ambchang
10-07-2013, 12:44 PM
The basketball-reference.com website started compiling FGA and FTA information for a team basis since the 1985-86 season, and I decided to look into the FTA of each team over the span of almost 30 years to look for any anomalies.
First off, there were a total of 4,278 playoff games during this span, with 339,754 FGA and 116,507 FTA. I decided to combine the statistics of NJN and BKN (same organization), Charlotte Hornets and New Orleans Hornets (same ownership until recently), and Washington Bullets and Wizards (name change due to concerns about inner city crimes). I left the Sonics and Thunder separate as they were under different ownership and different names.
The first cut, obviously, is to look into the team with the highest FTA/FGA ratio, and shockingly, Portland actually came up top. The problem though is that they also finished high on the opponents FTA/FGA ratio and ranked 3rd in that metric, so it only speaks to the playing style of each team. The only team that finished top 5 in FTA/FGA, but bottom 5 on opponents FTA/FGA was Cleveland, finishing #5 and #29 respectively. I noticed that of the 30 games that had a 10+ FTA that Cleveland played in, 13 of them came from the Kang era, another 13 came during the Price/Daugherty/Nance era, and the remaining came during the Fratello era where the name of the game is to slow the game down to the crawl. I had a good laugh at it in terms of how the Kang was getting some home cooking, but still, it's on the same level as Mark Price, so I didn't put too much thought into it.
But from a franchise perspective, having FTA in one game can easily be neglected by having a deficit in another, so they cancel each other out in the long run. My next cut is to look at how many times a franchise appeared in the top 1% of FTA differential games (top 43 games). Of those 53 games, only six teams appeared more 3 or more times on the list. The teams were:
Lakers - 8
Miami - 4
Spurs - 4
Chicago - 3
Portland - 3
Utah - 3
Not surprisingly, with the exception of Miami, all of them had been playoff staple teams since 1985. It's simply a matter of playing more games, therefore appearing more on this list. This proved to be somewhat true. You would imagine a team would have 1% of all their playoff games played to appear in the top 1% of FTA differential games, only makes sense. So I looked into the expected # of games for each of these teams, and the results are as follows:
Lakers - 3.49
Miami - 1.85
Spurs - 2.78
Chicago - 2.53
Portland - 1.57
Utah - 2.2
Utah and Chicago are pretty much in line, and it's more due to rounding errors than anything. The Spurs are on the cusp, with Spurs appearing 44% more than likely. The remaining ones were more difficult to explain away, Portland was 91% more likely, Miami 116% more likely, and LA 129% more likely.
Looking at the 3 Portland games, two of them actually came against the Spurs in 1990, the series in which the Blazers won in a very competitive 6 games. The remaining game came against Dallas in 2003, which is only one game. The Blazers won in all three games by double digits, but no where close to the difference in FTA.
For Miami, one game came against Philly in 2011 featuring the Kang. The Heat won by 8 points in that game, but again, one game does not a pattern make. Another game came in 1997 in the Mourning/Hardaway era vs. the Knicks. The Heat won by 11 points but had an astounding 29 more FTs, this despite shooting less than the Knicks (more FTs takes away from FGA), and a few more 3 pters, which are traditionally do not lead to FTs. The remaining two games were during the Wade era, in the same championship team. One against Detroit where the Heat shot an almost unimaginable 47 FTA vs only 22 for the Pistons, but the other was the infamous game vs. the Mavs in which the Heat shot 49 FTAs vs. only 25 for the Mavs, winning by one single point in OT.
The final team we should look at is the Lakers. With 8 games, the Lakers is the team with by far the most appearances in the top 1% of games. They are also 129% over expected value, which is also the highest of the 31 franchises we looked at. 4 of the 8 games came at the end of the 80s during the Magic/Kareem era. 1 came during the NVE days, and the remaining 3 came during the Kobe days. Shockingly, Game 7 vs. Boston(+20 FTA), Game 6 vs. Kings (+15 FTA), or Game 7 vs. Blazers(+21 FTA) didn’t make the list. Those were merely the most memorable ones due to the significance of an elimination game and the close final margins.
Not surprisingly, all 15 games we looked at resulted in a W for the team with more FTs.
First off, there were a total of 4,278 playoff games during this span, with 339,754 FGA and 116,507 FTA. I decided to combine the statistics of NJN and BKN (same organization), Charlotte Hornets and New Orleans Hornets (same ownership until recently), and Washington Bullets and Wizards (name change due to concerns about inner city crimes). I left the Sonics and Thunder separate as they were under different ownership and different names.
The first cut, obviously, is to look into the team with the highest FTA/FGA ratio, and shockingly, Portland actually came up top. The problem though is that they also finished high on the opponents FTA/FGA ratio and ranked 3rd in that metric, so it only speaks to the playing style of each team. The only team that finished top 5 in FTA/FGA, but bottom 5 on opponents FTA/FGA was Cleveland, finishing #5 and #29 respectively. I noticed that of the 30 games that had a 10+ FTA that Cleveland played in, 13 of them came from the Kang era, another 13 came during the Price/Daugherty/Nance era, and the remaining came during the Fratello era where the name of the game is to slow the game down to the crawl. I had a good laugh at it in terms of how the Kang was getting some home cooking, but still, it's on the same level as Mark Price, so I didn't put too much thought into it.
But from a franchise perspective, having FTA in one game can easily be neglected by having a deficit in another, so they cancel each other out in the long run. My next cut is to look at how many times a franchise appeared in the top 1% of FTA differential games (top 43 games). Of those 53 games, only six teams appeared more 3 or more times on the list. The teams were:
Lakers - 8
Miami - 4
Spurs - 4
Chicago - 3
Portland - 3
Utah - 3
Not surprisingly, with the exception of Miami, all of them had been playoff staple teams since 1985. It's simply a matter of playing more games, therefore appearing more on this list. This proved to be somewhat true. You would imagine a team would have 1% of all their playoff games played to appear in the top 1% of FTA differential games, only makes sense. So I looked into the expected # of games for each of these teams, and the results are as follows:
Lakers - 3.49
Miami - 1.85
Spurs - 2.78
Chicago - 2.53
Portland - 1.57
Utah - 2.2
Utah and Chicago are pretty much in line, and it's more due to rounding errors than anything. The Spurs are on the cusp, with Spurs appearing 44% more than likely. The remaining ones were more difficult to explain away, Portland was 91% more likely, Miami 116% more likely, and LA 129% more likely.
Looking at the 3 Portland games, two of them actually came against the Spurs in 1990, the series in which the Blazers won in a very competitive 6 games. The remaining game came against Dallas in 2003, which is only one game. The Blazers won in all three games by double digits, but no where close to the difference in FTA.
For Miami, one game came against Philly in 2011 featuring the Kang. The Heat won by 8 points in that game, but again, one game does not a pattern make. Another game came in 1997 in the Mourning/Hardaway era vs. the Knicks. The Heat won by 11 points but had an astounding 29 more FTs, this despite shooting less than the Knicks (more FTs takes away from FGA), and a few more 3 pters, which are traditionally do not lead to FTs. The remaining two games were during the Wade era, in the same championship team. One against Detroit where the Heat shot an almost unimaginable 47 FTA vs only 22 for the Pistons, but the other was the infamous game vs. the Mavs in which the Heat shot 49 FTAs vs. only 25 for the Mavs, winning by one single point in OT.
The final team we should look at is the Lakers. With 8 games, the Lakers is the team with by far the most appearances in the top 1% of games. They are also 129% over expected value, which is also the highest of the 31 franchises we looked at. 4 of the 8 games came at the end of the 80s during the Magic/Kareem era. 1 came during the NVE days, and the remaining 3 came during the Kobe days. Shockingly, Game 7 vs. Boston(+20 FTA), Game 6 vs. Kings (+15 FTA), or Game 7 vs. Blazers(+21 FTA) didn’t make the list. Those were merely the most memorable ones due to the significance of an elimination game and the close final margins.
Not surprisingly, all 15 games we looked at resulted in a W for the team with more FTs.