It's tough to win 2 7 game series in a row.

[Obstructed_View]

Don't know if it's been mentioned, but the Spurs find themselves one win away from a title but also a team with the best big man in the game. Said big man has yet to put up a truly dominating performance. Much like Manu, health has not been the reason it hasn't happened. Many casual fans are discussing LeBron James and his legacy, but Tim Duncan is aware of how tonight's game will change how he's viewed.

Timmy has no tomorrow. I expect him to play tonight till the wheels fall off or he's hoisting a trophy.


UNO.

[rascal]

They won the first game of the series in Miami. That should tell you that getting one out of two is not only possible but probable.

[Brazil]

So you say that we have a chance ?

[Budkin]

Limit TOs and play great transition D and we got this shit.

[EVAY]

In past years, I would have been a nervous wreck on this day. This year, I've found some odd calm -- likely based on the fact that I agree that the Spurs aren't the favorite here. If you had told me in April that this team would have a 3-2 lead in the Finals against the Heat going back to Miami and that it's worst case scenario for this season was a road loss in Game 7 of the NBA Finals to the Super Friends, I would have thought you were crazy -- not because I didn't believe in the Spurs, but because there were plenty of reasons to believe that the Spurs could play their very best basketball and still come up short against the star-laden Heat. To be here now is a remarkable outcome for the Spurs.

Now win this bitch.

1.

You said it better than I could. But this is EXACTLY how I feel. No nervousness at all. Game 5? Total nervous wreck. But after what they did on their home court on the last game of potentially the last Finals they will ever play together? No, I am thrilled beyond belief already.

But go get 'em fellas!!

[J.T.]

-I'm excited/scared/nervous right now. I can only imagine what the players are feeling.

This describes how I have felt since Miami beat Indiana.

[Splits]

Books still have Miami as the favorites to win the series, but not by much:

http://i829.photobucket.com/albums/zz212/akelch/spursheatodds.png

[Russ]

Keep Bosh off the offensive glass -- he killed them with offensive rebounds and put backs in Game 5.

[playbonner15]

Of course the Heat are still favorites. "The 1978 Bullets were the last road team to win Game 7 of the Finals". But if this is the year the Spurs break all kinds of records then they will win the ship. I hope the guys fight like everything is on the line :ihit