Random thoughts and stats after 20 games

[Bruno]

After a 9-1 start, Spurs have gone 7-3 in the next 10 games to be 16-4 after 20 games. It's still very good since it's the pace to end the season with 66 wins.

A fool's gold record?
Spurs are 16-0 against teams with a record below .650.
Spurs are 0-4 against teams with a record above .650.
So, while 16-4 is a damn good start, there isn't a single high quality win in the first 20 games played by Spurs this season. In 3 of the 4 losses, Spurs defense just folded allowing more than 110 points.
It's no that worrisome because Spurs are a vet team but it would certainly be nice to have some kind of statement win.

Spurs overall offense and defense:
On the year Spurs have the 4th best offense with a rating of 106.0 and the 2nd best defense with a rating of 95.9. When you do 10 games splits, Spurs ratings were 102.7/91.6 for the first 10 games and 109.3/100.1 for the last 10 ones. Spurs offense is getting better while the defense is following the other path.
A reason of this defensive drop is the defensive rebounding where Spurs have gone from elite to average. Another reason is Spurs being especially poor defensively in garbage time like the 126.0 defensive rating for De Colo in the last 10 games shows.

Free throws:
Spurs are dead last in the NBA in free throws attended by game at only 16.4. If they continue at that pace, they will be the worst team in the history of the NBA at getting at the line with the second worst being last year Magic at 16.6 FTA/G.
Last season, Spurs weren't good at getting at the line but they were significantly better (22nd in the league at 21.0 FTA/G).
A look player by player in the evolution of FTA per minutes compared to last season:
Parker: -24%
Duncan: -12%
Splitter: -22%
Diaw: +57%
Ginobili: -68%
Mills: +140%
Leonard: -44%
Green: -62%
There is a drop for all Spurs biggest free throws shooters (Parker, Duncan, Splitter and Ginobili). There might be a different explanation to explain each drop. Parker said that he would take it easy the first couple of months after a busy summer, teams might be more reluctant to foul Splitter now that he is done being labelled as a poor free throw shooter...
Leonard getting that little to the line is disappointing. While he is having his best statistical season, he hasn't shown the offensive leap we could have hoped for.
Danny Green is also worth mentioning. In 468 minutes, he went 6 times to the line. 153 players have played that much minutes this year and Green is dead last among these players in FTA/min.

The starting lineup:
Last season, Spurs had an ultra dominating starting lineup of Parker/Green/Leonard/Duncan/Splitter. This year it's a whole new story. While they are a little worst defensively, with a rating going from 87.7 to 92.3, they are still very good at the end of the court but the true issue is offensively. This lineup went from an 105.9 offensive rating last season to a 90.6 offensive rating this year.
Some stats show it:
- They have made 6 threes in 127 minutes played together with a 20.7 3P%. At last year rate, they would have made 15 threes with a 44.4 3P%.
- That have attended 26 FT in 127 min. At last year rate, they would have attended 47 FT.
- They have scored 12 fast break points while it would have been 36 with last year stats per minute.
Behind these ugly stats, there are a lot of personal issues and limitations. Parker isn't as dominant as last season. Duncan was horrible offensively earlier this year. Leonard is stagnating and hasn't shot the ball well this year. Green is a streaky one trick pony whose offense rely on others. I also find Duncan and Splitter less mobile than last year. As it stand, this team just badly lack of, spacing, speed and playmaking.
It is likely premature to break a lineup that was so dominant last season but if it continue, this lineup will have to be broke up one way or another. A contender, with a 16-4 record, just can't have a starting lineup with a negative +/-.

Spurs bench:
With the starting lineup struggling offensively, Spurs receive a nice offensive lift from their bench. Diaw, Belinelli and Mills are just having great season. Ginobili is also playing relatively well. It's not a surprise that these 4 players lead Spurs in offensive rating.
Belinelli is also 2nd in the NBA behind Reggie Jackson in net rating. He has been a tremendous fit for Spurs so far.

Tim's offense is back:
Duncan's first 10 games: 11.7 ppg with a .375 FG% in 28.6mpg. 12/53 (22.6%) from midrange.
Duncan's last 8 games: 14.5 ppg with a .533 FG% in 26.4mpg. 17/35 (48.6%) from midrange
While 8 is too small of a sample size to draw definite conclusions, like 10 games was too small to blurry him, Tim has been back, at least offensively, at a level close to the level he had in the past two years. We will see if it continues.

A new Manu?
While Ginobili is having overall a good but not great season, he isn't playing like in the past. 2 stats shows it:
First, he is averaging 1.7 FTA per 36 minutes while in his 11 previous season he was between 4.3 and 7.3.
Second, he is leading the league in FG% on drives with 74.1% (min 30 drives). And it's not like he is never driving to the basket since he has made 60 drives this year.
It really looks like Manu is avoiding contact. He is giving what the defense is giving and isn't forcing the issue anymore. So now the question is : what are the reasons behind that change?
Is he pacing himself and keeping his energy for after the all star break?
Have all the injuries taken a psychological toll on him? Is he scared?
Has he lost his drive to win and now just want to have fun?
Is he taking a relative backseat to build his teammates confidence?
Does he think that at his stage of his career there is more negative than positive when he is aggressive?
Is he just physically incapable of forcing the issue?
I honestly don't know the answer. What I know is that there will be a point in the playoffs where Spurs will need him to be aggressive. I have no clue if he will answer that call.

A defensive beast:
Splitter has been a a defensive monster this year with Spurs. He currently led the league in defensive rating at 86.9. The second player is Roy Hibbert at 90.0. When Tiago is on the court, opponent are shooting less than 40% from the field.
On the other hand, Spurs defense has been average without Tiago with a 102.1 rating. This effect has even reached crazy proportion, Spurs defensive rating is 87.5 with him on the court and 107.0 without him.
While he will never be considered for the DPOY award because it's all about blocks, rebounds and hype, Splitter is currently one of the best defensive player in the NBA.

[spurraider21]

when i saw random thoughts i thought it was timvp...

:depressed

[spurraider21]

great write up though

:tu

[smaka]

:tu

[Drew2354]

Excellent post! Thanks!

[EVAY]

Wow!! Excellent, excellent write up. I agree with virtually everything you said. Your observations are right on, imo.


1. Splitter really IS our defense now, and the perimeter players really need to get their act together and stop the parade of three point shooting against us.

2. Tim is getting taken to the woodshed by an increasing number of centers and power forwards for other teams. Last night against Toronto was a painfully clear example of it. TIm's offense is coming around, but he no longer has the mobility to be as powerful a defender as in the past. He can still rebound when he gets interested, but he seems to need to have a fire lit under him to get interested.

3. I don't know what is going on with Kawhi, but it is not good. He seems to become more tentative almost every game. One thing that the Spurs coaching staff has never been particularly good at is integrating a third shooter/playmaker. Remember that that is one reason why Manu was put in charge of the second team. They just simply don't seem to know how to utilize a third scoring/playmaking threat when Tim and Tony are both on the floor. (Well, that and the fact that we had no real backup for Tony and still don't.) Likewise, Danny has spurts of greatness and then fails to cover his man repeatedly on defense, and is really struggling to make anything other than 3 pointers. That may change, but the Spurs offense is not as good when he is not making his shots, and you never know if he is going to show up or not.

Tony is being covered fairly extensively in other threads, but it is clear that he is not as aggressive on either end as he was last year. Maybe you are right that he is planning to rev it up after the all-star break. But I think it is also clear that other teams have figured out our offense by now and it is harder and harder for us to accomplish what we used to do with considerable ease. And I think that is affecting Tony as well. Plus, as I said in another thread, maybe Tony is coasting, but he looks flat out bored to me.

Bellinelli is the happiest discovery of the year, so far. He is just dynamite, and I pretty much expect him to take Danny Green's place in the starting line-up before the end of February unless Green really picks things up.

If Baynes can play consistently as he played against Toronto, he is gonna have a really big place in the rotation, and Bonner and Ayres are going to be fighting for the fifth big position. But that is a big IF for Baynes. He is clearly a work in progress, and he will never be able to spread the floor a la Bonner, but I can see Baynes and Diaw playing together very well anchoring the second unit. It will be fun to watch.



Overall, we don't look very crisp against the really good teams, but we also don't look like we care overmuch. Pop has never been good about getting his teams UP for games. He needs to figure that out and fast or we will be a mediocre team that gets bounced in the second round of the playoffs. It can happen. It has before.

[hater]

no surprises tbh

- Belli is a gem and contending for MIP as predicted
- Duncan is first to go through post game 6 Apocalypse recovery
- Rest of the Spurs would hit a wall eventually and deal with the Apocalypse themselves
- Belli saving Manu's career
- Green is a 1 trick Pony who should have been traded day after game 7
- Spurs good record is mainly due to shit league thanks to Stern and his rule changes to make the game more offensive to please average fat american fan

as said, no surprises so far tbqh

[TXstbobcat]

Thank you Bruno! Enjoyed reading.

[Libri]

Spurs bench:
With the starting lineup struggling offensively, Spurs receive a nice offensive lift from their bench. Diaw, Belinelli and Mills are just having great season. Ginobili is also playing relatively well. It's not a surprise that these 4 players lead Spurs in offensive rating.
Belinelli is also 2nd in the NBA behind Reggie Jackson in net rating. He has been a tremendous fit for Spurs so far.

In other words, I should put Beli and Mills on my fantasy team watch list.

[Libri]

no surprises tbh

- Belli is a gem and contending for MIP as predicted
- Duncan is first to go through post game 6 Apocalypse recovery
- Rest of the Spurs would hit a wall eventually and deal with the Apocalypse themselves
- Belli saving Manu's career
- Green is a 1 trick Pony who should have been traded day after game 7
- Spurs good record is mainly due to shit league thanks to Stern and his rule changes to make the game more offensive to please average fat american fan

as said, no surprises so far tbqh

How about Ayres playing so bad? Shouldn't it be a little bit of a surprise considering that he was signed for over $3 million?

[iManu]

Magnifique, Bruno! You covered everything that I was wondering about!

[Robz4000]

Great write-up! :tu

From what I've seen:

1. Duncan's massive weight drop from the past few seasons is catching up. He's having trouble guarding bigger players with a lot of size/athleticism. While its been noticeable in the past with Abaka and even Favors recently, its becoming alarmingly apparent. Luckily I think it's by design with Splitter proving capable as a defensive anchor; Tim can guard the smaller big man threat while patrolling the paint and Splitter can be the primary defender on opposing teams best bigs (ex: Splitter on Hibbert, Tim on West and Splitter on Abaka, Tim on Porkins/Collision/:lolAdams:lol). Offensively Tim is starting to look great again, and his notable jump in assists is a bonus.

2. I might be the only one, but it's clear to me Tony and, to a lesser extent, Manu are coasting and preserving themselves. As long as they get into the playoffs healthy and in rhythm, I'm not worried.

3. Green's what he is (and what we know he is), a streaky player; you keep starting him because when he's hot the Spurs are near unstoppable. While he's cold he's still the Spurs' second best perimeter defender.

4. Leonard is beginning to worry me, but I think most of us knew deep down he wasn't Paul George 2.0. His ceiling is high but it prolly won't be reached until the Spurs stop contending (when Tim/Manu are gone). Not sure what's up with his shot (doesn't look broken), but they can fix the starting lineups offensive woes for good by getting him going closet to the basket. Last couple of games its seemed as if thats what they're doing.

5. King Beli for MIP/Manu for 6MOTY tbh.

6. Diaw has regresses unfortunately, but it might just be his injury. We'll see.

7. I really don't think starting Beli would would be the best idea. If the starting lineup keeps sucking, Spurs should trade Green + whatever for a vet. Beli and Manu off the bench is too potent to break up, plus as hater said Beli is saving Manu's career. Keep the bench intact as much as possible.

8. Its been said, said again, and the issue has been beaten, burned, shredded, and then some, but Ayers is a massive failure. At least Baynes is around to clean up the mess.

9. I hate to say it, but for the Spurs to win it all this year I'm more and more certain the Spurs will need to make a trade. Amir Johnson, Marvin Williams, Trevor Ariza, etc.; Spurs need a smallball 4/another 3. Part of the reason Leonard isn't developing as we thought is due to a lack of significant playing time (averaging less than 28 mins a game last I saw). Its possible he isn't getting it because the medical staff is that worried about his knees. If so, Spurs are fucked if he gets hurt anyway, but not having insurance with the window nearly shut is spitting on all Tim has done for this franchise.

10. Spurs have been somewhat fucked by injuries (tho they've been relatively healthy). Diaw plays the whole game against Houston, Spurs win. Splitter plays the whole game against Indy, Spurs win. That OKC game had loss written all over it and Portland is not a contender (:lol tschl:lolng).

[DAF86]

Ginobili is having overall a good but not great season

11 pts, 4.7 assists, 3.6 rbds and 1 stl on 23 mpg is as great as it gets, tbh. The only thing preventing him from having his usual borderline all-star numbers is playing time. I don't know what more can we expect from him at this stage of his career, if he keeps putting these numbers for the whole season (thing I doubt 'cause it would be pretty hard to mantain these stats on such limited playing time) he would have a pretty damn great season, imho.

[Brazil]

Bruno with the goods per par

[hater]

How about Ayres playing so bad? Shouldn't it be a little bit of a surprise considering that he was signed for over $3 million?

no surprise at all tbh. This is what I concluded after 1 look at Ayres:


Let's call a spade a spade

nigga is 6'9 and he can't fucking dunk a basketball.

he picked the wrong career


the real surprise if any, is Baynes monster play last game. I did call that mofo a damn scrub after all :lmao

[ElNono]

Thanks for the writeup... what was the rationale for picking .650 or better? Just the Spurs win-loss record?

Just seem odd. Normally the breakdown is on .500 (wether the other team is a winning team or not).

[Hoops Czar]

A 126 defensive rating for De Colo sounds about right.

[ElNono]

As far as Manu, I would agree with DAF's post... he had a small 3-4 game slump, but the last few games he's been great on per-minute production (minutes that have been cut short due to games being decided early).

I also think Manu simply trusts this second unit more and doesn't have the obligation to create for everybody. In part that's due to Belli coming in, and also Patty raising his game.

[hater]

Thanks for the writeup... what was the rationale for picking .650 or better? Just the Spurs win-loss record?

Just seem odd. Normally the breakdown is on .500 (wether the other team is a winning team or not).

I'm pretty sure if Spurs had lost to all teams over 50% that would be the case

It's called picking and choosing numbers, ala timvp :lmao

[Chinook]

Splitter has always been a great defender, but his increase in rebounding has made his DRtg soar. Meanwhile Green has stopped rebounding when he plays the two which has hurt him. He still rebounds as a forward though. Last night, he put in good minutes at the four.

Leonard can't shoot and can't drive. He is really out of place in a big lineup. Parker may need to space the floor more or else I don't see the starting offense getting better. Green can't space the floor for everyone, and he's too streaky anyway.

[Bruno]

Thanks for the writeup... what was the rationale for picking .650 or better? Just the Spurs win-loss record?


None.

It was just another way to say that Spurs have lost against the 4 best teams they have faced and win all the other games against lesser teams.

[Hoops Czar]

Thanks for the writeup... what was the rationale for picking .650 or better? Just the Spurs win-loss record?

Just seem odd. Normally the breakdown is on .500 (wether the other team is a winning team or not).

It's probably done to include a team like Houston, considered by many to be elite and to exclude teams like Phoenix and Denver, who aren't elite.

[Bruno]

11 pts, 4.7 assists, 3.6 rbds and 1 stl on 23 mpg is as great as it gets, tbh. The only thing preventing him from having his usual borderline all-star numbers is playing time.

A great Ginobili is a Ginobili with a PER in the 22-24 area like he has been many years in his career. A Ginobili with a 19.3 PER like this year is a good Ginobili. I don't give him an age discount bonus.

[Chinook]

I'm fine with Manu and Tony coasting, but I'd like to see Pop use this time to run plays for Green and Leonard. This is the time you let them figure out what they can do under pressure, not the playoffs when Parker is shut down.

A cool Green wrinkle I saw yesterday was a PnP between him and Parker when Green was the four. That's a nice play to keep in their back pockets to use to force a switch. I've said it over and over again that Leonard needs to set more screens. He'd be a good roll man with practice.

[DAF86]

A great Ginobili is a Ginobili with a PER in the 22-24 area like he has been many years in his career. A Ginobili with a 19.3 PER like this year is a good Ginobili. I don't give him an age discount bonus.

You do realize that that dip in PER is in big part because of the decreased number of minutes played right? What can he do about that?

It's retarded to expect a 36 years old Ginobili on a restricted minutes watch to post numbers like if he was on his prime playing 30 mpg. Specially for you who said that it was "unrealistic" to expect Ginobili to perform better than last season.

[Spurs Brazil]

Thanks Bruno

[Bruno]

You do realize that that dip in PER is in big part because of the decreased number of minutes played right? What can he do about that?

It's retarded to expect a 36 years old Ginobili on a restricted minutes watch to post numbers like if he was on his prime playing 30 mpg. Specially for you who said that it was "unrealistic" to expect Ginobili to perform better than last season.

PER is a per minute stat. A loss of minutes played per game has no negative effect on it. And right now, Ginobili is playing at about last year level.

[DAF86]

PER is a per minute stat. A loss of minutes played per game has no negative effect on it. And right now, Ginobili is playing at about last year level.

Yes, it has. In fact Hollinger changed the formula a couple of years back to consider minutes played 'cause he felt that it was easier to be more efficient while playing less minutes and being less tired. He did it to not penalize the players that had to log big minutes night after night.

[Bruno]

Yes, it has. In fact Hollinger changed the formula a couple of years back to consider minutes played 'cause he felt that it was easier to be more efficient while playing less minutes and being less tired. He did it to not penalize the players that had to log big minutes night after night.

Never heard of that so if you have a link, I'm interested.

Now, I'm using PER stats on this website: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/ginobma01.html
AFAIK, they don't have some kind of bias to lower the PER of low minutes players.

[DAF86]

Never heard of that so if you have a link, I'm interested.

Now, I'm using PER stats on this website: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/ginobma01.html
AFAIK, they don't have some kind of bias to lower the PER of low minutes players.

I'm looking for it, I read it on a Hollinger article on ESPN some years ago. Now I don't remember if it was that Hollinger actually changed the formula or that he ackowledged that PER had that flaw.

[heyheymymy]

Brunovp tbh

[Chinook]

I'm looking for it, I read it on a Hollinger article on ESPN some years ago. Now I don't remember if it was that Hollinger actually changed the formula or that he ackowledged that PER had that flaw.

It's the latter. PER is completely based off per-minute and percentage of team stats. It literally can't be corrected for sample size, which is its biggest flaw. De Colo was second on the team in PER for a good deal of the season.

[DAF86]

Never heard of that so if you have a link, I'm interested.

Now, I'm using PER stats on this website: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/ginobma01.html
AFAIK, they don't have some kind of bias to lower the PER of low minutes players.

I think this is the article but I got it wrong, he didn't change the formula, he used another one. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?page=PERDiem-090325

[Bruno]

I think this is the article but I got it wrong, he didn't change the formula, he used another one. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?page=PERDiem-090325

Thanks for having looked. :tu

And regarding Manu playing good or great, I don't really think we disagree. Playing good or great means nothing if you don't state what is your standard for it.
To me, Ginobili playing great would mean he is playing at a per-minute level close to the average level he had in his prime.
Now, if you use as definition for playing great, the best realistic level a player of Manu's ag,e with a similar prime level, could have then, yes, Manu is playing great. I easily take him this year over players like Vince Carter or Paul Pierce who are as old as him.

[spurraider21]

PER is a funny stat though. it will credit a steal or a block as a big bonus, but it doesn't penalize a player for getting scored on. it will credit the guy getting the assist, but not the guy creating the play and getting the hockey assist

[jeebus]

I easily take him this year over players like Vince Carter or Paul Pierce who are as old as him.
Those poor fuckers fell off a cliff after last year.

[HI-FI]

:tu to Bruno, keeping ST alive with analysis for the layman.

[Chinook]

PER is a funny stat though. it will credit a steal or a block as a big bonus, but it doesn't penalize a player for getting scored on. it will credit the guy getting the assist, but not the guy creating the play and getting the hockey assist

It's biased toward big fish in small ponds as well. It harder to get a good PER is San Antonio than it is to get one in Milwaukee for example, which is why the Sanders/Splitter debate was silly.

[DAF86]

Thanks for having looked. :tu

And regarding Manu playing good or great, I don't really think we disagree. Playing good or great means nothing if you don't state what is your standard for it.
To me, Ginobili playing great would mean he is playing at a per-minute level close to the average level he had in his prime.
Now, if you use as definition for playing great, the best realistic level a player of Manu's ag,e with a similar prime level, could have then, yes, Manu is playing great. I easily take him this year over players like Vince Carter or Paul Pierce who are as old as him.

It's obvious that Manu's role has changed, and that's a change I expected and think its good for the team. He's taking a bit of a step back and at this point of his career that's what I want to see, he can't keep having the role he had in previous years.

I was expecting this change so, with this in mind and the way he played pretty much all of last season, this level he is having right now is surpassing my expectations for him this season. He's playing above what I thought he would be playing, that's why I think he is having a great season so far.

[objective]

good work, Bruno

Here is my contribution, which I was going to make it's own thread but this is a good home for it.

Jeff Ayres poor performances in modern historical Spurs context

20 games in, what can we take from this early stage with regards to Jeff Ayres?

Well, going by the numbers, he is well on his way to challenge for the title of the WORST SPURS ROTATION BIG MAN … EVER in the modern era! (and by modern era, I’m talking about the Robinson era, from 89-90 onwards, about 25 years at season’s end, I’m not researching back further than that).

What do I mean by rotation? Not 6th man or anything like that, but a deep rotation player. Ayres has played 19 out of 20 games, about 95% of contests. 11.8 mpg. To me, that’s a rotation player, not in your 8 man group, but skirting around your 10 man. Ayres has already played 224 minutes (his career high for minutes is 405), and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t top at least 500 minutes even if Pop decides to give Baynes and Thomas ample opportunities (which he might after the Raptors game, but there’s a good chance he won’t). Heck, he could easily finish with 700+ minutes at season’s end.

Sure, he fails the eyeball test. But what about the advanced metric test, using everybody’s favorite flawed stat, the PER?

At 20 games this season, his PER is 5.2

For Spurs big men, Ayres’ start to this season is among the worst. So, the competitors with PERs under 7.0:

Carl Herrera in 95-96. His PER was a ghastly 4.7 Only played 393 minutes over 44 games at 8.9 mpg. Not exactly rotation, but he was also always hurt as I remember, so maybe he was right there with Ayres. Ayres has though played over half the minutes Herrera did with three quarters of the season left, but let’s just count Carl.

Danny Ferry’s old man game in 02-03, played in 78% of Spurs games, averaging 9.4 minutes a game, 601 total minutes, and a PER of 5.1. Pretty awful. But only playing 64 out of 82 games for under 10 minutes a game, looks like Ferry was even further down the rotation than Ayres.

And that’s it. Some others squeak in over 7. Caldwell Jones in his old man year with the Spurs played 72 games (12.3 mpg), he was in the rotation, notching a 7.2 PER. Cadillac Anderson in 95-96 notched 7.7 PER in 344 total minutes over 46 games. Larry Smith in 92-93 played 66 games at 12.6 mpg and notched 7.1 PER.

[ElNono]

None.

It was just another way to say that Spurs have lost against the 4 best teams they have faced and win all the other games against lesser teams.

Thanks

[Bruno]

Yep, Ayres offense is pathetic which translate into a low PER. He barely shot the ball and when he does he missed if it isn't a dunk or tip shot. He is 5/20 on jumpshots and 6/15 on layups this year. His PER isn't save by his rebounding because he is very average in that area.

And since his defense is nothing special, you can't really say his PER is misleading like it was for a player like Bruce.

[Brazil]

Bottom line Ayres sucks

[Baam]

They managed to find worse than Blair for twice the money, hilarious... Meanwhile SpursTalk was interested in Baynes when he was still playing overseas.

The starting unit has to change and as constructed it has to be Marco for Danny. It's stupid to have 3 playmakers in one unit and 3 in the other...

Also very interested in the second unit defense with Baynes in 10 games...

[Darius McCrary]

The most important thing gleaned from the OP:

We are a jumpshooting team and are most likely totally F*CKED when the playoffs start.

Good stuff Bruno, appreciate the effort. But that was definitely the overall most important insight.

[HI-FI]

Kawhi has been somewhat disappointing to me by this point, but that could be because I thought he'd be some savior. I still think he can be a great second option. As long as his knees aren't the issue, then I think he'll bring it all together.

[Darius McCrary]

Kawhi has been somewhat disappointing to me by this point, but that could be because I thought he'd be some savior. I still think he can be a great second option. As long as his knees aren't the issue, then I think he'll bring it all together.

He's fucking sucked, don't sugarcoat it. And I'm a huge Kawhi fan.

[Mouth is Bleeding]

The most important thing gleaned from the OP:

We are a jumpshooting team and are most likely totally F*CKED when the playoffs start.

Good stuff Bruno, appreciate the effort. But that was definitely the overall most important insight.

NBA has changed. Big man post up offenses favored by ppl stuck in the past would mostly get crushed by today's NBA offenses. At least by the best ones like the Heat and the Spurs. Analyses show that posting up is an inefficient way of scoring in the current game, why would the Spurs want to go back to that.

Defense is still important of course and still more important in the playoffs but that shouldn't be confused with playing slow trying to score with big men in the post. That's dated.

[Mouth is Bleeding]

Supposedly Ayres has some value playing good help D and you also hear talk about him setting good screens. If that really removes him from being horrible I don't know.

I do know I like Baynes more with Diaw on the bench unit, Ayres is just holding things back there, but mostly, and I'm guessing that's when the Spurs will seriously peak offensively and defensively and present themselves as a serious title candidate, is with Splitter playing staying more with the bench unit than currently and one of him and Timmy almost always on the floor.

[Bruno]

The most important thing gleaned from the OP:

We are a jumpshooting team and are most likely totally F*CKED when the playoffs start.

It's not because Spurs are atrocious at getting at the line it means they are a jumpshooting team.

Spurs are averaging 43.2 shots outside the paint per game (3 pointers + midrange J). The league average is 43.8 shots outside the paint per game.
On the other hand, Spurs are the 4th best team in the league in point in the paint scored with 47.3 points per game.

Saying all that, I agree with you that the inability to go the line is worrisome for the playoffs.

[rascal]

I'm pretty sure if Spurs had lost to all teams over 50% that would be the case

It's called picking and choosing numbers, ala timvp :lmao
No, it shows the spurs have their losses against the best teams in the league.

[will_spurs]

One aspect that worries me is the starting line-up issue. It's really the Spurs worst line-up short of garbage time ones. Tony's playmaking isn't where it used to be and Green is a total scrub, but it also looks like Duncan and Splitter don't play so well when paired (maybe again that was due to the fact that Duncan couldn't score anything more than 2ft away from the basket). Maybe it's going to improve, but right now it doesn't make a lot of sense. I'd really like to see Belli start over Green to see how that would work.

[racm]

One gets the feeling that the fact that defenses aren't letting Green get wide open is why the starters' team offense is dependent on Duncan's J, why they can't generate FTAs, and why Green's not shooting well.

Green getting covered on D means Parker has less room to drive, defenders are less likely to collapse into the lane, lowering the chance for TP to draw a foul.

KL's 8 FTAs are a good sign, though. Granted, against Milwaukee, but still.

[ginobilized]

You rock, Bruno
Thanks!
Are you proud of your fellow countryman Boris Diaw and his aggressive start this season?

[Chinook]

One gets the feeling that the fact that defenses aren't letting Green get wide open is why the starters' team offense is dependent on Duncan's J, why they can't generate FTAs, and why Green's not shooting well.

Green getting covered on D means Parker has less room to drive, defenders are less likely to collapse into the lane, lowering the chance for TP to draw a foul.

KL's 8 FTAs are a good sign, though. Granted, against Milwaukee, but still.

Green getting covered gives Parker more room to drive, not less. Collapsing into the lane prevents drives.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Danny Green is also worth mentioning. In 468 minutes, he went 6 times to the line. 153 players have played that much minutes this year and Green is dead last among these players in FTA/min.


Bruno, couldn't you say a big part of Green not getting many FT attempts is because he rarely attacks the rim as he doesn't have much of an in between game once you run him off the 3 point line?

Excellent write up, really appreciate the time and effort you put into this :tu

[taps]

Bruno, I sound antagonistic toward you in this post but I appreciate the discussion you've started here & the advanced metrics you present. It is a great post. The largest portion of your post is dedicated to Manu's decline. Passes the eye test to me, and has been better than last season. The best thing is his 3P shooting is back after a year and a half & no crazy shots. Plus he looks like a mobile defender again. I am a Texan so I don't have a horse in this race as to one particular player, butI find it strange you choose to focus on Manu without mentioning much Parker's dip in ppg & assists (1 less per game) :stirpot:. He is still the leader in both those categories and he's shooting 38% from 3, but, c'mon.

There is an obvious issue here in this kinda small sample size but I don't think Manu factors in that heavily. I think it's shared thing mainly b/w Duncan, Leonard, Green, & (least of all) Parker.

Random thought: damn I wish Tiago could've been healthy against Indy. West's shooting always declines when it's over a 7 footer, especially such a good mobile one like Tiago. Injuries are a part of the game though.

[Bruno]

Bruno, couldn't you say a big part of Green not getting many FT attempts is because he rarely attacks the rim as he doesn't have much of an in between game once you run him off the 3 point line?

His inability to drive to the basket is surely a big part why he doesn't get FTs. Drives is the primary way for a perimeter player to get FTs.

With their new tracking system, the NBA is now counting player drives so you cna now look at that.

Number of drives for Spurs main perimeter players (with in parenthesis number of drives per 36 minutes):
Parker: 194 (11.6)
Ginobili: 61 (4.6)
Leonard: 42 (2.6)
Belinelli: 24 (1.9)
Green: 16 (1.2)
Mills: 12 (1.3)

With as little drives than that, Green not getting to the line more is quite logical. What isn't helping him is also is inability to score fast break points (a situation where players draw fouls). He is last among Spurs perimeter players in fast break points scored per 36 minutes at 1.2.

On a side, regarding drives, 2 other Spurs players stand out:
- While all the other bigmen have less than 10 drives, Diaw has 43 drives this season which makes him the third most prolific Spurs "driver". He is at 3.4 drives per 36 minutes. Another sign of his new aggressiveness.
- In garbage time, Cory Jospeh has 27 drives. With only 113 minutes played this year, it means 8.6 drives per 36 minutes.

[Bruno]

You rock, Bruno
Thanks!
Are you proud of your fellow countryman Boris Diaw and his aggressive start this season?

Thanks. :toast

"Proud" is too strong but, yeah, I'm happy to see him doing well. Diaw is so much better and fun to watch when he isn't overly passive like he has been with Spurs in the past.

[superbigtime]

Finally an intelligent well written post around here. Thank you. Great observations. appreciate it.

[Bruno]

Bruno, I sound antagonistic toward you in this post but I appreciate the discussion you've started here & the advanced metrics you present. It is a great post. The largest portion of your post is dedicated to Manu's decline. Passes the eye test to me, and has been better than last season. The best thing is his 3P shooting is back after a year and a half & no crazy shots. Plus he looks like a mobile defender again. I am a Texan so I don't have a horse in this race as to one particular player, butI find it strange you choose to focus on Manu without mentioning much Parker's dip in ppg & assists (1 less per game) :stirpot:. He is still the leader in both those categories and he's shooting 38% from 3, but, c'mon.

I don't find the largest portion of my post is about Manu but if it's your feeling...
And the part about Manu isn't about a decline, I'm saying he is playing well. The part about Manu is about a change in his game.

Manu was one of the best guard in the NBA at getting at the line over the past decade. This year he is averaging 1.6 FTA/36 min when, for example, a 39 years old Derek Fisher is at 1.8 FTA/36 min. I find it's worth talking about it.

Regarding Parker, there isn't a lot to say. He isn't as dominant as last season but he is still playing very well. His drop in production isn't that big. He is also playing 3 minutes less per game and has been given a game off which is a result of Pop wanting to take it easy with him earlier this season after his busy summer.

[objective]

- In garbage time, Cory Jospeh has 27 drives. With only 113 minutes played this year, it means 8.6 drives per 36 minutes.

Probably because Joseph passes up a hell of a lot of open threes, even wide open threes.

[Chinook]

I'd venture that Green is taking significantly fewer two pointers this season. He hasn't been getting hit on as many cuts nor has he been shooting many twos off screens. It's not surprising he isn't getting fouled much when he takes almost no contested shots.

[DPG21920]

I find Manu's "new" game to be a non-issue. Any dip in FTA's per game has more than been offset by the number of overall drives (I am willing to bet he is driving every bit as much as last year if not more) and how amazing he has been at finishing the drives.

Meaning, whether you draw 4 fouls a game and finish drives at 55%, or draw 1 foul a game and finish drives at 74%, your net benefit/impact remains largely unchanged. The key is he is driving and the drives are resulting in points at a good level. You may argue drawing a foul is better because it puts you in the bonus and other players in foul trouble, but that is a different argument.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I find Manu's "new" game to be a non-issue. Any dip in FTA's per game has more than been offset by the number of overall drives (I am willing to bet he is driving every bit as much as last year if not more) and how amazing he has been at finishing the drives.

Meaning, whether you draw 4 fouls a game and finish drives at 55%, or draw 1 foul a game and finish drives at 74%, your net benefit/impact remains largely unchanged. The key is he is driving and the drives are resulting in points at a good level. You may argue drawing a foul is better because it puts you in the bonus and other players in foul trouble, but that is a different argument.

I agree. Opponents are still playing the pass off the ball and he has improved his midrange game. He's getting his points.

[polandprzem]

Very very good Mr Bruno :tu



U still contributes here at the top

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Nice write-up! :tu

I think the statement wins will come. The fact that the Spurs have 17 wins after 21 games, no matter what the form in which they've come, says a lot to me.

The vets, from my point of view, are trying to stay healthy. Your points about Ginobili were very good. I think Manu is not going all-out, effort-wise. He's keeping something in the tank. Timmy is too. I think these guys will open up their games when April rolls around.

[PlayNando]

when i saw random thoughts i thought it was timvp...

:depressed

[PlayNando]

Finally an intelligent well written post around here. Thank you. Great observations. appreciate it.
It takes a Frenchman to make an intelligent post, tbh! International intelligence. :tu

[jjktkk]

Thanks Bruno.

[PlayNando]

Thanks Bruno.

[weeks]

i miss the game grades honestly

[Skull-1]

It takes a Frenchman to make an intelligent post, tbh! International intelligence. :tu


Frenchmen aren't men. But they are morons, count on that. Racist jerk.

[PlayNando]

Frenchmen aren't men. But they are morons, count on that. Racist jerk.
GTFO. YOU SHIT ON BRUNO LIKE THAT, YOU WILL BE PUNISHED.

IS TONY PARKER NOT A MAN????

IS BORIS DIAW NOT A MAN?!?!?!?!

IS NANDO DE COLO NOT A MAN?!?!?!?!

GOD DAMN IT, MAN. YOU SOUND LIKE A MORON. OH, WAIT, YOU ARE ONE, TBH!!!!!!!!!!!!

[keepinitwill]

The team is looking good. It's all about the playoffs. I like how Pop is resting players and keeping the minutes down. Once we get there we will see how good this team is. We have lost to the top teams we played so far, but I think Pop is trying to hide his hand. Let those teams think they are better than us right now, but it will be different story when it counts.

[ElNono]

amazing 1/4 of the season gone by already

[DPG21920]

Obviously the starters not looking anywhere close to as good as last year plays a part, but this team is not passing the eyeball test of last year IMO. Good news is, despite the West having plenty of talented teams, there are no dominant ones. All teams have flaws despite being good and all are beatable - however, the Spurs, look much less dangerous so far this year despite the record.

[ElNono]

Obviously the starters not looking anywhere close to as good as last year plays a part, but this team is not passing the eyeball test of last year IMO. Good news is, despite the West having plenty of talented teams, there are no dominant ones. All teams have flaws despite being good and all are beatable - however, the Spurs, look much less dangerous so far this year despite the record.

I actually think the defense has been comparable to last season, especially at the beginning, when Tiago was healthy and available. Which IMO, is the key ingredient for a good playoff run, especially since the offense bogs down generally quite a bit.

[DPG21920]

Defense has been good, but I still don't trust it quite yet overall. Especially against truly talented offensive teams. The offense is worrisome too. You can't win jack in the playoffs with a starting unit that digs you holes. You can't rely on your bench all the way to a title.

There are signs that point to the Spurs still having good upside, but as of right now the team is not as dangerous as last year. Still early though.

[ElNono]

well, yeah, I agree the offense hasn't been that great, but I also think TD took a bit to get in game shape and I still think TP is coasting through certain quarters... which is fine. Danny will always be streaky, but as long as teams peg a guy on him, he's useful. Kawhi will come around. Like you said, it's still early.

[PlayNando]

Tiago = X-Factor. Tiago = MVP.

[Baam]

Defense has been good, but I still don't trust it quite yet overall. Especially against truly talented offensive teams. The offense is worrisome too. You can't win jack in the playoffs with a starting unit that digs you holes. You can't rely on your bench all the way to a title.

There are signs that point to the Spurs still having good upside, but as of right now the team is not as dangerous as last year. Still early though.

Yup nailed it, the starting unit of a team like Portland crushes ours...

Something needs to change, sooner the better, the most logical thing is to start Marco to give the starters that second playmakers they need instead of the stereotyped play we get out of that unit right now.

Then trade Green and Bonner for a SF with good defense to play behind Kawhi.

Third give Baynes the backup center position.

Something like :

Duncan Baynes
Splitter Diaw
Kawhi un-nammed SF (someone like Harkless, don't need a top shooter but has to be a good defender)
Marco Manu
TP Mills

Much more balanced than what we have right now where all the D is in the starting unit and all the offense in the second unit...

[DPG21920]

^ You don't need to do anything at the moment. Especially not something drastic. You give it more time because there are many things that point to the starting unit being capable of turning it around. Give it time, if it doesn't work make some internal changes, if that doesn't work pursue other options.

[Skull-1]

GTFO. YOU SHIT ON BRUNO LIKE THAT, YOU WILL BE PUNISHED.

IS TONY PARKER NOT A MAN????

IS BORIS DIAW NOT A MAN?!?!?!?!

IS NANDO DE COLO NOT A MAN?!?!?!?!

GOD DAMN IT, MAN. YOU SOUND LIKE A MORON. OH, WAIT, YOU ARE ONE, TBH!!!!!!!!!!!!


:lol Meltdown, per par. :lol

[monkeypunk]

^ You don't need to do anything at the moment. Especially not something drastic. You give it more time because there are many things that point to the starting unit being capable of turning it around. Give it time, if it doesn't work make some internal changes, if that doesn't work pursue other options.

This^

We're 2nd in the West and not playing well at all. We've got plenty of time and room to get better and trading our starting SG at this point is stupid.

[Baam]

^ You don't need to do anything at the moment. Especially not something drastic. You give it more time because there are many things that point to the starting unit being capable of turning it around. Give it time, if it doesn't work make some internal changes, if that doesn't work pursue other options.

The more you wait the harder it gets to involve new players in the rotation, especially with Pop...

I've seen enough to know we need a backup SF, we did since SJax left...

The bench is cute with the passing but it's pure regular season stuff, we saw them take it up the ass against OKC's bench...

[snickles]

thanks bruno. good work. i enjoyed reading it!

[Baam]

This^

We're 2nd in the West and not playing well at all. We've got plenty of time and room to get better and trading our starting SG at this point is stupid.

Having 3 SGs and only one SF is even more stupid, but Paul George, Bronbron and Durant will be thankful...

[look_at_g_shred]

The more you wait the harder it gets to involve new players in the rotation, especially with Pop...

I've seen enough to know we need a backup SF, we did since SJax left...

The bench is cute with the passing but it's pure regular season stuff, we saw them take it up the ass against OKC's bench...
Jeremy Lamb and Reggie Jackson could be a thorn in our side, but i don't think they can do it consistently come playoff time.