chazley
05-05-2014, 04:46 AM
Coming off an incredible series against the Mavs, who played significantly better than anyone expected, alot of Spurs fans are worried about what could happen against a team like Portland with a lot more talent and two guys who are lethal in the pick and roll (Lillard & LMA) similar to Ellis and Nowitzki. Don't fret though Spurs fans, I think there are some stuff we can exploit against the Blazers, and a guy like Belinelli could play a huge roll this series.
Damian Lillard:
http://i935.photobucket.com/albums/ad196/chazley1990/Shotchart_1399280458154_zpsb3f54fee.png
Lillard has proven himself to be one the best long-range shooters in the league. Through his first two seasons, he set an NBA-record for most 3-pt FG made and attempted. He shoots them often and converts them at a high rate. You've got to chase him off the line and rely on your backend defense against him. He is not a great finisher, in fact he is below the league average. So anytime you can chase him to the rim and let Tim contest his shot it is a good possession for the Spurs.
Defensively, you have to attack him with confusing sets and lots of screens and backdoor cuts. He doesn't read this stuff well and the Spurs will get some easy stuff off of Lillard throughout the series. Expect to see alot of Danny Green running through multiple screens and making Lillard work early and often.
Wesley Matthews:
http://i935.photobucket.com/albums/ad196/chazley1990/Shotchart_1399280891093_zps69f060c7.png
Matthews is a fantastic player who is undoubtedly the Spurs biggest matchup problem. The first inclination is to put Parker on him, but Matthews is a 2-guard who can murder smaller guards in the post. Posting up is something defenses will give up because they are generally low-efficiency. The Spurs may just have to concede this in order to let Danny stick on Lillard, and I'm sure we'll see Kawhi guard him for stretches, but this will likely be a situation where Parker is just gonna have to do his best in the post vs Matthews.
Defensively, Matthews will likely guard Kawhi or Tony. I suspect we will see him on Tony early on. Tony should be able to exploit this, as Matthews is more of a bullish defender than a quick one.
Nicolas Batum:
http://i935.photobucket.com/albums/ad196/chazley1990/Shotchart_1399281596159_zpsbd09c53a.png
Batum is a great defensive player and a good offensive player. Kawhi will likely be guarding him. I really like this matchup for the Spurs defensively because Batum is the guy you help off of if you are on the perimeter, and Kawhi is great at getting his hands in passing lanes. Batum isn't gonna kill you from three. What you don't want is him getting to the rim, where he's one of the best in the league around the basket. You give him a little space on the perimeter and let him try to do too much. That is a good defensive possession.
Defensively Batum is a different beast. He is gonna be on Tony for long stretches of the game and for sure in the fourth quarter. Tony has traditionally been bothered by long, athletic guys and that's exactly what Batum is. This is a series where our 'others' are gonna have to carry the load offensively because Batum is a shutdown defender. Manu especially will have to be big.
Lamarcus Aldridge:
http://i935.photobucket.com/albums/ad196/chazley1990/Shotchart_1399282052996_zpsa58b4545.png
I feel that we match up very well with LMA. Splitter had an absolutely incredible series against Dirk, who is the perfect warm-up for a guy like Aldridge. Bonus: he doesn't have 3 point range. He's one of the league's best from midrange, everyone knows that. However, any possession the Blazers have that ends with LMA taking at least a semi-contested midrange shot is a great defensive possession for the Spurs. I think doubling LMA is a huge mistake, even if he gets really hot. He's not great going to the rim, so he's not going to burn you like that. This team feeds off of what LMA creates off his midrange game. Don't leave their shooters open, and let Aldridge try to play hero ball. The Rockets figured this out by putting Asik on him, and LMA didn't have a great series after the first two games.
Defensively, LMA will be switching between Splitter and Duncan. He's actually a good defender, so I don't see many ways that the Spurs will be trying to exploit him.
Robin Lopez:
http://i935.photobucket.com/albums/ad196/chazley1990/Shotchart_1399282814969_zpsc6c539f9.png
This is the guy you absolutely don't have to worry about. You are free to double off of Lopez, just don't leave him wide open. Otherwise, you are ecstatic everytime Robin shoots the ball. You must put a body on him every time the Blazers shoot, he's one of the best offensive rebounders in the league.
Defensively, Robin Lopez is a stud rim protector and low-post defender. He rebounds very well and alters alot of shots. Timmy could run into some trouble vs. Lopez in the low block but you've still gotta dump the ball to Tim and try to pick up some easy fouls on Lopez, because once he is out of the game their defense becomes abysmal.
I think this series, we are going to see alot of big games from guys like Belinelli, Green, and Manu. Basically, whoever Lillard is guarding. Kawhi will have to do a much better job in the post if the Blazers decide to hide him on Kawhi, because you absolutely have to pick on him. This will be an exciting series, both teams are very evenly matched. We are in for another dogfight.
Spurs in 7.
Damian Lillard:
http://i935.photobucket.com/albums/ad196/chazley1990/Shotchart_1399280458154_zpsb3f54fee.png
Lillard has proven himself to be one the best long-range shooters in the league. Through his first two seasons, he set an NBA-record for most 3-pt FG made and attempted. He shoots them often and converts them at a high rate. You've got to chase him off the line and rely on your backend defense against him. He is not a great finisher, in fact he is below the league average. So anytime you can chase him to the rim and let Tim contest his shot it is a good possession for the Spurs.
Defensively, you have to attack him with confusing sets and lots of screens and backdoor cuts. He doesn't read this stuff well and the Spurs will get some easy stuff off of Lillard throughout the series. Expect to see alot of Danny Green running through multiple screens and making Lillard work early and often.
Wesley Matthews:
http://i935.photobucket.com/albums/ad196/chazley1990/Shotchart_1399280891093_zps69f060c7.png
Matthews is a fantastic player who is undoubtedly the Spurs biggest matchup problem. The first inclination is to put Parker on him, but Matthews is a 2-guard who can murder smaller guards in the post. Posting up is something defenses will give up because they are generally low-efficiency. The Spurs may just have to concede this in order to let Danny stick on Lillard, and I'm sure we'll see Kawhi guard him for stretches, but this will likely be a situation where Parker is just gonna have to do his best in the post vs Matthews.
Defensively, Matthews will likely guard Kawhi or Tony. I suspect we will see him on Tony early on. Tony should be able to exploit this, as Matthews is more of a bullish defender than a quick one.
Nicolas Batum:
http://i935.photobucket.com/albums/ad196/chazley1990/Shotchart_1399281596159_zpsbd09c53a.png
Batum is a great defensive player and a good offensive player. Kawhi will likely be guarding him. I really like this matchup for the Spurs defensively because Batum is the guy you help off of if you are on the perimeter, and Kawhi is great at getting his hands in passing lanes. Batum isn't gonna kill you from three. What you don't want is him getting to the rim, where he's one of the best in the league around the basket. You give him a little space on the perimeter and let him try to do too much. That is a good defensive possession.
Defensively Batum is a different beast. He is gonna be on Tony for long stretches of the game and for sure in the fourth quarter. Tony has traditionally been bothered by long, athletic guys and that's exactly what Batum is. This is a series where our 'others' are gonna have to carry the load offensively because Batum is a shutdown defender. Manu especially will have to be big.
Lamarcus Aldridge:
http://i935.photobucket.com/albums/ad196/chazley1990/Shotchart_1399282052996_zpsa58b4545.png
I feel that we match up very well with LMA. Splitter had an absolutely incredible series against Dirk, who is the perfect warm-up for a guy like Aldridge. Bonus: he doesn't have 3 point range. He's one of the league's best from midrange, everyone knows that. However, any possession the Blazers have that ends with LMA taking at least a semi-contested midrange shot is a great defensive possession for the Spurs. I think doubling LMA is a huge mistake, even if he gets really hot. He's not great going to the rim, so he's not going to burn you like that. This team feeds off of what LMA creates off his midrange game. Don't leave their shooters open, and let Aldridge try to play hero ball. The Rockets figured this out by putting Asik on him, and LMA didn't have a great series after the first two games.
Defensively, LMA will be switching between Splitter and Duncan. He's actually a good defender, so I don't see many ways that the Spurs will be trying to exploit him.
Robin Lopez:
http://i935.photobucket.com/albums/ad196/chazley1990/Shotchart_1399282814969_zpsc6c539f9.png
This is the guy you absolutely don't have to worry about. You are free to double off of Lopez, just don't leave him wide open. Otherwise, you are ecstatic everytime Robin shoots the ball. You must put a body on him every time the Blazers shoot, he's one of the best offensive rebounders in the league.
Defensively, Robin Lopez is a stud rim protector and low-post defender. He rebounds very well and alters alot of shots. Timmy could run into some trouble vs. Lopez in the low block but you've still gotta dump the ball to Tim and try to pick up some easy fouls on Lopez, because once he is out of the game their defense becomes abysmal.
I think this series, we are going to see alot of big games from guys like Belinelli, Green, and Manu. Basically, whoever Lillard is guarding. Kawhi will have to do a much better job in the post if the Blazers decide to hide him on Kawhi, because you absolutely have to pick on him. This will be an exciting series, both teams are very evenly matched. We are in for another dogfight.
Spurs in 7.