Malik Hairston
05-06-2014, 05:28 PM
Lamarcus Aldridge
According to Aldridge, Tim Duncan was the man that provided him with his first glimpse of the realities of NBA dominance. It hasn't affected Aldridge going forward, though, as he has completely annihilated the Spurs in the past few seasons.
Since 2011, Aldridge is averaging approximately 25 PPG on roughly 60% shooting against San Antonio. As Tim Duncan's mobility progressively declined and as analytics became prominent in the NBA culture, the Spurs were one of the first teams to utilize the strategy of happily conceding the mid-range jump shot, particularly from opposing big men.
Aldridge has admitted that his specialty, the 15-18 foot jump shot, is the least efficient shot in basketball, and that even his own Portland team attempts to force their opponents into taking said shot. While the Spurs have been fine with allowing these shots, they certainly haven't been able to stop them.
Whether it has been Carlos Boozer, David Lee, Kevin Love, etc, the Spurs have had trouble against jump-shooting bigs, with Aldridge being the best in the league in this category.
Lamarcus Aldridge does his best work out of the pick&pop, where he is statistically elite, and this is the staple of the Portland offense. It doesn't matter where it is on the floor, Aldridge will kill you, as Spurs fans have seen the past few seasons.
While Aldridge is certainly capable at posting up, where he rated above average this season, the Spurs ranked 7th in post-up defense this year, so it shouldn't be a major problem. Both Splitter and Duncan are excellent post defenders.
Spurs offensive strengths vs. Portland's defensive weaknesses
The Spurs were the #1 pick&roll offense this season, which they fully displayed in the latter part of the Mavericks series. Portland was the 28th ranked pick&roll team this year, their weakest defensive attribute. While the Mavs' pick&roll defense was horrendous for most of the series, they actually ranked much better than the Blazers at defending the pick&roll this season, which is good news for the Spurs
The Blazers' bigs aren't necessarily bad at defending the pick&roll(neither ranked poorly and won't be liabilities like Nowitzki and Blair), but their team defense seems to collapse against the pick&roll ball-handler, particularly once the guard drives inside, part of the reason they ranked 29th in points in the paint allowed.
Portland also struggles to defend in isolation, where all their perimeter defenders ranked poorly, particularly Lillard, Matthews and Williams. Batum, like Kawhi, is overrated defensively due to appearance/perception, tbh(long and athletic gives the illusion of being a great defender, although Leonard isn't nearly as bad as Batum). He's a decent rotational defender, but a below average ISO defender and post-up defender.
Parker and Ginobili will and should be the primary attackers in the pick&roll, and Tony needs to attack in isolation, as well, as we saw in the 1st quarters of the Mavericks series.
Statistically, the position that gave Portland the most problems this season was the PG position. This will need to be Tony Parker's series. He doesn't need to play like he did in game 7 vs. Dallas, but he cannot play nearly as bad as he did in the series as a whole.
The Blazers were also a poor post-up defense this season, particularly against wing post-ups, where they ranked near the bottom of the league. Wes Matthews struggles against taller players in the post, while Batum's frame has given him trouble inside.
Kawhi Leonard should continue to receive post looks in this series against poor post defenders. Leonard struggled against Dallas's double teams, where he threw the ball back out and stalled the offense, but I'm not sure if Portland is willing to send a double his way like the Mavs did. Hopefully Leonard is prepared for it. With Duncan potentially being taken out, the spacing for Leonard should be optimal.
Cleaning up the glass
The Spurs struggled heavily against the Mavs on the offensive glass, which was a major reason for the Mavs' success in the series IMO. Whether it was Dalembert or Blair, both big men outhustled Duncan for most of the series.
The Blazers ranked 4th in offensive rebounding % this season, they are much better than the Mavs, which could cause major troubles for the Spurs.
Tim Duncan's role in this series
Timmy's offense was solid against the Mavs, outside of 1 game where he couldn't get an advantage over Blair, but his defense and rebounding was inconsistent.
Lillard, like Steph Curry in last year's playoffs, is going to cause Duncan fits. He ranked as one of the top pick&roll players in the league this season, and his extended range is going to force Tim into a disadvantaged position, just like Curry did.
To exacerbate this issue, Robin Lopez was the 5th most effective roll man in the league this season.
Lopez is a poor post defender, which means the Spurs are going to need to feed Duncan early and often to justify his presence on the floor IMO.
If Duncan isn't effective, offensively, Pop will need to strongly consider sitting him, like he often did in the Warriors series.
Tim's effectiveness on defense is largely based on his rim protection/altering and his post-up defense. The Blazers were 28th in points in the paint this season, and Robin Lopez isn't going to post very often. Defensively, Duncan simply may not fit in this series, at least not for extended stretches, especially if he isn't producing in the post.
Portland's offensive strengths vs. the San Antonio's defensive weaknesses
The Blazers live and die by the jump shot, tbh. Their purpose is to limit 3-pointers on defense and shoot 3-pointers on offense.
The Spurs' worst defensive trait this season has been their spot-up defense, especially when Duncan and Parker are on the floor. Timmy is often too slow to contest the perimeter, and Tony's team defense this year has been the worst we have ever seen from him.
The Blazers ranked #6 in spot-up scoring, mostly coming from 3-point shooting.
Defensively, Portland thrives at limiting perimeter shooting, where they also ranked among the best in the league. This will be imperative against a Spurs team that ranked best in the league in spot-up scoring. Like the Mavs, expect the Blazers to eventually hide Lillard and Mo Williams on Green/Belinelli and force Parker/Ginobili/Duncan to beat them.
Turnovers
The Spurs were destroyed against Dallas by turning the ball over, particularly in game 2's embarrassing performance.
Monta Ellis, Devin Harris and Shawn Marion did a large portion of their damage in transition.
The Mavs ranked 4th in steals per defensive play, which was on display for most of the series. The Blazers ranked last in steals per defensive play, they do not force turnovers, the Spurs need to keep it that way.
The Lillard match-up
As I said earlier, Lillard is a pick&roll monster, particularly from 3. That isn't his only strength, though, as he also ranked among the best in isolation efficiency.
Ideally, Danny Green will spend most of the time defending him, but based on last series, it's far from a given. Green was one of the best ISO defenders in the league this season, and easily the best on the Spurs roster.
One of the problems that will arise is hiding Parker, though. Wes Matthews ranked as one of the best perimeter post-up players in the league. Matthews doesn't have a notable triple threat game, but he easily takes advantage of mismatches in the post.
Batum doesn't have post-up skills, he only had a handful of post looks all season, but he wouldn't have any problems shooting over Parker, if the Spurs decide to go that route.
Personally, I expect Parker to guard Lillard for stretches, but if Pop opts to have him defending Matthews, I don't have a problem with it.
Defensively, Lillard will certainly hide on Green IMO. While Lillard is a competent team defender and a poor isolation defender, the Spurs won't be running ISO plays for Danny, obviously. Hopefully Pop draws up some screen plays for him, early, though. Lillard's team defense actually isn't that bad, his problems are ISO defense and defending through screens.
Green displayed some offensive skills outside of shooting in games 6 and 7 vs. the Mavs, though. He had some nice cuts to the basket and even a dribble-drive to the rim in game 7, something he is better at than the perception from Spurs fans. The Spurs need to take advantage of transition opportunities, as well, as that's where Green was able to get himself going in games 6&7 IMO.
Other notes
- Portland won't play a deep bench, their starters generally eat up most of the minutes. Mo Williams will see big minutes, though, and they run a Williams-Lillard backcourt at times, too. Robinson and Wright will see some time, but I expect a lot of small-ball from the Blazers.
The Spurs did not run a lot of small-ball this season, but Pop stated earlier in the season that they are prepared for it, if required. Leonard has been very successful at PF this season, albeit in a limited sample size.
- Belinelli was by far the worst player in the Mavs series, tbh. He had the worst offensive on/off by a bit, and by far the worst defensive on/off. While the Blazers don't have a Vince Carter on their bench, isolation defense isn't the only problem with Belinelli's defense. He constantly left Mavs' shooters wide open for 3-pointers on personal defensive breakdowns, and that would be suicide against a Blazers' team with an abundance of shooters.
- As I mentioned earlier, Portland doesn't defend the post well, and they ranked 29th in opponent's points in the paint. I don't know if Duncan can stay on the floor, defensively, so it's especially important that Leonard and Diaw in particular are attacking the paint in this series IMO.
According to Aldridge, Tim Duncan was the man that provided him with his first glimpse of the realities of NBA dominance. It hasn't affected Aldridge going forward, though, as he has completely annihilated the Spurs in the past few seasons.
Since 2011, Aldridge is averaging approximately 25 PPG on roughly 60% shooting against San Antonio. As Tim Duncan's mobility progressively declined and as analytics became prominent in the NBA culture, the Spurs were one of the first teams to utilize the strategy of happily conceding the mid-range jump shot, particularly from opposing big men.
Aldridge has admitted that his specialty, the 15-18 foot jump shot, is the least efficient shot in basketball, and that even his own Portland team attempts to force their opponents into taking said shot. While the Spurs have been fine with allowing these shots, they certainly haven't been able to stop them.
Whether it has been Carlos Boozer, David Lee, Kevin Love, etc, the Spurs have had trouble against jump-shooting bigs, with Aldridge being the best in the league in this category.
Lamarcus Aldridge does his best work out of the pick&pop, where he is statistically elite, and this is the staple of the Portland offense. It doesn't matter where it is on the floor, Aldridge will kill you, as Spurs fans have seen the past few seasons.
While Aldridge is certainly capable at posting up, where he rated above average this season, the Spurs ranked 7th in post-up defense this year, so it shouldn't be a major problem. Both Splitter and Duncan are excellent post defenders.
Spurs offensive strengths vs. Portland's defensive weaknesses
The Spurs were the #1 pick&roll offense this season, which they fully displayed in the latter part of the Mavericks series. Portland was the 28th ranked pick&roll team this year, their weakest defensive attribute. While the Mavs' pick&roll defense was horrendous for most of the series, they actually ranked much better than the Blazers at defending the pick&roll this season, which is good news for the Spurs
The Blazers' bigs aren't necessarily bad at defending the pick&roll(neither ranked poorly and won't be liabilities like Nowitzki and Blair), but their team defense seems to collapse against the pick&roll ball-handler, particularly once the guard drives inside, part of the reason they ranked 29th in points in the paint allowed.
Portland also struggles to defend in isolation, where all their perimeter defenders ranked poorly, particularly Lillard, Matthews and Williams. Batum, like Kawhi, is overrated defensively due to appearance/perception, tbh(long and athletic gives the illusion of being a great defender, although Leonard isn't nearly as bad as Batum). He's a decent rotational defender, but a below average ISO defender and post-up defender.
Parker and Ginobili will and should be the primary attackers in the pick&roll, and Tony needs to attack in isolation, as well, as we saw in the 1st quarters of the Mavericks series.
Statistically, the position that gave Portland the most problems this season was the PG position. This will need to be Tony Parker's series. He doesn't need to play like he did in game 7 vs. Dallas, but he cannot play nearly as bad as he did in the series as a whole.
The Blazers were also a poor post-up defense this season, particularly against wing post-ups, where they ranked near the bottom of the league. Wes Matthews struggles against taller players in the post, while Batum's frame has given him trouble inside.
Kawhi Leonard should continue to receive post looks in this series against poor post defenders. Leonard struggled against Dallas's double teams, where he threw the ball back out and stalled the offense, but I'm not sure if Portland is willing to send a double his way like the Mavs did. Hopefully Leonard is prepared for it. With Duncan potentially being taken out, the spacing for Leonard should be optimal.
Cleaning up the glass
The Spurs struggled heavily against the Mavs on the offensive glass, which was a major reason for the Mavs' success in the series IMO. Whether it was Dalembert or Blair, both big men outhustled Duncan for most of the series.
The Blazers ranked 4th in offensive rebounding % this season, they are much better than the Mavs, which could cause major troubles for the Spurs.
Tim Duncan's role in this series
Timmy's offense was solid against the Mavs, outside of 1 game where he couldn't get an advantage over Blair, but his defense and rebounding was inconsistent.
Lillard, like Steph Curry in last year's playoffs, is going to cause Duncan fits. He ranked as one of the top pick&roll players in the league this season, and his extended range is going to force Tim into a disadvantaged position, just like Curry did.
To exacerbate this issue, Robin Lopez was the 5th most effective roll man in the league this season.
Lopez is a poor post defender, which means the Spurs are going to need to feed Duncan early and often to justify his presence on the floor IMO.
If Duncan isn't effective, offensively, Pop will need to strongly consider sitting him, like he often did in the Warriors series.
Tim's effectiveness on defense is largely based on his rim protection/altering and his post-up defense. The Blazers were 28th in points in the paint this season, and Robin Lopez isn't going to post very often. Defensively, Duncan simply may not fit in this series, at least not for extended stretches, especially if he isn't producing in the post.
Portland's offensive strengths vs. the San Antonio's defensive weaknesses
The Blazers live and die by the jump shot, tbh. Their purpose is to limit 3-pointers on defense and shoot 3-pointers on offense.
The Spurs' worst defensive trait this season has been their spot-up defense, especially when Duncan and Parker are on the floor. Timmy is often too slow to contest the perimeter, and Tony's team defense this year has been the worst we have ever seen from him.
The Blazers ranked #6 in spot-up scoring, mostly coming from 3-point shooting.
Defensively, Portland thrives at limiting perimeter shooting, where they also ranked among the best in the league. This will be imperative against a Spurs team that ranked best in the league in spot-up scoring. Like the Mavs, expect the Blazers to eventually hide Lillard and Mo Williams on Green/Belinelli and force Parker/Ginobili/Duncan to beat them.
Turnovers
The Spurs were destroyed against Dallas by turning the ball over, particularly in game 2's embarrassing performance.
Monta Ellis, Devin Harris and Shawn Marion did a large portion of their damage in transition.
The Mavs ranked 4th in steals per defensive play, which was on display for most of the series. The Blazers ranked last in steals per defensive play, they do not force turnovers, the Spurs need to keep it that way.
The Lillard match-up
As I said earlier, Lillard is a pick&roll monster, particularly from 3. That isn't his only strength, though, as he also ranked among the best in isolation efficiency.
Ideally, Danny Green will spend most of the time defending him, but based on last series, it's far from a given. Green was one of the best ISO defenders in the league this season, and easily the best on the Spurs roster.
One of the problems that will arise is hiding Parker, though. Wes Matthews ranked as one of the best perimeter post-up players in the league. Matthews doesn't have a notable triple threat game, but he easily takes advantage of mismatches in the post.
Batum doesn't have post-up skills, he only had a handful of post looks all season, but he wouldn't have any problems shooting over Parker, if the Spurs decide to go that route.
Personally, I expect Parker to guard Lillard for stretches, but if Pop opts to have him defending Matthews, I don't have a problem with it.
Defensively, Lillard will certainly hide on Green IMO. While Lillard is a competent team defender and a poor isolation defender, the Spurs won't be running ISO plays for Danny, obviously. Hopefully Pop draws up some screen plays for him, early, though. Lillard's team defense actually isn't that bad, his problems are ISO defense and defending through screens.
Green displayed some offensive skills outside of shooting in games 6 and 7 vs. the Mavs, though. He had some nice cuts to the basket and even a dribble-drive to the rim in game 7, something he is better at than the perception from Spurs fans. The Spurs need to take advantage of transition opportunities, as well, as that's where Green was able to get himself going in games 6&7 IMO.
Other notes
- Portland won't play a deep bench, their starters generally eat up most of the minutes. Mo Williams will see big minutes, though, and they run a Williams-Lillard backcourt at times, too. Robinson and Wright will see some time, but I expect a lot of small-ball from the Blazers.
The Spurs did not run a lot of small-ball this season, but Pop stated earlier in the season that they are prepared for it, if required. Leonard has been very successful at PF this season, albeit in a limited sample size.
- Belinelli was by far the worst player in the Mavs series, tbh. He had the worst offensive on/off by a bit, and by far the worst defensive on/off. While the Blazers don't have a Vince Carter on their bench, isolation defense isn't the only problem with Belinelli's defense. He constantly left Mavs' shooters wide open for 3-pointers on personal defensive breakdowns, and that would be suicide against a Blazers' team with an abundance of shooters.
- As I mentioned earlier, Portland doesn't defend the post well, and they ranked 29th in opponent's points in the paint. I don't know if Duncan can stay on the floor, defensively, so it's especially important that Leonard and Diaw in particular are attacking the paint in this series IMO.