Arcadian
07-29-2013, 03:57 AM
The current issue of Psychological Science has published this research paper by Yigal Attali titled "Perceived Hotness Affects Behavior of Basketball Players and Coaches."
He studied the "hot-hand" phenomenon (believing that shots are more likely to make following a make) by examining the likelihood of making a shot following a made shot across all NBA players during the 2010-11 season.
Basically, he found a "negative recency effect," the tendency for shots to be less likely to make following a made shot (relative to baseline). Not only does perceived hotness not correlate with improved success - it actually correlates with worse performance.
The finding extends to coaches as well. Coaches were more likely to bench a player who had missed his most recent shot attempt during a timeout.
Abstract
Although “hot hands” in basketball are illusory, the belief in them is so robust that it not only has sparked many
debates but may also affect the behavior of players and coaches. On the basis of an entire National Basketball
Association season’s worth of data, the research reported here shows that even a single successful shot suffices to
increase a player’s likelihood of taking the next team shot, increase the average distance from which this next shot is
taken, decrease the probability that this next shot is successful, and decrease the probability that the coach will replace
the player.
Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) analyzed
the shooting of a professional National Basketball
Association (NBA) team over the course of a season and
found that the probability of success on any given shot
was essentially independent of previous shots. [...] However, the possibility of such
a negative recency effect has not been considered in the
literature. The debate has been limited to the question of
whether there is a positive recency effect or no effect at
all.
I don't see a way to attach PDFs to posts here. If anyone would like the full article, just let me know and I'll send it to you.
He studied the "hot-hand" phenomenon (believing that shots are more likely to make following a make) by examining the likelihood of making a shot following a made shot across all NBA players during the 2010-11 season.
Basically, he found a "negative recency effect," the tendency for shots to be less likely to make following a made shot (relative to baseline). Not only does perceived hotness not correlate with improved success - it actually correlates with worse performance.
The finding extends to coaches as well. Coaches were more likely to bench a player who had missed his most recent shot attempt during a timeout.
Abstract
Although “hot hands” in basketball are illusory, the belief in them is so robust that it not only has sparked many
debates but may also affect the behavior of players and coaches. On the basis of an entire National Basketball
Association season’s worth of data, the research reported here shows that even a single successful shot suffices to
increase a player’s likelihood of taking the next team shot, increase the average distance from which this next shot is
taken, decrease the probability that this next shot is successful, and decrease the probability that the coach will replace
the player.
Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) analyzed
the shooting of a professional National Basketball
Association (NBA) team over the course of a season and
found that the probability of success on any given shot
was essentially independent of previous shots. [...] However, the possibility of such
a negative recency effect has not been considered in the
literature. The debate has been limited to the question of
whether there is a positive recency effect or no effect at
all.
I don't see a way to attach PDFs to posts here. If anyone would like the full article, just let me know and I'll send it to you.