Spurs Salary Cap in the Post-Duncan Era (discussion)

[Go0n]

Spurs Salaries 2013-18
Player Option | Qualifying Offer



Player
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18


Tim Duncan
10,361,446
10,361,446
---------
---------
---------


Tony Parker
12,500,000
12,500,000
---------
---------
---------


Manu Ginobili
7,000,000
7,000,000
---------
---------
---------





Player
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18


Tiago Splitter
10,000,000
9,250,000
8,500,000
8,250,000
---------


Kawhi Leonard
1,991,760
3,053,368
4,268,608
---------
---------


Cory Joseph
1,182,600
2,134,593
3,201,889
---------
---------


Danny Green
3,762,500
4,025,000
---------
---------
---------


Marco Belinelli
2,750,000
2,873,750
---------
---------
---------


Jeff Ayers
1,750,000
1,828,750
---------
---------
---------


Aron Baynes
778,872
1,115,243
---------
---------
---------


Boris Diaw
4,702,500
---------
---------
---------
---------


Nando De Colo
1,463,000
---------
---------
---------
---------


Patty Mills
1,133,950
---------
---------
---------
---------





Totals -------
63,331,628
53,026,907
8,500,000
8,250,000
---------


source (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/san_antonio.htm)

As you can see, there's almost nobody signed beyond Duncan's presumed retirement (after 2014/15 season). Splitter is the only exception, and the Spurs obviously want to re-sign Parker and Leonard.

I think I'm correct in saying this is the biggest amount of cap space we've had to work with since before David Robinson. Several players on the current roster will undoubtedly get extensions in the next two years, but we're looking at an opportunity for a real shake-up, and the potential room to bring in a big name free agent.

Assuming:


Diaw retires in the next two years
Ginobili retires with Duncan
Parker re-signs for 12.5m
Leonard signs for 12m
We have the rest of the roster filled for roughly the current amount


That leaves just over 14m in cap space. It's not enough to sign LeBron or Durant, but we're looking at another major player to complete a new big 3 with Parker and Leonard. If the Spurs go just under the luxury tax (~70m), that gives them 24m to work with, enough to at least compete for the big ticket items.

2015 Free Agents
Player Option



Player
Position
Team
2014/15
2015/16


Rajon Rondo
PG
Celtics
12,909,090
----------


Monta Ellis
SG
Mavericks
8,360,000
8,720,000


Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
SF
Bobcats
5,016,960
6,331,404


LaMarcus Aldridge
PF
Trailblazers
16,006,000
----------


Kevin Love
PF
Timberwolves
15,719,062
16,744,218


Anthony Davis
PF
Pelicans
5,607,240
7,070,730


Marc Gasol
C
Grizzlies
15,829,688
----------


Roy Hibbert
C
Pacers
14,898,938
15,514,031


Al Jefferson
C
Bobcats
13,500,000
13,500,000


DeAndre Jordan
C
Clippers
11,440,123
----------


Omer Asik
C
Rockets?
8,374,646
----------


source (http://www.hoopsworld.com/2015-nba-free-agents)

[TrainOfThought5]

Outaide of Roy Hibbert and Aldridge i dont like any of those names. I hope some of our stashed overseas talent pays off.

[Richie]

Your assumptions make no sense.

First off, why would Diaw retire? Dude will only be 33 in a couple years.

Next, why would you assume the roster would be full of similar price players? The roster will be effectively empty because of all the free agents coming off the books. A likely situation will be us going in to the summer with only 2 players signed to guaranteed deals, Splitter and Kawhi. Tony will get an extension so you can include him.

Using your numbers, that gives us around $32m committed to those three players and considering a likely increase in the cap, around $30m in cap space. We will chase free agents before resigning any of our players. You don't want to miss out on a Love, Aldridge or Hibbert because you gave Danny Green a contract too early in the summer.

We'll be in an exceptional position cap wise, but it likely won't make a difference as players likely won't want to come here. Look at Dallas in the last couple of years, overflowing with cap space and ended up with Ellis and Calderon.

Any of Love, Aldridge or Gasol would fit well with Tiago. I don't see Hibbert/Splitter working because neither has a jumpshot, so we'd have to find someone to take his contract.

In reality, we have to hope we find another gem in the draft through sheer luck or trading up.

[Libri]

You forgot Bonner.

[Chinook]

Parker will likely take less of it helps the team land a premiere free agent. I don't think we'll have any idea how much cap he'll take up until after the first week of July, 2015.

I think the Spurs will have enough space to offer one max or near-max deal that summer. That estimate comes from assuming Parker and Leonard take up about $20-22 Million and Green and Diaw combine for around another $13-15 Million. That plus eight roster charges leaves about $14-18 Million, which is enough for various types of max offers. If it's on the high end of cap space, Aldridge is a possibility. He may well still be for the lower end of cap space if he starts showing signs of aging.

Smart drafting over the next two years combined with a good use of the room exception may lead to a very strong rotation. Mills among others may still be on the team, which would complicate matters, obviously.

[Baam]

Wouldn't rule out a tanking plan... After Robinson and Duncan why not go for Jahlil Okafor...

I'm not sure you get a contender with a 33yrs old TP, a 34yrs old Diaw with bad back, Kawhi Leonard who is offensively limited and an overpaid FA... Especially if they can't even retain Green...

Only someone like Marc Gasol could somewhat fill Duncan's shoes on both ends and I don't see why he'd want to come here...

[Chinook]

YOU'RE MARC GASOL?!?!

[Baam]

Lol edited but not quickly enough

[Chinook]

Lol. Too bad I didn't quote it. No one's gonna get it.

[Chinook]

Also, OP, Davis and MKG both have TEAM options in 2015. Davis especially is not going to be on the market.

I'd also add Bosh to the potential free-agent list. He almost certainly won't use his ETO this summer, but I'd say he's likely to opt out in 2015 if James leaves in the next two years. He's even less likely to get a max contract than out-of-prime Aldridge, and he could be an excellent compliment to Splitter.

[Brazil]

Lol. Too bad I didn't quote it. No one's gonna get it.

I confirm

[Chinook]

I confirm

He originally said "... don't know why I'D want to ..." instead of "he'd".

[Brazil]

He originally said "... don't know why I'D want to ..." instead of "he'd".

:lol that would be funny

[CGD]

It all depends on what Tony wants to do. If he leaves (never say never), then you have to move everyone including Leonard and Tiago for picks. You don't want to be the UTAH JAZZ and be perpetually mediocre while drafting in shitty slots.

[Libri]

It might depend on whether Pop is still with the team or not.

[CGD]

This grantland piece is interesting and discusses the Pacer cap situation. http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/82471/the-growing-legend-of-lance-stephenson

Makes me wonder if Hibbert would be available in 2015. If the pacers can't get over the hump, why not trade him for assets assuming he opts in to his last year with the pacers? Something like Tiago + picks? Hibbert can continue to work with a retired Tim on his post game.

[Libri]

^Tim is going to disappear after retirement, except for the occasional sighting at the local comic con.

[Captivus]

Does anybody think this is possible?
The Spurs don't wait and acquire a player next season (2014 FA) because they really ike someone, and pay the tax 1 year.

[SpursDynasty21]

If the Spurs draft well, and sign/trade for a star player or two...they should still be able to compete. I'm interested to see who the might try to sign or trade for. They will probably need another star player post Duncan era.

[Chinook]

Does anybody think this is possible?
The Spurs don't wait and acquire a player next season (2014 FA) because they really ike someone, and pay the tax 1 year.

Nope. The team would have to trade for a star next season, and if that were to happen, they'd have plenty of room under the tax.

[Captivus]

Nope. The team would have to trade for a star next season, and if that were to happen, they'd have plenty of room under the tax.

You think the only way to get a FA next year is to trade? You dont think they get a player without trading anyone.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

You think the only way to get a FA next year is to trade? You dont think they get a player without trading anyone.

They will not have enough cap space to offer much to anyone next summer. It doesn't even matter if they're willing to pay the lux tax ( which they're not, of course ).

[CGD]

^ well that assumes they resign Boris and Patty. I think they do, but who knows if Boris plays himself into a contract bigger than what they want to pay.

[Mel_13]

^ well that assumes they resign Boris and Patty. I think they do, but who knows if Boris plays himself into a contract bigger than what they want to pay.

They won't have cap space for a major FA next summer even if Boris and Patty are not brought back (see the data in the first post). Any major change next year will have to come via trade.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

CGD Not true - they have over $52 mil commited without Boris and Patty ( unless Parker is waived ).

[CGD]

CGD (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17088) Not true - they have over $52 mil commited without Boris and Patty ( unless Parker is waived ).

Yup, my bad. Stand corrected.

So really Spurs only have the exceptions to play with next summer? If I understand correctly they have to deal with large cap holds for Boris, Bonner, and Millsy (to a lesser extent), if they're gonna use caproom.

[Baam]

Well looks like the post Duncan era could start one year early... I don't see Duncan picking up his player option if he can't play better.

[CGD]

^ I know Tim is a nice dude, but who walks away from $10m unless you're trading that in for a longer term deal?

[Darkwaters]

I still think theres a strong chance that we trade Bonner's expiring at the deadline for someone this year. And theres no way to know what kind of contract situation he'll have. But probably at least two years on it.

[will_spurs]

It looks like the whole contract situation is geared towards making a big move during the 2015 summer, when the core will be Parker, Leonard, Splitter and Green, with possibly Diaw, Mills and Beli for the 2nd unit. That seems to coincide with Duncan, Manu and Pop retiring at the same time. BTW I don't see Green + Diaw eating up $13-15M or so in cap space as Chinook suggested. Both of them are $4-5M players, I don't see their combined impact going over $10M. Remember that Diaw opted into a 2nd year with the Spurs last June for $4.7M. Willingly. As far as I'm concerned, he's here to stay (as long as Parker doesn't move), and for roughly the same price.

Given the 8 players the Spurs are likely to keep, the priority would be a big (preferably PF) to replace Duncan, and a decent PG. Since MKG and Davis are unlikely to be on the market, as Chinook noted, Hibbert is the biggest draw. Aldridge and Love would be intriguing prospects. Rondo, Gasol, Ellis are too old and/or not good enough to warrant a max contract.

Love sounds like a good possibility: he's on a crappy team (well, this year they are decent), he doesn't seem too attracted to big markets, and he'd be sure to have a lot of PT (since the other bigs on the Spurs rosters wouldn't be stars).Not sure the FO likes his D, though.

[CGD]

Given the 8 players the Spurs are likely to keep, the priority would be a big (preferably PF) to replace Duncan, and a decent PG. Since MKG and Davis are unlikely to be on the market, as Chinook noted, Hibbert is the biggest draw. . .

I do think that if the overhyped pacers can't get past Lebron this or next year, there is a chance players/team start getting frustrated and looking at other options. Could be that Hibbert decides to opt out of his last year for a long term deal elsewhere, or at the very least that he flirts with a team like the spurs where he could be the man from day one.

[jesterbobman]

One other option for maintaining large cap space is to not sign Kawhi to an extension this summer, and wait until the 2015 offseason to give him money.

If we're assuming he gets a $12m a year deal, this strategy would give us an additional 7.5m in cap space, given his QO is 4.3m. Kawhi would have to accept the plan, or he'd rightfully ask why he's not being extended this offseason. It's acceptable that he might want security, and just wants to sign asap.

We might end up paying a little more(both in total and for Kawhi), but if you can do this, you have money available for an additional high value player. Assuming the first lot of money is for a big(Which may or may not work) we could make a run at Chandler Parsons, Goran Dragic, Thaddeus Young, Jeremy Lin etc. If you get Dragic, you'd have

Splitter
Free Agent Big(Aldridge, Love, Millsap, Hibbert, Gasol)/Diaw
Kawhi/Livio/Bertans
Green/Bellineli(Assume resigned)
Parker/Dragic(Or Lin, looking for a good bench guard)

Plus first round picks in 2014 and 2015. That team is a good playoff team.

[Captivus]

The Spurs need to go ALL IN for an all star big, otherwise realistic championship expectations are zero.
I really like Davis, I would try to get him...the QO doenst matter, either we pay or make someone else pay.

[jesterbobman]

There is no point attempting to get Davis. He'll make at least 2 all star teams on his rookie deal, and get the 5 year super max from the Pelicans. He won't be a free agent until 2020.