Zach Lowe telling it how it really is

[AchillesHeel]

There is just too much that you have to talk yourself into here. Maybe Kobe Bryant will come back sooner, and stronger, than expected! This is the year for Wesley Johnson, baby! Nick Young totally "gets it" now, and he's back in L.A., and that makes him a happy young man! Chris Kaman has a beard, and he's sort of pudgy, and he likes to hunt, and maybe he and Pau Gasol can function nicely together! Steve Nash keeps himself in great shape; he's going to stay healthy! Xavier Henry is killing it in preseason!

Some of that stuff is real. Kaman and Gasol should be able to play well together on offense; Kaman has improved as a passer, even if he still shoots waaaayyyyy too much. Gasol is a genius with the ball. Nash does keep himself in great shape. Kobe is a maniac, in the best way possible. Preseason production can carry over in meaningful ways for individual players.

But this team was a disaster defensively whenever Howard hit the bench last season, and they've replaced Howard with precisely zero plus defenders. Kobe is already well in decline as a defender, and we've no clue when he's coming back, or how he'll look after one of the most devastating injuries a player can suffer. L.A. fans, prepare yourselves: This team is not going to be in the playoff race, and if that's apparent early, the front office will need to pivot and think about trades.

[ambchang]

The important thing is that he got the groupings right:

The Contenders, Group A: MIA, SAS, CHI, OKC
The Contenders, Group B: Prove It: IND, MEM, HOU, LAC, BKN
The Juicy Middle: NYK, GSW
The Eastern Conference Morass: ATL, WAS, DET, MIL
The Eastern Swing Teams: TOR, CLE
The Western Conference Morass: Can Anyone Defend?: DEN, DAL, MIN, POR, NOP
Just Plain Bad: LAL, CHA, SAC
Back Up the Tanker Truck: PHI, BOS, PHO, UTA, ORL

[Leetonidas]

52 wins :lol

[Leetonidas]

The important thing is that he got the groupings right:

The Contenders, Group A: MIA, SAS, CHI, OKC
The Contenders, Group B: Prove It: IND, MEM, HOU, LAC, BKN
The Juicy Middle: NYK, GSW
The Eastern Conference Morass: ATL, WAS, DET, MIL
The Eastern Swing Teams: TOR, CLE
The Western Conference Morass: Can Anyone Defend?: DEN, DAL, MIN, POR, NOP
Just Plain Bad: LAL, CHA, SAC
Back Up the Tanker Truck: PHI, BOS, PHO, UTA, ORL

I'd switch Chicago and OKC for Indiana and Brooklyn. If anything, Indiana proved how good they are already and improved and Brooklyn improved greatly. Chicago and OKC are the ones who need to prove it with their key players sustaining severe injuries and coming back next season.

That and imo OKC is not a true contender since losing Harden and especially since Martin left and they basically got nothing in return for anyone :lol

[ambchang]

I am very much sold on Chicago. If Thibodeau can learn to manage the minutes better in the regular season and the team can avoid injuries, I can see the Bulls pushing Miami to the limit, or even win a close game 7 on the Bulls homecourt.

OKC is a mixed bag, really depending on how Westbrook plays. If RWB can play in pre-injury form and improve his decision making, OKC is still dangerous. I don't see the team unseating Miami, or even beating the Bulls, but they can very well come out of the West.

IND, I think, is a clear step below the Bulls. They match up with MIA very well, but CHI can really match them up in size, and can do whathever IND can do, only better. I don't think IND will come out of the east, unless MIA and CHI meets in an earlier round and beat the bloody pulp out of each other.

BKN has too many question marks. Is Kidd a good coach, will Pierce and Garnett still be able to produce at a high level? Can the players mash together? For some reason, I just see a team that is very talented, but not really built correctly. It just seems like a bunch of guys thrown together. I could very well be wrong on this, but there really hasn't been a good track record of over-the-hill ex-superstars changing teams that can make an actual impact on the new team, and I don't see Pierce and Garnett bucking the trend.

[Brazil]

I'd go like that:

The Contenders, Group A: MIA,
The Contenders, Group B: Prove It: SAS, CHI, IND, HOU, BKN

[Leetonidas]

Spurs were 28 seconds away for #5. Barring Duncan falling off a cliff and Ginobili becoming completely useless and Parker breaking his ankles, Spurs are a legit contender.

Chicago I would be on board with but Rose is a question mark. I'll reserve judgment til I see him play 20-30 games

[Brazil]

Spurs were 28 seconds away for #5. Barring Duncan falling off a cliff and Ginobili becoming completely useless and Parker breaking his ankles, Spurs are a legit contender.

Chicago I would be on board with but Rose is a question mark. I'll reserve judgment til I see him play 20-30 games

Still Spurs are under constant damocles spade regarding injuries, Manu is a porcelain doll nowadays, Parker played 120 games last season and even if Tim's work ethic is unbelievable age is gonna catch him one day.

I do think Beli addition is a great addition, dude gonna fit nicely but depth at SF sucks, Manu is gonna play most of the minutes behind Leonard and I am not fan of Manu playing significant minutes at this spot at his age.

To come back at contending Spurs will need Leonard to carry a ton of load, I'm a big fan of Leonard but we don't know how he will react with a shit more reponsabilities on his shoulder especially when opposing team will give him a preferential look on defense.

That's too many ? to be considered as contender imho.

For Chicago it will depend on Rose's return, if he is fully healthy and if Thib start to manage minutes during RS. Houston and Bkn are big ? on paper bkn has an impressive roster but how this is going to gel with a rookie coach ? Houston fate is also difficult to predict, Howard had a solid second half of the season but he was not dominant like during his Orlando's year and he is still fragile emotionally... also can he start to hit FTs at a decent clip ?

I don't see many relevant ? on Miami's side except three peating is a hard task for the rest they are good to go.

[D-Wade]

The shit about the Lakers is hilarious... and true. But for all the respect Lowe gets on here for not going with the crowd, I don't see why he still has Chicago in the contender group instead of Indy. That's straight out of ESPN's playbook, looking for a rival for Lebron (hint: Lebron owns Rose). On the other hand, despite lack of star power, Indiana has totally proved their worth, coming within 48 minutes from the NBA finals. Granted, some of it is because Bosh was in a slump and Wade was playing on one leg, but Indiana only got better this year and they deserve to be in that contender group over a team that lost to MIA in 2011 4-1 WITH Rose. I'd also take OKC out of the contender group. All they have is KD, Westbrook (TBD after injury).... They don't even have Kevin Martin as a 3rd option now.

[lefty]

The shit about the Lakers is hilarious... and true. But for all the respect Lowe gets on here for not going with the crowd, I don't see why he still has Chicago in the contender group instead of Indy. That's straight out of ESPN's playbook, looking for a rival for Lebron (hint: Lebron owns Rose). On the other hand, despite lack of star power, Indiana has totally proved their worth, coming within 48 minutes from the NBA finals. Granted, some of it is because Bosh was in a slump and Wade was playing on one leg, but Indiana only got better this year and they deserve to be in that contender group over a team that lost to MIA in 2011 4-1 WITH Rose. I'd also take OKC out of the contender group. All they have is KD, Westbrook (TBD after injury).... They don't even have Kevin Martin as a 3rd option now.
FROOF BOMBS

[DMC]

Indy is like SA. SA didn't get any respect for years even though they were right there every year. They were always counted out or just discounted altogether. If Indy makes a strong push this season, and they don't blow it up, they'll have to start getting mentioned.

You cannot deny Chicago though. Before Rose went down, they were destroying the league.