Starters shaking off rocky start has been key to the recent win streak tbh...

[freetiago]

The team started out winning a lot of games but it was usually the starters digging the team in a whole with the bench coming in to save the day
In the Spurs first 16 games in the season they held 15 out of 16 opponents under 100 points a game and were the 2nd best defensive team in the NBA behind the Pacers and they had a 14-2 record with losses coming to Portland and OKC (the defense failed them in these 2 games with Portland being the team to break 100 vs the Spurs)
but clearly something was wrong with the starters as they just weren't as effective as last year

but there have been a few changes that have returned the Spurs to an elite status team that is capable of beating the league's elite

a few problems that plagued the starters though in the beginning of the season though
-Parker's fatigue
-Duncan's extremely slow start and lack of midrange game
-Leonard being a passive sub 30% 3 point shooter
-Green adjusting to his newfound attention after his finals performance and being a sub 40% 3 point shooter
-Splitter just not being as effective as he was his 2nd and 3rd seasons

Here are the numbers on how the starting lineup has performed in the 10 game win streak
DefRtg OffRtg
Parker 97.8 111.5
Green 90.1 108.9
Leonard 94.7 112.5
Duncan 94.2 111.6
Splitter 92.1 116.2

Just to show where these numbers stand next to the rest of the league
-Indiana is the #1 defensive team in the NBA holding teams to 95.6 points per 100
-Miami is the #1 offensive team scoring 109.8 points per 100

basically the starting lineup defends at a pace that would be the #1 defensive rate in the NBA but they also score at a rate that would be the #1 offensive rate in the NBA

The problems that plagued the starters seemed to have disappeared with a few key things being
-Leonards new found aggressiveness and improved 3 point shooting (my other thread addresses this tbh)
-Green is shooting 51% from 3 on 4.7 attempts per game (last season was 43% on 5.2 attempts per game)
-Parker is looking better than he has the whole season but he's clearly still not 100% to me
-Splitter somehow has the highest offensive rating and highest NetRtg of 24, lets all take a moment to thank Tiago for being the most underrated and least appreciated player in Spurs history tbh...

There is one thing though that is somewhat concerning that can be a problem come playoff time
http://i59.tinypic.com/70gpjl.png

This team is highly dependent on Tim's midrange shot as a bailout play and a few teams are able to force the Spurs into taking a lot of midrange jumpshots
specifically OKC and Houston and suprisingly in last year's playoffs Golden State did an extremely good job of forcing a high volume of mid range shots

As you can see Duncan is only shooting 10% in his favorite pick and pop spot on the floor and the season trend of his shot being broken isn't encouraging
but as we heard in the telecast by Sean Elliott, Duncan has been putting in a lot of work recently on his midrange game and it looked good in the game vs the Jazz
but this could be encouraging in a few ways in that Duncan is unlikely to be shooting 25.5% from midrange and 10% from his favorite spot and he's Tim Duncan tbh... the guy we should be worried the least about
also that despite the lack of spacing he has provided the Tim-Tiago pairing has still been able to post extremely good offensive numbers with Tiago who doesn't score outside the paint somehow having the highest offensive numbers

tbh...

[313]

Good news tbh. Hopefully we can sustain it.

[ElNono]

I gather that chart is only for the 10 game win streak? There's no way he only took 20 shots from there all season long...

If it is, then it translates to 2 shots/game, and I don't think it's that big of a deal. If anything, it shows that Timmy knows what's working and what isn't.

[freetiago]

the shot chart is past 30 days which is roughly the 10 game win streak time
I'm still new to using these tools to gather data and have no idea how to find the beginning season numbers or I would have posted them to show the bad offensive numbers

and Tim will have to take mid range shots in order for SA to win
hes been getting manhandled by physically dominate centers this season (Al Jefferson/Pekovic/Jonas Valanciunas/Godfavors and more tbh) and the West has a decent amount of them
the only team he can really get away with not taking midrange shots that the Spurs would be likely to play would be Phoenix and Miami
and in the playoffs SA wont be getting all the easy 3s and cuts to the basket they normally feast off in the regular season and will have to rely more on Parker and Duncan to dominate

[ElNono]

Not sold on that. It will largely depend who we play, and how good they can play defense. I also think the Spurs can get TD in positions where he's still effective without having to be the mid-range.
His scoring numbers are only slightly below than last season and last season he was taking over 50% of his shots from midrange. So he has adjusted to his shot not being there, and still been able to remain just as effective.
Obviously, you want his shot to be there because that opens up more possibilities and makes him more dangerous, but I still think he can be effective without it.

[Mugen]

they could wheel Timmy out on a gurney come playoff time, and he'd still be the one I'd trust the most tbh.

[DPG21920]

I agree and I have been harping on this in the game threads. The need for Tim to shoot that mid-range shot is huge for this offense over the long haul. Spurs have survived it recently because 2/3rds of the problem from earlier in the year (Danny/Kawhi) have been resolved, but it's still very important. But that starting unit (TP/DG/KL/TD/TS) is so damn good when it clicks (especially offensively) but a ton hinges on TD's ability to make that 18 foot shot enough.

[freetiago]

one team I left out that he wont ahve to utilize the midrange is also Dallas since they have no centers on that squad
basically only first round matchups and possibly the Heat in the Finals
Houston and OKC are teams SA will have to go through and possibly both and Perkins does a good job of defending Duncan and Houston has the best Duncan defender in the league in Omer Asik

and playoffs are a different animal than regular season since bad defensive teams generally dont make it to the playoffs and if they do they will be gone after the first round
good defensive teams force more midrange jumpers and Tim/Tony are the primary mid range shooters on the team and options 1A/1B

The numbers I posted are encouraging since Duncan has remained effective playing next to Splitter with both of them being primary paint scorers but I dont see it staying that way longer term and in the playoffs Splitter's scoring always drops
I'd have to find a way to see how many points Duncan is scoring with Diaw playing next to him compared to Splitter to see if it works since SA will have to play the Tiago/Tim pairing vs a few teams to remain effective defensively


and heres a Zach Lower article on the Spurs vs Golden State and the midrange attempts from last year playoffs
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/a-tale-of-two-offenses-the-spurs-get-back-to-business-and-the-knicks-file-for-bankruptcy/

and for those who dont want to read the whole thing
heres the takeaway point
"Let’s start with San Antonio, since they’re at least guaranteed to be playing after tonight. The Spurs in the postseason, and specifically in this series against the Warriors, are taking a disturbingly large number of midrange shots. Nearly half of their shot attempts in the postseason so far have come from the least-profitable areas on the court — midrange, and from the floater range just outside the block/charge circle and the left-right edges of the paint. Only about 38 percent of their field goal attempts came from those spots in the regular season, per NBA.com; they’re taking 29.3 midrange jumpers per game in the playoffs, nearlynine more such shots than they averaged in the regular season. An increase in midrange shots naturally means a decrease in shots from other locations, and the cost has come mostly in the very best shots that exist — shots at the rim, and corner 3-pointers, the shot San Antonio damn near patented."

[ElNono]

I'm just going to agree to disagree about Houston. I have zero doubt playoff Duncan would take Asik to school. You want Asik on Tim, and you want to run 4-down every play until they either start sending help or switch Dwight to him. Either way, you still want Duncan posting up. Perkins is certainly a different story.

Against Houston my concern isn't with our offense lacking, but our defense. I think our defense can struggle with the Harden drive/kick out to shooters.

I do agree completely that playoffs are a different animal, and in that sense, I think you're underrating the Spurs. Especially teams like Portland, Clippers and even Houston, that will have a lot of pressure to make a deep playoff run, but are fairly inexperienced. Could they surprise? sure. Would I pick them over a healthy Spurs team? I probably would not.

[td4mvp21]

I'm just going to agree to disagree about Houston. I have zero doubt playoff Duncan would take Asik to school. You want Asik on Tim, and you want to run 4-down every play until they either start sending help or switch Dwight to him. Either way, you still want Duncan posting up. Perkins is certainly a different story.

Against Houston my concern isn't with our offense lacking, but our defense. I think our defense can struggle with the Harden drive/kick out to shooters.


Should the Spurs guard Harden the same way they guard Lebron? That may be the best option against Houston in the playoffs to stop his drive and kick game. I don't know if this makes sense statistically, and maybe I haven't watched enough Rocket games, but I don't think Harden can make the Spurs pay enough from outside if they give him space to shoot and opt to cut off penetration.

[DPG21920]

Spurs never consistently go to Duncan anymore and I can't see them calling that number in the playoffs consistently (although they should more) when Tim is being guarded by one of the best big men defenders in the league.

[Robz4000]

Should the Spurs guard Harden the same way they guard Lebron? That may be the best option against Houston in the playoffs to stop his drive and kick game. I don't know if this makes sense statistically, and maybe I haven't watched enough Rocket games, but I don't think Harden can make the Spurs pay enough from outside if they give him space to shoot and opt to cut off penetration.

Harden has a much better jumper than Lebron unfortunately; he also gets to the line at will, even against the Spurs, while Lebron doesn't (against SA). Best defense is to shut everyone else down and let Green try his luck one-on-one like they did against prime Amare.

[Seventyniner]

I can't fear Asik too much. Asik and Howard together screw the Rockets' precious spacing and they're going to play Howard 40 MPG in the playoffs. Asik + Howard allows the Spurs to play both Duncan and Splitter with impunity. I say advantage Spurs there.

[Em-City]

I'm just going to agree to disagree about Houston. I have zero doubt playoff Duncan would take Asik to school. You want Asik on Tim, and you want to run 4-down every play until they either start sending help or switch Dwight to him. Either way, you still want Duncan posting up. Perkins is certainly a different story.

Against Houston my concern isn't with our offense lacking, but our defense. I think our defense can struggle with the Harden drive/kick out to shooters.

I do agree completely that playoffs are a different animal, and in that sense, I think you're underrating the Spurs. Especially teams like Portland, Clippers and even Houston, that will have a lot of pressure to make a deep playoff run, but are fairly inexperienced. Could they surprise? sure. Would I pick them over a healthy Spurs team? I probably would not.

surely houston will play a small-ball lineup with:
beverley/lin
harden
parsons
jones
howard

rather than rolling out asik?

[SpursFan86]

Yeah...no offense, but I don't think you've watched Asik play enough if you think we should just keep dumping it down to Tim and let him try to post Asik up. Asik is an elite defender, especially in the post. Synergy has him ranked as the 5th best post-defender in the league this year, allowing a mere .54 points per possession in that aspect.

I'm not saying we should completely abandon post play against Houston, but Dwight and Asik are both elite post defenders. Going to Duncan over and over again probably won't net great results, and if anything will end up tiring him out more to where he's not as effective on the defensive end.

[cd021]

I can't fear Asik too much. Asik and Howard together screw the Rockets' precious spacing and they're going to play Howard 40 MPG in the playoffs. Asik + Howard allows the Spurs to play both Duncan and Splitter with impunity. I say advantage Spurs there.

Agree. The Spurs could also use their usual closing lineups Parker-Manu-Leonard-Diaw-Duncan. If Asik & Howard were to play together, the Spurs could use Diaw in P&R with Parker or Manu forcing Asik or Howard out of the paint. The only time Asik would likely play more than 15 minutes, is with with Howard in foul trouble. He hasn't been very impaction he has a net rating of 0.

[ElNono]

surely houston will play a small-ball lineup with:
beverley/lin
harden
parsons
jones
howard

rather than rolling out asik?

Whenever they have to match up with stronger inside teams, like ie: Utah, they do go to Asik. But they certainly prefer a more athletic game with dwight having ample space and surrounded by shooters. It's a bad matchup for us, but they have their own questions... how much to play Asik or Lin if they're stinking it up is certainly one.

[dougp]

surely houston will play a small-ball lineup with:
beverley/lin
harden
parsons
jones
howard

rather than rolling out asik?

Problem when you do this is they remove their own bench from the equation. All their guys will be running 40mpg, and their defense will suffer.

[ElNono]

Yeah...no offense, but I don't think you've watched Asik play enough if you think we should just keep dumping it down to Tim and let him try to post Asik up. Asik is an elite defender, especially in the post. Synergy has him ranked as the 5th best post-defender in the league this year, allowing a mere .54 points per possession in that aspect.

I'm not saying we should completely abandon post play against Houston, but Dwight and Asik are both elite post defenders. Going to Duncan over and over again probably won't net great results, and if anything will end up tiring him out more to where he's not as effective on the defensive end.

I'm not saying Asik sucks, I'm simply saying the Spurs will have to be successful working the low block against Houston because the way I see it we're very unlikely to win a shootout with them. Calling 4-down doesn't have to always end with Tim taking a shot. If Tim can be mildly successful, that opens up sending help, then opens up outside shooting, and all the stuff the Spurs feast on. Tiago doesn't really have a post game, so it's going to have to be Tim, and I'm way past doubting he can be effective doing it.

[ElNono]

Should the Spurs guard Harden the same way they guard Lebron? That may be the best option against Houston in the playoffs to stop his drive and kick game. I don't know if this makes sense statistically, and maybe I haven't watched enough Rocket games, but I don't think Harden can make the Spurs pay enough from outside if they give him space to shoot and opt to cut off penetration.

Harden is a tough cover for us. He's crafty driving, and he can pass. I would say he's the only guy we don't have a solid gameplan against. You can throw Green at him, but he draws fouls at a high rate, so foul trouble is going to be there. I suspect the Spurs would eventually try to make him a shooter and let him have his, but there's no obvious kryptonite against that guy as of yet.

[cd021]

Harden has a much better jumper than Lebron unfortunately; he also gets to the line at will, even against the Spurs, while Lebron doesn't (against SA). Best defense is to shut everyone else down and let Green try his luck one-on-one like they did against prime Amare.

Harden can shoot but settles quite a bit, for shots outside of the paint. His average shot attempt is from 14.5 Feet. Ginobili for examples average attempt is from 11.8 feet.


Harden is actually a mediocre, high volume, shooter from 3 this season (35% on 6.5 3ptA).40% of his total shots come from 23+ feet away. He is a good mid range shooter though, hitting roughly 42% of his shots from 10-22 feet.

Lebron on the other hand is shooting the ball better from 3 (37%) but that only accounts for 22% of his FGA. He 23 % of his shots come from 10-22 feet where is a slightly below average shooter (38%)

I agree with "Amare method" though. Green should be able to give Harden problems and Duncan and Leonard can cover Howard and Parsons effectively.