cd021
05-18-2014, 10:41 PM
-Cut Turnovers, Maximize Free Throws-The Spurs average just 11.9 turnovers per game this post season (2nd to Miami among remaining teams) that's despite having the most possessions per game. Keeping turnovers low, specifically turnover that leads to transition opportunities is crucial against OKC.
The Spurs were the 3rd best defensive team in both the regular and now the post season in terms of Defensive Rtg. Forcing teams to score in the half court bodes well for the Spurs.
The added bonus for taking care of the ball is extra scoring opportunities, even if the Spurs give up offensive rebounds on the other end, cutting turnovers helps even the disparity in field goal attempts.
The Spurs only shoot 23 FTs a game this post season, the 2nd worst of the remaining teams. Hitting only 73% isn't going to cut it.
If the Spurs were to take 25 foul shots they'd convert on only 18 (on average) of them compared to Oklahoma City which would hit about 21 of the 25.
San Antonio can't shoot that poorly, given how few opportunities they get. The Thunder (+4 attempts per game) gets to the line far more often. Even if they aren't hitting from 3 they are able to keep games close by converting.
Challenging Their Defense-Parker's play is obviously key to how OKC chooses to defend the Spurs. If Westbrook can't handle Parker then Brooks would need to play Sefolsha (who is a usually benign offensively) especially late in games. If Westbrook can handle, then OKC may play Jackson beside him. Though that may not be quite as dangerous as it sounds with Durant sharing the floor as well. Jackson would likely spend the majority of the time off ball and has been a poor 3pt shooter (save for 13 games this postseason)
Jackson has had big games against the Spurs this season. Stopping him is a must. Duncan and or Splitter, will almost always be on the floor for rim protection. Danny Green and Patty Mills will likely to see time defending him on the wing. Mills isn’t a great defender but uses his speed to hassle opposing guards. Greens length and lateral quickness should definitely bother him as well.
Butler usurped Lamb in their rotation, could see more minutes with Durant shifting to PF. He has reinvented his game as spot up shooter, despite that he has struggled.
His percentages from the field dropped from 40% to 30% in the postseason, along with his minutes 27 to 24 mpg. His 3pt shooting has also dipped fro 44% to 38 % 3pt.
If the Thunder opt to go small Diaw's versatility could be valuable. He could allow the Spurs stay big with Parker-Manu-Leonard and Duncan while hiding out on Butler (who attempts less than half of his shots from inside of the paint)
This could allow the Spurs to attack Butler on the offensive end in the post or even Durant if he is matched up with Diaw.
If the Thunder attempt to trap Parker Diaw could be valuable in that regard, Spotting up at the 3pt line after setting a screen gives Parker an easy outlet who can knock down an outside shot or drive to score or kick out to a shooter.
If Duncan is playing particularly well OKC may be compelled to keep Perkins on the floor late, despite him being one of the worst offensive Centers in the NBA. (Offensive Rtg of 82, 100 in the postseason) Duncan can help off him and live with the results.
This time around Ibaka absence is massive, The Spurs struggled getting anything easy when he was on the floor and he seemed to specifically effect Duncan, Splitter, Diaw and Parker's game. The Spurs should shoot much better in the painted area, while Collision is mobile enough to cut off drives and take charges, He isn't great on the glass and at 6'9 could struggle defending Duncan, Diaw or even Splitter in the post.
Duncan still may not be able to effectively score in the post against Perkins but he could be in foul trouble with extended minutes leading to more favorable match ups with Collison and Adams.
Team Defense-The Spurs can live with Westbrook or Durant having a big game but can't allow both to have big games at the same time. Westbrook has a tendency to get trigger happy The Spurs can live him shooting 20+ times so long as Durant doesn't take nearly as many shots.
Durant’s efficiency as a scoring is stellar: but can be passive at times and defer to Westbrook. If the Spurs can get away with hassling Durant and taking away some of his free throw opportunities the Spurs stand a chance of at least containing him.
The Thunders big man rotation (Ibaka, Perkins, Collison and Adams) averaged 25.1 ppg in the regular season and 21 ppg this post season. Ibaka accounted for 15.5 ppg and 12.2 in the playoffs.
If Brooks starts Collison and Perkins then could be significantly easier to defense. Ibaka was the 3rd leading scorer at 12ppg and an elite mid range shooter. Collison has a mid range shot but isn't nearly as good. Splitter should sag off
and work with Duncan to pack the paint and attempt to cut off drives (especially from Westbrook and Jackson) Westbrook had Ibaka as escape if his drives couldn't get him a clean look at the basket. The Spurs will live with the results of any open Collision/Adams jumpers. Green will have a big task of hassling Westbrook but has had plenty of success against him.
Westbrook (last 7 meetings Vs the Spurs)-39% FG, 83% FT (6 FTA per game), 22.2 PPG, 20.7 FGA (one of those games Green missed with a broken finger, a 27 point outing for WB)
Sharing The Offensive Load -Unlike the Thunder, who rely primarily on Durant and Westbrook to carry the offense with Ibaka and Jackson chipping in, The Spurs have more balance on the offensive end.
With Parkers’ recent injury, uncertainty, and Manu’s inconsistent play the Spurs are going to need additional help offensively to beat the Thunder. Duncan has played well against the Thunder, but can’t be counted on to be more than a second option, particularly when being guarded by Perkins.
Duncan (Last 8 Games VS. OKC, following the 2012 WCF)- 31 MPG, 16 ppg, 43.3%, 7.8 RPG, 1.75 BPG
Leonard has had strong games against the Thunder
(Since the '12 WCF)
Leonard-31.8 MPG, 13.5 PPG, 43% FG 5.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 2.8 SPG, 2.6 PF
In addition to being counted on to defend Durant, his offense will be crucial to diversifying the offensive attack. He will likely play significantly more minutes than the 1st two rounds
Per 36 Minutes-52.5 % FG, 41% 3PT, 14 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.1 SPG, 2.7 PFPG
If the Big 4 can average 65 ppg (approximately 16 per player, slightly better than their current playoff output of 62 per game) with contributions from Diaw, Belinelli, Mills and Splitter, the Spurs willbe much more difficult to defend without being able to hone in on a specific player.
Bench Vs Bench
Ibaka’s injury is a kick to the gut for the Thunders rotation. Perkins can’t be relied upon to play major minutes without negative consequences. Teams ignore him offensively and there are concerns with foul trouble.
Collision is a very good defender but not as good of a rim protector nor is he as good of an offensive threat. Adams will possibly see a bigger minute share but has a sky high foul rate and also isn’t much of an factor on offense.
The Thunder may opt to go small rather than add a fourth big into the rotation (Thabeet or even Jones III) Durant could see additional time at PF.
Mills and Belinelli improved upon their performances between the first and second rounds. The duo has combined for roughly 15ppg in 32 mpg. Belinelli is hitting nearly 48% of his 3’s while Mills is shooting 37% from down town.
Manu’s inconsistency has been somewhat troubling against Dallas he played particularly well but struggled against Portland. His 3pt shooting has dipped to 30% while hitting only 39% of his overall shots. The Thunders defense has been rather sporadic post all-star break and it isn’t likely be be anymore consistent without Ibaka and Collisions timely rotations shifting into the starting lineup.
Compared to our 2012 Bench of Neal-Ginobili-Jackson-Splitter this incarnation appears to be better.
Mills is having a career year and is excellent offensive weapon off the bench. He can score in p&R and is an excellent spot up shooter. Belinelli is a lethal shooter who can create some and isn't limited to being a spot up shooter. Manu likely won't reach the level he played with in 2012 but has more help and doesn't have to worry about Ibaka at the rim. He shouldn't be counted upon to carry the Spurs offensive load. Diaw can do a little bit of everything from 3pt shooting to drives and post ups. He is an excellent passer and the Spurs offense seems to be at its best when he is on the floor (he is 2nd in post season net rating with a +19)
Prediction Spurs in 6 games
The Spurs were the 3rd best defensive team in both the regular and now the post season in terms of Defensive Rtg. Forcing teams to score in the half court bodes well for the Spurs.
The added bonus for taking care of the ball is extra scoring opportunities, even if the Spurs give up offensive rebounds on the other end, cutting turnovers helps even the disparity in field goal attempts.
The Spurs only shoot 23 FTs a game this post season, the 2nd worst of the remaining teams. Hitting only 73% isn't going to cut it.
If the Spurs were to take 25 foul shots they'd convert on only 18 (on average) of them compared to Oklahoma City which would hit about 21 of the 25.
San Antonio can't shoot that poorly, given how few opportunities they get. The Thunder (+4 attempts per game) gets to the line far more often. Even if they aren't hitting from 3 they are able to keep games close by converting.
Challenging Their Defense-Parker's play is obviously key to how OKC chooses to defend the Spurs. If Westbrook can't handle Parker then Brooks would need to play Sefolsha (who is a usually benign offensively) especially late in games. If Westbrook can handle, then OKC may play Jackson beside him. Though that may not be quite as dangerous as it sounds with Durant sharing the floor as well. Jackson would likely spend the majority of the time off ball and has been a poor 3pt shooter (save for 13 games this postseason)
Jackson has had big games against the Spurs this season. Stopping him is a must. Duncan and or Splitter, will almost always be on the floor for rim protection. Danny Green and Patty Mills will likely to see time defending him on the wing. Mills isn’t a great defender but uses his speed to hassle opposing guards. Greens length and lateral quickness should definitely bother him as well.
Butler usurped Lamb in their rotation, could see more minutes with Durant shifting to PF. He has reinvented his game as spot up shooter, despite that he has struggled.
His percentages from the field dropped from 40% to 30% in the postseason, along with his minutes 27 to 24 mpg. His 3pt shooting has also dipped fro 44% to 38 % 3pt.
If the Thunder opt to go small Diaw's versatility could be valuable. He could allow the Spurs stay big with Parker-Manu-Leonard and Duncan while hiding out on Butler (who attempts less than half of his shots from inside of the paint)
This could allow the Spurs to attack Butler on the offensive end in the post or even Durant if he is matched up with Diaw.
If the Thunder attempt to trap Parker Diaw could be valuable in that regard, Spotting up at the 3pt line after setting a screen gives Parker an easy outlet who can knock down an outside shot or drive to score or kick out to a shooter.
If Duncan is playing particularly well OKC may be compelled to keep Perkins on the floor late, despite him being one of the worst offensive Centers in the NBA. (Offensive Rtg of 82, 100 in the postseason) Duncan can help off him and live with the results.
This time around Ibaka absence is massive, The Spurs struggled getting anything easy when he was on the floor and he seemed to specifically effect Duncan, Splitter, Diaw and Parker's game. The Spurs should shoot much better in the painted area, while Collision is mobile enough to cut off drives and take charges, He isn't great on the glass and at 6'9 could struggle defending Duncan, Diaw or even Splitter in the post.
Duncan still may not be able to effectively score in the post against Perkins but he could be in foul trouble with extended minutes leading to more favorable match ups with Collison and Adams.
Team Defense-The Spurs can live with Westbrook or Durant having a big game but can't allow both to have big games at the same time. Westbrook has a tendency to get trigger happy The Spurs can live him shooting 20+ times so long as Durant doesn't take nearly as many shots.
Durant’s efficiency as a scoring is stellar: but can be passive at times and defer to Westbrook. If the Spurs can get away with hassling Durant and taking away some of his free throw opportunities the Spurs stand a chance of at least containing him.
The Thunders big man rotation (Ibaka, Perkins, Collison and Adams) averaged 25.1 ppg in the regular season and 21 ppg this post season. Ibaka accounted for 15.5 ppg and 12.2 in the playoffs.
If Brooks starts Collison and Perkins then could be significantly easier to defense. Ibaka was the 3rd leading scorer at 12ppg and an elite mid range shooter. Collison has a mid range shot but isn't nearly as good. Splitter should sag off
and work with Duncan to pack the paint and attempt to cut off drives (especially from Westbrook and Jackson) Westbrook had Ibaka as escape if his drives couldn't get him a clean look at the basket. The Spurs will live with the results of any open Collision/Adams jumpers. Green will have a big task of hassling Westbrook but has had plenty of success against him.
Westbrook (last 7 meetings Vs the Spurs)-39% FG, 83% FT (6 FTA per game), 22.2 PPG, 20.7 FGA (one of those games Green missed with a broken finger, a 27 point outing for WB)
Sharing The Offensive Load -Unlike the Thunder, who rely primarily on Durant and Westbrook to carry the offense with Ibaka and Jackson chipping in, The Spurs have more balance on the offensive end.
With Parkers’ recent injury, uncertainty, and Manu’s inconsistent play the Spurs are going to need additional help offensively to beat the Thunder. Duncan has played well against the Thunder, but can’t be counted on to be more than a second option, particularly when being guarded by Perkins.
Duncan (Last 8 Games VS. OKC, following the 2012 WCF)- 31 MPG, 16 ppg, 43.3%, 7.8 RPG, 1.75 BPG
Leonard has had strong games against the Thunder
(Since the '12 WCF)
Leonard-31.8 MPG, 13.5 PPG, 43% FG 5.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 2.8 SPG, 2.6 PF
In addition to being counted on to defend Durant, his offense will be crucial to diversifying the offensive attack. He will likely play significantly more minutes than the 1st two rounds
Per 36 Minutes-52.5 % FG, 41% 3PT, 14 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.1 SPG, 2.7 PFPG
If the Big 4 can average 65 ppg (approximately 16 per player, slightly better than their current playoff output of 62 per game) with contributions from Diaw, Belinelli, Mills and Splitter, the Spurs willbe much more difficult to defend without being able to hone in on a specific player.
Bench Vs Bench
Ibaka’s injury is a kick to the gut for the Thunders rotation. Perkins can’t be relied upon to play major minutes without negative consequences. Teams ignore him offensively and there are concerns with foul trouble.
Collision is a very good defender but not as good of a rim protector nor is he as good of an offensive threat. Adams will possibly see a bigger minute share but has a sky high foul rate and also isn’t much of an factor on offense.
The Thunder may opt to go small rather than add a fourth big into the rotation (Thabeet or even Jones III) Durant could see additional time at PF.
Mills and Belinelli improved upon their performances between the first and second rounds. The duo has combined for roughly 15ppg in 32 mpg. Belinelli is hitting nearly 48% of his 3’s while Mills is shooting 37% from down town.
Manu’s inconsistency has been somewhat troubling against Dallas he played particularly well but struggled against Portland. His 3pt shooting has dipped to 30% while hitting only 39% of his overall shots. The Thunders defense has been rather sporadic post all-star break and it isn’t likely be be anymore consistent without Ibaka and Collisions timely rotations shifting into the starting lineup.
Compared to our 2012 Bench of Neal-Ginobili-Jackson-Splitter this incarnation appears to be better.
Mills is having a career year and is excellent offensive weapon off the bench. He can score in p&R and is an excellent spot up shooter. Belinelli is a lethal shooter who can create some and isn't limited to being a spot up shooter. Manu likely won't reach the level he played with in 2012 but has more help and doesn't have to worry about Ibaka at the rim. He shouldn't be counted upon to carry the Spurs offensive load. Diaw can do a little bit of everything from 3pt shooting to drives and post ups. He is an excellent passer and the Spurs offense seems to be at its best when he is on the floor (he is 2nd in post season net rating with a +19)
Prediction Spurs in 6 games