Extending Mohammed

[Marcus Bryant]

I think it's time to flesh out just what kind of extension the Spurs can offer Mohammed, since that's often thrown around in the forum as a possibility this offseason.

First, some background:

From the CBA FAQ (http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm):



http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#49

49. Can existing contracts be extended?

A six or seven year contract can be extended when at least four years have passed since the signing of the contract. A four or five year contract can be extended when at least three years have passed since the signing of the contract. Contracts for fewer than four seasons may not be extended. A contract which has already been extended can be extended again after three years.

A rookie scale contract for a first round draft pick (see question number 38) may be extended from August 1 to October 31 of the player's fourth (option) season, provided the team had previously picked up the option for that season. Rookie scale contracts may be extended for up to six seasons beyond the player's fourth (option) season, bringing the total contract length to seven seasons. All other extensions are limited to six seasons minus the seasons remaining on the current contract. For example, a contract with two seasons remaining may be extended for up to four additional seasons.

The salary in the first year of an extension to a rookie scale contract may be any amount up to the player's maximum. For all other extensions, the salary in the first year of the extension is limited to 112.5% of the salary in the last year of the existing contract. However, it also can't exceed the maximum salary the player can receive if he were to sign a new contract that year as a free agent (see question numbers 9 and 10).

This poses an interesting problem -- if an extension takes effect three years from now, how do they set the salary if the maximum salary (and therefore the maximum amount for the extension) won't be known for three years? What they do is write the extension for the maximum 12.5% (assuming the team agrees to give the player that much). Then when the extension takes effect, and the maximum salary for that season is known, the extension salary is amended if necessary.

An example is in order. Shaquille O'Neal's contract was extended prior to the 2000-01 season. His original contract ran through the 02-03 season, in which he made $23,571,429.20. The first year of his extension, 03-04, was originally written for 112.5% of this amount, or $26,517,857.85. As a 10+ year veteran, O'Neal's salary can't exceed 105% of $23,571,429.20, or the 03-04 maximum salary for a 10+ year veteran (which turned out to be $15,344,000), whichever is greater. That means O'Neal's 03-04 salary could not exceed 105% of $23,571,429.20, or $24,750,000.66 (using 105% of his previous salary, since that is the greater of the two). O'Neal's extension was therefore amended downward to the maximum ($24,750,000.66) once the 03-04 maximum salary was determined.

Raises in each year of an extension are limited to 12.5% of the salary in the last year of the existing contract. For example, since O'Neal will earn $23,571,429.20 in 02-03, he can receive a raise of $2,946,428.65 in each year of the extension. If the salary in the first year of the extension is amended downward as described above, then the salary in the remaining years of the extension are amended at the same time, if necessary.

Current player contract info can be found here. (http://www.nationwide.net/~patricia/)

So, Mohammed can receive a 5 year extension offer from the Spurs. It can start at up to 112.5% of his 2005-06 salary ($5.5 million) which would be $6.1875 million. Assuming 10% annual raises per the terms of the new CBA, the maximum total nominal value of the extension offer would be $37.125 million.

The annual salary by season would be:

2006-07: $6.1875 mil
2007-08: $6.8063 mil
2008-09: $7.4250 mil
2009-10: $8.0437 mil
2010-11: $8.6625 mil

Hmmm...I think Nazr could do a lot better in free agency next summer.

-MB

[ducks]

is this the new cba rules or the old one
I know the raises are the new cba

[Marcus Bryant]

is this the new cba rules or the old one

I do not recall any feature of the new CBA that marks a radical departure from the old with regards to contract extensions, other than the reduction in the maximum possible annual raises. I assumed that the new maximum of 10% annual raises will be in effect for contract extensions.

[ducks]

ok I just that I would clear that up so people would not get confused


who has money next year?

[ducks]

will the bobcats have the the full salary cap after this next season

I think they will

if they do they will have money
but they may want to see if they would get someone better then him

[Marcus Bryant]

I'm not sure about the Bobcats. At least the Spurs would have his full Bird rights, but he'd be an unrestricted free agent.

[ducks]

looking at the amount he would make
I would think trading rasho and scola for what lj said would be well
they also would take LESS SALARY BACK AND HAVE MORE MONEY NEXT YEAR
yes I know spurs do not have to worry about it because they have bird rights but it still cost money

[Marcus Bryant]

Sure, ducks. But you have to get Mohammed to sign.

[ducks]

nazr was glad he went to sa
also pop started him during the postseason and get lots of playing time

[Marcus Bryant]

I don't think that's worth $20 or 30 mil.

[bigzak25]

i expect him to be gone. i'll just say i'd be very suprised if he settled for less than he can get elsewhere, which is what he'll have to do.

i would think the spurs will keep him for next years playoff run and then let him walk though. rasho will have been unloaded by this time and the spot for scola is now clear. :tu

[ducks]

so spurs will not trade scola?

[ducks]

mb do you think he will command 66 million the same as tp next year

[Marcus Bryant]

Dampier got $73 mil.

[ducks]

cuban also is an idiot the spurs are not

[clubalien]

It is possible that team would offer mroe per year then tony got also remeber some teams were offering tony the max

[Marcus Bryant]

cuban also is an idiot the spurs are not

There are other idiots in the league.

[waly.mg]

Nazr now can be more than Rasho, but not more than Rasho when he was signed

So a Nazr contract can be a 6 years - 40 million contract

When Dampier was signed by Dallas, he was one of the best rebounders of the league

[waly.mg]

Probably Buford next year have 2 players to choice, Nazr and Scola

[Marcus Bryant]

I like Mohammed, but I'm not sure the Spurs like Mohammed for seventy million dollars.

[waly.mg]

There are other idiots in the league.


I am not going to accept that they treat of that way to Isiah Thomas

[bigzak25]

I like Mohammed, but I'm not sure the Spurs like Mohammed for seventy million dollars.


your hitting the nail on the head buddy. watching that dvd made me remember just how valuable naz was to the Spurs playoff run...sure he dissappeared at times in the piston series, but he showed up for those first two games and in the other rounds. I'm hoping oberto is as advertised in the defense/rebounding dept and that he has a nasty streak and will dunk the damn rock when the opportunity presents...hence, a cheaper option than nazr.

thinking of how holt had to be convinced to give tp an extra 2 mil and how much nazr will want tells us all we need to know.

[TheTruth]

I think it's time to flesh out just what kind of extension the Spurs can offer Mohammed, since that's often thrown around in the forum as a possibility this offseason.

The annual salary by season would be:

2006-07: $6.1875 mil
2007-08: $6.8063 mil
2008-09: $7.4250 mil
2009-10: $8.0437 mil
2010-11: $8.6625 mil

Hmmm...I think Nazr could do a lot better in free agency next summer.

-MB
Nice. If the Spurs offered him that, I think he would take it. Things will be very comfortable next to Timmy for the next 5 years, and that coupled with a title contender should be hard to turn down. Hopefully

[SWC Bonfire]

I would think that Nazr could get considerably more elsewhere. He already has one ring, he may want to make some green.

[Marcus Bryant]

I think Nazr can get considerably more than 5 years and $37 mil next summer. If Erick Dampier can get $73 mil in this league...

[BigDiggyD]

Its always hard to speculate on the personality end of negotiations but Nazr has been in the league for 7 seasons and 4 teams counting the Spurs some which are definately question marks on how they are run. Our best bet is just like with other players their heart is now in SA and they are willing to take a reduced price to stay. Ginobili did it, Parker did it, Horry did it, Bowen did it, and then Barry took less to come here, I believe Rasho signed for less to come here than other offers he received, Glenn Robinson implies he might do it.... They are all drinking the Kool-Aid

[WalterBenitez]

I think Nazr can get considerably more than 5 years and $37 mil next summer. If Erick Dampier can get $73 mil in this league...

I agree, but I doubt it under RC Management

[Marcus Bryant]

Its always hard to speculate on the personality end of negotiations but Nazr has been in the league for 7 seasons and 4 teams counting the Spurs some which are definately question marks on how they are run. Our best bet is just like with other players their heart is now in SA and they are willing to take a reduced price to stay. Ginobili did it, Parker did it, Horry did it, Bowen did it, and then Barry took less to come here, I believe Rasho signed for less to come here than other offers he received, Glenn Robinson implies he might do it.... They are all drinking the Kool-Aid


Yeah, but I don't see him giving up half of what he could get elsewhere.

[clubalien]

spurs don't pay people they didn't even want to play david , but were forc4ed too

this is what spurs want to do

dump rasho to clear his salary
then play nazr let his contract expire then say we wanted to sign him but he demanded to much(DA, SJax)
then they will have their CHEAP starting center in oberto OH BOY
and then pick up some back up scrumb

insted they could trade nazr for a good SF keep rasho as a good back up incase tim or horry gets injuried

or they could trade rasho(dump salry) so they can pay nazr what he is worth to have a good back up for oberto OH BOY

but the spurs will let rasho and nazr to good big men go because god forbid they aren't as cheap as oberto OH BOY

[FuzzyLumpkins]

You have to look past dampier. that contract was an albatross from the time it was signed. it also took a sign and trade to make it work.

jerome james is making $6 mil per season and curry very well might make less.

i guess if the bulls lost curry then they could go after nazr and have the coffers to do it as could washington.

I am beginning to get the impression that teams are learning from thei mistakes of the blazers, nets, knicks and mavericks similar to the fashion in which NFL teams learned from gross overspending in their salary cap world.

[Marcus Bryant]

James got 5 years and $30 mil, I believe. Surely Mohammed is worth much more.

[timvp]

Mohammed is going to have a pretty damn good year if he's the starting center. Playing next to Tim, I can see him average something like 11 and 8. If he does that, the going rate for a center that can put up those numbers STARTS at $50M.

I doubt the Spurs would break the bank for Nazr. Paying Nazr Manu money is something the Spurs won't do.

Knowing the Spurs, they're hoping they can start Oberto this season and bring Nazr off the bench. Then when Nazr doesn't have huge numbers they'll be able to re-sign him, and then have two quality NBA centers. It's kinda what they did with Manu and Hedo.

:smokin

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Mohammed is going to have a pretty damn good year if he's the starting center. Playing next to Tim, I can see him average something like 11 and 8. If he does that, the going rate for a center that can put up those numbers STARTS at $50M.

I doubt the Spurs would break the bank for Nazr. Paying Nazr Manu money is something the Spurs won't do.

Knowing the Spurs, they're hoping they can start Oberto this season and bring Nazr off the bench. Then when Nazr doesn't have huge numbers they'll be able to re-sign him, and then have two quality NBA centers. It's kinda what they did with Manu and Hedo.

:smokin

i assume you are basing this on the deals that Ratliff, Dampier and Lafrentz got.

Well see but i wonder how many of the smaller markets that are left without these albatrosses are going to be willing to spend 10 mil a season

[Marcus Bryant]

Yeah, Nazr doesn't exactly have a lock on being a starter. I didn't realize how limited a potential extension offer would be until I ran the #s. I thought if the Spurs put something in the high 40s on the table that it might make Nazr think long and hard about it.

Also, if Oberto can do the job for $2 mil a season it's hard to beat that.

[timvp]

Yeah, Nazr doesn't exactly have a lock on being a starter. I didn't realize how limited a potential extension offer would be until I ran the #s.

People were talking about locking up Mohammed this summer. Offering that contract, it isn't going to happen.

Only way that happens is if Mohammed takes one for the team. Perhaps the Spurs can bring up past injuries and the lucky spot he finds himself in. Probably won't work but who knows.

[Marcus Bryant]

This is Nazr's last chance to get a large long term guaranteed contract in the league. The one that ends next season was for $25 mil over 5 seasons. It's not unreasonable to think that he could get $60 mil next summer. Yeah, the injury card would be the thing to play on him.

[JUUOT]

i think being realistic.. people like nazr and the background they have are able to make reasonable decision and undertsand the value of money but also other important thing. nearly 40 million$ on 5 years should be enough to feed hid family for a long long time.

[Marcus Bryant]

But why take $37 mil today when you could reasonably get $60 mil in a year? That's twenty-three million dollars, for example. I'd wait a year for that and go wherever.

[Guru of Nothing]

I like Mohammed, but I'm not sure the Spurs like Mohammed for seventy million dollars.

I paused reading the thread here.

HELL NO to Nazr at 70M.

I vote for riding Nazr one more year, hopefully winning another title, and then figuring it out.

There's nothing wrong with winning a 4th title before making a decision.

[JUUOT]

ok after a good night.i have a fresher view.

- nazr can not be extended this summer.
- so rasho will not go this summer
- they look for veteran Big to complete the frontline

I agree with timvp, they will give opportunity to Oberto for him to deveolp and adapt fast. this way you have your 2 centers nazr and oberto.

- once Oberto took the job, they can trade rasho like malik last year for promising long SF and a big

Then they sign nazr for 45$M 5 year (55 6 years?)
The SF get from rasho. get more playinng time the next year sharing with bowen.

the signs and reason:
since nazr can not be signed there is no way to deal rasho unless you get a legitimate 3th/4th big in return. it is hard to shop a long SF this summer cause he will have really limited minutes behind bowen. but if he joins late in the season he will learn the system and get ready for the next season when he can get more time.
This could be the reason why spurs are looking at Small wings and not long wing during the summer.

if some stuff did not make sense point it out. thoughts are rough

[waly.mg]

This is Nazr's last chance to get a large long term guaranteed contract in the league. The one that ends next season was for $25 mil over 5 seasons. It's not unreasonable to think that he could get $60 mil next summer. Yeah, the injury card would be the thing to play on him.

Ok, but Pop and Buford are Old Foxs, and they can place Nazr in the bench only for a small contract

Last year, Pop moves Manu to the bench because a bench player is cheaper and POP Know that

[Mark in Austin]

I just did some quick research and came up with the following:

Looking ahead to next summer and barring a trade for an expiring contract that brings another team far enough under the cap to offer a contract, there will be up to nine teams that could offer Nazr more money next summer than the Spurs can offer in an extension this summer.

They are:

Houston: IF Yao bolts to LA, they could be 10-12 million under the cap.

New Orleans: Magliore would be in the last year of his deal; if they don't want to re-sign him they'll need a starting center and will have a crapload of cash - about 20 million - under the cap. Given how things are going in New Orleans though, there might not even be a team by next summer.

Denver: Could be 10 million under the cap. They already have Camby and Martin, but might be players if Camby is injured again. I think they'll focus on the 2 first even if they pick up Finley this offseason after Dallas waives him for tax amnesty.

Minny: Could be 8-10 million under the cap depending on what they do with Cassell and Sprewell. (Does anybody honestly think they'll be back though?) They'll need a starting center; but unless McCants really takes off they'll probably be looking for backcourt help first.

Seattle: Could have about 10 million in capspace depending on what happens the rest of their summer and whose options they pick up next summer. Need a center badly. Would Schultz pay big money?

Atlanta: If they get Curry this summer, they probably wouldn't be too interested. If they pass on Curry or Chicago matches the offer, they'll have well over thirty million in capspace to throw around. Would they bring back Nazr for a second tour? After playing for a winning and popular club would Nazr want to go to the worst team in one of the worst sports towns in the league? Usually, money trumps issues like this, but Atlanta is in such shitty shape right now even a non-homer can see how that might come into play.

Charlotte: Will have plenty of caproom that they've been very patient about spending - is next summer the summer they decide to go "all in"? They could realistically offer two players max contracts and still have enough left over to sign Nazr to a larger deal than what the Spurs can offer in an extension this summer.

LA Clippers: Could have 10 million under the cap, but Sterling historically has only paid or offered big money for better players (Brand, Kobe, etc). Odds are he'll continue to depend on the draft for his center. He is spending 20 million on a practice pacility this summer though, so I guess anything is possible.

Chicago: The Bulls could be the biggest threat. If things go as expected this summer (sign Chandler, let Curry walk), they could be 25 million under the cap next summer. :wow Of course, they'll have to carefully weigh that against the long-term costs of retaining Heinrich, Gordon, Nocioni, Deng, and Duhon. But none of those guys are centers, and neither is Chandler, really. Would be would a Chandler-Mohammed frontcourt have enough offensive punch? Possibly. Chicago can make the most compelling pitch: Come join a young, talented, hungry, and still improving playoff team with great fan support in one of the best cities in the country - your home town - and we'll pay you plenty of $$$.
__________________________________________________ _____

After surveying what the landscape will probably look like next summer, I would be very, very surprised if Nazr signs an extension this year. San Antonio might still be his first choice; but the only way to get more than 37 million and change from the Spurs will be to wait, sign an offer sheet with somebody else, and see if the Spurs match.

The question becomes what is the Spurs upper limit? Basically taking Rasho's salary slot and extending it by one year would give you a five year deal at about 40 million. Not much more than the extension this summer would be. It probably boils down to how the Spurs' overseas talent is developing/playing:

If Mahinmi continues to develop as they hope he does, if Karulov starts to blossom, or if Javtokas' recovery doesn't plateau but contines to progress the Spurs might pass on Mohammed and focus a big contract on a Bowen replacement since they could sign their overseas bigmen to a much cheaper deal. On the other hand, if Sanikidze develops into a better NBA talent than any of the bigs, then perhaps they spend the money on Nazr.

What we know for sure is that Holt has been quoted in the past as not being willing to cross into luxury tax territory. While the new CBA might soften his stance somewhat, realistically I don't see the Spurs going much past it.

With current committments, team payroll over the next three years will be between 60 and 62 million. (This assumes Parker's salary over the first three years of his 6 yr. 66 million extension will pay $8.5M, 9.5M, 10.5M; that Oberto's deal is 2.5M, 2.5M, 2.5M; and that Horry's deal is 5M, 5.5M, 6M. AND that's before using any more of the MLE, the LLE, or re-signing Devin.

I think the most likely scenario will be that the Spurs trade Rasho for a young swingman still in a rookie deal - Childress comes to mind - and spend this year deciding:

A) if they want to extend Childress / go after another swing player for a long term deal and count on inexpensive help up front, or

B) Extend Nazr and count on inexpensive help on the perimeter.

I just don't see the Spurs payroll going much past $60 million.

[timvp]

Awesome post, MIA. I have to agree with everything you said.

Trading Rasho now and going into next summer with Nazr a free agent is very risky. A team could easily throw huge money at him, especially if he's coming off of a good year. If the Spurs let him walk, they'd suddenly lack a lot of size on the roster.

If the the Spurs trade Rasho this summer and Nazr isn't extended, the only way he stays a Spur is if the Spurs go with Oberto as the starter. That would limit Nazr's production and allow the Spurs to re-sign him. But for that to workout, Oberto is going to have to come up big and prove that he's capable of guarding NBA quality players.

[clubalien]

basicly we traded away rasho and nazr for oberto OH bOY as are starting center
and then signed mark madsen, outlaw, D, or someone as our back up center

other then money i don't see why spurs want to down grade our back up center possition

[Mark in Austin]

Thanks timvp. I really didn't realize how much salary had already been amassed until I started adding everything up for that post. Much as I hate to say it, I think the choice comes down to one of:

Rasho, Nazr, or future $40 million perimeter player; not two out of three like a lot of people have been assuming. The Spurs have already moved into the top 10 highest salaried teams for next year - they're not going to go very much higher.

[BigDiggyD]

Good stuff Mark.. I am a little suprised by the contract #'s you quoted for Horry. Do you have a source? I had heard Dallas had offered 3 years 9 million and that offer was more than what the Spurs signed him for.

I know this forum has had many Nazr vs Rasho discussions in the past prior to my arrival and I wont start another one by going into my reasons why based on on-the-court performance, but I wonder if we should keep Rasho and move Nazr for financial reasons. We have Rasho signed until '08 and looking at the money these historically subpar bigs are getting in the NBA it doesn't look like the albatross it has looked like to some before. Perhaps the fact that Nazr is a FA next year might be appealing to a team looking to clear cap space to make a run at next years FA's. Also a sign-n-trade might be an option.

[clubalien]

what I think the spurs need at the 3 is a sean elliot
but I just don't see how you can get that kind of player
for one he was a #3 pick so we need to trade a big for a top first rounder btu that is still up to is there anyone in the draft that can perform
sean elliot i think is a rare find

who in the current NBA fits his mold?
someone that has O and plays D is ron artest I think he woudl be a good pickup just don't see how the spurs can pick him up

[Mark in Austin]

I pulled Horry's numbers from the Spurs re-sign Horry thread found Here. (http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21067&page=2&pp=26&highlight=Horry) I used Kori's estimate for Horry's salary; it made the most sense to me.

[Duff McCartney]

I think Nazr can get considerably more than 5 years and $37 mil next summer. If Erick Dampier can get $73 mil in this league...

But you also had two stupid ass GMs/Owners vying for his services. Cuban and Thomas.

Those idiots would pay 50 bucks for a shit sandwich.

Dampier is flat out robbing the Mavs. He did what he had to do and now he's out...like the rest of his career.

[Mr. Body]

Dampier is flat out robbing the Mavs. He did what he had to do and now he's out...like the rest of his career.

He'll be better than average, which is what he was last year.

Lesson, league GMs: NEVER OVERPAY A PLAYER WHO PRODUCED IN A CONTRACT YEAR.

[Chris]

Ride the Nazr train for another year and let him go. By that time we will have an adjusted Oberto and possibly Mahini.

[beirmeistr]

Has anybody noticed that Mohammed resembles a young Robert Parish?

[Bruno]

Dampier contract is over 7 years.
It's 10M$/year for a 12/12 man.
Nazr will probably not get this in free agency next summer.
Gadzuric (1/8 man) get 36M$ over 6 years, Nazr best offer could be something like 45M$ over 5 years.
So if the spurs made an offer of 37M$ this summer, he should accept it.
What do you prefer :
- Having your last big contract now with one of the best nba team ?
- Hoping a great season knowing oberto is coming and you have had some injuries in the past to get 10 M$ more with maybe a bad team ?

37M$ sure is better than 45M$ maybe. All this, is asuming the new CBA allows a 37M$ extension

[Bruno]

In the new CBA the anual raise is 10.5% and the contract will start at 110.5% of 2005-2006 salary.
So if the maximun length is still the same, Nazr will get :
2006-2007 : 6.08 M$
2007-2008 : 6.72 M$
2008-2009 : 7.35 M$
2009-2010 : 7.99 M$
2010-2011 : 8.63 M$

36.77 M$ extension