Spurs Salaries, 2013-2014 Edition

[Bruno]

Whenever a team sign a player or do a trade, there aren't only basketball considerations but also financial considerations. Here is a look at Spurs' financial status:

Spurs 13-14 salaries :

Players with a guaranteed contract :
Spurs have 15 players with a fully guaranteed salary:
Tony Parker: $12,500,000
Tim Duncan: $10,361,446
Tiago Splitter: $10,000,000
Manu Ginobili: $7,500,000
Boris Diaw: $4,702,500
Matt Bonner: $3,945,000
Danny Green: $3,762,500
Marco Belinelli: $2,750,000
Kawhi Leonard: $1,887,840
Jeff Pendergraph: $1,750,000
Nando De Colo: $1,463,000
Patrick Mills: $1,133,950
Cory Joseph: $1,120,920
Aron Baynes: $788,872 (count for $884,293 against the tax)
Malcolm Thomas: $702,233

The total salary for these 15 players is $64,323,261 ($64,418,682 against the tax)

The Luxury Tax:

What is the luxury tax?
The luxury tax is a mechanism whose first goal is to reduce the differences between the richest and the poorest franchises by penalizing teams that overspend the others teams. Penalties have considerably raise with the new CBA to make it very expensive for teams to go way over the luxury tax threshold.
For more details, check Larry Coon's CBA FAQ (http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q21) .

The triple penalty system:
A team above the tax is three time penalized. First, they had to pay the luxury tax. Second, they don't get a share of the luxury tax money given by the NBA to teams. Third, it makes it more likely to have to pay the repeater tax in the future.
The last two effects push teams that are just above the tax threshold to go under it.

Luxury tax threshold in 13-14:
The 2013-2014 luxury tax threshold is $71,748,000.

Total luxury tax paid in 13-14:
5 teams should pay some luxury tax for a total amount of about $150M.
Teams below the tax will get 1/50th of these $150M (if only 5 teams end up paying the tax), that is to say $3M.

Impact of the luxury tax on Spurs for 13-14:
Spurs are a comfortable $7,329,318 below the tax with 15 players under contract. With a that big margin, it's safe to say the luxury tax won't have some kind of impact on Spurs this year.


Spurs 14-15 salaries :

Players with a guaranteed contract :
Tiago Splitter: $9,250,000
Manu Ginobili: $7,000,000
Danny Green: $4,025,000
Marco Belinelli: $2,873,750
Jeff Pendergraph: $1,828,750
Kawhi Leonard: $2,894,059
Cory Joseph: $2,023,261

The total salary of these 7 players is $24,894,820

Players with a partially or non guaranteed contract:
Tony Parker: $12,500,000
His contract is $3.5M guaranteed and becomes fully guaranteed on July 1st 2014.
Malcolm Thomas: $948,163
His contract is fully non-guaranteed.

Players with a player option:
Tim Duncan: $10,000,000

Total salaries:
These 10 players have a combined salary of $53,342,983


The 2014 summer and Spurs' cap space situation:

The deciding factor for the 2014 summer will be what will be Duncan's choice. Will he still play one year or opt out of his contract to retire?

The amnesty rule:
Only Parker can be amnestied but it's highly unlikely that he will be. Spurs will be one of the team that won't use that the amnesty provision on a player.

The stretch provision:
Players signed under the current CBA (all Spurs players except Parker) can be waived and have their salary spread over twice the remaining years in their contract plus one. It could allow Spurs to create more capspace.

Spurs first round pick:
Spurs could have cap holds for two first round picks: Livio Jean-Charles and the 2014 first round pick. They could disappear if Jean-Charles is stashed another year in Europe and if the 2014 first round pick is traded or used on a "stashed" prospect.

The room exception:
It's a new exception for teams below the cap. Its value next summer will be $2.732M with a max length of 2 years.

Salary cap for 2014-2015:
In June 2013, NBA's projections for 2014-2015 were a $62.1M salary cap and a $75.7 luxury tax threshold.

How much cap space Spurs could had in the 2014 summer:
It's early to answer at that question but let's give it a try.
Let's make first some assumptions:
- The salary cap is $62.1M.
- Parker is kept.
- Jean-Charles will stay in Europe for the 2014-2015 season and the 2014 pick is stashed or traded.
- Malcolm Thomas is waived.

Spurs team salary during the 2014 summer:
Tony Parker: $12,500,000
Tiago Splitter: $9,250,000
Manu Ginobili: $7,000,000
Danny Green: $4,025,000
Kawhi Leonard: $2,894,059
Marco Belinelli: 2,873,750
Cory Joseph: $2,023,261
Jeff Pendergraph: $1,828,750
Tim Duncan or a roster cap hold: $10,000,000 or $507,336
Roster cap hold: $507,336
Roster cap hold: $507,336
Roster cap hold: $507,336

Total with Duncan opting in: $53,916,828
Total with Duncan opting out: $44,424,164

In this scenario, Spurs will have $8.2M in cap space if Duncan wants to keep playing and $17.7M if he wants to retire.


After 2014-2015:

Spurs will have only one player after the 2014-2015 season with Tiago Splitter. His 2015-2016 salary will be $8.5M and his 2016-2017 salary will be $8.25M. It will allow Spurs to be in a great financial situation for the post Duncan era.


PS: Go to ShamSports (data.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/spurs.jsp) for a salary tab and more details about contracts' specifics. Thanks to Sham for his great work.

[elemento]

Thanks Bruno :toast

Just saw that shamp updated his website finally

[Mel_13]

Thanks Bruno, :toast

This thread is a valuable resource every season. The work that you put in to maintain it is appreciated.

[Spursfanfromafar]

Thanks, Bruno.

Interestingly, the Howard rebuff has seen the Lakers experience a significant drop in their luxury tax payments.

[Bruno]

Interestingly, the Howard rebuff has seen the Lakers experience a significant drop in their luxury tax payments.

Yep but it will increase their revenue sharing contribution.

Spending a lot of money on players salaries and luxury tax for big market teams isn't that crazy. 30% of the profits are taken by the revenue sharing and then the IRS takes a big part of what remains. A team spending a lot of money on players will also be better, generate more money and raise the franchise value.

[TD 21]

The bad news: That $8.2M guesstimate sounds great, but before anyone goes bringing up big names, realize that they're probably going to want to re-sign Diaw, sign Bertans and of course, there's always the possibility that the '14 1st, if kept, is on the roster. That takes care of $4-5M right there.

The good news: If Joseph and Pendergraph, can prove to be solutions at backup PG and C, respectively, then the only need will be backup SF. At this writing, $3-4M should be enough to sign a (Marvin) Williams or Ariza.

[Bruno]

if Spurs re-sign some of their free agents next summer and if Duncan opt in, Spurs will likely take the MLE+LLE road.

[Chinook]

The bad news: That $8.2M guesstimate sounds great, but before anyone goes bringing up big names, realize that they're probably going to want to re-sign Diaw, sign Bertans and of course, there's always the possibility that the '14 1st, if kept, is on the roster. That takes care of $4-5M right there.

The good news: If Joseph and Pendergraph, can prove to be solutions at backup PG and C, respectively, then the only need will be backup SF. At this writing, $3-4M should be enough to sign a (Marvin) Williams or Ariza.

Or the MLE.

I see very few scenarios in which the Spurs use cap space next season if Duncan doesn't retire.

[TD 21]

Yeah, they could easily go that route. Either way, the point is, as usual, nobody should be expecting anything big.

Even Williams and Ariza (after the Lakers realize their cache isn't what it was and strikeout on the big names, they probably bring him back) are unlikely, since they're not mixed, foreign or white American.

[Chinook]

Didn't see Bruno answer first. I think the biggest move for next season's cap space could be a mid-season trade this year.

[benefactor]

Thanks. Having all this info in one place is always nice and your work is appreciated.

[Bruno]

Thanks for all the thanks. :toast


When you look at the contracts given this summer, it really looks like Spurs aren't interested in 2014 cap space. Their target is getting 2015 cap space.

For next summer, I wouldn't be surprised if Spurs are really wary to offer contract longer than 1 year that will eat their 2015 cap space. For example, Diaw would be re-signed to a 1 year contract with a high salary.

The blueprint of a trade Spurs could do this season would be to trade some of their expiring contracts (Bonner, De Colo, Mills, Baynes and maybe Diaw) for a player with one more year on his contract. I was suggesting a trade like Bonner and De Colo for Bass but you could, of course, replace Bass with another gettable player whose contract expire in 2015.

[loveforthegame]

Bows to you once again Bruno. This stuff always gives me a headache if I try on my own. Really appreciate you breaking it all down for the rest of us. :tu

[DrunkTXLabrat]

quality thread.

i'm of the opinion that the splitter contract is actually a bargain. i expect him to have a chip on his shoulder next season. and manu is manu. plus he isn't gonna play very much longer so his deal is fine. besides that, the spurs have a lot of good players for cheap prices.

bonner and diaw are pretty steep. they reek of trade machine threads.

[TXstbobcat]

Thank you Bruno!

[Big P]

Great information as usual..great read..:toast

[Spursfanfromafar]

Thanks for all the thanks. :toast


When you look at the contracts given this summer, it really looks like Spurs aren't interested in 2014 cap space. Their target is getting 2015 cap space.

For next summer, I wouldn't be surprised if Spurs are really wary to offer contract longer than 1 year that will eat their 2015 cap space. For example, Diaw would be re-signed to a 1 year contract with a high salary.

The blueprint of a trade Spurs could do this season would be to trade some of their expiring contracts (Bonner, De Colo, Mills, Baynes and maybe Diaw) for a player with one more year on his contract. I was suggesting a trade like Bonner and De Colo for Bass but you could, of course, replace Bass with another gettable player whose contract expire in 2015.

The plan seems good enough, provided the Spurs do well this season (2013-14). It has become a cliche to claim that the Spurs' window is closing, but I do think that 2013-14 is more feasible as a contention year than 2014-15.

So your point about the importance of a mid-season trade is very well taken.

A trade has to happen to seek a small ball PF playing decent SF instead of Bonner, who I frankly has outlived his limited but unique utility and is replaceable from within the Spurs' current squad (Diaw can stretch the floor and Pendergraph can defend the post & rebound even better). Diaw will remain, his unique passing skills, good Bball IQ and ability to defend with good lateral quickness makes him an asset despite his several flaws (passivity, low shooting FG% and low rebounding numbers).

Either or two of De Colo/Mills/Baynes could be used as filler/talent accrual in a mid-season trade. I expect the Spurs to use a lot of scrutiny to find out market inefficiencies, talent/veteran misfits in other teams over the season to plug their "hole" and attempt to upgrade themselves over the course of the season before the playoffs. They did that effectively in the 2011-12 season, setting up their 2012-13 season run, actually (by cutting down on defensive issues in 2011-12 through a good training camp and player development strategy in the 2012-13 offseason and course of the season).

But they still missed a beat in 2012-13 to repeat their previous season's in-season improvement through trade. It could have perhaps been useful for them in the finals against Miami for example (imagine Trevor Ariza, obtained by trading SJax instead of Tracy McGrady as Kawhi's backup).

I hope in 2013-14, they will be as aggressive and creative as they were in 2011-12.

[objective]

doing some quick math, using the wikipedia numbers for the salary cap by year and Basketball Reference for salaries (though I am 99% sure their numbers are wrong for Horry in 04-05 based on media reports and adjusted accordingly) . . .

the 13-14 Spurs will be the cheapest Spurs team by % of the cap since 2003-2004. Based on how things look for the next season, the Spurs will finish out the big three era rather cheaply.

[Bruno]

Yep, if you do it since 2005 and the new CBA that created a luxury tax threshold known before the season, Spurs have never been that below the luxury tax.

Spurs' payroll compared to the luxury tax threshold:
05-06: +$0.9M
06-07: +$0.2M
07-08: -$0.6M
08-09: -$0.1M
09-10: +$8.8M
10-11: -$0.6M
11-12: +$2.5M
12-13: -$0.5M
13-14: -$8.0M

Over the past 9 years, Spurs have been 6 times within $1M of the tax level. The only time where they clearly went over it was 09-10 when they made the HWSNBN gamble thinking that overspending was the only way to compete with teams like Lakers.

To me, it's very likely that Spurs FO has the green light from the ownership to spend more money if they want. With the new trade rules (150%+$100K) and the big margin they had below the tax, it opens a lot of possibilities trade wise. For example, with a Bonner+De Colo+Mills package, Spurs could take up to $9.9M back in salaries.

[Strategic]

Over the past 9 years, Spurs have been 6 times within $1M of the tax level. The only time where they clearly went over it was 09-10 when they made the HWSNBN gamble thinking that overspending was the only way to compete with teams like Lakers.

To me, it's very likely that Spurs FO has the green light from the ownership to spend more money if they want. With the new trade rules (150%+$100K) and the big margin they had below the tax, it opens a lot of possibilities trade wise. For example, with a Bonner+De Colo+Mills package, Spurs could take up to $9.9M back in salaries.With TD and MG taking less money for the sake of the team it's easy to envision the romantic notion of the younger team leaders i.e. TP, KL and DG, doing the same. Yes, I still consider Tony as young and I believe that as long as Joseph stays with the club the team is in good position point guard wise. Aren't the Spurs two short years away from having to spend some large money in order to stay competitive?

[look_at_g_shred]

Anyone know what type of team we could piece together after 2015? Obviously our "big three" will be TP, KL, and Splitter. But as far as getting another star and a great role player. Thanks guys.

[DrunkTXLabrat]

i think danny green will still be around too. so i'd say a josh smith type restricted free agent would be the free agency target. and with an old tp, a fully emerged kl, plus splitter and green. the spurs should still be a playoff team.

[DrunkTXLabrat]

tobias harris or derrick williams

[BackHome]

Would like for us to replace Bonner, CoJo, and Nando ....if we can trade them this year even better....

[will_spurs]

Bruno, thanks (again) for providing the correct figures. I was going by the info at: http://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/SAS.html (usually a reliable source for other stats) and couldn't understand why the Spurs still had Horry affecting their cap :)

[bluebellmaniac]

I have a general question about the stretch provision vs buying out the contract. If there is only 1 year left on a contract and it is unlikely that the player will play on another team (most likely retire, say like Nash), is there an advantage to using the stretch provision vs buying out the contract? I can't think of any. Why would you want any part of the salary, which you are going to pay either way, showing up on your books?

[Chinook]

I have a general question about the stretch provision vs buying out the contract. If there is only 1 year left on a contract and it is unlikely that the player will play on another team (most likely retire, say like Nash), is there an advantage to using the stretch provision vs buying out the contract? I can't think of any. Why would you want any part of the salary, which you are going to pay either way, showing up on your books?

It's sorta misleading. The guaranteed portions of all contracts signed under the new CBA are automatically stretched upon the player being waived. Using the provision only allows the team to count the stretch over three cap-years. In Nash's case, if the Lakers were to buy him out for $6 Million, they could choose to either take that all on their cap next session or use the provision on it and only take $2 Million each of the following three. If they just waive him without a buyout, they can choose to take all $9+ Million next year or to use the provision on it and take $3+ Million each of the next three years. Regardless, they would actually be paying him over three years.

The CBA FAQ is linked in the OP of the Trade Thread. It explains the stretch provision clearly.

[bluebellmaniac]

Oh, ok. I thought if a player was boughtout, they would not count against the cap. What you said makes sense so as to prevent big market teams from playing their same ol game. Thanks.

[Captivus]

just wanted to show you this video.
This guy is making videos with CBA explanations.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_71mzwdB0g

[Andthentherewas21]

http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/spurs.jsp

Just a quick link to update the salary info since Bruno's figures were before the trade deadline

[xmas1997]

Where is Bruno by the way?

[jesterbobman]

Question: If the Spurs resign Boris Diaw, what is the most creative manner of structuring his contract to increase the 2015 offseason cap space: Other than decreasing contracts, can the Spurs do the Nick Collison thing with Diaw? Diaw at 10, 4, 4 would be pretty ideal as cap space this year doesn't matter, but not sure if that option is still available(and can't find it scanning the Coon FAQ). I don't think it's an available option, but would be great for us if it is.

[TheGoldStandard]

Question: If the Spurs resign Boris Diaw, what is the most creative manner of structuring his contract to increase the 2015 offseason cap space: Other than decreasing contracts, can the Spurs do the Nick Collison thing with Diaw? Diaw at 10, 4, 4 would be pretty ideal as cap space this year doesn't matter, but not sure if that option is still available(and can't find it scanning the Coon FAQ). I don't think it's an available option, but would be great for us if it is.

There is a ton of flexibility in 2015-2016 at this point since Manu and Duncan are off the books and save for Tiago we don't have any guaranteed monies going anywhere. That being said we'll have to extend Kawhi and work something out with Green but there should be a good chunk of change left over regardless of what they do this offseason to keep Mills and Diaw.

[Baam]

^ TP is also a free agent. But it's not a given that Tim is gonna retire next summer so it's hard to really make any prediction...

[bluebellmaniac]

According to Sham's (http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/spurs.jsp), here is where we sit with Anderson's rookie scale salary set to 100%. We have 14 players if all the players listed come back (Bonner was deleted, so he'd make 15 if he returns). Pending is the re-signing amounts for Diaw, Mills, and Baynes (assuming all are brought back). Not much room on this championship squad heading into next year. I think the 15th spot is left open for 10 day contracts to evaluate talent throughout the year and to plug holes based on injuries.

Bayne's amount is his qualifying offer.
Daye's amount is partially unguaranteed, but becomes guaranteed on the 1st of July.

I miss anything?



Player
2014/2015


Tony Parker (http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/playerProfiles/profileDisplay.jsp?id=360)
$12,500,000


Tim Duncan (http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/playerProfiles/profileDisplay.jsp?id=352)
$10,361,446


Tiago Splitter (http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/playerProfiles/profileDisplay.jsp?id=713)
$9,250,000


Manu Ginobili (http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/playerProfiles/profileDisplay.jsp?id=354)
$7,000,000


Boris Diaw (http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/playerProfiles/profileDisplay.jsp?id=316)
N/A


Danny Green (http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/playerProfiles/profileDisplay.jsp?id=1150)
$4,025,000


Marco Belinelli (http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/playerProfiles/profileDisplay.jsp?id=848)
$2,873,750


Kawhi Leonard (http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/playerProfiles/profileDisplay.jsp?id=1754)
$2,894,059


Jeff Ayers (http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/playerProfiles/profileDisplay.jsp?id=1192)
$1,828,750


Patrick Mills (http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/playerProfiles/profileDisplay.jsp?id=1152)
N/A


Cory Joseph (http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/playerProfiles/profileDisplay.jsp?id=1780)
$2,023,261


Austin Daye (http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/playerProfiles/profileDisplay.jsp?id=1173)
$1,063,384


Aron Baynes (http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/playerProfiles/profileDisplay.jsp?id=1276)
$1,115,243



Kyle Anderson
$911,400


TOTALS

$55,846,293

[Andthentherewas21]

Question: If the Spurs resign Boris Diaw, what is the most creative manner of structuring his contract to increase the 2015 offseason cap space: Other than decreasing contracts, can the Spurs do the Nick Collison thing with Diaw? Diaw at 10, 4, 4 would be pretty ideal as cap space this year doesn't matter, but not sure if that option is still available(and can't find it scanning the Coon FAQ). I don't think it's an available option, but would be great for us if it is.

The Spurs COULD potentially give Diaw a giant signing bonus on top of his contract similar to what happened with Collison a few years back. However, the Spurs then can't exceed the salary cap or else the signing bonus is spread throughout the duration of the contract. So in short, there is pretty much 0% chance it happens.

[Mel_13]

Question: If the Spurs resign Boris Diaw, what is the most creative manner of structuring his contract to increase the 2015 offseason cap space: Other than decreasing contracts, can the Spurs do the Nick Collison thing with Diaw? Diaw at 10, 4, 4 would be pretty ideal as cap space this year doesn't matter, but not sure if that option is still available(and can't find it scanning the Coon FAQ). I don't think it's an available option, but would be great for us if it is.

The loophole that Presti used to renegotiate and simultaneously extend Collison's deal was addressed in the 2011 CBA. Even if it still existed the Spurs would not be able to do something similar with Boris, as they cannot renegotiate or extend his current contract. He will become a free agent on July 1st and his next deal will be a new contract. As such, the difference in salary from one year to the next is limited to 7.5% of the first year salary of the new deal.

[CGD]

Anyone want to take a stab at what Diaw will command? 21m/3yrs would be my guess.

spurs let mills walk if he earns greater than Danny green money. Baynes will walk if he earns greater than Vitor Faverani money.

[TheGoldStandard]

Anyone want to take a stab at what Diaw will command? 21m/3yrs would be my guess.

spurs let mills walk if he earns greater than Danny green money. Baynes will walk if he earns greater than Vitor Faverani money.

Diaw will get 18/3 and will take a discount to continue to play with Parker. Mills will get 4/18 deal ascending

[MaNu4Tres]

Anyone want to take a stab at what Diaw will command? 21m/3yrs would be my guess.

spurs let mills walk if he earns greater than Danny green money. Baynes will walk if he earns greater than Vitor Faverani money.

I'm guessing Diaw signs 2 year deal/ 15 mil.

Don't think Spurs will exceed 4.5/5 mil per to retain Patty. They still like Corey Joseph a lot.

[Richie]

Spurs have huge leverage over Diaw, we should get a big discount. Boris has had a pretty unhappy NBA career playing for teams and coaches who don't fit for him.

I say there's no way he leaves, even if we only offered him a deal at a similar salary to his current one.

I think $16m/3yr would seal it for us.

[Baam]

Spurs have huge leverage over Diaw, we should get a big discount. Boris has had a pretty unhappy NBA career playing for teams and coaches who don't fit for him.

I say there's no way he leaves, even if we only offered him a deal at a similar salary to his current one.

I think $16m/3yr would seal it for us.

Meh he has at least as much leverage with the Spurs... He is arguably the WCF and Finals MVP. Boris loves playing, if he gets a bigger role elsewhere he could very well walk.

[jesterbobman]

Thanks Andthentherewas21 and Mel_13 Thought it had been addressed, but wasn't sure. Trying to think of loopholes to maximise 2015 cap space.

[jesterbobman]

Boris loves playing in a team system that passes a lot. There are certainly other teams with similar processes, Atlanta was pretty close. But money and role would be much the same there. I'm sure Bud and Ferry value Boris, but there is already Horford and Millsap as established starters, plus Payne, Noguiera etc to fill in minutes. Not a big role there.

Most good teams only have the MLE to offer, and bad teams probably won't be interested. 3yr deal around the MLE (maybe slightly over ) would be a good deal. 3 at 18 seems feasible.

[Richie]

Meh he has at least as much leverage with the Spurs... He is arguably the WCF and Finals MVP. Boris loves playing, if he gets a bigger role elsewhere he could very well walk.

I simply don't agree. This is a great article (http://grantland.com/features/boris-diaw-tony-parker-san-antonio-spurs-nba-playoffs-2014/) on Boris' NBA journey and why he had such problems in Atlanta and Charlotte playing for coaches that didn't accept him for who he is. The same thing happened on the Suns when D'Antoni left.

Perhaps more than any other player in the league, Boris needs to play in the right team for the right coach. He had it with D'Antoni's seven seconds or less and he has that here. I don't see any way he would choose to play elsewhere.

[Baam]

I simply don't agree. This is a great article (http://grantland.com/features/boris-diaw-tony-parker-san-antonio-spurs-nba-playoffs-2014/) on Boris' NBA journey and why he had such problems in Atlanta and Charlotte playing for coaches that didn't accept him for who he is. The same thing happened on the Suns when D'Antoni left.

Perhaps more than any other player in the league, Boris needs to play in the right team for the right coach. He had it with D'Antoni's seven seconds or less and he has that here. I don't see any way he would choose to play elsewhere.

You're obviously only looking at one side of the equation.

[Richie]

You're obviously only looking at one side of the equation.

Feel free to enlighten me

[Baam]

Boris loves playing in a team system that passes a lot. There are certainly other teams with similar processes, Atlanta was pretty close. But money and role would be much the same there. I'm sure Bud and Ferry value Boris, but there is already Horford and Millsap as established starters, plus Payne, Noguiera etc to fill in minutes. Not a big role there.

Most good teams only have the MLE to offer, and bad teams probably won't be interested. 3yr deal around the MLE (maybe slightly over ) would be a good deal. 3 at 18 seems feasible.

That's just ridiculous. Bet the Rockets gives him 10M and a starting job once they realize they're not getting Melo.

[Baam]

Feel free to enlighten me

You're only looking at how much Boris supposedly needs the Spurs not the other way around...

[elemento]

That's just ridiculous. Bet the Rockets gives him 10M and a starting job once they realize they're not getting Melo.

No. Morey would never offer him that kind of money and Boris would never consider playing in a iso-ball team.

[Richie]

You're only looking at how much Boris supposedly needs the Spurs not the other way around...

I actually do think he needs the Spurs more than the Spurs need him. I don't think he will attract much interest in free agency, his record at Charlotte will scare off non-playoff teams with cap room, whom he wouldn't want to sign for anyway, and the other contenders only have the MLE to play with.

I don't see how he has much leverage at all to get the $8m per year that some are predicting.

Boris doesn't want a bigger role on a worse team, he doesn't want to be an all star. He wants to play the game his own way, and it'd be a risk for both him and the team who signs him if he moves in free agency.

[Mel_13]

That's just ridiculous. Bet the Rockets gives him 10M and a starting job once they realize they're not getting Melo.

You pointed out that it only takes one team to make a market for an NBA free agent, so anything is possible. I just don't see that sort of offer for Boris.

If you'd like to make it interesting, I'd be willing to make a friendly wager on the proposition that the first year salary in Diaw's next contract is closer to 6M than to 10M.

[jesterbobman]

That's just ridiculous. Bet the Rockets gives him 10M and a starting job once they realize they're not getting Melo.

I doubt that. The reality is that Boris is worth about $10m a year to the Spurs or another pass heavy team, and less than the MLE to a team with an iso heavy system/low total passing, as he doesn't play as hard (There is Atlanta stint #1 and Charlotte to tell us this). The fact that the gap exists is why the Spurs can beat competitors offers at a price below his Spurs specific worth.

Basically:
Worth $10m or so to the Spurs
Worth $5m or so to most other teams,
Spurs can sign to $6m, get a deal that satisfies both.

[Andthentherewas21]

Diaw is going to be making something around 6-7 mil a year. Given his history in the league I doubt anyone offers him anything beyond the mid-level (in fact there have been reports that several GMs were weary of pursuing him even during/after the finals). On the flip-side the Parker/Diaw connection means that the Spurs aren't going to underpay and piss either of them off if they want them around the next 3-4 years. 6 mil a year would be a nice raise and allow Diaw to play on a team and teammates he is comfortable with while still giving the Spurs a bit of a discount given his versatility and skill-set.

[Richie]

Just realised something for summer 2015 guys

Leonard will likely command max money in restricted free agency, which the Spurs would match. However if the front office convinced him not to sign an offer sheet so they can go after a free agent before extending him, his cap hold will only be 250% of his previous salary which is $7.25m. That means for free agency purposes Spurs would be at (with salary estimated)...

Parker $14m
Splitter $8.5m
Diaw $6m
Green $5m
Mills $4m
Kawhi $7.25m
Anderson $1m

With a projected $66.5m cap (per Larry Coon), that would give the Spurs $20m in cap space for the summer of 2014. My salary estimates could be too high or too low, I could easily see Parker/Mills/Green/Diaw earning anywhere from $25m-$33m, I've done the above calculations assuming $29m.

[bluebellmaniac]

Just realised something for summer 2015 guys

Leonard will likely command max money in restricted free agency, which the Spurs would match. However if the front office convinced him not to sign an offer sheet so they can go after a free agent before extending him, his cap hold will only be 250% of his previous salary which is $7.25m. That means for free agency purposes Spurs would be at (with salary estimated)...

Parker $14m
Splitter $8.5m
Diaw $6m
Green $5m
Mills $4m
Kawhi $7.25m
Anderson $1m

With a projected $66.5m cap (per Larry Coon), that would give the Spurs $20m in cap space for the summer of 2014. My salary estimates could be too high or too low, I could easily see Parker/Mills/Green/Diaw earning anywhere from $25m-$33m, I've done the above calculations assuming $29m.

TD has indicated he will play for a couple more years, that would eat up about half of the $20M. Need cap holds also. You can factor in the rookie scale for LJC, then sign him for more after any free agent signings. This also assumes renouncing CoJo and that Haynes or his replacement only has a 1 year guaranteed contract, next year. Assumes we renounce Beli? We'd have to do some painful renouncing, but we could have cap space.

[Chinook]

Just realised something for summer 2015 guys

Leonard will likely command max money in restricted free agency, which the Spurs would match. However if the front office convinced him not to sign an offer sheet so they can go after a free agent before extending him, his cap hold will only be 250% of his previous salary which is $7.25m. That means for free agency purposes Spurs would be at (with salary estimated)...

Parker $14m
Splitter $8.5m
Diaw $6m
Green $5m
Mills $4m
Kawhi $7.25m
Anderson $1m

With a projected $66.5m cap (per Larry Coon), that would give the Spurs $20m in cap space for the summer of 2014. My salary estimates could be too high or too low, I could easily see Parker/Mills/Green/Diaw earning anywhere from $25m-$33m, I've done the above calculations assuming $29m.

We have been talking about that scenario for months now.

[Richie]

TD has indicated he will play for a couple more years, that would eat up about half of the $20M. Need cap holds also. You can factor in the rookie scale for LJC, then sign him for more after any free agent signings. This also assumes renouncing CoJo and that Haynes or his replacement only has a 1 year guaranteed contract, next year. Assumes we renounce Beli? We'd have to do some painful renouncing, but we could have cap space.

Yeah it assumes we'd lose Baynes, Belinelli and CoJo. Of course Baynes will likely still be a minimum salary player (as will Bonner) so I think we could sign them both to 1 year deals this year and minimum deals in 2015. I doubt either will be offered more by another team.

Really the only players I feel we'd have to give up would be Joseph and Belinelli, both of whom are expendable if it means getting a star to pair with Kawhi and Parker. We could always use the mini-MLE on one of them if we really wanted to keep them.

In fact if we kept Bonner and Baynes on minimum salary, it will only cost us around 400k in cap space each because that is the difference between the 2-year vet minimum that counts against the cap and the rookie minimum which is used as a cap hold.

I purposely avoided talking about cap holds because the projected salaries of our free agents could vary so much, $2.5m in cap holds is fairly irrelevant. In fact we could sign a couple of our second rounders to the rookie minimum and it would have no impact at all on our cap space.

If we did find a way to get $20m in cap room (which is not completely out of the question), I could see a situation where Timmys signs for $10m/2yr and retires after 1, in effect getting $10m/1yr. We'd then have $15m for a marquee free agent like Gasol.

A front line of Timmy/Gasol/Splitter/Diaw/Anderson/Kawhi. Could be incredible, but surely a pipe dream.

[Richie]

We have been talking about that scenario for months now.

I've not seen anyone talking about factoring in Kawhis cap hold, just his future salary. If anyone has, you didn't mention it last time we discussed this and I included Kawhis projected salary instead of cap hold.

[Baam]

5M for TD is really too low... You're giving him the same money as Green and only one more millions than Mills, that just sounds so outrageous...

Anyway the more I think about it, the best solution to the end of the Duncanobili era seems to be the draft... Grooming a prospect is just much more flexible, you don't need to have the right FA at the right time which is extremely hard to do, especially with Duncan and Ginobili playing possibly longer than expected...

If you have some financial flexibily just use it to buy picks/propects... I'd take back Lin if that means we can get Capela... Same with 2015 picks as that draft is said to be loaded with bigs... Just seems like a much superior solution in a lot of ways.

[Chinook]

I've not seen anyone talking about factoring in Kawhis cap hold, just his future salary. If anyone has, you didn't mention it last time we discussed this and I included Kawhis projected salary instead of cap hold.

Yes, I did. Any time I talked about waiting to re-sign Leonard, I meant it in the context of using his cap hold as opposed to his salary.


They could save the $3-4 Million by not re-signing Mills, and they could save another $5 Million or so by waiting to re-sign Leonard and not extending him. Doing both would be the only way for the Spurs to be able to afford a vested-max contract, but even if they're aiming for a below-vested-max contract in the $15 Million range, they'll have to make some sacrifices such as continuing to keep picks in Europe and not signing any young players to multi-year deals this off-season. And even with all that, they'd have to not extend Kawhi to be able to have enough cap space if they keep Mills (and Baynes, but people forget the Spurs have a decision with him coming up as well).

That was the original response to you on this topic (pared down, of course, but you can click the link to see the whole thing). I was assuming Kawhi would sign a below-max extension starting at around the current max. That's why the difference is $5 Million and not the $8 Million it would be if he were maxed out now.

Some other board members and I had similar discussions of Leonard's contract in these threads and others:

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=236258

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=235926

Those are just the recent ones. We've been on this since at least after the All-Star break.

[Richie]

Yes, I did. Any time I talked about waiting to re-sign Leonard, I meant it in the context of using his cap hold as opposed to his salary.



That was the original response to you on this topic (pared down, of course, but you can click the link to see the whole thing). I was assuming Kawhi would sign a below-max extension starting at around the current max. That's why the difference is $5 Million and not the $8 Million it would be if he were maxed out now.

Ah I see, in that case then I have to say I disagree with a couple of your comments in that previous thread even more strongly than I thought lol.

You said the only way we would be able to sign a $15m-ish deal would be to not sign young players this off season and continue to stash picks, I disagree. With the salaries I suggested in my previous post before, we'd have 7 players at around $46m.

Even if we bring over LJC and sign our 2015 pick both at 120% of the rookie scale and keep Baynes at the minimum, that only reduces out cap space by about $2m as half their salaries would be offset due to the roster cap holds.

That'd drop us to $17m when accounting for 2 further roster cap holds. Of course our free agents might demand higher salaries but if anything I think we will get them cheaper than I have allowed for, although that might just be wishful thinking.

Unless Timmy and Manu come back and eat in to it, I don't see any way we have less than $15m to spend next summer.

[Richie]

5M for TD is really too low... You're giving him the same money as Green and only one more millions than Mills, that just sounds so outrageous...

Anyway the more I think about it, the best solution to the end of the Duncanobili era seems to be the draft... Grooming a prospect is just much more flexible, you don't need to have the right FA at the right time which is extremely hard to do, especially with Duncan and Ginobili playing possibly longer than expected...

If you have some financial flexibily just use it to buy picks/propects... I'd take back Lin if that means we can get Capela... Same with 2015 picks as that draft is said to be loaded with bigs... Just seems like a much superior solution in a lot of ways.

You're probably right that it'll be better to rebuild through the draft, but with Parker here and Kawhi hopefully moving towards being an all star player we won't get the kind of talent we need to become a legit contender through the draft without blowing it all up.

Agreed $5m is likely too low for Duncan, but he'll be 40 in the 2016 playoffs if he comes back after next year. Let him write his own cheque, but at least let him know it's an option if there is a realistic chance of getting another all star for his last year. You could always have an understanding in place and if the Spurs fail to land anyone, give him another $10m to come back.

[Chinook]

Ah I see, in that case then I have to say I disagree with a couple of your comments in that previous thread even more strongly than I thought lol.

You said the only way we would be able to sign a $15m-ish deal would be to not sign young players this off season and continue to stash picks, I disagree. With the salaries I suggested in my previous post before, we'd have 7 players at around $46m.

Even if we bring over LJC and sign our 2015 pick both at 120% of the rookie scale and keep Baynes at the minimum, that only reduces out cap space by about $2m as half their salaries would be offset due to the roster cap holds.

That'd drop us to $17m when accounting for 2 further roster cap holds. Of course our free agents might demand higher salaries but if anything I think we will get them cheaper than I have allowed for, although that might just be wishful thinking.

Unless Timmy and Manu come back and eat in to it, I don't see any way we have less than $15m to spend next summer.

Again, you're assuming certain players are getting smaller deals. Baynes isn't getting the minimum, seeing as he's already been guaranteed more from his QO.

Anyway, you have $46.5M from the seven players you listed, plus about $1.2 Million each for Jean-Charles and 2015s pick, plus $2 Million for Baynes. That's $50.5M, to which you have to add another million in cap holds. That leaves $15.1 Million in cap space. And that means there'd be on room for Bertans or any other second-rounder to be signed this season, since their salaries would have to count against 2015 cap space. Again, assuming Green and Diaw get cheap deals.

Finally, even $17 Million is not enough cap space for a second-level-max contract. It may as well be $15M for the purposes of the conversation we were having.

[Richie]

Again, you're assuming certain players are getting smaller deals. Baynes isn't getting the minimum, seeing as he's already been guaranteed more from his QO.

Anyway, you have $46.5M from the seven players you listed, plus about $1.2 Million each for Jean-Charles and 2015s pick, plus $2 Million for Baynes. That's $50.5M, to which you have to add another million in cap holds. That leaves $15.1 Million in cap space. And that means there'd be on room for Bertans or any other second-rounder to be signed this season, since their salaries would have to count against 2015 cap space. Again, assuming Green and Diaw get cheap deals.

Finally, even $17 Million is not enough cap space for a second-level-max contract. It may as well be $15M for the purposes of the conversation we were having.

Baynes QO is 1.1m which is about the minimum. If he signs a deal in restricted free agency we shouldn't match it, but I doubt any team goes after him and I think he'll be unrestricted this time next year.

We'll have to disagree on Baynes salary, but even if we do want to give him a $2m deal we could use the bi-annual exception after signing a free agent. That frees another 1.5m in your calculation.

I'd be shocked if Green got more than $5m.

[Chinook]

Baynes QO is 1.1m which is about the minimum. If he signs a deal in restricted free agency we shouldn't match it, but I doubt any team goes after him and I think he'll be unrestricted this time next year.

We'll have to disagree on Baynes salary, but even if we do want to give him a $2m deal we could use the bi-annual exception after signing a free agent. That frees another 1.5m in your calculation.

I'd be shocked if Green got more than $5m.

You can't use the LLE and cap space on the same off-season. Also, Baynes is likely to get a new multi-year deal now rather than two one-year deals. I don't remember the Spurs ever letting a player play under his QO.

[Richie]

You can't use the LLE and cap space on the same off-season. Also, Baynes is likely to get a new multi-year deal now rather than two one-year deals. I don't remember the Spurs ever letting a player play under his QO.

Sorry I got the name mixed up, I actually meant the Room Exception. Im pretty sure the whole point of the Room exception allow teams to use cap space AND still have an exception, considering they'll have to waive all other exceptions to use said cap space.

[Chinook]

Sorry I got the name mixed up, I actually meant the Room Exception. Im pretty sure the whole point of the Room exception allow teams to use cap space AND still have an exception, considering they'll have to waive all other exceptions to use said cap space.

Yes, the room exception allows that. I think they'll need that for a more-important player, though.

[Richie]

Yes, the room exception allows that. I think they'll need that for a more-important player, though.

I agree we'll use it for a more important player, but at the same time I think Baynes is a minimum player. I actually like the possibility of using the Room exception for Manu if he wants to keep going until the 2016 Olympics and retire with the national team.

[elemento]

Do you guys really see Baynes getting suitors? He is a great 3rd string backup C that could eventually be a backup Center in the future.

I could see him getting something similar to what Mills got in his first contract with SA (2y a little bit above the min with the 2nd year as a PO). Even if he gets offers (which I doubt), he won't get more than BAE money and SA would probably match it.

I'm way more interested on how/who SA will target with the MLE.

[Richie]

Do you guys really see Baynes getting suitors? He is a great 3rd string backup C that could eventually be a backup Center in the future.

I could see him getting something similar to what Mills got in his first contract with SA (2y a little bit above the min with the 2nd year as a PO). Even if he gets offers (which I doubt), he won't get more than BAE money and SA would probably match it.

I'm way more interested on how/who SA will target with the MLE.

I don't see anyone really wanting him, and I don't know why the Spurs would consider paying him anything that could jeopardise any cap space in 2015.

I think he was tendered the qualifying offer because we want him next year, so there was no reason not to as his qualifying offer is basically the minimum. If he signs an offer sheet I think we let him go, he doesn't bring anything another minimum D-League player doesn't bring.

[bluebellmaniac]

Sham with updated team rosters and salaries.

http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/spurs.jsp (http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/spurs.jsp)

[Seventyniner]

Sham with updated team rosters and salaries.

http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/spurs.jsp (http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/spurs.jsp)

Still missing Diaw. I believe it was 8.5/8.0/7.5 with something like 3M guaranteed in year 3.

Just saying that so people don't click the link, see that the Spurs salary is less than 63.1M, and think the Spurs somehow have cap space (and could therefore get more by dumping contracts).

[Chinook]

Still missing Diaw. I believe it was 8.5/8.0/7.5 with something like 3M guaranteed in year 3.

Just saying that so people don't click the link, see that the Spurs salary is less than 63.1M, and think the Spurs somehow have cap space (and could therefore get more by dumping contracts).

Indeed. Also, even if Diaw were already accounted for, you have to add a little more than $8 Million in exceptions even if the team renounces their ancient cap holds. Unless the Spurs dump a LOT of salary, they're no where near being under the cap.

[Man In Black]

https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/t1.0-9/q71/s720x720/10514740_649420038481030_5382324989915645815_n.jpg

[Richie]

As has been mentioned before, there's absolutely no benefit to extending Kawhi over making him a restricted freeaagent. He's getting paid regardless and he'll likely want that 5th year that only we can give him.

[elemento]

Sham just updated the Spurs salaries with Boris

http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/spurs.jsp

7.5m / 7m / 6.5m / 7m

4y/28m, only 17.5m guaranteed. 3rd year only 3m guaranteed and last year fully unguaranteed.

Interesting the way they structured it.

[Andthentherewas21]

I thought you could only do increasing/constant/ or decreasing salary for the duration of the contract, but couldn't mix them (e.g. decrease for 3 years and then give a raise in the final year). Anyone know for sure?

[ernest787]

n00b questions, but why do guys like Van Exel, etc. still have cap holds listed?

[Mel_13]

n00b questions, but why do guys like Van Exel, etc. still have cap holds listed?

The Spurs haven't used cap space since they left and have, therefore, never had occasion to renounce their rights. At some point in the future the Spurs will need to use cap space and will go through the formality of renouncing their rights to those players.

[ernest787]

The Spurs haven't used cap space since they left and have, therefore, never had occasion to renounce their rights. At some point in the future the Spurs will need to use cap space and will go through the formality of renouncing their rights to those players.

gotcha. makes perfect sense. thank you for clarifying.

[bluebellmaniac]

This could be useful as a reference. Assumes that Baynes signs for the QO. Is it confirmed that Bonner signed for the Vet Min? Was it 2 years?





Player
2014/2015
2015/2016



1
Tony Parker
$12,500,000
$18,000,000
*Cap Hold


2
Tim Duncan
$10,361,446
$15,542,169
*Cap Hold


3
Tiago Splitter
$9,250,000
$8,500,000



4
Boris Diaw
$7,500,000
$7,000,000



5
Manu Ginobili
$7,000,000
$10,500,000
*Cap Hold


6
Danny Green
$4,025,000
$7,647,500
*Cap Hold


7
Patty Mills
$3,842,105
$3,578,947



8
Kawhi Leonard
$2,894,059
$4,045,894



9
Marco Belinelli
$2,873,750
$3,735,875
*Cap Hold


10
Cory Joseph
$2,023,261
$3,034,891



11
Jeff Ayers
$1,828,750
$2,377,375
*Cap Hold


12
Aron Baynes
$1,115,243
$1,147,276
*Cap Hold


13
Kyle Anderson
$1,096,680
$1,142,879



14
Austin Daye
$1,063,384
$947,276
*Cap Hold


15
Matt Bonner
$915,283
$947,276
*Cap Hold





W/ Cap Holds
WO / Cap Holds



TOTALS
$68,218,737
$88,045,141
$28,147,670

[ABC]

Thanks bluebellmaniac. It was reported that Bonner signed for 1 year at the vet min, but with both Diaw's and Mill's contracts being significantly different from the original reports, we can't be sure what Bonner's contract is yet.

[spurraider21]

with Jodie Meeks getting 3/19, Manu's contract suddenly looks like a bargain

[spurraider21]

The Spurs haven't used cap space since they left and have, therefore, never had occasion to renounce their rights. At some point in the future the Spurs will need to use cap space and will go through the formality of renouncing their rights to those players.
that's pretty incredible to think about

[ernest787]

it's going to be interesting to see what happens with Tony. If Tim and Manu came back you can assume it would be at the same number or potentially, and maybe more likely, at a lower number. Tony would be in for his last "big" contract. Wonder if the 12.5 would be the expected number for him.

[Richie]

it's going to be interesting to see what happens with Tony. If Tim and Manu came back you can assume it would be at the same number or potentially, and maybe more likely, at a lower number. Tony would be in for his last "big" contract. Wonder if the 12.5 would be the expected number for him.

Timmys next contract will be very interesting. He'll be 39, and how much is he going to want? If it means us signing a star in free agency to help him win, is $5m enough. Has a player ever signed an above MLE level deal at 39? As great as we all know Timmy is, how many games and minutes can he play at that age?

Pay him whatever he wants, you don't lowball a guy who has carried the franchise for two decades, but let him know the trade off between his contract and free agent signings.

Same is true for Manu IMO, would he take the Room Exception if he came back?

[FvckMavs]

Timmys next contract will be very interesting. He'll be 39, and how much is he going to want? If it means us signing a star in free agency to help him win, is $5m enough. Has a player ever signed an above MLE level deal at 39? As great as we all know Timmy is, how many games and minutes can he play at that age?

Pay him whatever he wants, you don't lowball a guy who has carried the franchise for two decades, but let him know the trade off between his contract and free agent signings.

Same is true for Manu IMO, would he take the Room Exception if he came back?

Give Tim an empty check and let him fill out the number as long as he returns for one more year.

[ernest787]

If Tim decided to come back after next year I have a gut feeling it would be around 7-7.5 a year. Obviously, it's very early to even look at that, but if he continues to play at or near the level he's been at that would be a fair contract. I'd also doubt it'd be more than a year long deal.

Same logic for Manu. If he came back I could see him shaving a couple million off his current deal, so I'd think he'd be in the $5 million range.

Tony is the wild card to me. He's still in his prime, and he's only looking at one more large contract. I wonder if he would be looking at a 4 for $60 type deal.

[Richie]

So with the signings this summer, we have $33.5m committed to salaries next season (Parker, Splitter, Boris, Mills, Anderson) and $7m for Kawhis cap hold assuming he doesn't get extended.

That gives us $28m in space (assuming $68m cap) for Green, Timmy, Manu and free agents.

Obviously all scenarios depend on how much Timmy wants if he stays another year, but in a best case scenario we could get Green back for $5m and Manu would take the room exception if he came back. Including $2m in roster cap holds, that'd give us $20.5m to spend on Timmy and free agents.

If Timmy retired we're in great shape to add a max player, if he stays then it likely puts us out of the race. Let's say Timmy takes $8m, who could we land for under $12m? I suspect we'd roll over our cap space rather than commit to a long term contract in that range.

[bluebellmaniac]

Here are some corrections plus an update with TP's new contract:





Player
2014/2015
2015/2016



1
Tony Parker
$12,500,000
$13,400,000



2
Tim Duncan
$10,361,446
$15,542,169
*Cap Hold


3
Tiago Splitter
$9,250,000
$8,500,000



4
Boris Diaw
$7,500,000
$7,000,000



5
Manu Ginobili
$7,000,000
$10,500,000
*Cap Hold


6
Danny Green
$4,025,000
$7,647,500
*Cap Hold


7
Patty Mills
$3,842,105
$3,578,947



8
Kawhi Leonard
$2,894,059
$7,235,148
*Cap Hold


9
Marco Belinelli
$2,873,750
$3,735,875
*Cap Hold


10
Cory Joseph
$2,023,261
$5,058,153
*Cap Hold


11
Jeff Ayers
$1,828,750
$2,377,375
*Cap Hold


12
Aron Baynes
$1,115,243
$1,147,276
*Cap Hold


13
Kyle Anderson
$1,096,680
$1,142,879



14
Austin Daye
$1,063,384
$947,276
*Cap Hold


15
Matt Bonner
$915,283
$947,276
*Cap Hold





W/ Cap Holds
WO/Cap Holds + 6 Roster Charges



TOTALS
$68,218,737
$88,759,874
$38,692,180


For '15-'16, I think:
TD comes back at $10M.
Manu retires.
Green is due for a $6M - $7M deal.
Kawhi: $14M
CoJo re-signs for $2M or very possibly leaves for a bigger payday elsewhere.
Beli re-signs for $3M.
Ayers is toast.
Baynes re-ups for close to or at the minimum.
Bonner retires (finally).

We bring over LJC and Bertans, bringing our roster to 14 slots. We need to draft a PG if CoJo leaves, otherwise we need a big.
Of course LJC and Bertans are signed before Kawhi signs his deal to take advantage of his small cap hit.

So I think with those signings we look like this for '15-'16


Tony Parker
$13,400,000


Tim Duncan
$10,000,000


Tiago Splitter
$8,500,000


Boris Diaw
$7,000,000


Bertans
?


Danny Green
$6,500,000


Patty Mills
$3,578,947


Kawhi Leonard
$14,000,000


Marco Belinelli
$3,000,000


Cory Joseph
$2,000,000


LJC
?


Aron Baynes
$1,147,276


Kyle Anderson
$1,142,879


Austin Daye
$947,276


Draft Pick or MLE
?






Total
$71,216,378

[Richie]

Kawhi's cap hold is 250% of his previous salary, $7.2m, not his qualifying offer amount.

[Spursfanfromafar]

Here are some corrections plus an update with TP's new contract:

I suspect Kawhi isn't getting anything less than $15 million .

[bluebellmaniac]

Kawhi's cap hold is 250% of his previous salary, $7.2m, not his qualifying offer amount.

fixed. Thx

[spurraider21]

Here are some corrections plus an update with TP's new contract:





Player
2014/2015
2015/2016



1
Tony Parker
$12,500,000
$13,400,000



2
Tim Duncan
$10,361,446
$15,542,169
*Cap Hold


3
Tiago Splitter
$9,250,000
$8,500,000



4
Boris Diaw
$7,500,000
$7,000,000



5
Manu Ginobili
$7,000,000
$10,500,000
*Cap Hold


6
Danny Green
$4,025,000
$7,647,500
*Cap Hold


7
Patty Mills
$3,842,105
$3,578,947



8
Kawhi Leonard
$2,894,059
$7,235,148
*Cap Hold


9
Marco Belinelli
$2,873,750
$3,735,875
*Cap Hold


10
Cory Joseph
$2,023,261
$5,058,153
*Cap Hold


11
Jeff Ayers
$1,828,750
$2,377,375
*Cap Hold


12
Aron Baynes
$1,115,243
$1,147,276
*Cap Hold


13
Kyle Anderson
$1,096,680
$1,142,879



14
Austin Daye
$1,063,384
$947,276
*Cap Hold


15
Matt Bonner
$915,283
$947,276
*Cap Hold





W/ Cap Holds
WO/Cap Holds + 6 Roster Charges



TOTALS
$68,218,737
$88,759,874
$38,692,180


For '15-'16, I think:
TD comes back at $10M.
Manu retires.
Green is due for a $6M - $7M deal.
Kawhi: $14M
CoJo re-signs for $2M or very possibly leaves for a bigger payday elsewhere.
Beli re-signs for $3M.
Ayers is toast.
Baynes re-ups for close to or at the minimum.
Bonner retires (finally).

We bring over LJC and Bertans, bringing our roster to 14 slots. We need to draft a PG if CoJo leaves, otherwise we need a big.
Of course LJC and Bertans are signed before Kawhi signs his deal to take advantage of his small cap hit.

So I think with those signings we look like this for '15-'16


Tony Parker
$13,400,000


Tim Duncan
$10,000,000


Tiago Splitter
$8,500,000


Boris Diaw
$7,000,000


Bertans
?


Danny Green
$6,500,000


Patty Mills
$3,578,947


Kawhi Leonard
$14,000,000


Marco Belinelli
$3,000,000


Cory Joseph
$2,000,000


LJC
?


Aron Baynes
$1,147,276


Kyle Anderson
$1,142,879


Austin Daye
$947,276


Draft Pick or MLE
?






Total
$71,216,378



the MLE would probably be used to bring Bertans/LJC aboard

[spurraider21]

So with the signings this summer, we have $33.5m committed to salaries next season (Parker, Splitter, Boris, Mills, Anderson) and $7m for Kawhis cap hold assuming he doesn't get extended.

That gives us $28m in space (assuming $68m cap) for Green, Timmy, Manu and free agents.

Obviously all scenarios depend on how much Timmy wants if he stays another year, but in a best case scenario we could get Green back for $5m and Manu would take the room exception if he came back. Including $2m in roster cap holds, that'd give us $20.5m to spend on Timmy and free agents.

If Timmy retired we're in great shape to add a max player, if he stays then it likely puts us out of the race. Let's say Timmy takes $8m, who could we land for under $12m? I suspect we'd roll over our cap space rather than commit to a long term contract in that range.
i dont think we will have access to the room exception, as we're going to be over the cap for all of the 14-15 season

[Richie]

i dont think we will have access to the room exception, as we're going to be over the cap for all of the 14-15 season

In my scenario we'll be under the cap and therefore use cap space to sign a player in the summer of 2015. To do that we have to renounce all our other exceptions (mid-level, bi-annual), and get given the Room Exception instead. This is what the Mavs did this summer, they signed Parsons using cap room and gave Jameer Nelson 2 years with the Room Exception.

[bluebellmaniac]

the MLE would probably be used to bring Bertans/LJC aboard

If the salary cap jumps as much as has been rumored ($68M), then LJC and Bertans could be signed with cap room before Kawhi is signed. Kawhi's cap hold is around $7.2M, which would put the team salary around $64M before Kawhi is signed for his max / near max contract. At least one or both of LJC and Bertans could be signed with cap room.

Signing Green and Marco to an amount less than their cap holds would add additional room for LJC and Bertans.

[cd021]

Kawhi's cap hold is 250% of his previous salary, $7.2m, not his qualifying offer amount.

190% but I noticed that too. PTR made a mistake. The Spurs would have something like $42 million committed to Parker, Leonard (cap hold), Splitter, Anderson & Mills.

[cd021]

Here are some corrections plus an update with TP's new contract:





Player
2014/2015
2015/2016



1
Tony Parker
$12,500,000
$13,400,000



2
Tim Duncan
$10,361,446
$15,542,169
*Cap Hold


3
Tiago Splitter
$9,250,000
$8,500,000



4
Boris Diaw
$7,500,000
$7,000,000



5

Manu Ginobili
$7,000,000
$10,500,000
*Cap Hold


6
Danny Green
$4,025,000
$7,647,500
*Cap Hold


7
Patty Mills
$3,842,105
$3,578,947



8
Kawhi Leonard
$2,894,059
$7,235,148
*Cap Hold


9
Marco Belinelli
$2,873,750
$3,735,875
*Cap Hold


10
Cory Joseph
$2,023,261
$5,058,153
*Cap Hold


11
Jeff Ayers
$1,828,750
$2,377,375
*Cap Hold


12
Aron Baynes
$1,115,243
$1,147,276
*Cap Hold


13
Kyle Anderson
$1,096,680
$1,142,879



14
Austin Daye
$1,063,384
$947,276
*Cap Hold


15
Matt Bonner
$915,283
$947,276
*Cap Hold





W/ Cap Holds
WO/Cap Holds + 6 Roster Charges



TOTALS
$68,218,737
$88,759,874
$38,692,180


For '15-'16, I think:
TD comes back at $10M.
Manu retires.
Green is due for a $6M - $7M deal.
Kawhi: $14M
CoJo re-signs for $2M or very possibly leaves for a bigger payday elsewhere.
Beli re-signs for $3M.
Ayers is toast.
Baynes re-ups for close to or at the minimum.
Bonner retires (finally).

We bring over LJC and Bertans, bringing our roster to 14 slots. We need to draft a PG if CoJo leaves, otherwise we need a big.
Of course LJC and Bertans are signed before Kawhi signs his deal to take advantage of his small cap hit.

So I think with those signings we look like this for '15-'16


Tony Parker

$13,400,000


Tim Duncan
$10,000,000


Tiago Splitter
$8,500,000


Boris Diaw
$7,000,000


Bertans
?


Danny Green
$6,500,000


Patty Mills
$3,578,947


Kawhi Leonard
$14,000,000


Marco Belinelli

$3,000,000


Cory Joseph
$2,000,000


LJC
?


Aron Baynes
$1,147,276


Kyle Anderson
$1,142,879


Austin Daye
$947,276


Draft Pick or MLE
?






Total
$71,216,378




1.Parker-$13,437,500
2. Mills-$3,578,947
3. Anderson-$1,142,879
4. Splitter-$8,500,000
5. Diaw-$7,500,000

6. LJC-$2.5 (guesstimation)
7. Bertans $2.1 (I use the B.A.E for reference)
8-Baynes-$1,300,000
9.Leonard- $16.6
-----------------------------------------
$56.6

or

Here are some corrections plus an update with TP's new contract:





Player
2014/2015
2015/2016



1
Tony Parker
$12,500,000
$13,400,000



2
Tim Duncan
$10,361,446
$15,542,169
*Cap Hold


3
Tiago Splitter
$9,250,000
$8,500,000



4
Boris Diaw
$7,500,000
$7,000,000



5
Manu Ginobili
$7,000,000
$10,500,000
*Cap Hold


6
Danny Green
$4,025,000
$7,647,500
*Cap Hold


7
Patty Mills
$3,842,105
$3,578,947



8
Kawhi Leonard
$2,894,059
$7,235,148
*Cap Hold


9
Marco Belinelli
$2,873,750
$3,735,875
*Cap Hold


10
Cory Joseph
$2,023,261
$5,058,153
*Cap Hold


11
Jeff Ayers
$1,828,750
$2,377,375
*Cap Hold


12
Aron Baynes
$1,115,243
$1,147,276
*Cap Hold


13
Kyle Anderson
$1,096,680
$1,142,879



14
Austin Daye
$1,063,384
$947,276
*Cap Hold


15
Matt Bonner
$915,283
$947,276
*Cap Hold





W/ Cap Holds
WO/Cap Holds + 6 Roster Charges



TOTALS
$68,218,737
$88,759,874
$38,692,180


For '15-'16, I think:
TD comes back at $10M.
Manu retires.
Green is due for a $6M - $7M deal.
Kawhi: $14M
CoJo re-signs for $2M or very possibly leaves for a bigger payday elsewhere.
Beli re-signs for $3M.
Ayers is toast.
Baynes re-ups for close to or at the minimum.
Bonner retires (finally).

We bring over LJC and Bertans, bringing our roster to 14 slots. We need to draft a PG if CoJo leaves, otherwise we need a big.
Of course LJC and Bertans are signed before Kawhi signs his deal to take advantage of his small cap hit.

So I think with those signings we look like this for '15-'16


Tony Parker
$13,400,000


Tim Duncan
$10,000,000


Tiago Splitter
$8,500,000


Boris Diaw
$7,000,000


Bertans
?


Danny Green

$6,500,000


Patty Mills
$3,578,947


Kawhi Leonard
$14,000,000


Marco Belinelli
$3,000,000


Cory Joseph
$2,000,000


LJC
?


Aron Baynes
$1,147,276


Kyle Anderson
$1,142,879


Austin Daye

$947,276


Draft Pick or MLE

?






Total
$71,216,378




1.Parker-$13,437,500
2. Mills-$3,578,947
3. Anderson-$1,142,879
4. Splitter-$8,500,000
5. Diaw-$7,500,000

6. LJC-$957,000
7. Bertans $2.1 (I use the B.A.E for reference)
8-Baynes-$1,300,000
9.Leonard- $16.6
----------------------------------------
$55.0 million

+Ginobili-$5.0
+Green-$5.5
+Belinelli-$4.0
+ MLE (5.3 million)

Parker-Mills
Green-Ginobili-Belinelli-Bertans
Leonard-Anderson
Diaw-Jean-Charles
Splitter-Baynes


renounce all other free agents ( Daye, Ayers, Baynes, Bonner, Duncan, retirement,)

or

Scenario 2

1. Parker-$13,437,500
2. Mills-$3,578,947
3. Anderson-$1,142,879
4. Splitter-$8,500,000
5. Diaw-$7,500,000

6. LJC-$957,000
7. Bertans $2.1 (I use the B.A.E for reference)
8-Baynes-$1,300,000
9.Leonard- $7.2 (cap hold)
----------------------------------------
$45.6 million

+Milsap-$12.5
+Green-$5.5

2015 draft pick-$950,00 (depending on what pick exactly, that would be the salary for the 29tj)
-----------------------------------------
64.6 to 11 players

renounce all other free agents (Belinelli, Daye, Ayers, Baynes, Bonner, Joseph) Duncan and Ginobili announce their retirement (in this scenario)


Parker-Mills-Vet. Min PG
Green-Belinelli-Bertans
Leonard-Anderson
Milsap-Diaw-Jean-Charles
Splitter-Baynes-Vet Min. C or 1st round pick



I think Green will receive a deal around 4 yrs, $22 million (5.5 annually). Belinelli 3 years, $12-14 million.

Joseph is probably gone in any scenario. His QA $3.0 (for a 3rd string pg guard) and his cap hit would be $5 million until we resolve his contract situation.
I only have Baynes returning because he has familiarity with the Spurs.

Its hard to imagine the Spurs using back to back 1st rounders to draft players that can actually make the roster the same season (it happened from 08-'10 with Hill, Blair & James Anderon) but it would fill a roster spot on the cheap.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

^ This Parker-Green-Leonard-Milsap-Splitter team is an 8th seed in the west. Don't be in a hurry to retire Duncan and Manu just yet. The Spurs path will resemble Philly's after they retire and it sure isn't fun.

[Chinook]

^ This Parker-Green-Leonard-Milsap-Splitter team is an 8th seed in the west. Don't be in a hurry to retire Duncan and Manu just yet. The Spurs path will resemble Philly's after they retire and it sure isn't fun.

I think you're massively underrating the Spurs' roster, especially in the regular season. Even without Tim, that lineup would be the most talented team in the West 1-9. They just wouldn't have the star power to win a ring.

Anyway. cd021 , LJC's salary for next season is fixed at whatever the 28th pick gets next season. It will be closer to $1 Million than $1.5 Million.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Without both Tim and Manu, I see this team being a 48-50 win team at best, which is right about the 8th seed in the west.

[cd021]

I think you're massively underrating the Spurs' roster, especially in the regular season. Even without Tim, that lineup would be the most talented team in the West 1-9. They just wouldn't have the star power to win a ring.

Anyway. cd021 (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=36264) , LJC's salary for next season is fixed at whatever the 28th pick gets next season. It will be closer to $1 Million than $1.5 Million.

Ok. I thought that draft n' stashes (1st rounders) can't (or usually don't) sign rookie scale deals. I may have been thinking about Splitters rookie deal was the was something close to the norm.

the 28th pick would get about $957,000
That threw my math off a bit in my above post

my first scenario would put the spurs at $55 million for 9 players with Green, & Ginobili for 10.5 million giving the Spurs about $65.5 to 11 players. I forgot that Belinelli would have to be signed with a exception, meaning he would probably take up most of the MLE.

In my second scenario, the Spurs could have about $64.6 million to 12 players (including Leonard and his cap hold) including Milsap and if the spurs use their '15 pick for a non draft n' stash player. In all they could have around 74 million in total salary after Kawhi is resigned (to a five year deal) if my math is correct.

[Chinook]

Ok. I thought that draft n' stashes (1st rounders) can't (or usually don't) sign rookie scale deals. I may have been thinking about Splitters rookie deal was the was something close to the norm.

If the player goes unsigned for three years (like in the cases of Splitter and Mirotic), then he's no longer bound to the rookie scale (in both a positive and negative way for him). Jean-Charles will only go without a deal for two years, so he'll still be bound by the scale. Ibaka waited a year after OKC drafted him, and he still went for a rookie-scale deal, for an example of such a thing happening before.

[Chinook]

Without both Tim and Manu, I see this team being a 48-50 win team at best, which is right about the 8th seed in the west.

So seven other teams will get better records than the Spurs, even though they also don't have Duncan and Ginobili...

The talent gap between the Spurs and the rest of the league is massive, in my opinion. Add in the superior coaching, and I think the team could get a top-four seed with relative ease. They'd still have the best defensive personnel in the league. If the Spurs let Duncan and Ginobili retire without replacing them, then I could see a huge regular-season drop-off. But bringing in other talented players should help them avoid that.

[TD 21]

Parker-Mills-Vet. Min PG
Green-Belinelli-Bertans
Leonard-Anderson
Milsap-Diaw-Jean-Charles
Splitter-Baynes-Vet Min. C

There's no chance Bertans can defend SG's.

Millsap, I've long thought would be a target, but the problem is, neither him or Diaw can credibly play C. Since Splitter is unlikely to ever average even 30 mpg and they'd have to go cheap at backup C, someone who can play both PF and C is ideal. People always bring up Aldridge, but he's more than likely a pipe dream.

The guy to keep an eye on, especially if it looks more and more likely that Duncan and Ginobili are going to play another year, is Horford. He's up in two years, he's Spurs material on an off the court, he'd be an excellent fit with either Splitter or Diaw and the Hawks were supposedly quietly and selectively shopping him at the deadline.

[cd021]

There's no chance Bertans can defend SG's.

Millsap, I've long thought would be a target, but the problem is, neither him or Diaw can credibly play C. Since Splitter is unlikely to ever average even 30 mpg and they'd have to go cheap at backup C, someone who can play both PF and C is ideal. People always bring up Aldridge, but he's more than likely a pipe dream.

The guy to keep an eye on, especially if it looks more and more likely that Duncan and Ginobili are going to play another year, is Horford. He's up in two years, he's Spurs material on an off the court, he'd be an excellent fit with either Splitter or Diaw and the Hawks were supposedly quietly and selectively shopping him at the deadline.

I'm not very familiar with Bertans but he doesn't seem like he's able to the bigger and more athletic small forwards in the NBA. I guess thats why he's been compared to Daye (NBA Draft Net) a bit of a tweener. Not a perfect fit at either position.

I agree, Splitter doesn't seem built to play 30+ mpg over the course of a 82 game season + postseason. Valid point as well about Milsap and Diaw (also, Jean Charles) all not being able to play center. Unfortunately their aren't very many realtistic options on the FA market.

There aren't many bigs that can play both PF and C on the open market, and anywhere in the Spurs range. Kevin Garnett can fit that role but there are plenty of reasons why that wouldn't work out; he will be 39 by next offseason & entering his 20th season , likely needs to take the vet. min, Duncan doesn't like Garnett (SI mentioned this in an article a couple of years ago) and Garnett hasn't come off the bench since Bill Clinton was president ('95-'96 season more than 1300 starts since then)

Jordan Hill can play some of both and shot the ball well from outside of the paint last season. He is very productive in limited minutes. He has a team option for next season so the Lakers could decline his deal in order to become players next off season.

In a center, The Spurs need a big who can defend & board, pass has a solid BBIQ and an ablity to finish around the rim.

Another option could be finding a 3rd center (assuming Baynes is back for cheap) in the 2015 NBA draft, which is supposed to be very big man heavy.

(projected to be drafted in the first round)

Bleacher Report-14 PF/Cs
NBA Draft Net-13 PF/Cs
Draft Express-12 PF/Cs

I like Milsap's fit, in part because of floor spacing ability

he hit 40.6% of his 3 FGA per game from 10-22 feet (above average)

and he stretched his jumper out to 3 point range, 35.8% 3pt of his 3 FGA per game

Horford has had some health issues but is otherwise a very good player. I don't think both Tim and Manu will return after next season but I could see Manu returning for another year. Its hard to imagine the Spurs being able to have enough cap space to outbid another team in two seasons, while still being a playoff team.

[TD 21]

I'm not very familiar with Bertans but he doesn't seem like he's able to the bigger and more athletic small forwards in the NBA. I guess thats why he's been compared to Daye (NBA Draft Net) a bit of a tweener. Not a perfect fit at either position.

I agree, Splitter doesn't seem built to play 30+ mpg over the course of a 82 game season + postseason. Valid point as well about Milsap and Diaw (also, Jean Charles) all not being able to play center. Unfortunately their aren't very many realtistic options on the FA market.

There aren't many bigs that can play both PF and C on the open market, and anywhere in the Spurs range. Kevin Garnett can fit that role but there are plenty of reasons why that wouldn't work out; he will be 39 by next offseason & entering his 20th season , likely needs to take the vet. min, Duncan doesn't like Garnett (SI mentioned this in an article a couple of years ago) and Garnett hasn't come off the bench since Bill Clinton was president ('95-'96 season more than 1300 starts since then)

Jordan Hill can play some of both and shot the ball well from outside of the paint last season. He is very productive in limited minutes. He has a team option for next season so the Lakers could decline his deal in order to become players next off season.

In a center, The Spurs need a big who can defend & board, pass has a solid BBIQ and an ablity to finish around the rim.

Another option could be finding a 3rd center (assuming Baynes is back for cheap) in the 2015 NBA draft, which is supposed to be very big man heavy.

(projected to be drafted in the first round)

Bleacher Report-14 PF/Cs
NBA Draft Net-13 PF/Cs
Draft Express-12 PF/Cs

I like Milsap's fit, in part because of floor spacing ability

he hit 40.6% of his 3 FGA per game from 10-22 feet (above average)

and he stretched his jumper out to 3 point range, 35.8% 3pt of his 3 FGA per game

Horford has had some health issues but is otherwise a very good player. I don't think both Tim and Manu will return after next season but I could see Manu returning for another year. Its hard to imagine the Spurs being able to have enough cap space to outbid another team in two seasons, while still being a playoff team.

Yeah, he's similar to Daye in that he's a tall shooter without a defined defensive position. Which is why, like Daye, I suspect they attempt to convert him into a stretch four.

There aren't, but I'm talking ideally and within' the realm of realistic expectations.

Garnett looked done last season and is almost certainly entering his final season and Hill is too limited. They need an in their prime, All-Star caliber big.

I've had the feeling for a long time that Duncan and Ginobili will retire at the same time. If that comes to fruition a year from now, then obviously they'll most likely go after Millsap, for all the logical reasons. But if both come back for another year, then Horford becomes the no brainer target in '16.

[cd021]

^ This Parker-Green-Leonard-Milsap-Splitter team is an 8th seed in the west. Don't be in a hurry to retire Duncan and Manu just yet. The Spurs path will resemble Philly's after they retire and it sure isn't fun.

I don't agree with that. I could see the Spurs still being in play for a top 4 seed with that roster.

I would put the Thunder, Mavs, Warriors, Clippers (if they can keep Jordan) being better than that Spurs team but the Spurs could probably beat any of them in a long playoff series.

Parker-Mills-Vet. Min PG
Green-Belinelli-Bertans
Leonard-Anderson
Milsap-Diaw-Jean-Charles
Splitter-Baynes-Vet Min. C

Our bench would take a step back without Ginobili's creativity but Mills,Belinelli, Anderson, Diaw and a C isn't a bad bench.

Milsap can certainly produce above the level that Duncan did last season, but Duncan is still a better defender and rebounder.

Milsap averaged 18 ppg and 8 rpg on a team an Atlanta team that didn't have the talent around him that this team could have.

He has stretched his range out to the 3pt line and would be a good pick and pop option with Parker.

I'm actually hoping both Duncan and Ginobili both retire following this season, its better to start the rebuild/retooling sooner rather than later. Keeping both would hamper the Spurs abilities to make moves going forward.

In my first scenario, I have do have Manu coming back with Duncan retiring (I have Kawhi getting the max extension in that scenario).

That team would not be as good as the 2nd team but would probably be closer to the 8th seed.

The Spurs would have only the full mid-level exception to improve the team, but if they are interested in bringing Belinelli back they would have to dip into the MLE.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

I couldn't disagree more tbh, but then everyone has an opinion so agree to disagree. I think people massively underrate the effect Duncan and Manu have on the team dynamics and everyone who's longing for a quick rebuild will be extremely disappointed going into Philly's viscious circle of gathering assets.

[Chinook]

Honestly, that's what you're proposing. The Spurs aren't going to be a bottom-feeder just because Duncan and Manu leave. Too many teams pull out strong seasons in similar situations for me to believe that. As a result, I am not advocating pulling a Philly and selling off assets to tank. The Spurs may never have to go that far. They certainly don't have to any time soon.

This is the most talented roster the team has ever seen, and that's without any FAs. They match up well against any team in the league defensively. They'll have the best coach, two fMVPs and an almost-fMVP. The only way I see it failing to work is if they give up because they don't feel they can compete without Duncan. If they don't, they'll be an elite scorer from being my really early favorite to come out of the West in 2016.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Actually I don't think the'll go as far as Philly did either, for financial reasons, but I'd expect them to be a 1st round and out at best in the immediate years after Tim and Manu retire, while trying to rebuild around Leonard and Parker. However, considering that it took them 3/4 years to retool and contend again between 2008/9 and 2012/13 while they had Tim and Manu on the roster, I'd find it completely delusional to expect them to do it as quick or quicker with them out, even in the case of potential free agents joining. If I were a betting man I'd put money on them trying to retool for a couple of years, failing, then trading assets and trying to start from scratch.

[Chinook]

I think the 2009-2011 seasons should be proof to you that Duncan and Ginobili aren't the main reasons why the Spurs are dominant now. It's because they have elite teammates. The reason why it took so long to reload is because they didn't want to admit they were old. This post-Duncan Spurs won't be old. They also won't be looking for an identity like they were in the transition years.

[Chinook]

Also, the Spurs were still a really good team in those years, especially in the regular season. Now way the front office blows it up if they have similar success in a couple of years.

[TD 21]

Milsap can certainly produce above the level that Duncan did last season, but Duncan is still a better defender and rebounder.

Milsap averaged 18 ppg and 8 rpg on a team an Atlanta team that didn't have the talent around him that this team could have.

Context is everything in basketball, which is why raw numbers are largely irrelevant in many cases. Swap Millsap and Duncan, plus their minutes and field goal attempts and Duncan averages 18, while Millsap doesn't. It doesn't make either any better or worse though.

Another problem with your bench is the lack of athleticism/defense. This is an issue now, but the difference is, the four main subs are so much better than every other bench in the league that, along with the way Pop manipulates the rotation and it ends up not mattering much. But you remove Ginobili and add some more tread to Diaw's tires and it will.

[cd021]

Context is everything in basketball, which is why raw numbers are largely irrelevant in many cases. Swap Millsap and Duncan, plus their minutes and field goal attempts and Duncan averages 18, while Millsap doesn't. It doesn't make either any better or worse though.

Another problem with your bench is the lack of athleticism/defense. This is an issue now, but the difference is, the four main subs are so much better than every other bench in the league that, along with the way Pop manipulates the rotation and it ends up not mattering much. But you remove Ginobili and add some more tread to Diaw's tires and it will.

to be fair ...

Duncan-12.2 FGA, 15.1 PPG,=1.23 PPS

Milsap-14.1 FGA, 17.9 PPG,=1.27 PPS

if Duncan averaged the same amount of shot attempts per game, he would average about 17.3 ppg.

The second scenario leaves very little wiggle room, not to mention that I screwed up the depth chart and put Beli on it (the Spurs likely wouldn't be able to bring him back).

They would have $64.6 million to 11 players (including Bertans, 2015 first rounder and LJC) they would only have $1.5 million of remaining cap space, a vet. minimum deal which brings it up to $67.6 + 9.5 (16.7 million total for Kawhi, once the Spurs resign Leonard to a five year extension )=$77.1 million for 13 players.

The luxury tax would be around $81 million

our bench would actually be
Mills
SG
Anderson
Bertans
Diaw
LJC-Baynes
Vet. Min
first rounder

Now that is an underwhelming bench but as you mentioned it may not be as big of a deal. Diaw shouldn't be over burdened (I'm thinking in terms of minutes) with that bench. Diaw and Mills would be the primary options with more pressure on them to produce on a nightly basis.

Then again Milsap would only be 30 and would top 30 minutes (probably 32 mpg) leaving Diaw for about 16 mpg at PF (barring injuries and Diaw having to step into a bigger role)

In order to pull a top free agent and stay under the cap while keeping your key cogs, this is how it would have to be. Not much of a bench but the starting unit is very good.

[cd021]

I couldn't disagree more tbh, but then everyone has an opinion so agree to disagree. I think people massively underrate the effect Duncan and Manu have on the team dynamics and everyone who's longing for a quick rebuild will be extremely disappointed going into Philly's viscious circle of gathering assets.

Phily is in the midst of unprecedented tanking.

-traded an all star for two lottery picks (Noel and Sariic)
-traded to starters for second round picks (Turner and Hawes) on way to losing 23 straight games
-Drafted Embiid (who will miss the majority of the season, but is considered to be the best player in the draft)

I could see the Spurs being having an Indy like rebuild. Finishing in the mid to late lottery and drafting well.

Danny Granger-1st round, 17th pick
Paul George- 1st round, 10th pick
Lan Stephenson- 2nd round, 40th overall pick
Roy Hibbert-1st round, 17th pick (Indy traded for him 3 weeks following him being drafted by Toronto)

The Spurs already have a great start with Leonard and have several potential role players in Anderson, Livio, & Bertans all under 23. Not to mention a better front office and coaching and a bigger market.

[TD 21]

to be fair ...

Duncan-12.2 FGA, 15.1 PPG,=1.23 PPS

Milsap-14.1 FGA, 17.9 PPG,=1.27 PPS

if Duncan averaged the same amount of shot attempts per game, he would average about 17.3 ppg.

The second scenario leaves very little wiggle room, not to mention that I screwed up the depth chart and put Beli on it (the Spurs likely wouldn't be able to bring him back).

They would have $64.6 million to 11 players (including Bertans, 2015 first rounder and LJC) they would only have $1.5 million of remaining cap space, a vet. minimum deal which brings it up to $67.6 + 9.5 (16.7 million total for Kawhi, once the Spurs resign Leonard to a five year extension )=$77.1 million for 13 players.

The luxury tax would be around $81 million

our bench would actually be
Mills
SG
Anderson
Bertans
Diaw
LJC-Baynes
Vet. Min
first rounder

Now that is an underwhelming bench but as you mentioned it may not be as big of a deal. Diaw shouldn't be over burdened (I'm thinking in terms of minutes) with that bench. Diaw and Mills would be the primary options with more pressure on them to produce on a nightly basis.

Then again Milsap would only be 30 and would top 30 minutes (probably 32 mpg) leaving Diaw for about 16 mpg at PF (barring injuries and Diaw having to step into a bigger role)

In order to pull a top free agent and stay under the cap while keeping your key cogs, this is how it would have to be. Not much of a bench but the starting unit is very good.

Close enough, but again, context matters. If Duncan were on the Hawks, he'd be the full time C offensively, which probably means less mid range jumpers and that changes the entire equation.

As far as the bench, I'd be looking for a relatively low cost player who can defend and shoot the three at least adequately, while also providing some secondary ball handling. Someone like Bazemore would be a nice fit with Mills and Anderson on the perimeter.

Backup C would still be a gaping hole, but there are always low cost finds to be had. A guy like Ayon has flashed some potential in the past, injuries have derailed his career for the moment and he'll probably have to go back overseas. But if he stays healthy and plays to his potential, he could easily be back in the league as a decent enough backup.

[Chinook]

I'd much rather sign Johnson/trade for Ilyasova and spend only $8 Million rather than sign Millsap for $12.5 Million. The Spurs need to target a strong bench wing and a backup center. I don't know anything about a wing (Kevin Martin in a trade perhaps?) but I like Seraphin for the center spot.

[cd021]

I'd much rather sign Johnson/trade for Ilyasova and spend only $8 Million rather than sign Millsap for $12.5 Million. The Spurs need to target a strong bench wing and a backup center. I don't know anything about a wing (Kevin Martin in a trade perhaps?) but I like Seraphin for the center spot.

What would you think it would take to get Illysova from Milwaukee? I'd personally, rather have Milsap over Johnson though.


I like Martin and he is certainly obtainable for the Spurs. Minny has been shopping Martin and have been looking to unload his deal.

The Spurs could ship Marco Belinelli, Jeff Ayers and a first round pick for Martin.

Minny would save $ 10 million and pick up an additional first rounder.

That would give the Spurs to get some scoring punch off the bench (or additional scoring punch if Manu returns). He's affordable and an efficient scorer.

In Scenario 1- The Spurs would have 12 players for $67.5 million + the mid level exception to add around Parker, Leonard, Splitter, Green, Martin and Manu.


In scenario 2- The Spurs could ,conceivable, have a roster that includes both Milsap and Martin along with a returning Danny Green (who would need to be resigned with bird rights).

They would have 67.4 to 11 players (including Leonard's cap hold and taking Bertans out of this scenario). Add a couple of minimum deals and they would be hovering around $80 million in payroll after Leonard gets extended. That should be slightly below where the luxury tax will be.

[cd021]

Close enough, but again, context matters. If Duncan were on the Hawks, he'd be the full time C offensively, which probably means less mid range jumpers and that changes the entire equation.

As far as the bench, I'd be looking for a relatively low cost player who can defend and shoot the three at least adequately, while also providing some secondary ball handling. Someone like Bazemore would be a nice fit with Mills and Anderson on the perimeter.

Backup C would still be a gaping hole, but there are always low cost finds to be had. A guy like Ayon has flashed some potential in the past, injuries have derailed his career for the moment and he'll probably have to go back overseas. But if he stays healthy and plays to his potential, he could easily be back in the league as a decent enough backup.


Samuel Dalembert is an UFA and a good defender and rebounder. He'll be 34 by the time he hits market. The Spurs could draft a big as well for depth and have him develop behind Splitter and Dalembert.

[Chinook]

What would you think it would take to get Illysova from Milwaukee? I'd personally, rather have Milsap over Johnson though.


I like Martin and he is certainly obtainable for the Spurs. Minny has been shopping Martin and have been looking to unload his deal.

The Spurs could ship Marco Belinelli, Jeff Ayers and a first round pick for Martin.

Minny would save $ 10 million and pick up an additional first rounder.

That would give the Spurs to get some scoring punch off the bench (or additional scoring punch if Manu returns). He's affordable and an efficient scorer.

In Scenario 1- The Spurs would have 12 players for $67.5 million + the mid level exception to add around Parker, Leonard, Splitter, Green, Martin and Manu.


In scenario 2- The Spurs could ,conceivable, have a roster that includes both Milsap and Martin along with a returning Danny Green (who would need to be resigned with bird rights).

They would have 67.4 to 11 players (including Leonard's cap hold and taking Bertans out of this scenario). Add a couple of minimum deals and they would be hovering around $80 million in payroll after Leonard gets extended. That should be slightly below where the luxury tax will be.

I doubt Martin or Ilyasova have much positive trade value right now. That could certainly change next off-season, however. Provided that it doesn't, I think the Spurs could trade for both while also keeping their first-round pick by giving up rights to overseas players and future seconds, and by allowing both teams to send those players away while taking no money back. Then, they could also come to an agreement with either Dalembert as you said or Seraphin to be their backup five. If Baynes does end up leaving the Spurs this off-season (and Cotton hangs on), the 2015 roster could look at follows:

PG: Parker, Mills, Cotton
SG: Green, Martin,
SF: Leonard, Anderson
PF: Ilyasova, Diaw, Jean-Charles
C: Splitter, Seraphin

With probably just enough room to squeeze in either their pick or a long-term deal for a player like Bertans. So then, assuming an $8.7-Million increase for Leonard (from his cap hold to his max), the Spurs could have $4 Million to fill their roster (on two players) before the tax kicks in. They could still use the room exception and sign one min deal or simply leave the 15th spot open for emergencies.

The only downside to this is that the team would be pretty dependent on the cap (and tax line) to outgrow their players' salaries in 2016. This should happen, but it would very risky. The benefit of this, however, is that the Spurs would actually be poised to shed a lot of salary again in 2017, when Splitter, Mills, Martin, Ilyasova and the room-exception player would all roll off the books, and when Diaw's contract would become fully non-guaranteed. As per this scenario, the Spurs would only have Parker, Leonard, Green, Anderson, LJC, their 2016 pick under guaranteed contract for a total between $40 Million and $43 Million. Considering how much the cap is projected to jump then, they'd have another max contract slot to offer then, in addition to at least one other mid-sized deal.

Oh, the possibilities...

[TD 21]

Samuel Dalembert is an UFA and a good defender and rebounder. He'll be 34 by the time he hits market. The Spurs could draft a big as well for depth and have him develop behind Splitter and Dalembert.

Yeah, he'd work as a stopgap. I'd prefer younger, but he'd obviously be a clear upgrade over Ayres/Baynes.

Good one, Chinook. Seraphin is a better example of what I was getting at than Ayon, given the fact that he's four years younger and has a higher upside.

Even if Duncan comes back for another season, I could see them pursuing him next off season, as the only other bigs guaranteed to return are Splitter and Diaw. But post Duncan, unless the PF they splurge on can also credibly play C, they have to find a second C who's either good enough or has enough upside to be up to a 20 mpg player, without spending too much.