Series Preview: Top 5 Reasons Why the Spurs Will Beat the Blazers

[Uriel]

Many Spurs fans who are pessimistic about the Spurs' chances heading into the series reason like this: Portland is a better version of Dallas. So if the Spurs needed 7 games to dispatch the Mavs, how much more will they struggle against the Blazers, right?

There is some truth to this assertion. Portland is a horrible matchup for the Spurs; I don't deny that. The Spurs have struggled against quick guards and athleticism, and the Blazers have both of these attributes in abundance.

Nevertheless, I think there are plenty of reasons for me as a Spurs fan to be optimistic that we'll win.

5. The Blazers don't have a bench.
Dallas was one of the deeper teams in the NBA, so the Spurs' 2nd unit didn't end up being as dominant against them as they were compared to the average NBA bench. Portland on the other hand has virtually no bench at all. In fact, their bench is so bad that they only get extremely limited minutes during the playoffs, with Terry Stotts opting for an 8-man rotation. Playing against horrible bench players / tired starters should ignite the Spurs' bench and allow it to the level of production that made it the best in the NBA.

4. The Spurs are far more experienced.
The Spurs are a battle-tested and veteran team. They know how to play in critical, late-game situations. Even the Mavs were a veteran team, which contributed to why the Spurs struggled against them. The Blazers, on the other hand, are an up-and-coming young team. They don't have anywhere near the playoff experience that either of these teams do, and that will likely lead to costly errors that will make them give up crucial games.

3. Terry Stotts is not Rick Carlisle.
Carlisle outcoached Pop in the 1st round. He made far better tactical and in-game adjustments than the reigning Coach of the Year, to the point where even Pop admitted that Carlisle had "confounded" him. Now, Terry Stotts is a decent coach and all, but he's nowhere near the same level as Carlisle. Stotts won't be able to come up with a game plan as confounding as Carlisle's, so Pop should figure out how to matchup against this team more easily.

2. Dallas prepared the Spurs for the Blazers matchup.
Dallas and Portland have similar playing styles (dominant jump shooting big man, prolific scoring guard, an abundance of perimeter shooting, etc). In fact, the two teams are so similar that Tony Parker even called the Mavs a "warm-up" for the Blazers. Now that the Spurs have figured out how to beat the Mavs, they should already have a handle for how to play against this Blazers team.

1. Dallas has woken the Spurs up from their slumber.
Through Games 1-6, San Antonio played like it was the regular season while Dallas was treating each game like Game 7 of the NBA Finals. But when the Spurs were pushed to the limit, they finally flipped the switch, and completely annihilated the Mavs. When the Spurs are on the top of their game, they are virtually unbeatable.

[servalli]

6. "Spurs God" MVSplitter

[Chinook]

I don't like the bench argument. Pop shouldn't go more than eight deep either. Green and Leonard need to match minutes with Lillard and Batum. I don't want Pop trying to moneyball the situation by playing Beli and Mills big minutes.

[Robz4000]

I don't like the bench argument. Pop shouldn't go more than eight deep either. Green and Leonard need to match minutes with Lillard and Batum. I don't want Pop trying to moneyball the situation by playing Beli and Mills big minutes.

I disagree tbh, at least with Mills. Pop should throw Beli out there and see if he can contribute scoring-wise. If he can't, glue his ass to the bench. OTOH, Mills may be the Spurs' best bet to counteract Mo Williams who has made a career out of raping the Spurs. Mills is quick enough to stick with Williams while he can't guard Mills. If he can negate whatever Williams does the Spurs will be in great shape.

[Chinook]

I disagree tbh, at least with Mills. Pop should throw Beli out there and see if he can contribute scoring-wise. If he can't, glue his ass to the bench. OTOH, Mills may be the Spurs' best bet to counteract Mo Williams who has made a career out of raping the Spurs. Mills is quick enough to stick with Williams while he can't guard Mills. If he can negate whatever Williams does the Spurs will be in great shape.

Pop needs to play one of them, but not both. Simply put, unless Portland goes small for long stretches, there's no reason to give Mills and Beli the combined 30mpg they're in line for. He just needs to go ahead and except that the Medium Three carry as much of the load as the Big Three do and play them accordingly.

I think Pop needs to make a concerted effort to make Green and Leonard part of the offense. They should have favorable match-ups for a lot of the games, and they need to take advantage of them to keep Portland honest. Doing so takes pressure off the Big Three to score as well as reduces the need for bench production, since the New Two should be playing a lot of minutes with Mills/Beli, Ginobili and Diaw.

[Robz4000]

Pop needs to play one of them, but not both. Simply put, unless Portland goes small for long stretches, there's no reason to give Mills and Beli the combined 30mpg they're in line for. He just needs to go ahead and except that the Medium Three carry as much of the load as the Big Three do and play them accordingly.

I think Pop needs to make a concerted effort to make Green and Leonard part of the offense. They should have favorable match-ups for a lot of the games, and they need to take advantage of them to keep Portland honest. Doing so takes pressure off the Big Three to score as well as reduces the need for bench production, since the New Two should be playing a lot of minutes with Mills/Beli, Ginobili and Diaw.

I can agree with that

[adonis827]

You can stick Green to Lillard and Kawhi to Batum. Hope either Duncan or Splitter or Diaw somehow slow down Aldridge.

But what about Wes Mathews and Mo Williams? The other guard spot would likely be Parker or Mills for us- that would look like a mismatch imho

[admiralsnackbar]

At least in the case of Mills, there is some juice to be pressed. Ex-players of teams tend to play well against their old teams (see Dejuan), and it helps he will come in fresh and bring some of his understanding of his old team to the mix. As far as the rest of our bench... I expect fresh legs will be welcome, since Portland's 2nd squad is pretty rough around the edges, and the statistical anomaly of our bench being terrible will entually equalize itself. The options for them are to play against a tired 1st team and surprise them, or against a fresh second team and overpower them. Could very well go 7 games, too, but I feel more confident about this matchup than with Dallas.

[will_spurs]

4. The Spurs are far more experienced.
The Spurs are a battle-tested and veteran team. They know how to play in critical, late-game situations. Even the Mavs were a veteran team, which contributed to why the Spurs struggled against them. The Blazers, on the other hand, are an up-and-coming young team. They don't have anywhere near the playoff experience that either of these teams do, and that will likely lead to costly errors that will make them give up crucial games.

I think it's time to forget about this argument, after the meltdown of Game 6 last year or the buzzer-beating 3 by Carter in the 1st round. The Spurs don't strike me as a team particularly good at defending a lead in the 4th quarter or at avoiding costly mistakes and turnovers. The Blazers' energy late in the game can probably more than compensate the Spurs alleged "experience".

I agree with all the other factors you point out, though. I'm still wondering how the Spurs will deal with LMA.

[spurraider21]

Splitter is shaping up to be a vital piece during this playoff run. He was arguably our best player in the Dallas series, and is going to be assigned to Aldridge. His performance will shape how the series turns out. If he turns in another good series, I don't think anybody would be able to rationally argue against the signing. Looking forward, I know it was just one game, but if we end up against the Clippers, Splitter would also see a lot of time on Blake.

[100%duncan]

This is what I think basing from your points.

5. They have a solid 7 man rotation, that's all you need in the playoffs especially when your starters can play the whole game. And tbh, it scares me if Pop will really dig deep with the bench, it should just be starting 5 plus manu,splitter/diaw, mills. A solid 8. So yeah depth doesn't really do that much.

4. Yes they are but what can experience do? The Spurs can still throw games hardly tbh. Don't forget about 6

3. With this I agree on, Jim Carrey might be the 2nd best coach currently only second to Pop.

2. Eh they are not really the same. IMHO Dirk didn't have that much of a factor, yes he was scoring good but it was their guards and flukey shooting that made the series go to 7 imho.

1. Yes, the Spurs needed that. Let's hope they won't let up and keep their caliber as high as what we saw in game 7.

[Seventyniner]

the New Two

I thought that was Belinelli and Ayers...

[Texas_Ranger]

They perhaps don't have a bench but someone will step up as the new Spurs killer besides Mo Williams. I can see Thomas Robinson turn into a Serge Ibaka and start making jump shots.

[EVAY]

Terry Stotts says he has already reached out to Rick Carlisle. So I assume that the Spurs will see a lot of what they saw from Dallas. The thing is, it appears that the Spurs solved it by the last game, so I'm not sure that is an issue.

Re: the bench. I agree that it would be ideal if our bench steps up and plays a big role in this series. However, if they do, it will mean fewer minutes and less scoring for our starters, which some around here will interpret as our big three losing their grip or playing poorly. If our bench can play well and our starters keep a lid on the Portland scoring while they are out there, I think we win for sure.

Each of the Portland big threats are far younger than our big threats. That is true even for Parker/Lillard. So there will be a significant issue regarding youth and athleticism vs. experience at every single big position, save small forward. I don't know how that will work out.

[spurspokesman]

Dallas has the one thing that troubles the spurs. A fast, big and explosive guard that can be at the rim in a blink and his name is monta ellis. Portland doesn't have this, yes lillard is better but he doesnt have the athleticism of monta and on top of that harris comes in when he sits so they both give us problems. Spurs match up better with portland in my opinion

[superbigtime]

Wes Matthews is going to be more of a problem than Mo, you can count on that.

[wildchild]

I think Pop needs to make a concerted effort to make Green and Leonard part of the offense. They should have favorable match-ups for a lot of the games, and they need to take advantage of them to keep Portland honest. Doing so takes pressure off the Big Three to score as well as reduces the need for bench production, since the New Two should be playing a lot of minutes with Mills/Beli, Ginobili and Diaw.

Agree. He needs involve them in the offense and not "choose" between offense or defense, he should play these two guys +40 minutes every game of this series because the Spurs need to contain Lillard, Matthews and Batum.

[ginobilized]

Should be one very good series.

I think most of the variables on each team more or less even out.

The Wes Matthews vs. Danny Green contributions will be a big factor, I think. Though this will unlikely be a head-to-head matchup, their play is very crucial. If either of these players "go off" their team has a distinct advantage.
If the Spurs play solid defense, move the ball and get solid contributions from role players, we win in 5 or 6. If not, could go to 7.

Portland is scary as Aldridge and Lillard can be downright unstoppable. I hope that Batum doesn't kill us and that Lopez, Mo Williams and Wes Matthews don't have a career best type of series. I fully expect each of those players to have at least one amazing game, though. The foreign legion will be HUGE for the Spurs. They can really sway the series if they give the Blazers trouble.

Go Spurs!!!

[TheGoldStandard]

Spurs truly didn't figure anything out per say, To borrow a line from Pop, Spurs made there shots and Dallas didn't. Pop was confounded by a pretty generic strategy that the Mavs bought into and had the length to execute. If Portland does the same thing they'll guard the 3 point line and make Parker and Tim go to work. Parker will be the key again.

The good news is Portland is sloppy on defense so they should give our perimeter guys looks coming off screens or in transition. I have a feeling Pop will revert to playing Marco big minutes that will eat into Greens

[Chinook]

I thought that was Belinelli and Ayers...

They don't get a nickname.

[timtonymanu]

I agree. Even though we have a bench, Pop can't play Mills and Beli for long stretches.

Leonard and Green especially need to play 40 minutes.

[xtremesteven33]

Key is defense. Spurs need to come up with a scheme that really makes the Blazers work for their points. The easier they get shots off the better theyll play on defense. They are still a young team. With young teams the easier their offense comes, the more energetic and focused they play on defense. Can the Spurs rattle these guys a little bit and make them really work for their offense?

[xellos88330]

Keep Robin Lopez off the glass. That dude has been pretty tough for the Spurs to handle on the boards. If you can neutralize his energy and extra possessions he provides, the Spurs chances increase dramatically.

[Horse]

We can't double, let them take all the contested jumpers they want to. And they seem to be happy settling for jumpers. Who cares if la has 40 if no one else gets involved.

[Jimcs50]

1 seed > 5 seed

nuff said

[sexinthatsx]

Like I've said numerous times before, I suspect Marco Belinelli will be huge for this series simply because Belinelli is better at full-court sets than half-court sets. Dallas played a lot of half-court sets, rendering Ferrari useless. Blazers tend to run, so I expect Beli to get a lot of fast breaks and open 3's.

And as other posters said before, Patty Mills is going to be a factor. I'm sure Patty still has some form of disappointment and vendetta against Portland for letting him go in the past.

[DPG21920]

I mean, POR is really a more athletic/aggressive version of Dallas tbh..LA is just as bad as Dirk at defending the PnR and although Tiago will struggle defensively more with LA than he did with Dirk because LA can drive a little better, overall that PnR should be very effective against POR.

Hopefully Spurs aren't stubborn and try to go too heavy Tim 1 v 1 against Lopez too often. It's ok to run offense through him, but Spurs need to run a lot of PnR and get guard penetration vs Tim post up's IMO. Again, due to POR's defensive strategy, Kawhi has a chance to be huge.

Blazers entire defense is centered around defending the 3. As always, taking care of the ball on the dribble on their hard close outs, setting good screens and making crisp passes is key to getting those looks. Kawhi has a chance to be huge this series as he's the best mid-range guy the Spurs have.

[ElNono]

I don't like the bench argument. Pop shouldn't go more than eight deep either. Green and Leonard need to match minutes with Lillard and Batum. I don't want Pop trying to moneyball the situation by playing Beli and Mills big minutes.

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51T0DnfCflL._SY300_.jpg

Magic Eight Ball says: disappointment is in your future...

:lol

[ElNono]

Thanks OP for the writeup :tu

[DPG21920]

Thanks OP for the writeup :tu

No problem.

[Big Empty]

happy we dont have to face houston. spurs in 5

[Chinook]

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51T0DnfCflL._SY300_.jpg

Magic Eight Ball says: disappointment is in your future...

:lol

Early series, I think you're right, which is why it wouldn't surprise me to see the Spurs struggle in the first two games and drop the third before finishing Portland off in five. I think Pop will try to get away with playing 10 players unless Portland stops them.

[ElNono]

No problem.

sup DaPointGuard?

[DPG21920]

sup DaPointGuard?

Oops - wrong account :wow

[Beaverfuzz]

I don't like the bench argument. Pop shouldn't go more than eight deep either. Green and Leonard need to match minutes with Lillard and Batum. I don't want Pop trying to moneyball the situation by playing Beli and Mills big minutes.

Agreed. I bet the Blazers shorten the bench up even more (not counting for the 2-3 minutes of scrub ball at the end)

[hater]

Reasons 1 4 and 5 are pure bullshit.

Agree with reasons 2 and 3. Coaching and experience. But there are big reasons why Portland could win the series too. They have the best 2 players. Top 5 defense and hungrier stomachs and younger legs.

this series is a tossup and Portland will land the first couple of haymakers

[Malik Hairston]

Reasons 1 4 and 5 are pure bullshit.

Agree with reasons 2 and 3. Coaching and experience. But there are big reasons why Portland could win the series too. They have the best 2 players. Top 5 defense and hungrier stomachs and younger legs.

this series is a tossup and Portland will land the first couple of haymakers

:lmao what?..

[hater]

Out of the remaining teams, Top 5 in the league in opp FG% nigglet. :lol

[313]

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51T0DnfCflL._SY300_.jpg

Magic Eight Ball says: disappointment is in your future...

:lol
:lol





















































:cry

[313]

Reasons 1 4 and 5 are pure bullshit.

Agree with reasons 2 and 3. Coaching and experience. But there are big reasons why Portland could win the series too. They have the best 2 players. Top 5 defense and hungrier stomachs and younger legs.

this series is a tossup and Portland will land the first couple of haymakersTop 5 defense since when? :lmao


Out of the remaining teams, Top 5 in the league in opp FG% nigglet.

Ah okay. That doesn't say much with there only being 8 teams left, though.

[Uriel]

In hindsight, all the reasons stated above ended up being precisely the very reasons why San Antonio was so easily able to dispatch of Portland. Even the arguments that were initially called into question, such as our advantages in bench depth and veteran experience, turned out to be major themes all series along.

[lurker23]

In hindsight, all the reasons stated above ended up being precisely the very reasons why San Antonio was so easily able to dispatch of Portland. Even the arguments that were initially called into question, such as our advantages in bench depth and veteran experience, turned out to be major themes all series along.

Good job, nice predictions. :tu

[DPG21920]

I mean, POR is really a more athletic/aggressive version of Dallas tbh..LA is just as bad as Dirk at defending the PnR and although Tiago will struggle defensively more with LA than he did with Dirk because LA can drive a little better, overall that PnR should be very effective against POR.

Hopefully Spurs aren't stubborn and try to go too heavy Tim 1 v 1 against Lopez too often. It's ok to run offense through him, but Spurs need to run a lot of PnR and get guard penetration vs Tim post up's IMO. Again, due to POR's defensive strategy, Kawhi has a chance to be huge.

Blazers entire defense is centered around defending the 3. As always, taking care of the ball on the dribble on their hard close outs, setting good screens and making crisp passes is key to getting those looks. Kawhi has a chance to be huge this series as he's the best mid-range guy the Spurs have.

Spurs pummeled POR with the PnR & Kawhi was great.