Spursfanfromafar
02-20-2014, 10:14 AM
Did a small statistical exercise trying to find out the most improved player this year.
Methodology -
Tried to calculate improvement in WS/48 (for all players playing atleast in their third year) as follows -
Improvement = WS1314/48 - ((4*WS1213/48 + 2*WS1112/48)/6)
WS1314/48 = Winshares/48 for 2013-14 and so on.
Qualifiers -
a) Considered players who have played more than 500 minutes this season
b) Considered only those players who are more (and under 80th percentile of win shares this season. I use this to give more weight to good players this season than the slightly good ones.
b) Disregarded players who had a drastic fall in their WS/48 in year 2 (2012-13) because of injury or whatever (for e.g., Kevin Love, Michael Beasley etc).
c) Considered players who are playing in atleast their third year so as to account for rookie growth.
And here is the top 15-
Player
2013-14 WS48
2012-13 WS48
2011-12 WS48
2013-14 MP
Improv
Percentile
Goran Dragic
0.206
0.106
0.139
1735
0.0890
0.958
Andrew Bogut
0.178
0.106
0.062
1319
0.0867
0.916
Lance Stephenson
0.151
0.115
-0.031
1842
0.0847
0.828
DeMarcus Cousins
0.17
0.092
0.104
1497
0.0740
0.899
Eric Bledsoe
0.155
0.115
0.022
803
0.0710
0.849
Kyle Lowry
0.206
0.133
0.156
1955
0.0653
0.958
Patrick Mills
0.188
0.109
0.161
993
0.0617
0.937
Brook Lopez
0.215
0.191
0.091
533
0.0573
0.97
Paul George
0.203
0.145
0.148
1946
0.0570
0.949
Dirk Nowitzki
0.212
0.145
0.175
1711
0.0570
0.966
Stephen Curry
0.221
0.18
0.144
1921
0.0530
0.979
Kevin Durant
0.32
0.291
0.23
2061
0.0493
1
Chandler Parsons
0.154
0.121
0.09
1842
0.0433
0.841
J.J. Redick
0.15
0.091
0.142
863
0.0420
0.824
Brandan Wright
0.227
0.172
0.215
576
0.0407
0.983
By this metric, Patty Mills is the 7th most improved (good) player this season.
By the way, the most regressed players this season?
1) Ersan Ilyasova
2) John Lucas
3) Kevin Garnett
4) Matt Barnes
5) Luke Ridnour
Methodology -
Tried to calculate improvement in WS/48 (for all players playing atleast in their third year) as follows -
Improvement = WS1314/48 - ((4*WS1213/48 + 2*WS1112/48)/6)
WS1314/48 = Winshares/48 for 2013-14 and so on.
Qualifiers -
a) Considered players who have played more than 500 minutes this season
b) Considered only those players who are more (and under 80th percentile of win shares this season. I use this to give more weight to good players this season than the slightly good ones.
b) Disregarded players who had a drastic fall in their WS/48 in year 2 (2012-13) because of injury or whatever (for e.g., Kevin Love, Michael Beasley etc).
c) Considered players who are playing in atleast their third year so as to account for rookie growth.
And here is the top 15-
Player
2013-14 WS48
2012-13 WS48
2011-12 WS48
2013-14 MP
Improv
Percentile
Goran Dragic
0.206
0.106
0.139
1735
0.0890
0.958
Andrew Bogut
0.178
0.106
0.062
1319
0.0867
0.916
Lance Stephenson
0.151
0.115
-0.031
1842
0.0847
0.828
DeMarcus Cousins
0.17
0.092
0.104
1497
0.0740
0.899
Eric Bledsoe
0.155
0.115
0.022
803
0.0710
0.849
Kyle Lowry
0.206
0.133
0.156
1955
0.0653
0.958
Patrick Mills
0.188
0.109
0.161
993
0.0617
0.937
Brook Lopez
0.215
0.191
0.091
533
0.0573
0.97
Paul George
0.203
0.145
0.148
1946
0.0570
0.949
Dirk Nowitzki
0.212
0.145
0.175
1711
0.0570
0.966
Stephen Curry
0.221
0.18
0.144
1921
0.0530
0.979
Kevin Durant
0.32
0.291
0.23
2061
0.0493
1
Chandler Parsons
0.154
0.121
0.09
1842
0.0433
0.841
J.J. Redick
0.15
0.091
0.142
863
0.0420
0.824
Brandan Wright
0.227
0.172
0.215
576
0.0407
0.983
By this metric, Patty Mills is the 7th most improved (good) player this season.
By the way, the most regressed players this season?
1) Ersan Ilyasova
2) John Lucas
3) Kevin Garnett
4) Matt Barnes
5) Luke Ridnour