What If This Is OKC’s Last Shot?

[ElNono]

What If This Is OKC’s Last Shot?

The Thunder may be writing another chapter in the book reminding us that greatness always has an expiration date
by Bill Simmons on May 14, 2014

There’s a poignant moment in Jonathan Abrams’s oral history about the 2002 Kings, right after the section covering their gut-wrenching Game 7 defeat, when a Sacramento employee named Devin Blankenship remembers his coworkers consoling one another. They were saying all the right things about losing to the Lakers. It’s just the beginning. This is the start of something bigger. You can’t win the big one until you lose a few tough ones. Their boss overheard and went the other way, wondering aloud, What if that was it? What if that was our shot?

That moment resonated for a simple reason: That WAS their shot. And that WAS it.

The boss wasn’t describing a “shot” as much as a window. If you’re blessed with Michael and Scottie in their mid-twenties, that window should last for a decade, as long as nothing funky happens. If you’re catching C-Webb right as he’s hitting his prime, and you’re surrounding him with quality veterans who connect with his unselfish playing style, maybe that’s four or five guaranteed years. If you’re teaming up Pierce and Garnett and Allen at the tail end of their primes, you’re publicly hoping for five healthy years and secretly praying for three. Every A-list contender has a built-in window, and almost always, you know what it is. When that window slams shut well before you’re ready, you never really get over it.

Will we remember Oklahoma City that way someday? We know that it’s Kevin Durant’s seventh season and his sixth with Russell Westbrook. We know they’re playing for a small-market franchise that actively avoids the luxury tax. We know Durant’s contract expires in 2016, and Westbrook’s deal expires one year later. We know Westbrook endured three knee surgeries in the past 12 months. We know that bad luck comes in all shapes and sizes. We know the West is loaded, and we know LeBron is never going away. We know they easily could have blown the Memphis series, and we know the bumbling officials saved their season Tuesday night.

We overrate youth and potential with sports, movies, TV, music, art and even politics — it’s more enjoyable to imagine what something might become. We envision the Thunder overpowering LeBron’s Heat in Durant’s MVP season because that’s the age-old NBA formula, right? Young guys work their way up, learn a few lessons, suffer some pain, finally overpower the incumbents, battle all comers for the next few years … and then the cycle repeats.

That’s your best-case scenario for the Thunder. The other scenarios aren’t as pretty. Just like we overrate youth and potential, we underrate injury luck, unfortunate breaks, untimely trades, the Disease of More, greed and egos, poor coaching and plain old bad luck. The Thunder could definitely topple San Antonio and Miami next month, but they’re just as likely to not win a single title with Durant and Westbrook. The S.I. Vault, Basketball-Reference.com, dozens of NBA books and thousands of YouTube clips deliver the same message: Things are just as likely to go wrong as right. On paper, OKC should evolve into this generation’s version of the 1990s Bulls: Durant as Jordan, Westbrook as Pippen, and Ibaka as Grant/Rodman. It’s a star-driven league with the least amount of playoff variance in any professional sport. When you have a top-two player, a top-eight player and a top-25 player on one team, you should definitely win a ring.

Unfortunately, you never know when “The Rains of Castamere” will start playing. A similar window opened after Game 7 of the 1962 Finals, when the Lakers came within Frank Selvy’s errant 15-footer of upending Bill Russell’s budding dynasty. That Lakers team employed 27-year-old Elgin Baylor and 23-year-old Jerry West, two of the league’s best five players. (Sound familiar?) Nobody was thinking after the ’62 Finals, What if that was it? But they spent the next two years trying to find a good enough center, then Baylor wrecked his knee during the ’65 playoffs. So much for Elgin and Jerry owning the NBA. They never won a championship together.

Read more:
http://grantland.com/features/simmons-oklahoma-city-thunder-nba-championship/

[Katherine Robinson]

It is their last shot, Durant will go serve a better player than Westbrook.

[mystargtr34]

Hopefully Durant bolts East.. wonder which teams have cap space in 2015.

[Franklin]

If it isn't OKC's last shot, it would then turn out to be Lebron's...

[313]

Unfortunately, you never know when “The Rains of Castamere” will start playing.
:lmao

[Chinook]

That was a damned good article. I have no idea if OKC will get over the hump. I can't imagine them getting much better unless a Kawhi-like player falls into their laps.

[dg7md]

OKC are quite literally the old Supersonics team. Payton, Kemp, Schrempf — great, legendary players that could never bring home a ring.

Even if by some chance OKC does beat the Spurs in the WCF this year, there is no way they are beating the Heat. Hell, I think they'd have issues with the Pacers if by some chance the Heat lose.

Letting Harden go was the last stand for the Thunder as far as I am concerned, it will be hard for them to find another player to fit into their system quite like he did.

[Strategic]

Nice comments. When Jordan was Durant's age he had already ceased being a top two player, no one else compared to MJ. Taking away Ibaka's foot speed and replacing it with the lumbering Perkins, Collison and Adams should be a death dagger for the Thunder this year, if not against the Spurs, then likely against Chris Bosh and the Miami Heat. I know Westbrook gets the votes but I don't rate him as a top ten player. The move might shake the OKC Devon tower to it's foundation, but Presti might consider calling New Orleans and offering Russell for Anthony Davis, plus change. Davis would be someone KD could tutor, instead of stand and watch like he's sometimes inclined to do when Westbrook's playing hero. Besides that we all know how Westbrook likes to dressy dress. He would fit in perfectly in New Orleans.

[The Batman]

Durant could bolt.

[Mal]

Fuck them

[TDMVPDPOY]

the one thing the nba fucked up on is marketing these fkn clowns as some rivalry with lebron, it wasnt one and it never be one...

they couldve made a heat spurs rivalry back in 06 till today from shaq/wade vs duncan prime spurs, then the hand over to the cheat team that as individuals bosh has been tds bitch and lebron also...

now the buildup for the last 3 seasons couldve been all spurs vs heat finals....but no, they had to pushed a team that has no business being there

[UZER]

the one thing the nba fucked up on is marketing these fkn clowns as some rivalry with lebron, it wasnt one and it never be one...

they couldve made a heat spurs rivalry back in 06 till today from shaq/wade vs duncan prime spurs, then the hand over to the cheat team that as individuals bosh has been tds bitch and lebron also...

now the buildup for the last 3 seasons couldve been all spurs vs heat finals....but no, they had to pushed a team that has no business being there

They always do this. It was just a few years ago they big push was Lebron vs Kobe, but that didn't happen either.

[z0sa]

Id be very surprised if this is their last shot. Durant isnt going anywhere, so that leaves at least 2 years of contention provided Chuckbrook's knee doesnt implode. Im betting Westbrook resigns in 16 and they continue their reign of dominance over the west. Of course, itll be up to Presti and co. to make the correct decisions retooling around them.

[Captivus]

This isnt OKC last shot, if they won win this year, they will have at least one more.
They will still be a dangerous team next season.
Injury is always a possibility, so in that case, yes, this could their last chance. We can say the same thing about any team.
I do think a player as good as Durant won stay if they don't win. RW...maybe. He looks like a person that would rather lose and be the best player on his team than win and be the 2nd scoring option.

[UZER]

Westbrooks knee is gonna blow soon because of the way he plays. They better get one quick.

[spurraider21]

Given Jackson's progress it's interesting to speculate how good they'd be with Jacksom-Harden-Durant-Ibaka instead of Westbrook tbh

[Killakobe81]

Grantland has some good stuff. Prefer Simmons as a writer over an analyst.

[spurraider21]

Grantland has some good stuff. Prefer Simmons as a writer over an analyst.
yeah, simmons is amazing on paper, disappoints on TV. i thought the game he and jalen color commentated was more fun to watch than typical nights though

[Mugen]

yeah, simmons is amazing on paper, disappoints on TV. i thought the game he and jalen color commentated was more fun to watch than typical nights though

yeah, you would think that.

[spurraider21]

yeah, you would think that.
are you gna pull this shit everytime? well fuck it then

http://rjseeley.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/sheldon-throwing-papers-gif.gif

[Mugen]

are you gna pull this shit everytime? well fuck it then

http://rjseeley.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/sheldon-throwing-papers-gif.gif

Get used to it, buddy.

[Robz4000]

are you gna pull this shit everytime? well fuck it then

http://rjseeley.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/sheldon-throwing-papers-gif.gif

Could be worse; at least you don't wear white pants while hanging out with men at clubs.

[Mugen]

Could be worse; at least you don't wear white pants while hanging out with men at clubs.

spurraider is Armenian, I'm sure there's more than a couple of white pants in that closet for when he hits up the hookah spot tbh......

[spurraider21]

tbh i've never smoked a thing, and i'd sooner blaze than smoke hookah. at least there's a point to it besides wasting money :lol

[Mugen]

As long as you don't deny the white pants tbh.....

[Robz4000]

Smoking hookah is pretty chill tbh, nothing faggy about it (unless you do so as my boy Mugen described...).

[spurraider21]

As long as you don't deny the white pants tbh.....
meh, with the ragging i did on the technique thread, my views on white pants are pretty clear

[spurraider21]

Smoking hookah is pretty chill tbh, nothing faggy about it (unless you do so as my boy Mugen (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=15519) described...).
its just a giant phallic reference to me

[Mugen]

Bend over, I'll show ya a phallic reference.

[UZER]

I never thought I would say this, but at this point I'd rather watch the Espn studio crew because they actually attempt to talk basketball. TNT has become nothing but stupid interruptions and cutting up left and right. Barkley doesn't even care anymore and Shaq just wants to be a clown.

[313]

I never thought I would say this, but at this point I'd rather watch the Espn studio crew because they actually attempt to talk basketball. TNT has become nothing but stupid interruptions and cutting up left and right. Barkley doesn't even care anymore and Shaq just wants to be a clown.
Yeah, they have to pull back on the joking a little bit.

[Leetonidas]

Nice comments. When Jordan was Durant's age he had already ceased being a top two player, no one else compared to MJ. Taking away Ibaka's foot speed and replacing it with the lumbering Perkins, Collison and Adams should be a death dagger for the Thunder this year, if not against the Spurs, then likely against Chris Bosh and the Miami Heat. I know Westbrook gets the votes but I don't rate him as a top ten player. The move might shake the OKC Devon tower to it's foundation, but Presti might consider calling New Orleans and offering Russell for Anthony Davis, plus change. Davis would be someone KD could tutor, instead of stand and watch like he's sometimes inclined to do when Westbrook's playing hero. Besides that we all know how Westbrook likes to dressy dress. He would fit in perfectly in New Orleans.
New Orleans would laugh out loud and hang the phone up. Westbrook for the next great big man? You gotta be shitting me :lol

[spurraider21]

:lol Westbrook for Davis is asinine enough... and you are pitching westbrook for Davis AND something?

[Strategic]

New Orleans would laugh out loud and hang the phone up. Westbrook for the next great big man? You gotta be shitting me :lol
What did New Orleans take for Chris Paul two short years ago?

[ambchang]

Chris Paul was traded because the league was prepping to sell the team.

[will_spurs]

That was a damned good article.

It could have been a "damned good article" if he had had the presence of mind to use the example of San Antonio (OKC's opponent in the next series, so it ties in perfectly with his argument) as a counter-example: a window that started with Duncan and the "surprise" 99 championship, with an expiration date: "whenever D-Rob retires"; but got extended with the "lucky" drafting of 2 future HOFers from abroad; closed again at the end of the 2000s; and is, somehow, still open in a time-defying manner.

As it is, it's just a decent article.

[Chinook]

It could have been a "damned good article" if he had had the presence of mind to use the example of San Antonio (OKC's opponent in the next series, so it ties in perfectly with his argument) as a counter-example: a window that started with Duncan and the "surprise" 99 championship, with an expiration date: "whenever D-Rob retires"; but got extended with the "lucky" drafting of 2 future HOFers from abroad; closed again at the end of the 2000s; and is, somehow, still open in a time-defying manner.

As it is, it's just a decent article.

I don't need a Spurs reference to like an article. While the Spurs' window is an interesting contrast, the article had enough examples to get the point across. It was very well written and well supported.

[Leetonidas]

What did New Orleans take for Chris Paul two short years ago?

Yes, because trading a guard who wanted out after never getting them past the second round and had knee issues is the same as trading a 20 year old big man already putting up 20/10 who is destined to be a HOF talent on a rookie contract. don't know shit about basketball do you :lol

[Leetonidas]

Chris Paul was traded because the league was prepping to sell the team.

Yep, it was also signed off on by the NBA, not necessarily NO who wanted to trade him to the Lakers.

lol at the notion that NO would trade Davis because they traded Paul a couple years ago :lmao

[spurraider21]

Paul wanted out, and the NBA was selling off the hornets. In the proposed lakers trade, they were going to get Dragic, Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, and Lamar Odom. This would have made them a fringe playoff team, if that, with little upside, and a high payroll. Instead they ended up with the clippers trade which got them Gordon, Aminu, kaman, and a lottery pick. With a lower payroll, a guy they thought they could market as a "cornerstone" in Gordon, plus a lottery pick, it made them more desirable to a buyer than the laker/rockets deal.

The circumstances with are nothing like the Paul situation...

[HI-FI]

the one thing the nba fucked up on is marketing these fkn clowns as some rivalry with lebron, it wasnt one and it never be one...

they couldve made a heat spurs rivalry back in 06 till today from shaq/wade vs duncan prime spurs, then the hand over to the cheat team that as individuals bosh has been tds bitch and lebron also...

now the buildup for the last 3 seasons couldve been all spurs vs heat finals....but no, they had to pushed a team that has no business being there
still dropping truth bombs I see.

[ElNono]

still dropping truth bombs I see.

sup dude

[HI-FI]

sup dude
sup man. i was out in Vegas, i actually took my shitty netbook along to post here and email family, but then didn't even use it once. I just needed a break from ST and life. got terrible sleep out there, I always do, alcohol fucks up my sleep and I think the bleach on the bedsheets bothers me. But I always have a love/hate thing with Vegas :lol
I saw your boy Rod Stewart in concert, pretty good show imo.

[ElNono]

sup man. i was out in Vegas, i actually took my shitty netbook along to post here and email family, but then didn't even use it once. I just needed a break from ST and life. got terrible sleep out there, I always do, alcohol fucks up my sleep and I think the bleach on the bedsheets bothers me. But I always have a love/hate thing with Vegas :lol
I saw your boy Rod Stewart in concert, pretty good show imo.

:lol glad you had a good time... you didn't miss much, tbh

[HI-FI]

:lol glad you had a good time... you didn't miss much, tbh
thanks bro. It was good to recharge the batteries and recalibrate. I'm sure we'll all be going through some lows and highs so I'm getting ready.

[ElNono]

thanks bro. It was good to recharge the batteries and recalibrate. I'm sure we'll all be going through some lows and highs so I'm getting ready.

you should start a game thread, tbh... mine worked out pretty well...

[HI-FI]

you should start a game thread, tbh... mine worked out pretty well...
yours' was pretty badass, I don't know how to do all that. I figured it would work out well. if I'm feeling upbeat and good I'll start one, if no one else interjects.

[Mugen]

Is it the real Rod Stewart or do they hologram him onto the stage like they did with 2pac....?

[HI-FI]

Is it the real Rod Stewart or do they hologram him onto the stage like they did with 2pac....?
It was him. Looks better for his age than a lot of rock stars. Nig has had 8 children throughout 5 different decades, so mad respect. I mainly went for family reasons but it wasn't bad. I kept hoping he'd play Ooh La La but he stuck to the hits. Hence the show was called "Hits". :lol

[Mugen]

It was him. Looks better for his age than a lot of rock stars. Nig has had 8 children throughout 5 different decades, so mad respect. I mainly went for family reasons but it wasn't bad. I kept hoping he'd play Ooh La La but he stuck to the hits. Hence the show was called "Hits". :lol

Glad you had a good time brah. I'll be heading to Vegas within the next couple of weeks as well.

[HI-FI]

Glad you had a good time brah. I'll be heading to Vegas within the next couple of weeks as well.
:tu
give all the hoity-toity sluts my regards.

[Mugen]

I'll give em more than that tbh. :toast

[Strategic]

Yes, because trading a guard who wanted out after never getting them past the second round and had knee issues is the same as trading a 20 year old big man already putting up 20/10 who is destined to be a HOF talent on a rookie contract. don't know shit about basketball do you :lolGuess you didn't pay much attention to my statement. Just because Paul wanted out of New Orleans means to you that they give him away? Don't know much about business, do you? New Orleans is not too well known for getting much bang for the buck. You must be quite the seer if you're assured that unibrow is a hall a famer.

[Leetonidas]

And Westbrook has made no comments about wanting out. What you're saying is just babble and CP3 being traded after whining to the media forever means nothing and it is completely fucking retarded to think NO would do the same with Davis because of Paul. :lmao Just stop dude, you don't know what the fuck you're talking about and made a retarded statement. Just quit before you embarrass yourself anymore, gnsf :lol

[Splits]

http://i.minus.com/iDpQfyxk3oF39.gif

[spurraider21]

of boxing matches had that many uncontested punches like they do in the rocky movies, i'd probably actually be a boxing fan. instead you have to sit through an hour of guys punching each others arms

[ElNono]

That was a damned good article. I have no idea if OKC will get over the hump. I can't imagine them getting much better unless a Kawhi-like player falls into their laps.

I think falling short again will force them to make a move, IMO

[Chinook]

I think falling short again will force them to make a move, IMO

They have plenty of ammo. They just need to be content to go into the tax. I do like the idea of them trying to get Pau Gasol. They could do that, use their TE to get a player like Wilson Chandler and still have the MLE to get a scoring guard (in addition to keeping at least one of their draft picks). But they can't keep being cheap when their core keeps getting more and more expensive.

[Malik Hairston]

They have plenty of ammo. They just need to be content to go into the tax. I do like the idea of them trying to get Pau Gasol. They could do that, use their TE to get a player like Wilson Chandler and still have the MLE to get a scoring guard (in addition to keeping at least one of their draft picks). But they can't keep being cheap when their core keeps getting more and more expensive.

They really aren't going anywhere with Brooks, though, especially in today's NBA..ISO-oriented coaches are being phased out, it doesn't work in today's league, and it'll continue to fail as more organizations are looking for a more team-oriented approach..

[Chinook]

They really aren't going anywhere with Brooks, though, especially in today's NBA..ISO-oriented coaches are being phased out, it doesn't work in today's league, and it'll continue to fail as more organizations are looking for a more team-oriented approach..

Yeah. I think they triangle would be a good offense for OKC (especially Durant) if they can get a low-post scorer to pair with Ibaka. On that subject, Coach Nick seems to think that Serge may struggle to learn a complex offense, as he often seems lost in Brooks' simplistic scheme. That would certainly be a huge hindrance to the Thunder improving.

I wonder if OKC were to fire Brooks if they'd consider Fisher for job. Kind of an Avery Johnson--like thing.

[baseline bum]

of boxing matches had that many uncontested punches like they do in the rocky movies, i'd probably actually be a boxing fan. instead you have to sit through an hour of guys punching each others arms

If boxing was like in the movies everyone's career would last one fight tbh

[Chinook]

What if?

[Robz4000]

Definitely seems in the realm of consideration now. Both Westchimp and Durbeta may never be the same.

[Venti Quattro]

Definitely seems in the realm of consideration now. Both Westchimp and Durbeta may never be the same.

It's not them. It's the scrubs who are surrounding them. Presti didn't do shit to improve their roster, to prepare for such occurrences. They just assumed that Westbrook and Durant will be there forever. Well they're not there, and without them the Thunder roster looks like Ibaka and a bunch of D-Leaguers.

[Robz4000]

It's not them. It's the scrubs who are surrounding them. Presti didn't do shit to improve their roster, to prepare for such occurrences. They just assumed that Westbrook and Durant will be there forever. Well they're not there, and without them the Thunder roster looks like Ibaka and a bunch of D-Leaguers.

Its all of the above tbh. They stopped planning for the future to live in the now after the Harden trade. Weird turn of events.

[Venti Quattro]

Its all of the above tbh. They stopped planning for the future to live in the now after the Harden trade. Weird turn of events.

Tbh Durant and Westbrook will be fine when they return. Now it's on the coach to manage their minutes. But how can he do that if there's a huge dip in talent after the two? Scott Brooks may be an idiot but he has no choice but to manage both of his stars' minutes, especially that period of initial games after their recovery from injury. He's gonna have no choice but to play those bench players who have no business being in the NBA.

Even Reggie Jackson, who is the closest thing to a really decent OKC player outside of RWB, KD and Ibaka, is also injured.

[TDMVPDPOY]

lol their window was never open, the only time it was open was when the spurs allowed to make the finals only to be exposed

lol nba marketing durant like the 2nd coming to challenge lebron/cheat team...

how fast only took a few years for that team to be broken up, soon kd and westbrick is bolting that shithole once they are FA...

[Seventyniner]

It's not them. It's the scrubs who are surrounding them. Presti didn't do shit to improve their roster, to prepare for such occurrences. They just assumed that Westbrook and Durant will be there forever. Well they're not there, and without them the Thunder roster looks like Ibaka and a bunch of D-Leaguers.

The injuries could really be a blessing in disguise. Now Brooks has no choice but to play his depth. They'll win far fewer games, but not enough to knock them out of the playoffs, and if they run into a situation in the postseason where neither Westbrook nor Durant is on the floor, they won't straight up panic.

All it will cost them, imo, is HCA. They likely won't have HCA for any round.

[RsxPiimp]

What if?

I hope OKC drops to 7th or 8th seed in the playoffs. Would be nice to see them upset the Spurs :lol

[Chinook]

I hope OKC drops to 7th or 8th seed in the playoffs. Would be nice to see them upset the Spurs :lol

Only way they're upsetting the Spurs is if Pop and Co. expect a hard series and are disappointed.

[Spurs 4 The Win]

I hope OKC drops to 7th or 8th seed in the playoffs. Would be nice to see them upset the Spurs :lol

Rascal?

[ElNono]

Hate on Simmons all you want, but he might've been onto something here, tbh....

[lefty]

:lol damn

[Cry Havoc]

Hate on Simmons all you want, but he might've been onto something here, tbh....

Simmons is fucking awesome. Sure, he's a homer and patently wrong about stuff, but at least he gives real takes and doesn't hedge on them, at least not all the time.

[cd021]

Simmons is fucking awesome. Sure, he's a homer and patently wrong about stuff, but at least he gives real takes and doesn't hedge on them, at least not all the time.

He's pretty solid, just when on tv or with Jalen he sounds like a moron.

[baseline bum]

Hate on Simmons all you want, but he might've been onto something here, tbh....

Damn that's gonna be sick seeing Dominoes playing with Beal, Wall, and Gortat in 2016.