Let's do some analysis regarding the Spurs most/least effective lineups

[SpursFan86]

http://www.82games.com/1314/1314SAS2.HTM

Those are the twenty most-used five-man lineups for the Spurs this year. I'll break it down for those who might not be familiar with these sort of metrics (and keep in mind, there's a legend at the bottom that gives explanations as well):

The most-used: Parker/Green/Leonard/Duncan Splitter - Surprise! Our traditional starting lineup is our most-used lineup. Also to no surprise, however, is the fact that this lineup hasn't been our most effective one this year. While the defense with this lineup is great (giving up .94 points per possession), the offense is putrid, only scoring .92 points per possession. The Spurs have a pace of 94.9, meaning we average about 95 possessions per game. So with this lineup, we'd average about 87.4 points per game (.92 * 95, for those who aren't following along). Again, any of us could've said the starting lineup struggles offensively...but these numbers show just how bad it is.

The best: Parker/Green/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan - I've been saying this should be our starting lineup for a while now, and the numbers back it up. This lineup only allows .79 points per possession...which comes out to giving up about 75 points per game. That's insanely good. It's also way better offensively than our original starting lineup.

The bench: Mills/Ginobili/Belinelli/Diaw/Ayres - Again, the numbers are just proving what we already thought: our bench is really, really good offensively. They score 1.22 points per possession, which works out to over 115 points per game. What surprised me a bit, though, is how the defense with this lineup is only slightly worse than the defense in the starting lineup.

Offensive firepower: Parker/Ginobili/Belinelli/Diaw/Duncan - This is our best offensive lineup out of all lineups who have played at least 30 minutes this year. It's also one of our worst lineups defensively, however, giving up 1.25 points per possession, and 118+ point per game. Who would've thought a lineup featuring Parker/Ginobili/Belinelli would be so bad defensively?:lol

The crunch-time lineup: Parker/Ginobili/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan - Same as our best lineup, but swap out Green for Ginobili. This shows how big of an impact Green has defensively...this is the same lineup from above that allowed .79 points per possession, however with Ginobili instead of Green it now allows 1.08 points per possession (102.6 points per game). However, it's noticeably better offensively, and Ginobili's clutch factor is why I say this should be our lineup in big moments near the end of close games.

Duncan/Splitter pairing: In all three lineups where Duncan and Splitter are on the floor together, the offense scores less than 1 point per possession. Pop needs to realize this combination is not working this year.

The worst: Parker/Ginobili/Leonard/Duncan/Splitter - Coming into this year, we might've hypothesized this being our best lineup...this year, it's been the opposite. It's our worst offensive lineup, scoring only .91 points per possession (86.45 points per game). It's not great defensively either.

Things to take away:

1) Diaw/Duncan pairing is far more effective than the Duncan/Splitter pairing. The sooner our staff realizes this, the better. Diaw should start, and Splitter should come off the bench.

2) Green's impact shouldn't be understated. While he's been painfully mediocre on offense this year, he has a much bigger impact on defense than most of us realize.

3) Ginobili, as always, is our spark on offense. Practically every lineup he's in (excluding the ones where Duncan/Splitter are also on the court with him) is fantastic offensively. Hate on him all you want, but there aren't many people who can have such a positive impact on an offense. Especially not at his age.

[313]

:toast

[silverblackfan]

Nice analysis. Thanks. I never really saw some of those line up characteristics, but will probably be watching for them now. It is strange that Splitter is only in the most-used line up.

[Baam]

I'm the biggest Boris homer around but the defensive numbers of the "best unit" (I think it's the best as well : TP Green KY Bobo TD) are inflated by the teams they played against, Boris mainly started against a face up bigs, he also had a start vs Carmelo...

But in the POs there'll mostly be face up bigs like Ibaka, Terrence Jones, Aldridge, Dirk, Channing Frye so to me it's the clear answer, especially with the way it allows TP and Kawhi to play on O...

However seeing the drop off from Green to Manu and with the third guard right now being Beli it's screams achille heel... The perimeter D can only be so good with so many under average defensive players...

Keeping Splitter is a legit option if you're confident of beating the small teams... But the thing is we'll have to beat the smaller teams for sure while the only great "big" team is in the other conference and has to beat the two time champs to get to us...

[apalisoc_9]

I'm not surprised tbh.

Splitter and Duncan together just doesn't work this year because timmy plays alot inside which really kills the offense..It kills leonard.

LMAO all the Green haters AKA beli nuthuggers :lmao

[SpursFan86]

I'm the biggest Boris homer around but the defensive numbers of the "best unit" (I think it's the best as well : TP Green KY Bobo TD) are inflated by the teams they played against, Boris mainly started against a face up bigs, he also had a start vs Carmelo..

I meant to include a disclaimer at the end. I'll just say it now though:

As with all statistics, there are always external factors that can influence the numbers and make someone/something look better or worse than it actually is. However, we're now almost halfway through the season, so I feel these numbers are pretty good indicators of how effective certain lineups are. Are they perfect indicators? Of course not. But when used along with the "eye-test" (watching the games yourself), they can be a great tool to determine just how good or bad these lineups are.

[BillMc]

Very nice analysis. Thanks!:toast

[look_at_g_shred]

Props man! And thanks too!

[freetiago]

If Duncan rediscovers the midrange shot again then the Splitter/Duncan pairing would overall be the best lineup in most situations
at this point he maybe makes what seems like 1 midrange a game on average compared to being automatic last year

the numbers show
2013 season: 42.3%
2014: 34.9%

league average is about 40% from midrange

[look_at_g_shred]

^ ouch

[EVAY]

Thanks for both the write-up and the analysis. Lots of good thought in there.

A couple of observations: Diaw is part of the best scoring and defensive units, so that means something is gonna have to give there or he is gonna be on the court at all times. I agree that his presence helps us offensively with the traditional line-up sans Splitter because he spaces the floor so much better.

I have been wondering if this is true or not, but it seems to me that the spacing in the traditional unit on offense this season is part of why they have been less effective. But I don't know why we are so bad at the spacing with that unit.

The unit with Manu and Belli and Diaw is so great offensively, in part, because they tend to be playing the second unit of other teams, so the defensive starters on the other team are not on the floor as much. Additionally, that offensive unit under Manu plays much faster than the first unit, which I think is a function of Tim not being on the floor. I love him and sometimes he runs, but the fact is that more slow-down plays are called with the first unit than with any other one.

I still don't understand why our pick and roll defense is so bad when our guards get picked off. I mean there are plenty of times that another team's bigs set a really good screen on one of our guards, disallowing our defender to go over the screen. But when that happens, our bigs just back up and back up toward the basket, literally inviting a midrange jumper over them before our guard(s) can get back in place. The only big of ours who really does a good job of defending in that situation is Boris, who switches to the other teams' guard until our guard can get back in position, and then gets back to his own man. Maybe it works better for him because he tends to be on the court with bigs from other teams who don't camp out in the paint, but it is really noticeable of late. And we know that the guys out there are doing what Pop tells them to do or they wouldn't be out there, but it just seems that we give up every midrange jumper in the world off the pick and roll, and lots of teams have gotten pretty darn good at hitting them!

[Raven]

so what you're saying is that playing belinelli instead of green throws an atomic bomb in the defence, despite beli playing against shitty competition? Who would have thought.

[will_spurs]

As many have mentioned, it's important to take into account the strength of the opposing line-up. Duncan-Splitter doesn't work so well offensively because Timmy can't hit the side of a barn from midrange, which means they both have the same and only offensive option: being under the basket. And there's only space for one.

Also, nice Manu fan cap you have there. Manu is supposedly in all the best offensive line-ups... except he's also in the worst offensive line-up of all :) As for his clutch ability, maybe you're referring to 2005? :D I wish you had given the numbers instead of "it's noticeably better offensively". In the end Manu isn't part of the Spurs best line-up, and that's despite coming off the bench, but all his line-ups tend to be quite bad defensively.

[spurraider21]

great write up dude. thanks :tu

[Baam]

An interesting article about the lineups of the team we have to beat in the west :

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/65386/killer-lineup-okcs-jackson-five


"Killer Lineup" is a recurring feature that highlights the workings of one of the NBA's most efficient five-man units. Today, we look at the Oklahoma City Thunder's starters without Russell Westbrook.

http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nba/med/trans/okc.gifLineup: Reggie Jackson, Thabo Sefolosha, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins
Minutes Played: 556
Offensive Rating: 100.9 points per 100 possessions
Defensive Rating: 92.0 points per 100 possessions


People who laughed at Reggie Jackson may reconsider... This lineup is scary, they have great defenders at every position...

And we on the other hand have TP-Gino-Beli in the backcourt :depressed.

[SpursFan86]

As many have mentioned, it's important to take into account the strength of the opposing line-up. Duncan-Splitter doesn't work so well offensively because Timmy can't hit the side of a barn from midrange, which means they both have the same and only offensive option: being under the basket. And there's only space for one.

Also, nice Manu fan cap you have there. Manu is supposedly in all the best offensive line-ups... except he's also in the worst offensive line-up of all :) As for his clutch ability, maybe you're referring to 2005? :D I wish you had given the numbers instead of "it's noticeably better offensively". In the end Manu isn't part of the Spurs best line-up, and that's despite coming off the bench, but all his line-ups tend to be quite bad defensively.

You (and freetiago) have a good point in Duncan's struggles from mid-range are likely a big part of why the Duncan/Splitter pairing hasn't worked well this year. Last year we had the exact same most-used lineup, except they scored 1.08 points per possession. Kawhi's long-range struggles are also a likely cause of the decrease in offensive efficiency as well. My post wasn't meant to be taken as "Splitter is the reason the offense sucks!"...just pointing out that Duncan and Splitter haven't worked well at all this year. Whether we should stick it out and wait to see if Duncan can get his mid-range game back or just immediately demote Splitter to the bench is the main question here...as the season goes on, we'll likely find out the answer. I personally believe Splitter will work better on the bench because he gives the bench a legitimate rim protector. The one "weakness" of our bench is that they aren't great defensively, and replacing Ayres with Splitter will help that IMO.

As for my statement about the "crunch-time" lineup being noticeably better offensively than the "best" lineup...here are the actual numbers:

Parker/Green/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan - 1.11 points per possession (105.45 points per game given the pace the Spurs play at)

Parker/Ginobili/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan - 1.21 points per possession (114.95 points per game)

So switching out Green for Ginobili results in a noticeable positive impact offensively.

I specifically mentioned that Manu's lineups were good offensively, excluding the ones where he's also playing with Splitter/Duncan. All of the Duncan/Splitter lineups are piss-poor offensively, even the ones with Belinelli and Green instead of Ginobili. I'm not some blind Manu homer...I'll readily admit his faults. He's not a good defender, especially not in comparison to Green. But I DO think he's a tremendous boost to our offense, and I still feel more comfortable with him playing at the end of games compared to Green.

[Spanklin]

The best: Parker/Green/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan - I've been saying this should be our starting lineup for a while now, and the numbers back it up. This lineup only allows .79 points per possession...which comes out to giving up about 75 points per game. That's insanely good. It's also way better offensively than our original starting lineup.

LOL If that's are best lineup in the playoffs we're screwed. It's worked in 60 short minutes because teams aren't scouting Boris for the duck in post and are over guarding him like he's Splitter. They'll catch on and purposefully change defenses when Boris-Timmy are in. Simple switch, simple kill.


I love how people like OP find a stat that supports their pre-determined eye test and says "lookie lookie see I told you so" without adding any basic bball analysis.

[look_at_g_shred]

LOL If that's are best lineup in the playoffs we're screwed. It's worked in 60 short minutes because teams aren't scouting Boris for the duck in post and are over guarding him like he's Splitter. They'll catch on and purposefully change defenses when Boris-Timmy are in. Simple switch, simple kill.


I love how people like OP find a stat that supports their pre-determined eye test and says "lookie lookie see I told you so" without adding any basic bball analysis.

I meant to include a disclaimer at the end. I'll just say it now though:

As with all statistics, there are always external factors that can influence the numbers and make someone/something look better or worse than it actually is. However, we're now almost halfway through the season, so I feel these numbers are pretty good indicators of how effective certain lineups are. Are they perfect indicators? Of course not. But when used along with the "eye-test" (watching the games yourself), they can be a great tool to determine just how good or bad these lineups are.

[SpursFan86]

LOL If that's are best lineup in the playoffs we're screwed. It's worked in 60 short minutes because teams aren't scouting Boris for the duck in post and are over guarding him like he's Splitter. They'll catch on and purposefully change defenses when Boris-Timmy are in. Simple switch, simple kill.


I love how people like OP find a stat that supports their pre-determined eye test and says "lookie lookie see I told you so" without adding any basic bball analysis.

As of now, with Duncan struggling from mid-range and Kawhi being less effective on the perimeter, the Diaw/Duncan pairing is working better. Diaw also is better for small-ball, which many elite teams use quite a bit. Diaw is better at switching on to guards if need-be in PnR situations, and can stick with some of the quicker PFs where Splitter struggles. I really don't see the huge outrage over saying Diaw should start over Splitter considering how Leonard/Duncan have been playing this year. I also brought up earlier how moving Splitter to the bench would likely improve the bench's defense. Ayres and Diaw aren't legitimate rim protectors like Splitter.

What would you propose our starting lineup be, since apparently my ideas are lacking "basic bball analysis"?

[look_at_g_shred]

As with all stats you can throw them out the window come playoff time.

[jsandiego]

Any chance at playoff success would require Duncan to find his mid-range J again, wouldn't we all agree? If that's the case, the Splitter/Duncan combo would be just fine.

The great part about having both Splitter AND Diaw, is it makes us flexible to play against different types of opponents/matchups. Like if we met Dallas in the Playoffs, Boris would probably see a lot of Dirk so Duncan/Splitter didn't have to guard him. But in the Finals against the Heat last year, Splitter was largely ineffective, probably because they didn't have a big for him to guard.

We all know Splitter's done an awesome job protecting the rim this year. Duncan finding his J again makes our offense lethal.

[Spanklin]

As of now, with Duncan struggling from mid-range and Kawhi being less effective on the perimeter, the Diaw/Duncan pairing is working better. Diaw also is better for small-ball, which many elite teams use quite a bit. Diaw is better at switching on to guards if need-be in PnR situations, and can stick with some of the quicker PFs where Splitter struggles. I really don't see the huge outrage over saying Diaw should start over Splitter considering how Leonard/Duncan have been playing this year. I also brought up earlier how moving Splitter to the bench would likely improve the bench's defense. Ayres and Diaw aren't legitimate rim protectors like Splitter.

What would you propose our starting lineup be, since apparently my ideas are lacking "basic bball analysis"?

Definitely the lineup you chose. All I'm saying is if Boris-Duncan is our top dog then we're not going anywhere in the West. Memphis will crush us, GSW will maul us..... We need luck to be on our side so Duncan-Splitter can play well again.

[SpursFan86]

What a coincidence...PtR just put out an article about this same stuff:

http://www.poundingtherock.com/2014/1/17/5319108/spurs-lineups-units-analysis-gregg-popovich

[snickles]

thanks OP, and everyone for their input. i guess deep down im just a stats geek.

[cjw]

However seeing the drop off from Green to Manu and with the third guard right now being Beli it's screams achille heel... The perimeter D can only be so good with so many under average defensive players...

Come the playoffs, Green and Leonard will have to essentially go minute-for-minute with certain stud offensive guys out there. Green on Harden, Curry, Westbrook, CP3 - luckily the latter two have a guy Parker can slouch off on usually, though his D isn't awful. Leonard on Harden, Thompson, Durant. We'll see how the Portland matchup goes ...

Boris is nowhere near the level of the other two, but plays plus D on 3s and bigger and his versatility is important. Splitter's D has been hurt when on the floor with Duncan because neither can guard a stretch 4; weird how the script has been completely flipped this year.

[Chinook]

Wasnt PtR the same site that argued for Ayres being the backup three?

[wildchild]

Really nice SpursFan86 ! Thanks!

Best lineup of season:

Parker - Green - Leonard - Diaw - Duncan
Minutes played together: 61
Offensive rating: 109.5
Defensive rating: 76.2
Net rating: +33.3
Shooting percentage: 60%

Most-used lineup vs Blazer (2nd half)

Parker - Belinelli - Ginobili - Diaw - Duncan
Minutes played together: 51
Offensive rating: 127.8
Defensive rating: 123.9
Net rating: +3.9
Shooting percentage: 65.2%

:depressed

[apalisoc_9]

What a coincidence...PtR just put out an article about this same stuff:

http://www.poundingtherock.com/2014/1/17/5319108/spurs-lineups-units-analysis-gregg-popovich

People steal stuff from spurstalk.

One of Timvps work got plagiarized by a writer from ESPN..

I wouldn't be surprised if someone read your thread and decided to write about it.

[itzsoweezee]

Great post. People really don't understand how good of a defender Green is. He is easily the best defensive player on this team, and one of the best in the league. He and Diaw need to start, with Marco and Tiago coming off the bench.