skin
11-02-2013, 01:31 PM
Full post at http://basketball.realgm.com/article/230480/Top-60-Players-In-NBA-Today-Considering-Everything
Player quality: How good a player is now as where they could be moving forward. Teams win championships with MVPs and top tier talent is the most valuable commodity in basketball, especially with individual max contracts. Truly elite players also typically translate into at least regular season success. For guys currently younger than their peak, their ceiling and the likelihood of reaching that ceiling matter a great deal. Versatility and longevity were major factors as well.
Player age: Since everyone on this list is a good basketball player, how much total value they will contribute to their teams comes more in both duration of success rather and degree. This factor takes older high quality players like Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitzki out since there are similarly good players who will have longer remaining careers.
Contract: Since the NBA has a salary cap, luxury tax and Collective Bargaining Agreement to shape how teams can be built, the financial commitment to each player means a great deal. While the years and total dollars matter significantly, it is hard to understate the importance of “team control” through Restricted Free Agency since it allows a franchise to retain a player unless he undertakes extraordinary measures. For example, Dwight Howard and Andre Drummond will likely be free agents the same summer, yet Detroit can keep Drummond as long as they are willing to match any offer. Houston would love the same opportunity.
Positional value and scarcity: I value primary scorers, elite defenders and primary ballhandlers more than just about anything else on the floor because of how hard they are to find. True centers get pushed up as well because of how few of them are left in the league and the reverse is true for power forwards that cannot defend another position.
Durability/Injury Status: Players must be on the court in order to contribute. As such, a guy being more or less likely than others to miss meaningful time was considered in the process.
What was not considered when making this list:
Any specific connection between player and team: Certain players have higher or lower values for specific franchises due to their history with the franchise or the surrounding area (like Derrick Rose in Chicago or Kobe Bryant with the Lakers).
Effect selecting or not selecting a player would have on management’s reputation: One of my biggest gripes with Simmons’ consistently strong Trade Value column comes from players making it higher on the list since a GM would not trade them since it would make them look bad. Darko on the Pistons years ago and Andrea Barngnai under the Colangelo regime stand as classic examples.
Spurs Players
36. Tiago Splitter (C/PF, 28 years old, 4 years / $36m): I cannot figure out if 28 seems too young or too old for Splitter. He has only played three years in the league and has done an excellent job hitting the ground running. After a year of adjusting to playing next to Tim Duncan, Splitter earned his fair extension by continuing to rebound well while also reducing his turnovers in a meaningful way. A little uptick on the boards or from the field could improve his standing among the big men in the league.
24. Tony Parker (PG, 31 years old, 2 years / $25m): The oldest person on this list, Tony Parker combines magical play with a very nice contract. In fact, he is young and crafty enough to play for years to come as long as his body acquiesces.
13. Kawhi Leonard (SF, 22 years old, 2 years / $4.7m + RFA): Likely the centerpiece of the next iteration of the San Antonio Spurs, Leonard brings defensive talent and effort to make life insanely difficult for opponents while also rebounding at a quality clip for a swingman. Improving his ability to create for himself and others would help Leonard become a transcendent player and even more deserving of building around instead of being one of the best supporting pieces in the league.
Top 5
5. Russell Westbrook (PG, 24 years old, 4 years/$64.8m): An argument can be made for Russell Westbrook being the most underappreciated elite player in the NBA today. He has the physical tools and intensity to be an impactful player on defense and provides a chaotic positive force on offense. At only 24 on Opening Day, Westbrook has plenty of time to work out the kinks in his game and become an even better facilitator.
4. Derrick Rose (PG, 25 years old, 4 years / $77.8m): A guarantee of a return to his pre-injury form would potentially jump Rose to the third spot considering how good he was during his MVP season. Rose’s combination of defensive ability, offensive capability, and the desire to improve puts him at a higher level than any other young point guard while he still has plenty of room to grow into an even better player. A richer contract than most of the players ahead of him along with the injury uncertainty puts him just outside the top ten for the time being.
3. Anthony Davis (PF/C, 20 years old, 3 years/$18m + RFA): Out of all of the unfinished big men who are strong on one side of the floor, Anthony Davis has the best chance of becoming an all-around force. His late growth spurt helped give him a deeper offensive skill set and should allow him to fit in the stereotypical power forward role on offense. While he should be able to handle most interior players defensively, Davis may end up being a different kind of elite defensive player than anchors like Ben Wallace and Dwight Howard due to his slimmer build.
2. LeBron James (SF/PF, 28 years old, 1 year/$19m): Unequivocally the best player in the world right now. LeBron ends just out of the top spot because his opt-outs after each of the next two seasons combined with a proven willingness to leave his current franchise for a better overall situation make him substantially more risky for a franchise than the next guy.
1. Kevin Durant (SF, 25 years old, 3 years/$57m): At times last year I caught myself watching Durant in awe and then realizing that he still should be ahead of his prime seasons as a basketball player. Durant has become a phenomenal offensive talent who already can be efficient despite carrying a large portion of the load on that end. Any improvement on defense makes him a deadlier player and even easier to build a championship team around.
IMO this list is fine. Of course, don't agree with Westbrook in 5th and Andre Drummond in 7th. Too high. On the other hand, I think Kevin Love deserved a better spot in the list but Kawhi is listed right.
Player quality: How good a player is now as where they could be moving forward. Teams win championships with MVPs and top tier talent is the most valuable commodity in basketball, especially with individual max contracts. Truly elite players also typically translate into at least regular season success. For guys currently younger than their peak, their ceiling and the likelihood of reaching that ceiling matter a great deal. Versatility and longevity were major factors as well.
Player age: Since everyone on this list is a good basketball player, how much total value they will contribute to their teams comes more in both duration of success rather and degree. This factor takes older high quality players like Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitzki out since there are similarly good players who will have longer remaining careers.
Contract: Since the NBA has a salary cap, luxury tax and Collective Bargaining Agreement to shape how teams can be built, the financial commitment to each player means a great deal. While the years and total dollars matter significantly, it is hard to understate the importance of “team control” through Restricted Free Agency since it allows a franchise to retain a player unless he undertakes extraordinary measures. For example, Dwight Howard and Andre Drummond will likely be free agents the same summer, yet Detroit can keep Drummond as long as they are willing to match any offer. Houston would love the same opportunity.
Positional value and scarcity: I value primary scorers, elite defenders and primary ballhandlers more than just about anything else on the floor because of how hard they are to find. True centers get pushed up as well because of how few of them are left in the league and the reverse is true for power forwards that cannot defend another position.
Durability/Injury Status: Players must be on the court in order to contribute. As such, a guy being more or less likely than others to miss meaningful time was considered in the process.
What was not considered when making this list:
Any specific connection between player and team: Certain players have higher or lower values for specific franchises due to their history with the franchise or the surrounding area (like Derrick Rose in Chicago or Kobe Bryant with the Lakers).
Effect selecting or not selecting a player would have on management’s reputation: One of my biggest gripes with Simmons’ consistently strong Trade Value column comes from players making it higher on the list since a GM would not trade them since it would make them look bad. Darko on the Pistons years ago and Andrea Barngnai under the Colangelo regime stand as classic examples.
Spurs Players
36. Tiago Splitter (C/PF, 28 years old, 4 years / $36m): I cannot figure out if 28 seems too young or too old for Splitter. He has only played three years in the league and has done an excellent job hitting the ground running. After a year of adjusting to playing next to Tim Duncan, Splitter earned his fair extension by continuing to rebound well while also reducing his turnovers in a meaningful way. A little uptick on the boards or from the field could improve his standing among the big men in the league.
24. Tony Parker (PG, 31 years old, 2 years / $25m): The oldest person on this list, Tony Parker combines magical play with a very nice contract. In fact, he is young and crafty enough to play for years to come as long as his body acquiesces.
13. Kawhi Leonard (SF, 22 years old, 2 years / $4.7m + RFA): Likely the centerpiece of the next iteration of the San Antonio Spurs, Leonard brings defensive talent and effort to make life insanely difficult for opponents while also rebounding at a quality clip for a swingman. Improving his ability to create for himself and others would help Leonard become a transcendent player and even more deserving of building around instead of being one of the best supporting pieces in the league.
Top 5
5. Russell Westbrook (PG, 24 years old, 4 years/$64.8m): An argument can be made for Russell Westbrook being the most underappreciated elite player in the NBA today. He has the physical tools and intensity to be an impactful player on defense and provides a chaotic positive force on offense. At only 24 on Opening Day, Westbrook has plenty of time to work out the kinks in his game and become an even better facilitator.
4. Derrick Rose (PG, 25 years old, 4 years / $77.8m): A guarantee of a return to his pre-injury form would potentially jump Rose to the third spot considering how good he was during his MVP season. Rose’s combination of defensive ability, offensive capability, and the desire to improve puts him at a higher level than any other young point guard while he still has plenty of room to grow into an even better player. A richer contract than most of the players ahead of him along with the injury uncertainty puts him just outside the top ten for the time being.
3. Anthony Davis (PF/C, 20 years old, 3 years/$18m + RFA): Out of all of the unfinished big men who are strong on one side of the floor, Anthony Davis has the best chance of becoming an all-around force. His late growth spurt helped give him a deeper offensive skill set and should allow him to fit in the stereotypical power forward role on offense. While he should be able to handle most interior players defensively, Davis may end up being a different kind of elite defensive player than anchors like Ben Wallace and Dwight Howard due to his slimmer build.
2. LeBron James (SF/PF, 28 years old, 1 year/$19m): Unequivocally the best player in the world right now. LeBron ends just out of the top spot because his opt-outs after each of the next two seasons combined with a proven willingness to leave his current franchise for a better overall situation make him substantially more risky for a franchise than the next guy.
1. Kevin Durant (SF, 25 years old, 3 years/$57m): At times last year I caught myself watching Durant in awe and then realizing that he still should be ahead of his prime seasons as a basketball player. Durant has become a phenomenal offensive talent who already can be efficient despite carrying a large portion of the load on that end. Any improvement on defense makes him a deadlier player and even easier to build a championship team around.
IMO this list is fine. Of course, don't agree with Westbrook in 5th and Andre Drummond in 7th. Too high. On the other hand, I think Kevin Love deserved a better spot in the list but Kawhi is listed right.