wildchild
08-05-2013, 11:33 PM
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9540148/nba-projecting-top-10-small-forwards-warp-2013-14
Doolittle has projected Kawhi Leonard as the third best SF next season
By Bradford Doolittle
What is the NBA's most loaded position? In the opener of our positional ranking series, I noted that it is a point guard-dominated league these days, and that's certainly true. However, part of that uptick in value for the position is due to a couple of evolutionary factors. When the NBA cracked down on hand-checking and banished other restraints on defensive scheming, the game opened up. Small guards who used to be muscled can crossover defenders at will, and with offenses trending to spacing the floor, there is plenty of room for these ultra-quick players to operate. Pick-and-roll became the default offensive set, and fast, dribble-penetrating guards became a must for every team's roster.
Scoring has become as important as playmaking for many of these guards, and the distinction between the backcourt decisions has blurred. Pure playmakers like Steve Nash and Ricky Rubio are now the exception, rather than the rule. Some teams -- Cleveland is a perfect example, with Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters -- start a pair of combo guards who in many respects are interchangeable.
Nevertheless, as we unveil our rankings of forwards this week, you can't help but notice that the top two players at these positions (LeBron James and Kevin Durant) are -- and have been -- the top overall players in the league the last few years. So while there are seemingly more high-value point guards than any other position, does that group offer the most overall composite value?
The answer is yes, but it's close. And I remind you again about the caveat that assigning a primary position to a player in today's NBA is often more art than science. Positional usage is something I track, and in most cases, I've assigned each player the position he played most often last season. Thus James and Carmelo Anthony won't show up until the power forward rankings.
On the other hand, Andre Iguodala, who was primarily a 2 in Denver, is included with the 3s because that's his likely spot now that he's in Golden State. All of this blurs the real value between positions. However, it seems clear that wings are asked to do less than the other spots.
Here's the series primer: As the depth charts have filled, so have the forecasts generated by ATH coalesced. ATH, you may recall, is the projection module of NBAPET, my system of integrated spreadsheets for tracking, evaluating and forecasting all things NBA. Players are ranked according to ATH's forecasted WARP, or wins above replacement level, which accounts for a player's efficiency, volume of production and team context.
Here are the projected top 10 small forwards for the 2013-14 NBA season.
1. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 18.3
Durant has to eventually stop getting better, right? Last season, he soared to 22.4 WARP, and his projection for this season is merely a statistical model seeing some regression to the mean. Seasons in which a player combines a usage rate of at least 30 percent with a true shooting percentage of .600 or better are historically rare. Durant has made it a matter of routine, and ATH is forecasting another such a season. He also improved his assist rate for the second straight season, a gain ATH sees Durant mostly retaining.
2. Paul Pierce, Brooklyn Nets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.6
Pierce is entering a contract year, and at 36 years old, he may not have many more of those. He's aged remarkably well, though you can see in the projections of Durant and Pierce the gap in value between a borderline All-Star and an MVP candidate. Pierce has hit double digits in WARP in each of the last three seasons, but it remains to be seen how he'll fit into the new hierarchy in Brooklyn. ATH sees Pierce retaining his efficiency and more, with an uptick in true shooting percentage from .559 to .592. However, the system sees a 4.4 percent drop in usage rate as he'll have less to do in the stacked Nets lineup.
3. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.0
People are still irritated at ATH's projection for Tony Parker, but Spurs fans shouldn't worry because Leonard is there to pick up the slack. One of the league's rising stars, the system sees Leonard reaching All-Star level production in 2013-14 with a winning percentage creeping over the .600 mark. Most of that is efficiency and defense, with a forecasted 3-point success rate of 40.5 percent. His usage rate is projected to remain mostly stagnant, but if he edges it close to league average, look out.
4. Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.9
Iguodala's efficiency dropped last season, which was a surprise considering his supposed fit in George Karl's system. His turnover rate jumped by more than 3 percent, and his 3-point shooting slipped from .394 to .317. Also, perhaps because he played more 2 than 3, his defensive rating fell off a little as well. ATH sees Iguodala bouncing back this season as a Warrior, though not quite to the level of his best seasons in Philadelphia. He turns 30 in January and another a drop in rebounding and foul-drawing would be evidence that Iggy is losing a shade of his elite athleticism.
5. Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.8
Batum's steady improvement hit a plateau in his fifth NBA season, and his 2.2 percent loss in usage rate suggests that playing alongside Damian Lillard may have actually impacted his game in a surprisingly negative fashion. For Portland to get back into the playoff hunt this season, Batum needs to be a stronger No. 3 to the core duo of Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. Right now, Batum is perimeter-oriented but his 3-point success rate was just around league average last season. He's been around 40 percent a couple of times, and if he can get back to that, then perhaps he can make more plays of off the dribble and add some much-needed trips to the foul line.
6. Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.4
We don't know yet if Granger's knee trouble is chronic, and ATH sees him recovering much of his pre-injury value. I'm skeptical. Even without the injuries, Granger is getting on in years as he hits 31 near the end of the season. He's also likely to be Indiana's fourth option now with Paul George's emergence. If he can embrace that role with heretofore unseen efficiency, then he can help keep the Pacers in the title hunt.
7. Paul George, Indiana Pacers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 6.8
Speaking of George, his playoff breakout isn't represented here, and subjectively, I do see that performance as a coming-of-age rather than a fluke. So while I can't get ATH to replicate the effect, I think George will soar near the top of these rankings and will supplant Granger in the former Indiana offensive hierarchy.
8. Andrei Kirilenko, Brooklyn Nets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.2
Between Pierce and Kirilenko the Nets have the best combination at small forward of any team in the league, and the duo should be a good fit to play together in different lineup configurations. Like Pierce, Kirilenko is projected to give up some of his possessions, but his true shooting percentage is forecast to surpass .600 for the first time in five years. He turns 33 this season, however all of his athletic indictors remain strong.
9. Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.2
The last three ranked players on the small forward list represent what the position has become for so many teams: A floor-spacing position filled by guys who shoot a high percentage from the corner. Korver is the prototype, and while he's certainly not an elite individual defender, he doesn't kill you in the team concept. The Hawks didn't get much out of Korver's fine passing skills last season, but with a new roster, maybe that facet of his game will bounce back.
10. Chandler Parsons, Houston Rockets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 4.8
If there was a way to subjectively tweak WARP to give Parsons extra credit for his role in recruiting Dwight Howard to Houston, he'd rank higher. As it is, I think ATH is underrating Parsons, both for what he's done and what he should do going forward playing off Howard and James Harden. The system sees a little regression in his 3-point percentage and thus his true shooting percentage, but I wouldn't be surprised to see those figures continue on an upwards arc.
Next five:
t-10. Matt Barnes/Jared Dudley
11. Carlos Delfino
12. Gordon Hayward
13. Luol Deng
14. Rudy Gay
I paired Barnes and Dudley because they play the same position for the same team and have the same projected WARP. Needless to say, the Clippers are in good shape at 3, with two high-efficiency players who represent two of the better bargains in the league.
The comer in this group is Hayward, who should get more of a featured role in what promises to be a very young Jazz lineup. He was one of the standouts in the Team USA summer workouts in Las Vegas, and may be ready for his close-up, so to speak. If he can sharpen his 3-point stroke to the 40-percent range, then his abilities to make plays inside the arc will be that much more enhanced. With rookie Trey Burke taking over at point guard, Hayward may also take on more of a playmaking role.
ATH sees Deng falling hard in a contract year, and he does have a lot of mileage on his body for a player who doesn't turn 29 until near the end of the season. That said, Derrick Rose's absence affected Deng's offensive efficiency is a big way, and the return of the star point guard may help Deng sidestep any loss in production. As for Gay, ATH and WARP aren't fond of extreme high-volume, low-efficiency types, and a little shot selection would go a long way towards getting Gay into the top 10.
Also notable: Gerald Wallace, Danilo Gallinari, Jeff Green, Harrison Barnes.
Going from Wallace to a Pierce-Kirilenko combo at 3 is about as strong of a positional upgrade a team can make during an offseason. Gallinari's return from a knee injury is uncertain, and undermines his projection. With a healthy forecast, he'd rank somewhere around fifth. Green looked great towards the end of last season, but he'll have to prove himself over a full campaign to improve his baseline.
Barnes' replacement-level forecast is an improvement on a rookie year that showed promise, but still doesn't reflect how well he played in the postseason. Those postseason breakouts can be misleading anyway, and Barnes now has to adjust to coming off the bench.
Doolittle has projected Kawhi Leonard as the third best SF next season
By Bradford Doolittle
What is the NBA's most loaded position? In the opener of our positional ranking series, I noted that it is a point guard-dominated league these days, and that's certainly true. However, part of that uptick in value for the position is due to a couple of evolutionary factors. When the NBA cracked down on hand-checking and banished other restraints on defensive scheming, the game opened up. Small guards who used to be muscled can crossover defenders at will, and with offenses trending to spacing the floor, there is plenty of room for these ultra-quick players to operate. Pick-and-roll became the default offensive set, and fast, dribble-penetrating guards became a must for every team's roster.
Scoring has become as important as playmaking for many of these guards, and the distinction between the backcourt decisions has blurred. Pure playmakers like Steve Nash and Ricky Rubio are now the exception, rather than the rule. Some teams -- Cleveland is a perfect example, with Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters -- start a pair of combo guards who in many respects are interchangeable.
Nevertheless, as we unveil our rankings of forwards this week, you can't help but notice that the top two players at these positions (LeBron James and Kevin Durant) are -- and have been -- the top overall players in the league the last few years. So while there are seemingly more high-value point guards than any other position, does that group offer the most overall composite value?
The answer is yes, but it's close. And I remind you again about the caveat that assigning a primary position to a player in today's NBA is often more art than science. Positional usage is something I track, and in most cases, I've assigned each player the position he played most often last season. Thus James and Carmelo Anthony won't show up until the power forward rankings.
On the other hand, Andre Iguodala, who was primarily a 2 in Denver, is included with the 3s because that's his likely spot now that he's in Golden State. All of this blurs the real value between positions. However, it seems clear that wings are asked to do less than the other spots.
Here's the series primer: As the depth charts have filled, so have the forecasts generated by ATH coalesced. ATH, you may recall, is the projection module of NBAPET, my system of integrated spreadsheets for tracking, evaluating and forecasting all things NBA. Players are ranked according to ATH's forecasted WARP, or wins above replacement level, which accounts for a player's efficiency, volume of production and team context.
Here are the projected top 10 small forwards for the 2013-14 NBA season.
1. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 18.3
Durant has to eventually stop getting better, right? Last season, he soared to 22.4 WARP, and his projection for this season is merely a statistical model seeing some regression to the mean. Seasons in which a player combines a usage rate of at least 30 percent with a true shooting percentage of .600 or better are historically rare. Durant has made it a matter of routine, and ATH is forecasting another such a season. He also improved his assist rate for the second straight season, a gain ATH sees Durant mostly retaining.
2. Paul Pierce, Brooklyn Nets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.6
Pierce is entering a contract year, and at 36 years old, he may not have many more of those. He's aged remarkably well, though you can see in the projections of Durant and Pierce the gap in value between a borderline All-Star and an MVP candidate. Pierce has hit double digits in WARP in each of the last three seasons, but it remains to be seen how he'll fit into the new hierarchy in Brooklyn. ATH sees Pierce retaining his efficiency and more, with an uptick in true shooting percentage from .559 to .592. However, the system sees a 4.4 percent drop in usage rate as he'll have less to do in the stacked Nets lineup.
3. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.0
People are still irritated at ATH's projection for Tony Parker, but Spurs fans shouldn't worry because Leonard is there to pick up the slack. One of the league's rising stars, the system sees Leonard reaching All-Star level production in 2013-14 with a winning percentage creeping over the .600 mark. Most of that is efficiency and defense, with a forecasted 3-point success rate of 40.5 percent. His usage rate is projected to remain mostly stagnant, but if he edges it close to league average, look out.
4. Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.9
Iguodala's efficiency dropped last season, which was a surprise considering his supposed fit in George Karl's system. His turnover rate jumped by more than 3 percent, and his 3-point shooting slipped from .394 to .317. Also, perhaps because he played more 2 than 3, his defensive rating fell off a little as well. ATH sees Iguodala bouncing back this season as a Warrior, though not quite to the level of his best seasons in Philadelphia. He turns 30 in January and another a drop in rebounding and foul-drawing would be evidence that Iggy is losing a shade of his elite athleticism.
5. Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.8
Batum's steady improvement hit a plateau in his fifth NBA season, and his 2.2 percent loss in usage rate suggests that playing alongside Damian Lillard may have actually impacted his game in a surprisingly negative fashion. For Portland to get back into the playoff hunt this season, Batum needs to be a stronger No. 3 to the core duo of Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. Right now, Batum is perimeter-oriented but his 3-point success rate was just around league average last season. He's been around 40 percent a couple of times, and if he can get back to that, then perhaps he can make more plays of off the dribble and add some much-needed trips to the foul line.
6. Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.4
We don't know yet if Granger's knee trouble is chronic, and ATH sees him recovering much of his pre-injury value. I'm skeptical. Even without the injuries, Granger is getting on in years as he hits 31 near the end of the season. He's also likely to be Indiana's fourth option now with Paul George's emergence. If he can embrace that role with heretofore unseen efficiency, then he can help keep the Pacers in the title hunt.
7. Paul George, Indiana Pacers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 6.8
Speaking of George, his playoff breakout isn't represented here, and subjectively, I do see that performance as a coming-of-age rather than a fluke. So while I can't get ATH to replicate the effect, I think George will soar near the top of these rankings and will supplant Granger in the former Indiana offensive hierarchy.
8. Andrei Kirilenko, Brooklyn Nets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.2
Between Pierce and Kirilenko the Nets have the best combination at small forward of any team in the league, and the duo should be a good fit to play together in different lineup configurations. Like Pierce, Kirilenko is projected to give up some of his possessions, but his true shooting percentage is forecast to surpass .600 for the first time in five years. He turns 33 this season, however all of his athletic indictors remain strong.
9. Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.2
The last three ranked players on the small forward list represent what the position has become for so many teams: A floor-spacing position filled by guys who shoot a high percentage from the corner. Korver is the prototype, and while he's certainly not an elite individual defender, he doesn't kill you in the team concept. The Hawks didn't get much out of Korver's fine passing skills last season, but with a new roster, maybe that facet of his game will bounce back.
10. Chandler Parsons, Houston Rockets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 4.8
If there was a way to subjectively tweak WARP to give Parsons extra credit for his role in recruiting Dwight Howard to Houston, he'd rank higher. As it is, I think ATH is underrating Parsons, both for what he's done and what he should do going forward playing off Howard and James Harden. The system sees a little regression in his 3-point percentage and thus his true shooting percentage, but I wouldn't be surprised to see those figures continue on an upwards arc.
Next five:
t-10. Matt Barnes/Jared Dudley
11. Carlos Delfino
12. Gordon Hayward
13. Luol Deng
14. Rudy Gay
I paired Barnes and Dudley because they play the same position for the same team and have the same projected WARP. Needless to say, the Clippers are in good shape at 3, with two high-efficiency players who represent two of the better bargains in the league.
The comer in this group is Hayward, who should get more of a featured role in what promises to be a very young Jazz lineup. He was one of the standouts in the Team USA summer workouts in Las Vegas, and may be ready for his close-up, so to speak. If he can sharpen his 3-point stroke to the 40-percent range, then his abilities to make plays inside the arc will be that much more enhanced. With rookie Trey Burke taking over at point guard, Hayward may also take on more of a playmaking role.
ATH sees Deng falling hard in a contract year, and he does have a lot of mileage on his body for a player who doesn't turn 29 until near the end of the season. That said, Derrick Rose's absence affected Deng's offensive efficiency is a big way, and the return of the star point guard may help Deng sidestep any loss in production. As for Gay, ATH and WARP aren't fond of extreme high-volume, low-efficiency types, and a little shot selection would go a long way towards getting Gay into the top 10.
Also notable: Gerald Wallace, Danilo Gallinari, Jeff Green, Harrison Barnes.
Going from Wallace to a Pierce-Kirilenko combo at 3 is about as strong of a positional upgrade a team can make during an offseason. Gallinari's return from a knee injury is uncertain, and undermines his projection. With a healthy forecast, he'd rank somewhere around fifth. Green looked great towards the end of last season, but he'll have to prove himself over a full campaign to improve his baseline.
Barnes' replacement-level forecast is an improvement on a rookie year that showed promise, but still doesn't reflect how well he played in the postseason. Those postseason breakouts can be misleading anyway, and Barnes now has to adjust to coming off the bench.