Need some advice picking the game tomorrow night (no Avante allowed, tbh)

[spurraider21]

I'm in a season long pool where we have to make 100 plays for the duration of the year, only picks ATS. no heads up picks, no o/u. strictly ATS.

I'm middle of the pack in the overall standings, so i'm not in contention for the big prize, but there are also weekly winners awarded for highest win% per week, so long as you make a minimum of 5 plays (you are allowed to double down on 2 games per week, so you could theoretically pick 3 games and double 2 of them to get those 5 plays, etc).

I already won a weekly a few weeks back, so I got my entry fee + some pocket change back, but i'm currently in contention for this week's prize. As it stands, I'm 5-0 this week (had Bengals, Chiefs, Broncos, and I doubled down on the Saints). There is 1 dude in the pool who is 4-0 (picked 3 winners, doubled down on one), and everybody else has a loss. Since win% decides the weekly winner, we are currently the top 2. I could obviously choose not to take tomorrow night's game and hope he fucks up, but thats beta behavior. I'm not gna sit back and watch him double down and beat me while I sit at home with my thumb up my ass. The line in our pool is set at Bears - 0.5, so its essentially pickem unless there's actually a tie.

I'm leaning Cowboys, but its December Romo, tbh. Bears defense has just been atrocious, and even though Josh McCown is playing well, its still fucking Josh McCown. Dallas is also getting Sean Lee back, and they've had a long week off since they played Thanksgiving.

Any advice from non cowboy fans/avante?

[Holden_Caulfield]

If i had to bet money on this game, i would pick the over tbh...

[HarlemHeat37]

I'd sit it out and make him pick, tbh..

This is one of the most difficult games to cap this season IMO..

[Trainwreck2100]

remeber that last year on Monday night the bears curstomped the cowboys, i take it you can't see who that guy picked?

[spurraider21]

remeber that last year on Monday night the bears curstomped the cowboys, i take it you can't see who that guy picked?
no, it won't release his pick until the game is locked. what sucks is, theres a few guys that are 5-1, and 6-1, so i if i pick the game and lose, i give all those guys the opportunity to pass me as well. harlem's route is probably the safest, put the pressure on him. there's no guarantee he will double down on the game. in the event of a tie, the tiebreaker is whoever has the better win% the following week. in fact thats how i won my only weekly.

although i can go back and see if he has a history of picking the bears or boys a lot, which could tip me off

[spurraider21]

just went back and checked. through weeks 1-13, the other guy has picked Dallas to cover 4 times, has never picked Dallas' opponent to cover. He has NEVER picked chicago to cover, and has picked against chicago 4 times.

so pretty sure he's gna go dallas.

[spurraider21]

the problem is, if i pick and go wrong, i'll drop to 5-1. there are 4 teams that are currently 5-1 so theres a solid chance at least 1 of them will bump up to 6-1.

[Robz4000]

Tough decision. When's the latest you can make your pick? If you get a chance to see if it'll snow for sure, I'd go Bears. As you said, it's time for December Romo and playingi n the snow will only compound his choking.

[spurraider21]

Tough decision. When's the latest you can make your pick? If you get a chance to see if it'll snow for sure, I'd go Bears. As you said, it's time for December Romo and playingi n the snow will only compound his choking.
They usually lock the games pretty late, literally a minute or 2 before kickoff

:lol i really didn't want to pick this game.

[Avante]

Dallas is coming off a bye more or less, remember they played on turkey day. Coming out of a bye they are 7-1 vs the number in their last 8.

They have scored 329 and given up 303 so they are a plus 26 team. The Bears have scored 323 and given up 332 so they are a minus team.

Cowboys have won 3 of their last 5 the Bears 2 of 5.

As a Sunday night dog Dallas is 10-11, as a Sunday night fav Chicago is 5-6.

The Bears are 4-2 at home, The Cowboys are 2-4 on the road , this is a biggie.

With the Eagles winning the Cowboys have to have this game, they do score more and give up less, they have been playing better lately than the Bears. Would you believe as a December fav the Bears are 20-19 and as a December dog the Cowboys are also 20-19....weird!

There isn't any real.....BOOM! there it is....for either side but if you must play the game, Cowboys plus the 1.5.

[spurraider21]

I'm not getting 1.5 I'm getting 0.5

[Avante]

I'm not getting 1.5 I'm getting 0.5

I guess the fact Chicago is at home could scare some away.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

I'm not getting 1.5 I'm getting 0.5

:lol nice catch

:lmao looks like Avante is making up spreads again like he did last year

[Avante]

:lol nice catch

:lmao looks like Avante is making up spreads again like he did last year

You know anything about the....OPENING LINE...moron?

paste

The Cowboys (7-5) will look for a win to keep the top spot in the NFC East while the Bears (6-6) want to maintain hope for a playoff spot.
Coverage of the game between the Cowboys and Bears will air on ESPN beginning at 8:30 pm ET from Soldier Field in Chicago, IL.
The Odds: The Dallas Cowboys are a one point favorite against the Chicago Bears. The Bears actually opened as a 1.5 point favorite. The over/under for this game is 48 total points.
Will the Cowboys avoid another disappointing loss to the Bears?

Are you really stupid enought to think anyone fucks with betting lines that are so easy to find, you really this dumb? I bet on the game the day the ....OPENING LINE...was posted....ok stupid? Just like I did last season.

How many morons post here anyway...wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[spurraider21]

I can't go shopping for favorable lines. I'm in a big pool and lines are set there

[Avante]

I can't go shopping for favorable lines. I'm in a big pool and lines are set there

Anytime we deal with anything less than 3 you pretty much go with who you thinks should win the game. You do know that in most cases the favored winners usually cover anyway.

Since we saw the swing we saw in this particular "spot" we are being told everyone is on the Cowboys. We rarely see a favorite become a dog.

[spurraider21]

Anytime we deal with anything less than 3 you pretty much go with who you thinks should win the game. You do know that in most cases the favored winners usually cover anyway.

Since we saw the swing we saw in this particular "spot" we are being told everyone is on the Cowboys. We rarely see a favorite become a dog.
i having trouble accepting your advice. you are clearly struggling this year, and thus probably don't have a great grasp on where teams rank and how they will fare against one another. as it turns out, this year i'd be better of flipping a coin that using your picks.

this is why the thread title specifically said "no avante"

[Spur-Addict]

:lol

[Avante]

i having trouble accepting your advice. you are clearly struggling this year, and thus probably don't have a great grasp on where teams rank and how they will fare against one another. as it turns out, this year i'd be better of flipping a coin that using your picks.

this is why the thread title specifically said "no avante"

There is nobody here that has any clue at all about any of this stuff but me. Been at for over 40 years, not a stone I left unturned. I gave you every...fact..there is on the game.

What was this about?

paste
Any advice from non cowboy fans/avante?


You look at power points which takes everything these teams have done this season into consideration and we have.

Cowboys 25
Bears 20

Good luck getting any other serious betting advice here.

[Clipper Nation]

Tbh, you should just pick the opposite of whatever Avante suggests, it's a proven winning strategy :lol

[AchillesHeel]

:lol

[spurraider21]

There is nobody here that has any clue at all about any of this stuff but me. Been at for over 40 years, not a stone I left unturned. I gave you every...fact..there is on the game.

What was this about?

paste
Any advice from non cowboy fans/avante?


You look at power points which takes everything these teams have done this season into consideration and we have.

Cowboys 25
Bears 20

Good luck getting any other serious betting advice here.
i don't want to hear from cowboys fans because theyre biased.

i dont want to hear from you because you are under 50% as usual, which means i'd rather ask harlem's dog to pick the game. you talk about facts and power points. how have they served you this year?

[GoodOdor]

Tbh, you should just pick the opposite of whatever Avante suggests, it's a proven winning strategy :lol

Statistically speaking, doing so would have netted you a 60% winning season tbh:lol

[HarlemHeat37]

Statistically speaking, doing so would have netted you a 60% winning season tbh:lol

:lol I'm definitely going to make small bets next year using the anti-Avante system, tbh..should be fun, sucks that it'll have to wait until September, though..

[Avante]

i don't want to hear from cowboys fans because theyre biased.

i dont want to hear from you because you are under 50% as usual, which means i'd rather ask harlem's dog to pick the game. you talk about facts and power points. how have they served you this year?

Well since the game is pretty much a pick um



http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

[Avante]

:lol I'm definitely going to make small bets next year using the anti-Avante system, tbh..should be fun, sucks that it'll have to wait until September, though..

Me vs you can start this week, ya got balls?

[Avante]

Statistically speaking, doing so would have netted you a 60% winning season tbh:lol

I'm now at 40%...hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Avante]

I notice nobody ever takes me on, why is that?

[Clipper Nation]

I'm now at 40%...hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
:lmao You guaranteed 65% and now you're bragging about 40%

[HarlemHeat37]

You aren't a real betting connoisseur, tbh..

One of the rules of gambling in any facet is properly managing your bank roll..if your bank roll increases, you can safely increase your bet volume, accordingly..if your bank roll decreases and you're losing consistently, you should consider making smaller bets that fit your adjusted bank roll and winning percentage..at the very least, if you're going to continue gambling, you should keep playing the same volume, tbh..

Avante, a self-proclaimed expert, somehow decided to start betting at a unit volume that is significantly larger than his normal range, despite a decreased bank roll and a horrible record for the season..this nigga decided to chase his bets, which is one of the cardinal sins in the gambling field, meaning he's either:

- An amateur gambler

- A liar

- Both

All of these options are plausible, tbh..

[spurraider21]

i've got like 15 minutes

pls help

[spurraider21]

i decided to bet against avante and december romo. took the bears

[GoodOdor]

i decided to bet against avante and december romo. took the bears

Even if you lose, going against Avante is always the correct call:toast

[Robz4000]

i decided to bet against avante and december romo. took the bears

:tu looks good so far

[jimbo]

There is nobody here that has any clue at all about any of this stuff but me. Been at for over 40 years, not a stone I left unturned. I gave you every...fact..there is on the game.

What was this about?

paste
Any advice from non cowboy fans/avante?


You look at power points which takes everything these teams have done this season into consideration and we have.

Cowboys 25
Bears 20

Good luck getting any other serious betting advice here.


You didn't actually break down any matchups, which is at minimum something you'd have to account for. Everyone has access to the stats you posted, that's why they're irrelevant. They're already taken into account when they write up the lines and as the lines shift. The only way to get a real advantage is to use factors that aren't publicly available and tracked. Sports gambling reflects the efficient market hypothesis with regards to the stats you're saying. The inefficiencies in the markets are small and from the papers I've read there people don't think there's a profitable way to exploit them, not in the long term. (inefficiencies such as ego, media influences on perception, handicaps with regards to large markets)


Here's a good read on one of the more well known NBA gamblers

http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/dollars/post/_/id/2935/meet-the-worlds-top-nba-gambler

And there's tons of papers you can find on the efficient market hypothesis with regards to sports gambling on google

http://academic.reed.edu/economics/parker/s13/312/fproj/JH.pdf

https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/bitstream/handle/2142/24338/Sung_YoonTae.pdf?sequence=1

Tbh, I don't keep up with NFL gambling but I don't even think it's possible to win money from it long term.

[spurraider21]

good first half.

thanks avante :tu

[spurraider21]

:lmao i fucking love avante. bears killing it

[Trainwreck2100]

I notice nobody ever takes me on, why is that?

I did, beat you, you moved the goalposts and ran away

[Holden_Caulfield]

If i had to bet money on this game, i would pick the over tbh...
:toast

[Clipper Nation]

Tbh, you should just pick the opposite of whatever Avante suggests, it's a proven winning strategy :lol

:lol

[spurraider21]

Tbh, you should just pick the opposite of whatever Avante suggests, it's a proven winning strategy :lol


i decided to bet against avante and december romo. took the bears
:hat

[GoodOdor]

Avante, get in here:lol

[Clipper Nation]

Avante, get in here:lol
:cry No can do, he suddenly has to paint another house :cry

[Robz4000]

:lol Did you find out who the other dude picked?

[spurraider21]

:lol Did you find out who the other dude picked?
yeah he picked the cowboys :lol

[spurraider21]

avante is that nigga tho, helped me out in a time of need :lmao

http://i.imgur.com/EnM92GR.png?1

[Robz4000]

Congrats tbh

[KoolAid Mans Brother]

:lmaoAvante

[Trainwreck2100]

avante is that nigga tho, helped me out in a time of need :lmao

http://i.imgur.com/EnM92GR.png?1

Penn State Shower Squad
http://i3.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/013/723/mah-nigga.jpg

[Robz4000]

Penn State Shower Squad
http://i3.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/013/723/mah-nigga.jpg

:lol missed that

[AchillesHeel]

Avante

explain this, sir

[spurraider21]

Penn State Shower Squad
http://i3.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/013/723/mah-nigga.jpg
:lol