Game thoughts: Game 1, tbh..

[Malik Hairston]

These are mostly 1st half thoughts, tbh, as the 2nd half was mostly a stat-padding period for Portland:lol.

- Tony Parker was absolutely disgusting in this game, he set the tempo and rhythm for the Spurs in the 1st quarter. The Blazers were one of the worst teams in the league at defending pick&rolls during the regular season, as well as isolations, and Tony completely exploited them tonight. They have had trouble defending PGs all season, and when Parker is feeling good, he's still easily as good as any PG in the league.

It's evident that the Spurs, Parker in particular, were going to attack Portland's 28th ranked pick&roll defense all night. While Tony's mid-range jump shot was inconsistent, he hurt Portland in multiple ways, whether it was getting to the rim, or passing it to an open Duncan for the J, which he did for 4 of Duncan's 5 first half field goals.

In the first half, the Spurs scored on 67% of Tony Parker pick&rolls, ridiculous efficiency.

At the end of the first half and for most of the 2nd, Wes Matthews defended Parker, to no avail. Matthews is a poor isolation and pick&roll defender, he doesn't possess the lateral speed to defend Parker. The Blazers lack decent perimeter defenders, not one of them rates positively in any credible defensive metric.

Defensively, this was the best effort I saw from Parker all year. He guarded Lillard and did not give him any room to operate, and defended well around screens, which is especially impressive when you consider his energy being exerted on the other end.



- The Spurs clearly made a concerted effort to limit Portland's 3-point attempts, which is the heart of their offense. San Antonio has struggled to defend spot-up shooting all year when Duncan and Parker are on the floor together, but that was not the case tonight, with Parker's previously mentioned defensive energy, and Duncan displaying good mobility.

The Blazers took only 5 3-pointers at the half, which is less than half of the attempts they typically average in the 1st half of games. Of those 5 attempts, only 1 was an uncontested shot.



- Tiago Splitter is probably the most underrated defensive player in the league, but he won't be underrated for long if he continues to defend this well against the elite big men of the league. Splitter has been the best defensive player for the Spurs since last season, and he's one of the only big men in the league that can effectively defend both the post and the perimeter.

Lamarcus Aldridge only scored on 30% of the plays that directly involved Splitter as a defender, in the first half.



- The biggest liability for the Blazers was easily Damian Lillard, and the Spurs exploited his poor defense. In the first half, San Antonio scored on 71% of the plays where Lillard was the primary/secondary defender. Whether it was Parker attacking him, Leonard posting him up or Belinelli going through screens, the Spurs seemed to make it an emphasis to attack Lillard.



- Another defensive weakness for Portland is their post-up defense, where they ranked around 25th, and points in the paint, where they ranked 28th. The Spurs ran 5 post-up plays in the 1st half and generated points on all 5 trips(I'm including a play where they missed, but Baynes got the rebound and scored due to Portland being out of position).



- The bench finally looked like it did during the regular season. The Blazers did not exploit the Spurs' bench, defensively, like the Mavs did, nor did they get them off their shooting spots. The Spurs struggled against Devin Harris and Vince Carter's penetration/shooting, along with Blair's energy.

If Portland is going to allow the Spurs' bench to play their usual minutes, with success, they have absolutely no chance of winning this series.



- The Blazers looked completely unprepared for this game IMO.

:Poor defensive effort. They barely fought through screens, they allowed backdoor cuts, they didn't cut off passes. It was as if the Blazers had never seen the Spurs play basketball before:lol.

The Blazers had just played a series against a Rockets team that was one of the 3 most ISO-oriented teams in the NBA this season. The Rockets have arguably the least complicated offense in the league, and Portland played tonight's game like they were still up against those Rockets.

:Stotts decided to use Lillard on Parker, which completely backfired from the start. It wasn't until the end of the 2nd quarter that he decided to make a defensive switch. While I don't believe Matthews or Batum can guard Parker, they would certainly be an upgrade over Lillard.

:The Blazers barely put Duncan in pick&roll position, as we saw Dallas do with Ellis. Even when they did, it was with Batum as ball-handler, which isn't nearly as scary as Lillard. When Duncan was in the play against Lillard, they ran mostly off-ball plays where he would roll into the paint for after catching the ball, which is playing directly to Duncan's defensive strengths. Tim barely had to move in this game, defensively.

I expected a lot of the same sets that the Warriors used with Curry against Duncan in last year's playoffs, a lot of high pick&roll and switches, but the Blazers thought otherwise, I suppose. A lot of this was poor reads by Lillard, to be fair, where he either took off before Lopez's screen was even set, or he over-penetrated into Duncan.

:Portland attacked the Spurs' best defender(Splitter) in isolation more than any other play they ran in the first half, rather than attacking the weak points of the Spurs defense.



Overall, Portland lives and dies by the jump shot, and tonight was a game where they could not shoot. This will not happen every game, and there will be a game or two where the Spurs will defend very well, but Portland will shoot lights out from 3 against contested defense. Lillard was a complete non-factor in this game, which will virtually always result in a Portland loss.

Defensively, while Portland will make adjustments, they just cannot defend the Spurs when Parker is playing at peak level. They can't defend the pick&roll, and they're playing the best pick&roll team in the league. They don't have any viable perimeter defenders. They can't defend the post, and Diaw/Leonard will continue to kill them, as long as they remain aggressive.

[Leetonidas]

:tu

[Old School 44]

Welcome to the playoffs Marco Belinelli!!!

[apalisoc_9]

you said blazers in 6

[Malik Hairston]

you said blazers in 6

I really don't know, tbh..


If Parker plays like he did for most of the Mavs series, I'll go with Portland in 6..


If he plays like he did in game 1 of the Mavs series, I think the Spurs can win in 6..

[Robz4000]

Malik Hairston can you give me a source on that stat for Splitter guarding LA?

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Spurs in 5. Portland will win game 3 or 4 at home but that is it.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

and thanks for that Harlem.

[ElNono]

thanks :tu

[SpurPadre]

Good points. I will only add that Pop deciding to go with Baynes is also a great move for this series. Yes, he'll be hard-pressed to get 10 points again and might even struggle to get 10 total points the rest of the series but his ruggedness and ability to grab some rebounds and set good hard screens off the bench will wear on the Blazers. His seven rebounds were just as impressive as his scoring tonight and against the best rebounding team in the league, no less.

[Horry Hipcheck]

Spurs played the way they should have the entire Mavs series, and exploited Portland's weaknesses. Splitter played great D on LMA, even if Aldridge ultimately finished with more than 30 points (the most he's scored against the Spurs all season). We all know Portland won't shoot this poorly for long, and the Spurs won't defend as aggressively. The Blazers won't roll over and die.

Game 2 should already be viewed as a must-win, I think despite the throttling the Spurs administered tonight there's a large possibility they drop Games 3 and 4.

[timtonymanu]

Thanks for the grades, Harlem.

This was a great start to the series for the Spurs. On to Game 2.

[SpurPadre]

Spurs played the way they should have the entire Mavs series, and exploited Portland's weaknesses. Splitter played great D on LMA, even if Aldridge ultimately finished with more than 30 points (the most he's scored against the Spurs all season). We all know Portland won't shoot this poorly for long, and the Spurs won't defend as aggressively. The Blazers won't roll over and die.

Game 2 should already be viewed as a must-win, I think despite the throttling the Spurs administered tonight there's a large possibility they drop Games 3 and 4.

Large possibility is a bit much. We can lose games three and four but let's have a little faith in the team.

[Malik Hairston]

Baynes was phenomenal tonight..

I thought Pop would consider him against Dallas when the Mavs' were disrupting the Spurs' lanes and taking advantage of poor screens by Splitter at times, and especially Ayres..Marion was easily getting through screens when he was guarding Parker earlier in the series, I thought Baynes' powerful screens could have helped, but Pop opted to go with Ayres, for whatever reason..

Nice to see that he went with Baynes over Ayres/Bonner, as it proved to be effective, obviously..

He even guarded Aldridge very well on the 2 possessions where they were matched up..I fully expect refs to call him for cheap fouls against him in the future, though:lol..

[Gummi Clutch]

you said blazers in 6
Actually that was you you stupid defeatist idiot.

[Gummi Clutch]

...And that was actually a really good writeup imo fwiw :tu

[Floyd Pacquiao]

Excellent analysis, per par, tbh....

[RD2191]

Tbh.

[Horry Hipcheck]

Large possibility is a bit much. We can lose games three and four but let's have a little faith in the team.

I have quite a bit, but we saw a terrible performance from the Blazers tonight. The Spurs are talented enough to waltz right through Portland. But realistically, the Blazers are going to play better and the Spurs are probably going to plateau a bit. I don't think this series being 2-2 going into Game 5 is in any showing a lack of faith.

[Malik Hairston]

After the game, both Damian Lillard and Robin Lopez commented on how the Spurs are a much scarier animal than Houston:lol..

Lopez mentioned how the Rockets only attack in isolation looks, and the Blazers weren't ready to defend the Spurs motion offense..

[Mugen]

:tu

Good points on TP's defense, by far the best I've seen him play all season.

If POR allows Beli to be an above average defender against Batum, they're done tbh. But they'll come out with a better effort in Game 2 and should hit a higher clip. I just don't think they have an answer for the Spurs defensively.

[wildchild]

Thanks Malik!


:Stotts decided to use Lillard on Parker, which completely backfired from the start. It wasn't until the end of the 2nd quarter that he decided to make a defensive switch. While I don't believe Matthews or Batum can guard Parker, they would certainly be an upgrade over Lillard.

And Batum on Green in the first quarter. That was weird because Leonard exploited matchup against Matthews and he was more comfortable playing on the post than in the second half when Stotts decided put Batum on him.

I'm glad to see Tiago playing at a high level. I expected Pop would put Tim/Boris on Aldridge like he did in the RS but he changed the defensive assignments and it worked really well.

[Chinook]

Green seemed completely unprepared to guard Lillard, which is somewhat worrying for the later games in this series. The good news is that it seemed more mental than physical. His effort on Matthews left a lot to be desired, since Wes seemed to bully Danny a little bit. It actually made sense for Pop to cross-match his wings with Portland's wings. Green was great on Batum, which may be enough for the Spurs to win most nights. Leonard also made Matthews a non-factor, which combined with Batum's ineffectiveness, would definitely sink the Blazers if it continues.

[Spurs21Fan4Ever]

Great writeup! How did you get all of those stats?

[HI-FI]

:tu on the analysis Harlem, always a good read.

and props on doing it without the .. tbh schtick, nice change of pace. :lol

[Gummi Clutch]

:tu on the analysis Harlem, always a good read.

and props on doing it without the .. tbh schtick, nice change of pace. :lol
or the minion semen shields :lol

[sook]

After the game, both Damian Lillard and Robin Lopez commented on how the Spurs are a much scarier animal than Houston:lol..

Lopez mentioned how the Rockets only attack in isolation looks, and the Blazers weren't ready to defend the Spurs motion offense..

:lmao I saw that too. Those mfers in the FO want to bring McHale back, but if there is any ounce of sanity in them hopefully those words woke them up..

[Robz4000]

Green seemed completely unprepared to guard Lillard, which is somewhat worrying for the later games in this series. The good news is that it seemed more mental than physical. His effort on Matthews left a lot to be desired, since Wes seemed to bully Danny a little bit. It actually made sense for Pop to cross-match his wings with Portland's wings. Green was great on Batum, which may be enough for the Spurs to win most nights. Leonard also made Matthews a non-factor, which combined with Batum's ineffectiveness, would definitely sink the Blazers if it continues.

If Tony is able to defend Lillard like he did tonight on the regular, Green on Batum and Leonard on Matthews would be my preferred assignments. Batum doesn't take advantage of his length like he should while Mathews' build fits into Kawhi's defensive strengths.

[Malik Hairston]

Green seemed completely unprepared to guard Lillard, which is somewhat worrying for the later games in this series. The good news is that it seemed more mental than physical. His effort on Matthews left a lot to be desired, since Wes seemed to bully Danny a little bit. It actually made sense for Pop to cross-match his wings with Portland's wings. Green was great on Batum, which may be enough for the Spurs to win most nights. Leonard also made Matthews a non-factor, which combined with Batum's ineffectiveness, would definitely sink the Blazers if it continues.

I like Green against Batum..Batum does most of his damage off screens and isolation, which fits into Green's defensive strengths IMO..Batum can't post up, he only had around 9 post attempts all year, he wouldn't really use his length against Green inside..

Matthews' only offensive strength, outside of shooting, is posting up, which isn't ideal against Leonard's wingspan/frame..

This depends on Parker's defensive effort, though..if he can effectively remain on Lillard, it would be huge for the Spurs' defense against the rest of the Blazers..

[ElNono]

Batum was a complete non-factor, tbh... most of his offense is hero shit anyways... impressive that Pop even hid with Beli on him :lol

[Cry Havoc]

Isoball is dead. Seriously. Unless you have an unmatched physical specimen like LeBron, it's an archaic scheme that good defenses are going to crush. Look at the Clippers vs. Thunder for another example of the future of the NBA, vs. the past.

[Malik Hairston]

Isoball is dead. Seriously. Unless you have an unmatched physical specimen like LeBron, it's an archaic scheme that good defenses are going to crush. Look at the Clippers vs. Thunder for another example of the future of the NBA, vs. the past.

Even Miami doesn't rank in the top 10 in ISO plays, despite having Lebron tbh..

[timtonymanu]

Batum was a complete non-factor, tbh... most of his offense is hero shit anyways... impressive that Pop even hid with Beli on him :lol

Typical Batum, tbh.

[spurraider21]

Great write up as usual Harlem Hairston :tu

[jARS mEsH sEt]

What's your worry level with Ginobili? I'm probably at a 2.5 out of 10 (10 being most worried) given what I saw in game 1. He seemed to get to the rim at will pretty easily, although his layups were clearly shot under duress/intimidation. Fortunately our bigs were able to follow up with easy put-backs on at least two Ginobili drives to the rim.

[ElNono]

What's your worry level with Ginobili? I'm probably at a 2.5 out of 10 (10 being most worried) given what I saw in game 1. He seemed to get to the rim at will pretty easily, although his layups were clearly shot under duress/intimidation. Fortunately our bigs were able to follow up with easy put-backs on at least two Ginobili drives to the rim.

The bench showing up like today isn't a given, IMO. I hope it does, but you have to think they'll mostly be playing against the Portland's starters, and because of that, it's likely they're going to get outscored as the series wears on. For that reason, it'll be important that Gino plays well with that second unit. Hopefully his struggles today are more about having just a bad game than an actual matchup problem. I actually think he might have problems when a physical guy like Wes guards him, especially in Portland where the Spurs are unlikely to get much calls. But he's also a guy that can exploit the P&R well, and actually make Tiago a solid treat on offense too.

[SpursFan86]

I'm not too worried about Manu. He's been just as consistent, probably more consistent than Tony this postseason. Manu has been great in 5 games, average in 1 game (Game 3 IIRC), and straight up bad in 2 games. The only complaint I have is that he's settled for jumpers too often. He's been money whenever he's driving, but at times he'll go through stretches where he settles for 3s and long 2s for some reason. He's 1-10 this postseason on FGAs from 16 feet out to the 3-point line, and he's shooting 35.9% from 3. However from closer ranges, he's been much better:

10-16 feet: 77.8% (35.3% in last year's playoffs)
3-10 feet: 54.5% (41.2% in last year's playoffs)
0-3 feet: 66.7% (58.3% in last year's playoffs)

You can see he's been dominant inside of 16 feet. Regardless, Manu has been noticeably better this entire season compared to last year's regular season/playoffs. As long as he stays healthy I'm confident he'll play well consistently. The problem is keeping Manu/Tony healthy. Seems like they both are so prone to getting minor tweaks and injuries. I cringe every time I see Parker hit the floor on a drive.

[will_spurs]

What's your worry level with Ginobili? I'm probably at a 2.5 out of 10 (10 being most worried) given what I saw in game 1. He seemed to get to the rim at will pretty easily, although his layups were clearly shot under duress/intimidation. Fortunately our bigs were able to follow up with easy put-backs on at least two Ginobili drives to the rim.

I'm not worried about Manu at all. We know he can be sloppy at times, and that aspect is at his worst when the Spurs have a lead, not to mention a large lead. Manu is at his best when we're playing from behind.

[mrjap2x]

Parker one upping Chris Paul's point total last game.

[TampaDude]

Spurs in 5. Portland will win game 3 or 4 at home but that is it.

^ this, tbh

[Brazil]

Thanks Harlem nice read

[spurspokesman]

Spurs in 6. Portland will put a fight and OI believe spurs are equipped to deal with them

[AFBlue]

I won't overreact to this game and call for the sweep, but it is nice to see the team put together two solid performances in a row tbqh. Good analysis, but I would've liked more tbh, tbqh.

[Brazil]

I won't overreact to this game and call for the sweep, but it is nice to see the team put together two solid performances in a row tbqh. Good analysis, but I would've liked more tbh, tbqh.

It's one game I agree, better be prepared for game 2. I don't believe in a sweep but we will see.

As I mentionned there is an important fact a bit overlooked: on the long term the fact Blazers had a bit more rest than the Spurs is obviously good for them but for game 1, play right after game 7 is positive as you stay hot and has no rust. Game 2 will be a different animal as Blazers will have shaken the rust. They will score the ball more efficiently.

[pgardn]

After the game, both Damian Lillard and Robin Lopez commented on how the Spurs are a much scarier animal than Houston:lol..

Lopez mentioned how the Rockets only attack in isolation looks, and the Blazers weren't ready to defend the Spurs motion offense..

They got picked off on screens like it was some sort of magic.
Astounding.

That defense was the worst we have seen in any game in the playoffs. And they were not ready? How is that, teams know we move off the ball... Jeeezzz.

[will_spurs]

The Spurs transitioned between two teams that are very much alike. The Blazers transitioned between two teams with totally opposite conceptions of offense (100% iso vs ball movement/PnR). It was obviously easier for the Spurs to be ready.

[pgardn]

The Spurs transitioned between two teams that are very much alike. The Blazers transitioned between two teams with totally opposite conceptions of offense (100% iso vs ball movement/PnR). It was obviously easier for the Spurs to be ready.

Maybe so.
Defensive game planning out the window with youngsters. They actually have to have their head taken off to know what's coming. They were seriously running smack into screens on and off the ball.

[jag]

The bench showing up like today isn't a given, IMO. I hope it does, but you have to think they'll mostly be playing against the Portland's starters, and because of that, it's likely they're going to get outscored as the series wears on. For that reason, it'll be important that Gino plays well with that second unit. Hopefully his struggles today are more about having just a bad game than an actual matchup problem. I actually think he might have problems when a physical guy like Wes guards him, especially in Portland where the Spurs are unlikely to get much calls. But he's also a guy that can exploit the P&R well, and actually make Tiago a solid treat on offense too.

Portland has been ok with switching on the P&R. Their bigs aren't coming out to hedge though. They're dropping back, giving the inbetween shot, and contesting hard at the rim. It's similar to what they did with Tony. The difference is that Tony was happy to shoot the midrange J. Manu tried to force the ball at the rim - with his right hand.

They're giving him the midrange J and the floater. But if he decides to attack, they're trying to force him to finish with his right hand. He missed 4 layups either shooting with his right hand, or shooting an awkward left handed shot that should have been taken with his right. All were highly contested.

I don't think it matters who's guarding him. They'll just screen his defender and force a switch. Batum defended on 3 of his shots but ended up switching on two of those. Lillard also defended on two of his shots and switched on both. He needs to get comfortable shooting the midrange J/floater, or force the ball to the left side. I think his problem last night was mostly indecisiveness. I think he'll be fine.

[chrhawk]

How much more Baynes will we see in this series do you guys think?

[Nathan89]

Mavs had Harris, Ellis, Calderon, and Carter all looking to attack the rim or create space for a shot with a screen. If all the Blazers have is Lillard then they will be in some trouble.

[EVAY]

Terrific game thoughts and well written. Thanks very much.

I was expecting Portland to play much better than they did, and I was expecting them to make a run at us in the second or third quarters. I was amazed at how well the Spurs handled the blazers, but I agree with most posters in here…Portland will be back and will be much better and we will not always shoot as well as we did last night and they will not always shoot as poorly as they did.

Overall, though, the only real worry I have going forward is the fouls calls that LMA got. They were ridiculous, but that doesn't change the fact that my guess is that next game both LMA and Lillard will be told by Stotts to drive to the basket every time they get the ball. And if things go like they did tonight, that means our guys will be in foul trouble post haste. Tony Brothers is a waste of humanity as far as I'm concerned, but it doesn't mean he isn't doing what his bosses told him to do. And that is what concerns me.

[ginobilized]

Great stats and well written game thoughts! :tu

It was so good to see the Spurs look like the team we saw all season long. Dallas really messed with 'em. Portland is so bad defensively, I wasn't expecting that. I am very curious to see if Pop stays with Baynes in the rotation, reminiscent of the Laker's series last year. If Manu can have a strong game when Parker doesn't, Spurs will be tough to beat.

[Seventyniner]

Great writeup. :toast

It's good to see some arc on Duncan's jumper too.

[Oh, Gee!!]

I was more wary of Portland than Dallas. I was not expecting the relatively easy win.

[Mugen]

Game 2 is going to be a lot closer tbh. Blazers missed some easy looks in the 1st half and they were a bit shell-shocked the rest of the game.

They'll play better but I'm not sure they can fix their porous defense and lack of a bench in 48 hours tbh

[Capster]

Can't help wonder how much better Splitter would be if he would use his ARMS!!!!! WTF???????

[wildbill2u]

Just goes to show Pop's wizardry at picking matchups from among his bench players. Did anyone here really predict Baynes would get any time last night after 6 minutes in the whole Mavs series? Granted he mentioned giving our bigs some rest after a hard Mavs series, but Baynes was a totally unexpected move by Pop and it worked out great.

Goddamn, Pop is a crafty old sunavabitch.

[xmas1997]

Excellent points.
Was nice to see Tiago and, surprise surprise Baynes do so well!

[024]

Home court advantage really helped. The Spurs got to stay in San Antonio so they managed to take advantage of the small one day break.

Portland is playing like they are just happy to advance to the second round. I expect them to settle down a bit. I saw a lot of sloppy plays both on the defensive and offensive sides. Only Aldridge seemed to get his act together. The Spurs defense were sometimes jumbled as well, leaving players open. Once the Blazers review the tapes, they'll know how many times they missed an open man. So offensively, the Blazers should be fine, but defensively, as long as the Spurs role players continue showing up, the Spurs will outgun the Blazers this series. The Blazers just don't have the players to match up to the Spurs bench.

[quentin_compson]

Good write-up, Harlem. :tu

Props to Tony, that was his second really good game in a row. Him being aggressive and able to break down the opposing defense is key to the Spurs' success offensively. And mad props to Tiago. He has been a beast on defense so far in the playoffs, both one-on-one and team defense-wise. I was actually a little bit surprised to see the Spurs close out so well to the perimeter for contesting threes, but it's an important strategy against the Blazers.

As dominant as this win was for our guys, the quick start was helped by the fact that the Blazers couldn't buy a bucket pretty much from the opening tip. They won't always shoot this poorly or miss so many attempts at the rim.

[Raven]

:tu

[DPG21920]

Thanks again for the write up - keep them coming.

Like we discussed, this will come down to what's more reliable: Spurs PnR against POR or POR's ability to score on spot up's. Last night indicated that the Spurs answer (namely Tiago v LMA) is more reliable than POR's answer (Lillard/POR bigs in PnR defense).

This is a series in which rebound and TO's are huge. POR's defense precludes them from blowing the Spurs out if the Spurs take care of the ball and don't let POR get too many off rebounds/extra shots. Spurs won't win every game, but they should be in every game if they just focus on those two things. If they continue to run their offense and TP can continue to stay aggressive and hit his shot, Spurs should at least be in every single game.

[DesignatedT]

Does Portland start going over those screens on TP? Gosh TP ate them alive last night with all that room. The Spurs are setting screens a lot lower also compared to last series it seems. Those jumpers that TP is hitting are about 1 or 2 feet closer than he was getting v Dallas.

[DPG21920]

TP is not Devin Harris - you can't just go under screens on him. He will get the same looks (minus some layups) by going under than he was getting trying to fight over. Not only that, if you back up too far, he is still able to take space and get in close.

The Spurs multiple actions, cuts and spacing is what makes that strategy tough. TP is so damn fast that while going under will help some, if you don't help off your man and Spurs continue to set great screens, it makes it hard.

Spurs can just opt to go more post up's as well.

[unleashbaynes]

Looking at highlights, Baynes straight up BULLIED niggas yesterday. If the refs keep letting him do that the Blazers are in trouble.

[vanvannen]

That was a great post and analysis. Thank you!