The almost irreplaceable Pau

[ambchang]

We all know how important MVPau is to the Lakers over the years. He has been instrumental in the success of one of the most storied franchise in league history.

We know that MVPau hasn't been given his rightful credit over the years due to his soft-spoken nature, but don't let that fool you, he was the driving force behind the Lakers success before injuries did him in. His combination of low post dominance, amiable personality and on-court intelligence propelled the Lakers from 1st round fodder to b2b champions. Looking back at the MVPau years with the Lakers, I wondered whether MVPau was a replaceable piece on the Lakers, and after comparing him to the players of the same year, it became quite certain that MVPau was pretty much irreplaceable.

Looking at the 08-09 season, MVPau had a WS/48 of .220. This year, the Lakers won rather handily due to a myriad of injuries to Boston. That year, the only F/C playing more than 20mpg in the regular and had a higher ws/48 than MVP was Dwight. In the playoffs, D12 and Dirk were the only ones (.241 and .238 vs. .221). Given D12's game, I would say that Dirk would be the only substitute to replace MVPau in the playoffs and lead them to victory, but then Dirk's regular season probably won't put the Lakers in a position to get HCA vs. Orlando, this is a toss up, but I would say Dirk can reasonably replace MVPau.

Fast forward to 09-10. Given how tight the NBA finals was and how many FTs the Lakers shot in the 4th quarter to "overcome" a significant deficit, it would be safe to say that if you replace MVPau with any lesser player, the Lakers wouldn't have rung. Of all the F/C in the league that year, only D12 and Durant had a higher WS/48 than MVP in the regular season (.223 and .238 vs. MVPs .220), and in the playoffs, the only other player who played more than 20 mins/gm in the playoffs to have a higher ws/48 than MVP was Dirk (.291 vs. .224). Given D12's role and basketball IQ, I am pretty confident in saying that he will not be able to replace MVPau and lead the Lakers to victory, Even though I can see an MVP level talent like Durant or Dirk replacing MVPau in the playoffs, neither of their regular season performance would lead the Lakers to HCA throughout (aka ridiculous amounts of FTA in the 4th quarter of Game 7), so I am siding with MVPau being irreplaceable this season.

So there you have it, MVPau was the real deal, won the Lakers two championship as the main engine, and was almost irreplaceable in those two years. Kudos MVPau.

[AaronY]

win shares
lol

[AchillesHeel]

Pau was the best Laker in 2010. While Kirby did a great job getting the team through the WCF, when they played against a real defense in Boston, Pau took over. Kirby shot 40% in the Finals,43% the year prior and he was in his PRIME. Even a 33 year old MJ shot better than Kirby in the 2010 Finals, and against prime Payton.

Kirby takes bad shots which hurts his team, I looked at those game 7 misses, the shot selection was god awful.

Anyways, without Pau Kirby is stuck at 3.

[Medvedenko]

Never understood the fascination of shooting %'s especially given the role said player inhabits on the floor. If you bump up Kobe's shooting %'s to 50%, he still only wins 5 rings...does it really matter?
Regardless, Pau was as equally important to their last 2 rings just as he was equally important to them losing in 08.

[Buddy Mignon]

Pau has been missing in action for three fucking years. He can't even win a playoff game without Kobe.

[Michael Jordan.]

Pau has been missing in action for three fucking years. He can't even win a playoff game without Kobe.
Memphis never made the playoffs before Gasol. See what I did there?

[Medvedenko]

Memphis never made the playoffs before Gasol. See what I did there?

Honestly, you've been putting a lot of work this offseason. Kudos to you always finding an arguement, although without the light, you can't have the dark.

[Michael Jordan.]

The Irreplaceable Pau indeed. Nigga exhibiting what clutch really is.

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OKLAHOMA CITY(AP) Pau Gasol tipped in a missed jumper by Kobe Bryant :lol with a half-second left and the Los Angeles Lakers survived a late comeback effort by Oklahoma City and eliminated the Thunder 95-94 in Game 6 of the first-round playoff series on Friday night.

[Medvedenko]

Nice vids. Shows what a great team that Laker team was in 09-10.

[Killakobe81]

Spur fan counters the overeating of Kobe by fanbois by overeating Pau, great strategy
Why don't I do the same with Frenchy?! Because it is basketball idiocy. Both are great foreign players who were instrumental to the last two titles in SA and LA but neither has won shit as the alpha. Just, stop.

[AchillesHeel]

Never understood the fascination of shooting %'s especially given the role said player inhabits on the floor. If you bump up Kobe's shooting %'s to 50%, he still only wins 5 rings...does it really matter?
Regardless, Pau was as equally important to their last 2 rings just as he was equally important to them losing in 08.

All I know is if Kirby averaged 50% FG against the Pistons in 04 or Celtics in 08, he probably has 6 titles. He shot 38% vs Pistons in 04, 22 attemtps for 22 ppg.

Of course the %s matter, if he had been more efficient in those 2 Finals losses his team would have won. Both Finals were winnable, they don't blow the lead on their home floor in Game 4 and they go to Boston up 3 - 2, with 2 chances to win the title. If Kirby shot 50% from the field in 08 Lakers easily win it all.

[Killakobe81]

All I know is if Kirby averaged 50% FG against the Pistons in 04 or Celtics in 08, he probably has 6 titles. He shot 38% vs Pistons in 04, 22 attemtps for 22 ppg.

Of course the %s matter, if he had been more efficient in those 2 Finals losses his team would have won. Both Finals were winnable, they don't blow the lead on their home floor in Game 4 and they go to Boston up 3 - 2, with 2 chances to win the title. If Kirby shot 50% from the field in 08 Lakers easily win it all.

Doubt it. Only way he shoots that high if he stops shooting and neither team had another playmaker capable of filling that role. Shaq in 04 could of and should have gotten more touches but still would not change that series. Lakers were on fumes Malone was hurt GP was a shell ... We were not better than the Pistons and if Fisher misses .4 we don't even make the Finals tbh. That team was such a huge disappointment more than last year's team GP was one of my all-time favorite non Lakers. I was never a Karl fan but adding those two with Shaqobe with Phil ...but the feud, Colorado, Gp hating the triangle made that a horrible season.

[ambchang]

Spur fan counters the overeating of Kobe by fanbois by overeating Pau, great strategy
Why don't I do the same with Frenchy?! Because it is basketball idiocy. Both are great foreign players who were instrumental to the last two titles in SA and LA but neither has won shit as the alpha. Just, stop.

Tough to do, Parker, with his best year in 2007, had 6 guards with a better ws/48 in the regular season than him, including his teammates Manu Ginobili and Brent Barry.

In the playoffs, there were 16 guards with a better ws/48 minutes.

I am not even going to waste time looking up numbers in 05 (Ginobili was the man and very much irreplaceable), 03 (rookie), 99 (not yet in NBA).

[StrengthAndHonor]

All I know is if Kirby averaged 50% FG against the Pistons in 04 or Celtics in 08, he probably has 6 titles. He shot 38% vs Pistons in 04, 22 attemtps for 22 ppg.

Of course the %s matter, if he had been more efficient in those 2 Finals losses his team would have won. Both Finals were winnable, they don't blow the lead on their home floor in Game 4 and they go to Boston up 3 - 2, with 2 chances to win the title. If Kirby shot 50% from the field in 08 Lakers easily win it all.

Unlikely. That Celtics team destroyed that very same idea when they beat Cleveland. Lebron shot 50% in the series and still lost.

I hate arguments like this because it's a fallacy to think one player can beat a great team in a series.

For those who really remember, there's little doubt that 2008 Boston team was one of the best defensive team in history.

[AchillesHeel]

Unlikely. That Celtics team destroyed that very same idea when they beat Cleveland. Lebron shot 50% in the series and still lost.

I hate arguments like this because it's a fallacy to think one player can beat a great team in a series.

For those who really remember, there's little doubt that 2008 Boston team was one of the best defensive team in history.


Kobe had a much better cast than Lebron, replace Kobe with Lebron in the Finals and the Lakers win.

Kirby shot like shit the whole series and turned the ball over, and this is PRIME Kirby we are talking about.

[Medvedenko]

Kobe had a much better cast than Lebron, replace Kobe with Lebron in the Finals and the Lakers win.

Kirby shot like shit the whole series and turned the ball over, and this is PRIME Kirby we are talking about.

It's a team game bro. There's been times when Kobe's shot awesome and they lost and when he's shot poorly and they've prevailed. Each game is different and players of his ilk take on the heavy lifting of scoring, however if you have to take into consideration the intangibles and non sexy stats like asssits, steals and rebounds. Replace Kobe with Lebron on the Heat and they still win. That's the point brah.

[AchillesHeel]

It's a team game bro. There's been times when Kobe's shot awesome and they lost and when he's shot poorly and they've prevailed. Each game is different and players of his ilk take on the heavy lifting of scoring, however if you have to take into consideration the intangibles and non sexy stats like asssits, steals and rebounds. Replace Kobe with Lebron on the Heat and they still win. That's the point brah.

Heat still win? Wade and Bosh both were horrible this year. Miami's defense is built around Lebron, with Kirby their defense goes from best in the league to 10-15th, their offense also gets worse because you replace 57% shooting with 44-46% shooting and now you have two aging SG's who are battling injuries. They don't win squat. They'd only make the Finals if everyone was healthy and they had Phil instead of Spo.

Phil said Kirby's defense was declining 9 years ago, since 2008 Kirby's defense has been massively overrated.

Point is if Kirby isn't hot he's gonna hurt his team because he doesn't really provide much other than streaky offense. He rarely shoots above 50% in games. Scrubs like Wilson Chandler score 30 points on him because he doesn't bother to rotate nor run back on D when he bricks his shot.

I'm guessing you're trolling, anyone that knows something about basketball would know that Kirby is nothing but a scorer who has the skillset to play point guard and who can play solid defense when he really tries but he's no Lebron James. He isn't huge nor is he athletically gifted like MJ or VC, he's a good shooter and a great shot creator who takes bad shots. Who would rather shoot a contested, long 3 before passing it to someone with a better look when the game is on the line. He will always be a ballhog and a chucker.

[Medvedenko]

Heat still win? Wade and Bosh both were horrible this year. Miami's defense is built around Lebron, with Kirby their defense goes from best in the league to 10-15th, their offense also gets worse because you replace 57% shooting with 44-46% shooting and now you have two aging SG's who are battling injuries. They don't win squat. They'd only make the Finals if everyone was healthy and they had Phil instead of Spo.

Phil said Kirby's defense was declining 9 years ago, since 2008 Kirby's defense has been massively overrated.

Point is if Kirby isn't hot he's gonna hurt his team because he doesn't really provide much other than streaky offense. He rarely shoots above 50% in games. Scrubs like Wilson Chandler score 30 points on him because he doesn't bother to rotate nor run back on D when he bricks his shot.

I'm guessing you're trolling, anyone that knows something about basketball would know that Kirby is nothing but a scorer who has the skillset to play point guard and who can play solid defense when he really tries but he's no Lebron James. He isn't huge nor is he athletically gifted like MJ or VC, he's a good shooter and a great shot creator who takes bad shots. Who would rather shoot a contested, long 3 before passing it to someone with a better look when the game is on the line. He will always be a ballhog and a chucker.

Then stop posting, you're not going to change my mind.....you clearly haven't seen his career as I or Laker fans have. Just like I didn't appreciate MJ when I was a kid (in my teens) (didn't buy into the Hype and the amount of dick sucking the media gave him in the 90's) watching bball and only recenlty began to appreciate his impact on the game. Tell me, how old are you? Trust me, it makes a world of difference in your critque. Watch the games, not youtube clips.

[AchillesHeel]

Then stop posting, you're not going to change my mind.....you clearly haven't seen his career as I or Laker fans have. Just like I didn't appreciate MJ when I was a kid (in my teens) (didn't buy into the Hype and the amount of dick sucking the media gave him in the 90's) watching bball and only recenlty began to appreciate his impact on the game. Tell me, how old are you? Trust me, it makes a world of difference in your critque. Watch the games, not youtube clips.

I watch as many games as I can, probably 2-3 games a night during the regular season. I watch every single team play and I know more about your team than you do. Youtube clips make Kirby look great and comparable to MJ but when you look at how many shots he actually misses and how turnover prone he is, you come to realizing how overrated this man is. No doubt he's a 5-time champion and one of the best scorers we've ever seen but that doesn't mean I'm not allowed to criticize him. He single-handedly threw away the series vs OKC in 2012 with his late game turnovers and bricks. What I see is that Lakers are pretty average in crunch time and that they lose more games than they win in the clutch with Kobe Bean Bryant always taking every shot.

I look at the stats, I demand FACTS, not "oh, he has a pretty turnaround" or "oh, he scored 81 points against one of the worst teams in the league that year".

Get your head out of your ass and see what's really going on, you watch too much ESPN.

[Killakobe81]

Tough to do, Parker, with his best year in 2007, had 6 guards with a better ws/48 in the regular season than him, including his teammates Manu Ginobili and Brent Barry.

In the playoffs, there were 16 guards with a better ws/48 minutes.

I am not even going to waste time looking up numbers in 05 (Ginobili was the man and very much irreplaceable), 03 (rookie), 99 (not yet in NBA).

Sure, because winshares are the endall, beall

[ambchang]

Sure, because winshares are the endall, beall

What other metrics do you want used? Are you saying that the Spurs would not have been able to win the 07 championship by replacing Parker with a list of other players, such as Nash, CP3, Deron Williams, Jason Kidd, Wade, Lebron, or even Kobe, Arenas, Iverson and Joe Johnson?

[spurraider21]

What other metrics do you want used? Are you saying that the Spurs would not have been able to win the 07 championship by replacing Parker with a list of other players, such as Nash, CP3, Deron Williams, Jason Kidd, Wade, Lebron, or even Kobe, Arenas, Iverson and Joe Johnson?

using any one metric as your sole measure of judgement is about as meaningful as going with a simple ring count

[ambchang]

using any one metric as your sole measure of judgement is about as meaningful as going with a simple ring count

That's why I listed those players. Please tell me which from that list of people would replace Parker in 2007, and the Spurs would not have won the title?
There are some arguable ones for sure, but I am pretty confident that the Parker replaceable list is certainly a lot longer than the Pau replaceable list.

[Killakobe81]

This. And my point is Duncan like all great players needed hof help to win. Duncan in 05 and the first Rox title are the closest to winning without it. But now that we see what Manu is, Tony is or even how clutch a young Big Shot Rob and Cassel were they had more help than previously believed.
The better question for Amb is can Vince or AI win with Pau as their beta I argue No. I also don't think the irreplaceable Pau could lead the Admiral and Avery to a title ... These type of replacement exercises are stat heads and loser type reasoning. The game is more than that I could argue place prime Kobe with Scottie, Horace and Phil and maybe they still win 6 titles in Chicago but as good as Kobe is and as much as he replicated his game he is not MJ ...maybe they only win 4 ...but again who cares?! MJ did it not Kobe. Rings alone, stats alone can't tell a whole story.

[Killakobe81]

That's why I listed those players. Please tell me which from that list of people would replace Parker in 2007, and the Spurs would not have won the title?
There are some arguable ones for sure, but I am pretty confident that the Parker replaceable list is certainly a lot longer than the Pau replaceable list.

Of course, Amb we have a dearth of quality bigs so that is. Pretty obvious, but yet in 2007 it was Parker, not any of the other players who torched a good Cavs defense.

[Killakobe81]

And even though diminished Duncan still had a hof center and future hof SG in 2005

[ambchang]

Of course, Amb we have a dearth of quality bigs so that is. Pretty obvious, but yet in 2007 it was Parker, not any of the other players who torched a good Cavs defense.

Which of course, is why the Lakers won those championships and made the finals another one time, it's because of their incredibly versatile front line that is heads and shoulders above anybody else in the league. The Spurs had to go through backcourts that were equally, or nearly, as strong as theirs. Parker benefitted from facing off against Boobie Gibson and Mo Williams, which was the right way to play, but the Spurs had to go through tough backcourts that are just as good as theirs to make the Finals in the first place.

The Lakers didn't have to go through any front courts that were close to as good as theirs, because there simply wasn't any.


And even though diminished Duncan still had a hof center and future hof SG in 2005

Manu was dynamite in 05, but are you trying to tell me Nazr was HOF material? Or did you mean Horry? I am not buying either.

BTW, HoF name doesn't mean too much so as long as they are not playing in/close to their primes.

[spurraider21]

That's why I listed those players. Please tell me which from that list of people would replace Parker in 2007, and the Spurs would not have won the title?
There are some arguable ones for sure, but I am pretty confident that the Parker replaceable list is certainly a lot longer than the Pau replaceable list.

I'm not arguing with your conclusion. But the reason people are getting on your case is because you are just spitting out win share figures as an and-all-be-all level of analysis

[ambchang]

I'm not arguing with your conclusion. But the reason people are getting on your case is because you are just spitting out win share figures as an and-all-be-all level of analysis

Nothing is be all and end all, but it is a very reflective stat.

For example, every single leader of a championship team has led his team in WS in the last 25 years.
For example, the 20 players with the top WS seasons since 1976 (post ABA), listed in descending order, are:
1. Jordan
2. Lebron
3. David Robinson
4. Kevin Durant
5. Shaq
6. Garnett
7. CP3
8. KAJ
9. Duncan
10. Dirk
11. Barkley
12. Malone
13. Magic
14. T-Mac
15. Bird
16. Hakeem
17. Stockton
18. Billups
19. Moses
20. Kobe

[spurraider21]

Nothing is be all and end all, but it is a very reflective stat.

For example, every single leader of a championship team has led his team in WS in the last 25 years.
For example, the 20 players with the top WS seasons since 1976 (post ABA), listed in descending order, are:
1. Jordan
2. Lebron
3. David Robinson
4. Kevin Durant
5. Shaq
6. Garnett
7. CP3
8. KAJ
9. Duncan
10. Dirk
11. Barkley
12. Malone
13. Magic
14. T-Mac
15. Bird
16. Hakeem
17. Stockton
18. Billups
19. Moses
20. Kobe
its hard for me to believe that chauncey in his best year was responsible for more wins than kobe in his best year

[ambchang]

its hard for me to believe that chauncey in his best year was responsible for more wins than kobe in his best year

Chauncey was very good with the Pistons with both Brown and Saunders. The reason he was so good was because he was pretty much the only playmaker on the Pistons (Rasheed could have been, but just decided to take a back seat his entire career for reasons unknown). When Chauncey wasn't on the floor, the entire Pistons offense runs to a stand still. Regardless, it was really a flash in the pan couple of seasons for Chauncey, and once he was removed from that environment, he was proven to be good, but not great.

[Killakobe81]

Nothing is be all and end all, but it is a very reflective stat.

For example, every single leader of a championship team has led his team in WS in the last 25 years.
For example, the 20 players with the top WS seasons since 1976 (post ABA), listed in descending order, are:
1. Jordan
2. Lebron
3. David Robinson
4. Kevin Durant
5. Shaq
6. Garnett
7. CP3
8. KAJ
9. Duncan
10. Dirk
11. Barkley
12. Malone
13. Magic
14. T-Mac
15. Bird
16. Hakeem
17. Stockton
18. Billups
19. Moses
20. Kobe

If you can't see the fault in a list that places David (who I like) 3rd over Kareem, Duncan, Magic and Bird well I will never debate hoops with you again. Winshares ...lmao.

[TDMVPDPOY]

WS

remove the one man teams....

[ambchang]

If you can't see the fault in a list that places David (who I like) 3rd over Kareem, Duncan, Magic and Bird well I will never debate hoops with you again. Winshares ...lmao.

David Robinson is pretty much a casualty of his own success. If he actually sucked in his prime a little more, management would have been under more pressure to bring in some decent help outside of Vinny Del Negro and Avery Johnson. Do I think Robinson > KAJ, Duncan, Magic and Bird, absolutely not. Could he have been? Yes, with the right team, he could be very successful. Put him on a team in place of Dirk Nowitzki on the 06 to 11 Mavs, the Mavs would have won at least 1 championship, perhaps two.

As for Magic and Bird, the game admittedly, is different back in the 80s. Talent was way more concentrated on a few teams, and a team can only win so many games, so the WS are split between the players. When a Bird or Magic is not on the floor on their respective teams, they don't suffer as much, because there are the Worthys, McHales, Parishes and KAJs to keep the game close.

KAJ on the other hand, had his prime prior to 77. As much as Laker fans like to say he was the best Laker ever, his prime years were with the Bucks.

[Killakobe81]

David Robinson is pretty much a casualty of his own success. If he actually sucked in his prime a little more, management would have been under more pressure to bring in some decent help outside of Vinny Del Negro and Avery Johnson. Do I think Robinson > KAJ, Duncan, Magic and Bird, absolutely not. Could he have been? Yes, with the right team, he could be very successful. Put him on a team in place of Dirk Nowitzki on the 06 to 11 Mavs, the Mavs would have won at least 1 championship, perhaps two.

As for Magic and Bird, the game admittedly, is different back in the 80s. Talent was way more concentrated on a few teams, and a team can only win so many games, so the WS are split between the players. When a Bird or Magic is not on the floor on their respective teams, they don't suffer as much, because there are the Worthys, McHales, Parishes and KAJs to keep the game close.

KAJ on the other hand, had his prime prior to 77. As much as Laker fans like to say he was the best Laker ever, his prime years were with the Bucks.

agree with most if what you said but win shares are helpful in determining MVP awards but can not replace watching the game. Magic and Bird had great teammates but the titles didnt flow until they arrived ...for those 80's teams ... Neither were great defenders but both were so smart they were great help defenders and extremely clutch rebounders. In fact if a key board was needed I would want Bird and Magic securing over McHale, Parish, Kareem, Green or Rambis. And yes I missed Kareem's prime.

[ambchang]

agree with most if what you said but win shares are helpful in determining MVP awards but can not replace watching the game. Magic and Bird had great teammates but the titles didnt flow until they arrived ...for those 80's teams ... Neither were great defenders but both were so smart they were great help defenders and extremely clutch rebounders. In fact if a key board was needed I would want Bird and Magic securing over McHale, Parish, Kareem, Green or Rambis. And yes I missed Kareem's prime.

Watching the game is always the best, ws is merely a statistical way of explaining certain things other than "I think he is better".

As for bird and magic, both had stronger teams as their career progressed. Mchale and parish after birds rookie year. So did Dennis Johnson. Scott and worthy joined after magic. Sure magic won in his rookie year, but no way would the lakers have been such a dynasty without them.

[Deuce Bigalow]

Since June 17, 2010 Spurfan has still not accepted the fact that Kobe 5 > Duncan 4. But don't worry, it will come one day.

http://motivationalhierarchy.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/grief-model-7.png

[ambchang]

Since 2004, Kobe fans still haven't accepted Kobe is a second banana.

:lol Kobe clutch :lol

[Killakobe81]

Duncan was very clutch in these past Finals ...Duncan played well but failed to finish MJ, Magic and Bird all had unclutch moments ...it happens.

[AchillesHeel]

Duncan was very clutch in these past Finals ...Duncan played well but failed to finish MJ, Magic and Bird all had unclutch moments ...it happens.

Thank you.