Bruno
01-18-2014, 06:06 PM
31-9 after 40 games, on pace to win 63 or 64 games but I have a hard time getting overly excited about this year Spurs team. Maybe its because of the lack of wins against contenders, maybe it's still last year hangover or maybe it's because of my worried nature, but I'm not that optimistic of this year outcome.
Offense is getting better, defense is getting worse:
After 40 games played, Spurs are the 3rd best offensive team with a OffRtg of 108.0 and the 4th best defensive team with a DefRtg of 99.4.
It may sound like Spurs are a very good team on both end of the floor but, behind these numbers, there is a huge discrepancy:
First 20 games: OffRtg: 106.0; DefRtg: 95.9
Last 20 games: OffRtg: 109.9; DefRtg: 103.3
The defensive drop is especially big. Spurs were the 2nd best defensive team in the first 20 games and were 8th in the last 20 games.
Why is the defense getting worse?
Over the last 20 games, the 3 worst DefRtg for Spurs players are: Ginobili with 108.4, Duncan with 107.1 and 105.5. When they are all 3 on the court at the same time (204 minutes), their DefRtg is on astounding 120.8. In other words, the worst defensive trio in the NBA over the last 20 games is Ginobili/Duncan/Parker.
While one could easily put that on their ages or not being in their best shape, the true reason being these awful numbers is likely that they are taking it easy. At the same time that they have awful defensive numbers, their offensive numbers are great: all 3 have an OffRtg above 113 and when they they are together on the court, the OffRtg is 125.1 which makes them the best offensive trio in the league. What seems likely is when they see the ability they have to score points, they aren't putting the necessary effort on the other end of the court. Ginobili, Duncan and Parker coasting defensively isn't that big of an issue at that stage of the season but they will need to step up after the ASG.
Another issue of these 20 last games is the 3 point defense. In that stretch, Spurs are the second worst team in that area at 38.9% 3P% allowed. They are still not a lot of 3's per game (7.1) but it isn't good.
For the rest of the defense (rebounding, protecting the rim...), Spurs have gone for great to good. I hope that after the ASG, with Green and Splitter back, Parker/Ginobili/Duncan trying more, Spurs could be back at the level they had in the first 20 games. They just don't have a player dominant enough offensively to go far in the playoffs without a good defense.
And they said they were too old...
Since December:
Tim Duncan: 16.1ppg (.462 FG%), 11.2rpg, 3.1apg and 2.0bpg in 30.3mpg
Manu Ginobili: 15.3ppg (.476 FG%, .3913P%), 4.7apg in 24.6mpg
While they weren't that great in November, Tim and Manu have really raised their level since that. Their defense hasn't been very good but they are just producing stat-wise at an amazing level given their age.
If you're not convince by how rare it is, just follow that link: http://bkref.com/tiny/XBRLc
Spurs depth and pop sharing the minutes:
Pop has been very cautious about playing time these past years and it's still the case this season. Parker led Spurs with 1164 minutes played but is only 74th in minutes played this season among NBA players. Pop is really spreading playing time with 7 players between 830 and 1161 minutes played.
What is relatively new however is how great Spurs depth has been. Spurs really have 9 quality players in Parker, Mills, Belinelli, Ginobili, Green, Leonard, Diaw, Splitter and Duncan. Among these 9 players, 8 have a PER above the league average of 15. Green is below average but as a perimeter defender, his contribution doesn't really shine PER-wise.
Even Ayres hasn't been that bad lately. In the last 20 games, he leads Spurs in +/- with a NEtRtg of 14.7. That's his big difference with DeJuan Blair: he doesn't hurt the team.
Finding the right starting lineup:
Pop seems to hesitate on his starting lineup this year. So here are the OffRtg/DefRtg for the main options:
Parker/Green/Leonard/Duncan/Splitter: 91.4/92.2 (137 min)
Parker/Belinelli/Leonard/Duncan/Splitter: 95.1/91.0 (102 min)
Parker/Belinelli/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan: 108.7/118.8 (62 min)
Parker/Green/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan: 109.5/76.2 (61 min)
While the sample size is way too small to draw some kind of conclusions, early results hints that starting Green would be the right move.
What stats show more conclusively is how bad the Leonard/Duncan/Splitter combo is offensively. In 321 minutes played together, their OffRtg is 92.1. The obvious way to break this trio would be to start Diaw instead of Splitter. Diaw biggest weakness is his rebounding but it would be covered by Leonard and Duncan. If Diaw starts, Green seems more appropriate at SG than Belinelli since his playmaking will be less needed.
Spurs' true MVP:
Spurs are 13-0 when Nando is playing.
Offense is getting better, defense is getting worse:
After 40 games played, Spurs are the 3rd best offensive team with a OffRtg of 108.0 and the 4th best defensive team with a DefRtg of 99.4.
It may sound like Spurs are a very good team on both end of the floor but, behind these numbers, there is a huge discrepancy:
First 20 games: OffRtg: 106.0; DefRtg: 95.9
Last 20 games: OffRtg: 109.9; DefRtg: 103.3
The defensive drop is especially big. Spurs were the 2nd best defensive team in the first 20 games and were 8th in the last 20 games.
Why is the defense getting worse?
Over the last 20 games, the 3 worst DefRtg for Spurs players are: Ginobili with 108.4, Duncan with 107.1 and 105.5. When they are all 3 on the court at the same time (204 minutes), their DefRtg is on astounding 120.8. In other words, the worst defensive trio in the NBA over the last 20 games is Ginobili/Duncan/Parker.
While one could easily put that on their ages or not being in their best shape, the true reason being these awful numbers is likely that they are taking it easy. At the same time that they have awful defensive numbers, their offensive numbers are great: all 3 have an OffRtg above 113 and when they they are together on the court, the OffRtg is 125.1 which makes them the best offensive trio in the league. What seems likely is when they see the ability they have to score points, they aren't putting the necessary effort on the other end of the court. Ginobili, Duncan and Parker coasting defensively isn't that big of an issue at that stage of the season but they will need to step up after the ASG.
Another issue of these 20 last games is the 3 point defense. In that stretch, Spurs are the second worst team in that area at 38.9% 3P% allowed. They are still not a lot of 3's per game (7.1) but it isn't good.
For the rest of the defense (rebounding, protecting the rim...), Spurs have gone for great to good. I hope that after the ASG, with Green and Splitter back, Parker/Ginobili/Duncan trying more, Spurs could be back at the level they had in the first 20 games. They just don't have a player dominant enough offensively to go far in the playoffs without a good defense.
And they said they were too old...
Since December:
Tim Duncan: 16.1ppg (.462 FG%), 11.2rpg, 3.1apg and 2.0bpg in 30.3mpg
Manu Ginobili: 15.3ppg (.476 FG%, .3913P%), 4.7apg in 24.6mpg
While they weren't that great in November, Tim and Manu have really raised their level since that. Their defense hasn't been very good but they are just producing stat-wise at an amazing level given their age.
If you're not convince by how rare it is, just follow that link: http://bkref.com/tiny/XBRLc
Spurs depth and pop sharing the minutes:
Pop has been very cautious about playing time these past years and it's still the case this season. Parker led Spurs with 1164 minutes played but is only 74th in minutes played this season among NBA players. Pop is really spreading playing time with 7 players between 830 and 1161 minutes played.
What is relatively new however is how great Spurs depth has been. Spurs really have 9 quality players in Parker, Mills, Belinelli, Ginobili, Green, Leonard, Diaw, Splitter and Duncan. Among these 9 players, 8 have a PER above the league average of 15. Green is below average but as a perimeter defender, his contribution doesn't really shine PER-wise.
Even Ayres hasn't been that bad lately. In the last 20 games, he leads Spurs in +/- with a NEtRtg of 14.7. That's his big difference with DeJuan Blair: he doesn't hurt the team.
Finding the right starting lineup:
Pop seems to hesitate on his starting lineup this year. So here are the OffRtg/DefRtg for the main options:
Parker/Green/Leonard/Duncan/Splitter: 91.4/92.2 (137 min)
Parker/Belinelli/Leonard/Duncan/Splitter: 95.1/91.0 (102 min)
Parker/Belinelli/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan: 108.7/118.8 (62 min)
Parker/Green/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan: 109.5/76.2 (61 min)
While the sample size is way too small to draw some kind of conclusions, early results hints that starting Green would be the right move.
What stats show more conclusively is how bad the Leonard/Duncan/Splitter combo is offensively. In 321 minutes played together, their OffRtg is 92.1. The obvious way to break this trio would be to start Diaw instead of Splitter. Diaw biggest weakness is his rebounding but it would be covered by Leonard and Duncan. If Diaw starts, Green seems more appropriate at SG than Belinelli since his playmaking will be less needed.
Spurs' true MVP:
Spurs are 13-0 when Nando is playing.