irishock
08-03-2013, 02:37 AM
1. Dwyane Wade (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/1987/dwyane-wade), Miami Heat (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/mia/miami-heat)
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.8Wade is entering a perilous time of life for 2-guards, but the trends in his game are so stable, ATH is predicting an exact repeat of his .658 winning percentage from last season. His knee problems could undermine his value in a couple of ways. His block rate dropped last year and might be a sign of defensive slippage. Also, he may not play as much, and I've been watching for an Eric Spoelstra quote saying as much.
http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/3992.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false
Harden
2. James Harden (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3992/james-harden), Houston Rockets (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/hou/houston-rockets)
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.7The winner of the most improved player award is often just the guy who got the opportunity he always deserved. Harden finished seventh in that voting last season, so there wasn't as much recognition for how good he was in Oklahoma City as there should have been. The biggest uptick in his game was the fact that he played nearly 1,000 more minutes than he ever had before. This season, I wouldn't expect that playing time to dip, and while a high-volume perimeter player would be hard-pressed to be more efficient than Harden already is, it will be fascinating to see if Dwight Howard's presence propels him to the front of the MVP race.
http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/272.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false
Ginobili
3. Manu Ginobili (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/272/manu-ginobili), San Antonio Spurs (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/sa/san-antonio-spurs)
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.0While ATH sees Tony Parker taking a slight, age-related step back in 2013-14, the older Ginobili has long since passed and, in effect, beaten the aging curve. Playing time has been the major concession in Ginobili's game, and it's the only reason that he doesn't project to challenge Wade and Harden for the title of the NBA's best 2-guard. Ginobili's winning percentage did dip a little last year, and at age 36, there's no guarantee he'll recover the lost efficiency. However, part of it was due to 3-point shooting and if you look at his career, it's been an every-other-year proposition for Ginobili in that category. If the pattern holds, this will be one of the "up" years.
http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/110.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false
Bryant
4. Kobe Bryant (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/110/kobe-bryant), Los Angeles Lakers (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/lal/los-angeles-lakers)
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.0Bryant should change his uniform number to a question mark, because that's how much confidence I have in this projection. When will he return? How much, if anything, will he have lost from his game? Nobody, not even Kobe, knows the answer to these questions. What I do know is that last year, amid the rubble of the Lakers' lost season, he was as good as ever before wearing down towards the end of the campaign. 17-year veterans should not be hitting the 3,000-minute plateau.
http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/6580.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false
Beal
5. Bradley Beal (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6580/bradley-beal), Washington Wizards (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/wsh/washington-wizards)
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 6.1I love it when the youngbloods crack these lists, and ATH loves Beal. I'm not thrilled the system is forecasting Beal to knock down 43 percent of his 3s, even though that's a strength in his game. That category is the most variable on a player's stat line, and I distrust such bold predictions. However consider this: The only teenager to ever shoot a higher percentage from deep with an above-average usage rate was Kyrie Irving (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6442/kyrie-irving). Beal is off to a great start.
http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/2799.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false
Williams
6. Louis Williams (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2799/louis-williams), Atlanta Hawks (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/atl/atlanta-hawks)
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 6.1Williams is tough to classify in terms of position, but I think it's safe to say his game is more of a 2-guard than a 1. When healthy, Sweet Lou is one of the most efficient scorers in the league, with a terrific complement of volume, foul-drawing, playmaking and a solid, but not spectacular, deep stroke. He's also coming off a major knee injury, and you have to be concerned that the quickness and explosion Williams has relied upon will be diminished. For what it's worth, I saw him walking around my hotel in Las Vegas and he looked fine. Unfortunately, it wasn't on a basketball court.
http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/2444.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false
Smith
7. J.R. Smith (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2444/jr-smith), New York Knicks (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/ny/new-york-knicks)
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.4Smith is yet another player who enters the 2013-14 season with an injury cloud hanging over his head. When healthy, he's one of the most explosive bench scorers around, though his streakiness means sometimes his impact affects the wrong team. Nevertheless, on a Knicks squad strapped for shot creators, he's in a perfect situation for his skill set. Smith, believe it or not, decreased the frequency of 3-point shots taken in relation to possessions used last season, which undermined his winning percentage. However, Knicks fans will take whatever regular-season performance they can get if he can only translate it to the postseason. As a Knick, Smith has shot 32.6 percent from the field in 16 postseason games.
http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/3988.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false
Green
8. Danny Green (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3988/danny-green), San Antonio Spurs
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.2The top shooting guards are the guys who have the ball in their hands a lot and make plays for others as well as themselves. Green, though, is a perfect example of how you can still offer premium value by being uber-efficient and being a threat without the ball. As we saw in the latter part of the Finals, there is a ceiling to how much offense Green can create for himself, but teams have to account for him at all times. It doesn't hurt that he plays big minutes on one of the NBA's elite defensive teams.
http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/2751.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false
Ellis
9. Monta Ellis (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2751/monta-ellis), Dallas Mavericks (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/dal/dallas-mavericks)
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 4.8Did you know that in his third NBA season, Ellis put up a .580 true shooting percentage while playing 3,073 minutes? Last season, he played 3,076 minutes, and his TS percentage was .493. If Rick Carlisle can somehow extract Ellis' youthful efficiency, the Mavericks will really have something.
http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/2394.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false
Martin
10. Kevin Martin (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2394/kevin-martin), Minnesota Timberwolves (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/min/minnesota-timberwolves)
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 4.7Martin's value has always been enhanced by his ability to attack the lane off of close-outs and get to the line. Now that he's entering his age-31 season, you do have to worry that that skill is ?diminishing, as his foul-drawing rate has been way down the past two years. Minnesota signed Martin for his floor-spacing ability, and he's solid at that, if a bit up-and-down. It'll be essential that he stick to the role he's given, playing off Kevin Love (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3449/kevin-love) and Ricky Rubio (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/4011/ricky-rubio).
:lol Wins Above Replacement
:lol same shit had Trout as MVP last year
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.8Wade is entering a perilous time of life for 2-guards, but the trends in his game are so stable, ATH is predicting an exact repeat of his .658 winning percentage from last season. His knee problems could undermine his value in a couple of ways. His block rate dropped last year and might be a sign of defensive slippage. Also, he may not play as much, and I've been watching for an Eric Spoelstra quote saying as much.
http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/3992.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false
Harden
2. James Harden (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3992/james-harden), Houston Rockets (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/hou/houston-rockets)
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.7The winner of the most improved player award is often just the guy who got the opportunity he always deserved. Harden finished seventh in that voting last season, so there wasn't as much recognition for how good he was in Oklahoma City as there should have been. The biggest uptick in his game was the fact that he played nearly 1,000 more minutes than he ever had before. This season, I wouldn't expect that playing time to dip, and while a high-volume perimeter player would be hard-pressed to be more efficient than Harden already is, it will be fascinating to see if Dwight Howard's presence propels him to the front of the MVP race.
http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/272.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false
Ginobili
3. Manu Ginobili (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/272/manu-ginobili), San Antonio Spurs (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/sa/san-antonio-spurs)
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.0While ATH sees Tony Parker taking a slight, age-related step back in 2013-14, the older Ginobili has long since passed and, in effect, beaten the aging curve. Playing time has been the major concession in Ginobili's game, and it's the only reason that he doesn't project to challenge Wade and Harden for the title of the NBA's best 2-guard. Ginobili's winning percentage did dip a little last year, and at age 36, there's no guarantee he'll recover the lost efficiency. However, part of it was due to 3-point shooting and if you look at his career, it's been an every-other-year proposition for Ginobili in that category. If the pattern holds, this will be one of the "up" years.
http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/110.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false
Bryant
4. Kobe Bryant (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/110/kobe-bryant), Los Angeles Lakers (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/lal/los-angeles-lakers)
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.0Bryant should change his uniform number to a question mark, because that's how much confidence I have in this projection. When will he return? How much, if anything, will he have lost from his game? Nobody, not even Kobe, knows the answer to these questions. What I do know is that last year, amid the rubble of the Lakers' lost season, he was as good as ever before wearing down towards the end of the campaign. 17-year veterans should not be hitting the 3,000-minute plateau.
http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/6580.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false
Beal
5. Bradley Beal (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6580/bradley-beal), Washington Wizards (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/wsh/washington-wizards)
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 6.1I love it when the youngbloods crack these lists, and ATH loves Beal. I'm not thrilled the system is forecasting Beal to knock down 43 percent of his 3s, even though that's a strength in his game. That category is the most variable on a player's stat line, and I distrust such bold predictions. However consider this: The only teenager to ever shoot a higher percentage from deep with an above-average usage rate was Kyrie Irving (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6442/kyrie-irving). Beal is off to a great start.
http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/2799.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false
Williams
6. Louis Williams (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2799/louis-williams), Atlanta Hawks (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/atl/atlanta-hawks)
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 6.1Williams is tough to classify in terms of position, but I think it's safe to say his game is more of a 2-guard than a 1. When healthy, Sweet Lou is one of the most efficient scorers in the league, with a terrific complement of volume, foul-drawing, playmaking and a solid, but not spectacular, deep stroke. He's also coming off a major knee injury, and you have to be concerned that the quickness and explosion Williams has relied upon will be diminished. For what it's worth, I saw him walking around my hotel in Las Vegas and he looked fine. Unfortunately, it wasn't on a basketball court.
http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/2444.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false
Smith
7. J.R. Smith (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2444/jr-smith), New York Knicks (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/ny/new-york-knicks)
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.4Smith is yet another player who enters the 2013-14 season with an injury cloud hanging over his head. When healthy, he's one of the most explosive bench scorers around, though his streakiness means sometimes his impact affects the wrong team. Nevertheless, on a Knicks squad strapped for shot creators, he's in a perfect situation for his skill set. Smith, believe it or not, decreased the frequency of 3-point shots taken in relation to possessions used last season, which undermined his winning percentage. However, Knicks fans will take whatever regular-season performance they can get if he can only translate it to the postseason. As a Knick, Smith has shot 32.6 percent from the field in 16 postseason games.
http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/3988.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false
Green
8. Danny Green (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3988/danny-green), San Antonio Spurs
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.2The top shooting guards are the guys who have the ball in their hands a lot and make plays for others as well as themselves. Green, though, is a perfect example of how you can still offer premium value by being uber-efficient and being a threat without the ball. As we saw in the latter part of the Finals, there is a ceiling to how much offense Green can create for himself, but teams have to account for him at all times. It doesn't hurt that he plays big minutes on one of the NBA's elite defensive teams.
http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/2751.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false
Ellis
9. Monta Ellis (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2751/monta-ellis), Dallas Mavericks (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/dal/dallas-mavericks)
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 4.8Did you know that in his third NBA season, Ellis put up a .580 true shooting percentage while playing 3,073 minutes? Last season, he played 3,076 minutes, and his TS percentage was .493. If Rick Carlisle can somehow extract Ellis' youthful efficiency, the Mavericks will really have something.
http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/2394.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false
Martin
10. Kevin Martin (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2394/kevin-martin), Minnesota Timberwolves (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/min/minnesota-timberwolves)
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 4.7Martin's value has always been enhanced by his ability to attack the lane off of close-outs and get to the line. Now that he's entering his age-31 season, you do have to worry that that skill is ?diminishing, as his foul-drawing rate has been way down the past two years. Minnesota signed Martin for his floor-spacing ability, and he's solid at that, if a bit up-and-down. It'll be essential that he stick to the role he's given, playing off Kevin Love (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3449/kevin-love) and Ricky Rubio (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/4011/ricky-rubio).
:lol Wins Above Replacement
:lol same shit had Trout as MVP last year