Analysis of Spurs Perimeter Defense against OKC

[Chinook]

tl;dr: Look at the charts. Leonard was pretty good but not the best defender for the Spurs, Duncan’s a borderline liability, and jumping at three-point shooters is the smart strategy.

Sorry in advance, but this is going to be a long-assed post.

During last year’s Finals, I started a thread quantifying the perimeter defense of the Spurs’ players against Heat players (mainly their Big Three, Allen and Chalmers). With all the talk about how the Spurs are going to defend OKC and who was going to guard whom, and who was most effective, I decided to make a similar thread for this series. As of now, it will only focus on Durant, Westbrook and Jackson, but if there are other scorers (like Fisher in Game One), I’ll cover them for that game.

I’ll say now that my numbers aren't necessarily going to be the same as those from other sources. I’m defining defensive assignments differently that many folks do, so I’ll assign blame and credit differently as a result. A big difference will be that I will emphasis help defense. Help defenders will get the credit coming over to challenge a shot, but they usually won’t get blame if the shot goes in. If the help man misses a rotation, is in bad position or needlessly fouls, he’ll get blamed. But if he’s just put in a bad position, the original defender will get the mark.

The biggest caveat to all this is that the best defense is to not even allow a shot. In that regard, the numbers may be a little misleading, especially for Leonard, who’s best man-defensive attribute in my opinion is ball-denial. For the most part, the analysis will also ignore possessions that don’t end in shots, fouls or turnovers. All in all, take these numbers for what they are, but don’t forget to look for context. My opinion is no better than anyone else’s.

Now let’s get on with the stats.



Durant

Makes
Misses
Fouls
Turnover
PPP



Leonard
7
4
0
1
1.416667



Green
0
3
0
1
0



Belinelli
0
1
0
0
0



Duncan
1
0
1
0
3



Splitter
0
1
1
1
0.666667



Ginobili
2
0
1
1
2



Baynes
0
0
0
2
0



Total
10
9
3
6
1.076923



The biggest takeaway from all this is that Durant was successful when he actually shot against Leonard. Kawhi continues to struggle in transition, which led to KD making three shots from distance as the trailer on the break. I thought Leonard had a pretty strong defensive game overall against Durant, especially since Kawhi didn’t foul him once. I am interested in seeing where this matchup goes. Durant may not make as many tough shots again, but Leonard may also not be able to avoid fouling again.

Pop was correct when he said the supporting cast did an awesome job on Durant. Green was very good when switched on to KD, and the bigs besides Duncan were tremendous with their help. I’ll talk more about team defense later on, but OKC simply can’t win in this series if Durant can’t score on other players besides Kawhi.



Westbrook
Makes
Misses
Fouls
Turnover
PPP



Leonard
1
1
0
1
0.666667



Green
2
2
1
2
0.857143



Parker
2
2
1
1
1.166667



Duncan
2
0
2
0
2.333333



Splitter
1
2
0
0
0.333333



Diaw
0
1
0
0
0



Ginobili
1
1
0
0
1



Baynes
0
1
0
0
0



Total
9
12
4
4
0.862069



More of the same. Leonard and Green were good, and the bigs who aren't HoFers were great. Not much to really say about Russ.





Jackson

Makes
Misses
Fouls
Turnover
PPP



Green
0
2
0
0
0



Parker
0
1
0
0
0



Belinelli
2
0
0
0
2.5



Mills
0
0
1
1
0



Duncan
1
1
0
0
1



Diaw
1
0
0
0
2



Ginobili
2
1
0
0
1.333333



Total
6
5
0
1
1.08333



Beli’s a bad defender, and Diaw can’t guard Jackson. Everything else is pretty typical.



Fisher

Makes
Misses
Fouls
Turnover
PPP



Parker
0
1
0
0
0



Belinelli
1
0
0
0
3



Mills
3
0
2
0
2.2



Duncan
0
1
0
0
0



Total
4
6
2
1
1.454545



Mills was not good defensively, but he did a decent job contesting a couple of Fisher’s shots. He can’t foul him, though. I don’t think the Spurs need to switch up their defense too much, but Pop needs to tell Patty to stick to Fisher and not help at all.

General Takeaways:

I don’t think I can stress how horrible Duncan’s team defense was last night. It had no redeeming qualities. He can’t hedge on the PnR, but he also can’t sink fast enough to stop Westbrook or Durant from driving. I honestly don’t know how many minutes Tim can be on the floor if the Thunder aren’t playing big. HoFer or not, he’s probably not going to be a huge plus in this series.

The thing I liked most about the Green/Leonard defensive combo is that it completely negated the 1/3 Pnr the Thunder run with Westbrook and Durant. Danny and Kawhi would just switch it, and neither Thunder player could take advantage. OKC had early success running the 1/3 PnR early in the game when Parker was on Westbrook, since Kawhi couldn’t switch. Leonard instead had to hedge, which he did poorly, and the end result was both Russ and KD running free. Pop tried initially to counter this by using Manu to guard Westbrook, and that worked pretty well, too.

Baynes had a beautiful defensive stretch when he can in at the end of the third. He sacrificed his body well, and he moved his feet better that I’ve ever seen him do. It’s actually pretty amazing that the Spurs’ third-string center would be OKC’s best defensive big right now. Splitter was tremendous as always, save for Durant’s first foul when Tiago was late with his help. Diaw was fine when he was allowed to play as a big, but he needs to do a better job defending the perimeter when he plays as a forward.

Green was absolutely electric defensively in Game One. He was able to give help and also completely negate Sef and Fisher when he guarded them. It’s very interesting that Pop is using him as a “free-safety” on defense, allowing him to pretty much guard everyone. When Danny plays like this, he needs to play more. No exceptions.

Three-point Defense:

Some fans seem to be very concerned with the way the Spurs defend the three-point line after giving help. The concern is mostly centered around the way Green (and others, but the fans forget that) jumps out at shooters instead of just running toward them with a hand up. So for those fans, I decided to look at every three-point attempt prior to garbage time and see how they were contested, and what the results were.

Just for clarification, I broke down the contests into two categories: hard close-outs and soft close-outs. I defined hard close-outs as those in which the defender moves past the shooter while running, as opposed to soft close-outs where the defender stays in position. Threes where the defender was already there are discounted from this discussion, obviously.

Key: m=made three; x=miss; t=made two; f=foul; p=pass



Soft





Shooter
Result


Splitter
Collison
x


Diaw
Bulter
t


Diaw
Butler
f


Diaw
Butler
p


Green
Butler
f


Mills
Fisher
m


Beli
Jackson
t


Parker
Butler
f


Parker
Fisher
x





Hard





Shooter
Result


Green
Sef
x


Green
Sef
x


Green
Sef
x


Mills
Fish
m


Green
Butler
x


Parker
Sef
x


Ginobili
Sef
p


Leonard
Durant
m


Baynes
Butler
x


Parker
Butler
x



It’s pretty clear which type of close-out is more effective. The only makes off hard-closes came on a Fisher reset and on Durant calmly draining a three after Leonard gave a half-hearted hard close (meaning he just ran by him without jumping, neither disrupting the shot nor staying in position). The Thunder only made one three off a soft close-out, but they scored on all but three of those possessions. Simply put, just running after a player with a hand up isn’t a huge deterrent to NBA players. You have to make them uncomfortable. Also, soft-closes are just as inclined to be out of control as hard-closes are, as evidenced by the five times the shooters were able to just drive past the closing defender.

It’s also pretty clear that the type of close-out that occurs is not dependent on the defender, but rather on the shooter. Players closed out hard on Sefalosha without fail, but were much more cautious with Butler, who’s more of a threat inside the arc. Which type of closeout the players use is something that Pop puts into his game plan. I hope that clears some things up, and I’ll keep track of these numbers throughout the series.

Any feedback would be appreciated. Criticism is also welcome. These are homemade stats, so I may well have missed somethings/made some errors. Feel free to point them out or ask for clarification.

[Prime Time]

Great read and very interesting stats :tu

Green's defense was great last night. I noticed how he was switching more on Westbrook/Durant throughout the second half, felt it was an underrated part of the game.

[ElNono]

:lol I don't have a problem with hard-closeouts. I have a problem with players jumping out of control during said hard-closeouts. As I said in the other thread, it's not about "hard-closeout vs soft-closeout".

I much prefer the "run past the player" than "jumping over the player"...

I appreciate the work you did here, and I'm hoping you'll update it as the series go on. It's difficult to draw many conclusions with these numbers due to sample size. Thanks :tu

[Chinook]

:lol I don't have a problem with hard-closeouts. I have a problem with players jumping out of control during said hard-closeouts. As I said in the other thread, it's not about "hard-closeout vs soft-closeout".

I much prefer the "run past the player" than "jumping over the player"...

I appreciate the work you did here, and I'm hoping you'll update it as the series go on. It's difficult to draw many conclusions with these numbers due to sample size. Thanks :tu

Thanks. I agree about sample size. It's just much easier to do the stats after each game and combine them than it is to do them all at the end. And it gives us something to talk about during the off days.

Simply running past a shooter is much worse than jumping. The only hard-close that didn't include jumping was Leonard's close on Durant's three. That was actually horrible D, because he neither made Durant change his shot nor did he stay in the play. In all other cases, te defenders did exactly what Green is critcized of doing.

[ElNono]

Simply running past a shooter is much worse than jumping.

I largely disagree with this, but you already know that :lol.

When a player's feet leaves the floor, they have a whole lot less control and opens up a different can of worms, especially against seasoned players for reasons we already went through.

It's absolutely true that Danny is not the only one to do that, tough, but I do notice he's been doing more often than everybody else. I think he's good enough to contest under control, it's just a matter of habit.

Looking forward to the next edition of this report. Great job!

[Aztecfan03]

During last year’s Finals, I started a thread quantifying the perimeter defense of the Spurs’ players against Heat players (mainly their Big Three, Bosh and Chalmers).

Is Ray Allen part of the big 3 instead of Bosh?

[Juan]

I’ll say now that my numbers aren't necessarily going to be the same as those from other sources. I’m defining defensive assignments differently that many folks do

AKA my numbers are skewed to make Danny Green look good and to prove that Leonard is "overrated" by spurs fans.

[Chinook]

Is Ray Allen part of the big 3 instead of Bosh?

As far as perimeter players go.

[Chinook]

AKA my numbers are skewed to make Danny Green look good and to prove that Leonard is "overrated" by spurs fans.

Lol. They were actually generous to Leonard, since Duncan and Splitter picked up negative plays Kawhi would have had otherwise. If anything, my numbers lessen the disparity between Danny and Kawhi from last game. It wasn't really close.

[DesignatedT]

This will be fun to follow. Thanks :tu

[jjktkk]

Nice write up and analysis. :tu

[wildchild]

Good read! Thanks Chinook!


I thought Leonard had a pretty strong defensive game overall against Durant
This is why Leonard's one of best perimeter defenders in the league, because his overall defense. Some players are good at one or two things on D, Leonard is so good at of most things.


I am interested in seeing where this matchup goes. Durant may not made as many tough shots again, but Leonard may also not be able to avoid fouling again

-Durant finished shooting 6/15 on contested and 4/4 on his uncontested shots
-he had only one FGA that was less than 10 ft from rim
-he took 5 attempts less, it means he wasn't too comfortable
-he had six turnovers
-he couldn't get his 12 free throws pg.

Kawhi -98.1- and Danny -97.8- are near the top in defensive rating in playoffs but we all know Pop...and nobody should be surprised to see Manu or Beli playing more minutes next games if Green's 3's aren't falling or Leonard is in foul trouble.

Green played 27' in Game 1, Leonard 39' so, Pop can finally play these two guys 40' in a playoffs game?

[Em-City]

thanks for the analysis - i'm a big fan of hard close-outs if it means you aren't fouling and you force an out-of-rhythm shot, it's a win.

Like OP said, it depends on the shooter, but should also depend on the shot clock situation.

We have the hard closeout vs soft closeout argument for my rec. league team every week.

[pgardn]

Very interesting and a lot of work.

:clap

[DesignatedT]

Some fans just don't understand it seems. The spurs are in this position because they play guys 1 through 9. I understand certain players getting an increase in minutes in different series etc. for different purposes but spur fan complain that Leonard isn't playing 40 and then when he is they complain green isn't playing 40. It's like they want the spurs to only play 5 guys vs 5 guys against these playoff teams the entire game. We would lose. The spurs main strength is their bench and the fact that every player brings something different. Opponents aren't allowed to get comfortable with what the spurs are doing because they play 9 guys who all play a different style. Shortening the rotation to 5 or 6 guys doesn't work for the spurs. Stop asking for it. Certain guys need to play more depending on matchups but the spurs won't go away from the bench and they shouldn't.

[superjames1992]

Interesting analysis, though I'm not sure we can really take away much from it given the small sample size and because, as you said, the best defense is not allowing the offensive player to get off a shot.

[Spurs da champs]

Leonard was getting killed by screens, very similar to George Hill against Steve Nash in 2010. Tho Leonard has played much better defense on Durant than what he showed last night.

[Splits]

I largely disagree with this, but you already know that :lol.

When a player's feet leaves the floor, they have a whole lot less control and opens up a different can of worms, especially against seasoned players for reasons we already went through.

It's absolutely true that Danny is not the only one to do that, tough, but I do notice he's been doing more often than everybody else. I think he's good enough to contest under control, it's just a matter of habit.

Looking forward to the next edition of this report. Great job!

I really don't understand this take, EN. Obviously, Pop coaches Danny and others to "run" players off the 3pt line. If he didn't want the flybye move, then the first time it happens in a game he would lose his shit and pull Green or said player. It happened 3 times in the first Green stint last night, and I believe all 3 times resulted in a missed shot.

This is not the player's decision, they are coached this way. So unless you're disagreeing with Pop, I don't get your take. It's not on the player.

[Splits]

Great writeup, btw Chinook. Appreciate the analysis and numbers, fine read.

[DPG21920]

Thanks, Chi

[apalisoc_9]

Thanks Chinook..

I don't understand why Posters here continue to blast me for last night..I said Timmy was Phenomenal offensively but he was so bad defensively that he doesn't deserve an A..

SMH...

[ABC]

:tu

[timtonymanu]

Chinook continues to solidify himself as a top poster up here.

Great job. :tu

[ElNono]

I really don't understand this take, EN. Obviously, Pop coaches Danny and others to "run" players off the 3pt line. If he didn't want the flybye move, then the first time it happens in a game he would lose his shit and pull Green or said player. It happened 3 times in the first Green stint last night, and I believe all 3 times resulted in a missed shot.

This is not the player's decision, they are coached this way. So unless you're disagreeing with Pop, I don't get your take. It's not on the player.

Running players off the 3pt line don't have to include jumping at them. The vast majority of NBA players (including most of the Spurs in most of the hard closeouts) actually do not do that. I don't know a single coach that thinks that leaving your feet when you're running full speed at a shooter is a good idea. That's not to say that some players do actually do it *occasionally*. I know Manu, Kawhi, Marco have done it. It's simply a risky move. Once you're in the air, you no longer have control of where you're going to land, and some players will make you pay for it (which is where this argument started from). I'm speaking generally. Not every player will make you pay, and not every play that involves a player jumping at a shooter is bad defense.

Chinook argument is that jumping at them is actually better than putting a hand up on them, and while I respect his opinion, I don't think that's accurate either. There's actually reasons why coaches teach to defend the jump shot the way players do. For example, there's a reason why you should use only one hand up as opposed to both hands up (defending with both hands up increases the possibility of contact with the shooter's elbows, which is a foul most of the time).

I don't necessarily have a problem if Danny thinks he's athletic enough to get up there and actually block a release. He might've actually been successful at that at some point. I just don't think it's a wise idea to do it as often as he does it. Just my opinion though.

[ElNono]

BTW, I also make my Italian heritage proud, and I'm a hardheaded mofo, so don't even try :lol

[Splits]

Running players off the 3pt line don't have to include jumping at them. The vast majority of NBA players (including most of the Spurs in most of the hard closeouts) actually do not do that. I don't know a single coach that thinks that leaving your feet when you're running full speed at a shooter is a good idea. That's not to say that some players do actually do it *occasionally*. I know Manu, Kawhi, Marco have done it. It's simply a risky move. Once you're in the air, you no longer have control of where you're going to land, and some players will make you pay for it (which is where this argument started from). I'm speaking generally. Not every player will make you pay, and not every play that involves a player jumping at a shooter is bad defense.

Chinook argument is that jumping at them is actually better than putting a hand up on them, and while I respect his opinion, I don't think that's accurate either. There's actually reasons why coaches teach to defend the jump shot the way players do. For example, there's a reason why you should use only one hand up as opposed to both hands up (defending with both hands up increases the possibility of contact with the shooter's elbows, which is a foul most of the time).

I don't necessarily have a problem if Danny thinks he's athletic enough to get up there and actually block a release. He might've actually been successful at that at some point. I just don't think it's a wise idea to do it as often as he does it. Just my opinion though.

I'm not debating the effectiveness of the flybye. I could go either way, I see your point but I lean towards Chi's. What I am debating is whether this is Danny's "choice" or if he's instructed to close out this way. This is not the type of thing coaches, especially Pop, ignore. They teach players to do it one way or the other, and obviously with the number of flybyes Green has compiled this season it is something he's instructed to do. I'm sure it is something they discuss, scrimmage, watch tape on, and have a system in place for when you should flybye on a closeout and when you should not.

That's especially true when he has to sag off his corner-3 guy to help on Durant: http://tinypic.com/r/2m7bz3o/8

[ElNono]

I'm not debating the effectiveness of the flybye. I could go either way, I see your point but I lean towards Chi's. What I am debating is whether this is Danny's "choice" or if he's instructed to close out this way. This is not the type of thing coaches, especially Pop, ignore. They teach players to do it one way or the other, and obviously with the number of flybyes Green has compiled this season it is something he's instructed to do. I'm sure it is something they discuss, scrimmage, watch tape on, and have a system in place for when you should flybye on a closeout and when you should not.

That's especially true when he has to sag off his corner-3 guy to help on Durant: http://tinypic.com/r/2m7bz3o/8

I don't think Pop instructs him to do that at all. I think in the case of Danny, because how often he does it, it's entirely habit. Thanks for the video, I actually think it's less of a problem against not-so-savvy players like Sefolosha or Butler, but players like Fisher will simply pumpfake then jump at him and draw the foul. It's an unnecessary bailout, and again, I don't think a coach wants that at all. A hard-close? Sure. Jumping at the shooter? I don't think so. Just my 2c.

[Splits]

I don't think Pop instructs him to do that at all. I think in the case of Danny, because how often he does it, it's entirely habit. Thanks for the video, I actually think it's less of a problem against not-so-savvy players like Sefolosha or Butler, but players like Fisher will simply pumpfake then jump at him and draw the foul. It's an unnecessary bailout, and again, I don't think a coach wants that at all. A hard-close? Sure. Jumping at the shooter? I don't think so. Just my 2c.

Yeah, don't agree on a couple of points. As I said, this isn't something a coach like Pop ignores. If players, Danny in particular, were coached to not do this and they continued to do it on the reg, Pop would lose his lid and bench him immediately while cussing him out on the way to the pine. It's not nuance, it is an integral part of the design of the defense. Secondly, and you can see it in the clip I posted, the defender actually has much more control in the flybye move to avoid a foul call than if they go straight up or lean in with 1 hand, and allow the shooter to initiate contact with their arms or kick out a leg. Very rarely does the flybye defender get called for a foul. Just watch the CP3 foul on Westbrook that cost them game 5. CP3 contests the shot in the "honest" way by going straight up, but there's contact on the wrist and Chimpy gets 3 foodstamps. If you watch Green on that Sef flybye, he has control over his arms and body in the air and at the last moment pulls back to avoid the contact. There's no chance he's going to get called for a foul. And moreover he still recovers to contest the 2 (which is a shot Pop will live with if Sef drains it).

I think it is all by design, a feature not a bug, especially with Danny given the defensive assignments he is given.

[Chinook]

I don't think Pop instructs him to do that at all. I think in the case of Danny, because how often he does it, it's entirely habit. Thanks for the video, I actually think it's less of a problem against not-so-savvy players like Sefolosha or Butler, but players like Fisher will simply pumpfake then jump at him and draw the foul. It's an unnecessary bailout, and again, I don't think a coach wants that at all. A hard-close? Sure. Jumping at the shooter? I don't think so. Just my 2c.

I think you're underestimating the level of skill Green has when doing his "fly-by". He doesn't just barrel past them. He flies by them diagonally and away from them. I don't think it's very possible at all for a shooter to pump-fake and jump into him, because the shooter would have to essentially "catch" Green as Danny flies by. Not only is that not easy to do, but it's also something the league is trying to deter by making such moves offensive fouls. Even savvy Fisher had to wait until Mills passed by him before he could move.

The reason why (I think that) jumping on hard-closes is more effective is because it creates a bigger obstruction for the shooter. When you just run by with your hand up, you're not doing anything different from a soft-close besides getting out of the play. The shooter doesn't half to worry about you blocking the shot, and they can both reset and drive without fear of their defender. When a player jumps during their hard-close, they're essentially eliminating any chance that the shooter can get off a shot, since the defender is blocking all possible archs outside of rainbow shots. This forces the shooter to wait until the defender passes, which both messes up the rhythm of the shooter and allows for the rotating man to get to the shooter. In Green's case, he's not actually trying to block the shot; he's just trying to be enough of a threat to block the shot that the shooter doesn't get off a look.

As far as being out of control goes. I cited the five time last game that soft-closes led to loss of containment. This happened because the closing man was out of control and allowed the shooter to drive past them. Soft-closing requires a defender to stop on a spot, whereas hard-closes allow a player to run through or at least jump up to release some momentum. It's a lot easier (in my opinion) to avoid fouling jumping past (and away from) a player than it is trying to stop on a dime right in front of a player with a hand up.

[spurraider21]

BTW, I also make my Italian heritage proud, and I'm a hardheaded mofo, so don't even try :lol
Philotalian, imo

[ElNono]

Yeah, don't agree on a couple of points. As I said, this isn't something a coach like Pop ignores. If players, Danny in particular, were coached to not do this and they continued to do it on the reg, Pop would lose his lid and bench him immediately while cussing him out on the way to the pine. It's not nuance, it is an integral part of the design of the defense. Secondly, and you can see it in the clip I posted, the defender actually has much more control in the flybye move to avoid a foul call than if they go straight up or lean in with 1 hand, and allow the shooter to initiate contact with their arms or kick out a leg. Very rarely does the flybye defender get called for a foul. Just watch the CP3 foul on Westbrook that cost them game 5. CP3 contests the shot in the "honest" way by going straight up, but there's contact on the wrist and Chimpy gets 3 foodstamps. If you watch Green on that Sef flybye, he has control over his arms and body in the air and at the last moment pulls back to avoid the contact. There's no chance he's going to get called for a foul. And moreover he still recovers to contest the 2 (which is a shot Pop will live with if Sef drains it).

I think it is all by design, a feature not a bug, especially with Danny given the defensive assignments he is given.

I think there's no actual empirical evidence of anything being "better" than anything else, it's just a matter of common sense and playing the odds. Jumping into a defender that bought a pumpfake is actually pretty common and 'savvy' move by a lot of vets out there, so that's why jumping towards the shooter is generally a no-no (pardon the pun). I also think Pop has been much more "loose" since Gino came around as far as balancing what players give him overall vs specific "mistakes". Not every player is a fundamentally sound player, but they don't have to be if what they bring to the table works and outdoes any detriment. I think that's been largely the case with a lot of out roster. Tiago sometimes can drive you up a wall finishing at the basket, and I'm sure Pop doesn't tell him to be a pansy around the rim, but I don't expect Pop to pull him out, especially if he's having a solid defensive game.

From the get go, I said I love Danny and love 90% of what he does out there, this whole thing is really nitpicking at areas where I think he can get better at (which also includes developing better handles).

[Chinook]

Yeah, don't agree on a couple of points. As I said, this isn't something a coach like Pop ignores. If players, Danny in particular, were coached to not do this and they continued to do it on the reg, Pop would lose his lid and bench him immediately while cussing him out on the way to the pine. It's not nuance, it is an integral part of the design of the defense. Secondly, and you can see it in the clip I posted, the defender actually has much more control in the flybye move to avoid a foul call than if they go straight up or lean in with 1 hand, and allow the shooter to initiate contact with their arms or kick out a leg. Very rarely does the flybye defender get called for a foul. Just watch the CP3 foul on Westbrook that cost them game 5. CP3 contests the shot in the "honest" way by going straight up, but there's contact on the wrist and Chimpy gets 3 foodstamps. If you watch Green on that Sef flybye, he has control over his arms and body in the air and at the last moment pulls back to avoid the contact. There's no chance he's going to get called for a foul. And moreover he still recovers to contest the 2 (which is a shot Pop will live with if Sef drains it).

I think it is all by design, a feature not a bug, especially with Danny given the defensive assignments he is given.

It's relatively easy to get contact on fly-bys if the defender runs either straight past the shooter or especially perpendicular to him. Those lead to the defender being too close and clipping an arm or a leg. The major benefit of Green jumping is that he doesn't actually have to be all that close to the shooter to obstruct his shot, since he's blocking more airspace. So he's not in any danger of touching his man at any point. That supports mine and your point that Green's jumps are very much controlled. Danny's a very savvy defender, not a monkey-baller. He uses his athleticism very well to augment his defense while not being a slave to it as players like Corey Brewer are.

[ElNono]

I think you're underestimating the level of skill Green has when doing his "fly-by". He doesn't just barrel past them. He flies by them diagonally and away from them. I don't think it's very possible at all for a shooter to pump-fake and jump into him, because the shooter would have to essentially "catch" Green as Danny flies by. Not only is that not easy to do, but it's also something the league is trying to deter by making such moves offensive fouls. Even savvy Fisher had to wait until Mills passed by him before he could move.

The reason why (I think that) jumping on hard-closes is more effective is because it creates a bigger obstruction for the shooter. When you just run by with your hand up, you're not doing anything different from a soft-close besides getting out of the play. The shooter doesn't half to worry about you blocking the shot, and they can both reset and drive without fear of their defender. When a player jumps during their hard-close, they're essentially eliminating any chance that the shooter can get off a shot, since the defender is blocking all possible archs outside of rainbow shots. This forces the shooter to wait until the defender passes, which both messes up the rhythm of the shooter and allows for the rotating man to get to the shooter. In Green's case, he's not actually trying to block the shot; he's just trying to be enough of a threat to block the shot that the shooter doesn't get off a look.

As far as being out of control goes. I cited the five time last game that soft-closes led to loss of containment. This happened because the closing man was out of control and allowed the shooter to drive past them. Soft-closing requires a defender to stop on a spot, whereas hard-closes allow a player to run through or at least jump up to release some momentum. It's a lot easier (in my opinion) to avoid fouling jumping past (and away from) a player than it is trying to stop on a dime right in front of a player with a hand up.

Look at that video. It doesn't matter if he's not going straight at them. It takes a simple jump to the left from Sefo to draw the foul on a guy that's in mid-air. That will be called a foul 99 times out of 100. If he's jumping behind the 3 point line, it's 3 free throws, and a foul for Danny. I will simply never agree that's the "better" play. You want to get to Sefo, you want to invade his personal space, and put a hand up. If you're coming in too hot, run past him, then recover.

[ElNono]

Philotalian, imo

:lol this is one of those things that are non-negotiable for me... Danny could be a professional contortionist, but once you're in the air, you're in the air, and the benefit of the doubt goes to the shooter, IMO.

[ElNono]

Anyways, I've derailed this thread enough (although the OP did mention some of this), and that wasn't my intention. I'm sure we'll have plenty of opportunities to discuss this again with Chinook in the future.

[Splits]

The "is the flybye closeout by design" is the type of question that some up-and-coming intrepid reporter (I'm looking at you @JMcDonald_SAEN (https://twitter.com/JMcDonald_SAEN)!) should ask Pop. It's the type of question he would probably be glad to answer since it has relevance, tbh.

[Chinook]

Look at that video. It doesn't matter if he's not going straight at them. It takes a simple jump to the left from Sefo to draw the foul on a guy that's in mid-air. That will be called a foul 99 times out of 100. If he's jumping behind the 3 point line, it's 3 free throws, and a foul for Danny. I will simply never agree that's the "better" play. You want to get to Sefo, you want to invade his personal space, and put a hand up. If you're coming in too hot, run past him, then recover.

You don't want to let Sef shoot. You want him to drive. He won't drive if you "invade his personal space." If you don't threaten to block the shot, and also don't allow a driving lane, then you're asking him to shoot the three anyway, which is what happens on soft-closes against elite shooters.

As far as the video goes. I think you're stretching it. Going from having your feet set to shoot to exploding to the side to catch up to a player who's moving away from you is not "simple" at all. In fact, it's nearly impossible, which is why that almost never happens. For the most part players who jump into leaping players after pump-faking do so because the leaping player is moving toward the shooter. Not only does it make it much more feasible for a shooter to jump into the defender, it also eliminates the offensive foul because the defender is invading the shooters' space. A jump like in the video is the opposite. Shooters trying to draw that type of contact is the very thing the NBA has instructed their officials to not reward (and even to punish) this season.

[ElNono]

You don't want to let Sef shoot. You want him to drive. He won't drive if you "invade his personal space." If you don't threaten to block the shot, and also don't allow a driving lane, then you're asking him to shoot the three anyway, which is what happens on soft-closes against elite shooters.

As far as the video goes. I think you're stretching it. Going from having your feet set to shoot to exploding to the side to catch up to a player who's moving away from you is not "simple" at all. In fact, it's nearly impossible, which is why that almost never happens. For the most part players who jump into leaping players after pump-faking do so because the leaping player is moving toward the shooter. Not only does it make it much more feasible for a shooter to jump into the defender, it also eliminates the offensive foul because the defender is invading the shooters' space. A jump like in the video is the opposite. Shooters trying to draw that type of contact is the very thing the NBA has instructed their officials to not reward (and even to punish) this season.

Well, we don't agree. I think if Sefo was savvy enough, he would have near zero problem drawing a foul in that situation. Furthermore, the fact that nowadays there's any discussion about the "verticality rule" (which means the only way it's not a foul on any contact is if you're jumping up and only up), pretty much ensures that any kind of contact, drawn or otherwise on a flyby is pretty much an automatic foul.

You're my guy Chinook and I really appreciate reading your stuff, I agree with a lot of it, but this is one area where we're clearly not going to agree. It's all good, and I'm sure we'll touch on it again at some point in the future. Feel free to have the last word on this.

[ElNono]

The "is the flybye closeout by design" is the type of question that some up-and-coming intrepid reporter (I'm looking at you @JMcDonald_SAEN (https://twitter.com/JMcDonald_SAEN)!) should ask Pop. It's the type of question he would probably be glad to answer since it has relevance, tbh.

I don't think Pop is keen to talk about that stuff... you could lift some quotes in general about what he wants on defense (like putting a hand up), but he doesn't normally go into the gory details.

[Splits]

Here's another Q1 Green flybye after he digs down on Westbrook to disrupt his penetration, forcing another Sef 2pt miss. Again, no chance of Thabo drawing a foul as Danny is under control with his arms and body:

http://tinypic.com/r/104pb48/8

[will_spurs]

Some fans seem to be very concerned with the way the Spurs defend the three-point line after giving help. The concern is mostly centered around the way Green (and others, but the fans forget that) jumps out at shooters instead of just running toward them with a hand up. So for those fans, I decided to look at every three-point attempt prior to garbage time and see how they were contested, and what the results were.

I don't think we were arguing that a hard close-out is worse than a soft close-out, but rather than a hard close-out implies less body control and more opportunities for a crafty player to get a foul. It happens all the time on this kind of plays. The fact that it didn't happen last night is no indication that it won't happen at crucial points in the future, especially if the refs have decided they'd be whistle-happy.

This being said, thanks for the great, detailed job. Very enlightening.

[Chinook]

I don't think we were arguing that a hard close-out is worse than a soft close-out, but rather than a hard close-out implies less body control and more opportunities for a crafty player to get a foul. It happens all the time on this kind of plays. The fact that it didn't happen last night is no indication that it won't happen at crucial points in the future, especially if the refs have decided they'd be whistle-happy.

This being said, thanks for the great, detailed job. Very enlightening.

Thanks.

I actually didn't say that part to counter Nono's point. It was more to emphasize that Green isn't foolishly biting on fakes like some posters insist he is, but rather he jumps because it's a strategy (a viable one that he executes flawlessly).

[Old School 44]

Whether a player leaves his feet or not to contest a shot is situational. The only thing I think they really coach is not to leave your feet if offensive player still has his dribble. There's also the consideration for where you are in the shot clock. Of course, when you leave your feet you don't want to barrel straight on into anyone. Although it doesn't happen all the time, the officials are supposed to call leg kickouts, and offensive player initiated contact.

I will say this about OKC, I can see falling down (even if they're just selling it) by contact on drives to the basket, but they sure do fall down a lot after jump shots.

[Spur|n|Austin]

:tu :toast Chin

[elbamba]

[B]tl;dr: [TR]
[I don’t think I can stress how horrible Duncan’s team defense was last night. It had no redeeming qualities. He can’t hedge on the PnR, but he also can’t sink fast enough to stop Westbrook or Durant from driving. I honestly don’t know how many minutes Tim can be on the floor if the Thunder aren’t playing big. HoFer or not, he’s probably not going to be a huge plus in this series.


While I agree that his defense will hurt the Spurs in this series, the fact that OKC cannot stop him on offense for stretches outweighs any negativity on the defensive end for me. Tim is still our best rebounder. You can tell the team is making an effort to rebound as a team to take the pressure off of Tim, but when it comes down to it, he is still our best rebounder.

[look_at_g_shred]

Definitely in favor of hard close-outs and biting on the pump fake. 2 is better than 3, and the likelyhood of the shooter getting back into position for the three is good, but the percentage of the shot decreases. Hard closeouts all series please?

[DesignatedT]

Leonard defending Durant

As expected Kawhi Leonard took a major role in defending Kevin Durant in the opening game of the series. Leonard spent 8:26 on Durant and limited him to 3-of-7 shooting on 27 touches for seven of his points.

Parker defending Westbrook

If Game 1 is any indication, Tony Parker will struggle to stay in front of Russell Westbrook all series long. Westbrook drove the ball seven times in 3:23 of matchup time against Parker.


Overall Drives Allowed
Manu Ginobili 8
Tony Parker 8
Kevin Durant 6
Danny Green 5
Reggie Jackson 5
Boris Diaw 3
Kawhi Leonard 3
Leonard's offense vs. Durant

Kawhi Leonard also highlighted his offensive game, shooting 5-for-11 in almost seven minutes of action being defended by Durant.

Duncan defending Thunder bigs

When Tim Duncan defended Oklahoma City's interior players, offense was almost non-existent. Between Kendrick Perkins, Steven Adams and Nick Collison they combined for just seven touches and 0-for-1 shooting from the floor in 7:13 of matchup time.

Collison's defense

While Nick Collison did not contribute much offensively he held opponents to 4-of-12 shooting in the game. He stepped up several times to prevent to impact Kawhi Leonard shots, limiting him to 1-of-5 shooting.

http://stats.nba.com/featured/sportvu_matchup_data_west_fin_2014_05_20.html?ls=i ref:nbahpt13a

[Chinook]

That highlights what I mean about different folks having different numbers. Leonard gave Durant three three-pointers alone. This site probably assigns those baskets to "transition", which is pretty common. But those openings were Kawhi's fault, since he had plenty of time to pick up KD and lost him.

[jag]

Overall good read. Thanks for the post

I agree with Nono. Mostly because he's a mod

[ElNono]

I didn't like the defense overall in the 1st game. Poor transition D for some stretches, something you can't do against a team like OKC. I thought we were out-hustled for some other stretches too, especially the 3rd quarter.

I think the Spurs can play much better D for longer, and I hope after reviewing the tape they'll do that tonight. I think when the offense is clicking so well, the team tends to relax a bit on the defensive end.

[Chinook]

Pop can improve the defense by limiting the amount of time multiple poor defenders are on the floor together. I think the Spurs can survive defensively if either Duncan is the big defender on the PnR or Manu/Beli/Mills is the perimeter defender. But having both of those things for long stretches creates a major weakness even Brooks is smart enough to see. Splitter needs to play more with the second unit, meaning Duncan shouldn't play as much with it. I think Pop should consider reversing Tim's and Tiago's sub patterns. I mean, it's one thing if Duncan is destroying OKC offensively. But if he's not, Splitter is a better option to hide the bench's defensive deficiencies.

[ElNono]

I don't see rotations changing much after a win. That is generally Pop's modus operandi. I do think there are areas where he'll ask for more attention to detail and extra effort.
About Tim with the 2nd unit, I think Diaw getting poked in the eye and Timmy having a great 1st quarter were contributors to that. In general, I think Diaw or even Tiago will get more of those minutes.

[spurraider21]

excelling write-up dude. would love to compare this with Barkley's notes tbh

[Chinook]

All right, guys, let’s knock out the numbers for Game Two:



Durant

































Game 2

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

PPP


Series

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

PPP




Leonard

3

4

1

0

0.857143


Leonard

10

8

1

1

1.15




Green

2

1

1

0

1.333333


Green

2

4

1

1

0.571429




Parker

0

1

0

1

0


Belinelli

0

1

0

0

0




Duncan

0

0

1

0

2


Duncan

1

0

2

0

2.5




Splitter

1

1

0

0

1


Splitter

1

2

1

1

0.8




Diaw

0

0

1

0

0


Ginobili

2

3

1

2

0.857143




Ginobili

0

3

0

1

1


Baynes

0

0

0

2

0





Total

6

10

2

2

0.75


Parker

0

1

0

1

0











Diaw

0

0

1

0

0



























Total

16

19

7

8

0.914894




I liked Leonard’s defense on Durant even better than his PPP allowed suggests. He needs to stop wasting fouls on other players, though. I do think it’s interesting that KD seems to be most unfazed about playing Kawhi. Manu’s numbers are helped by him guarding two half-court Durant heaves to end quarters.



Westbrook



7













Game 2

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

PPP


Series

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

PPP




Leonard

0

0

1

0

0


Leonard

1

1

1

1

0.666667




Green

3

7

0

0

0.7


Green

5

9

1

2

0.764706




Parker

0

5

0

0

0


Parker

2

7

1

1

0.636364




Belinelli

0

1

0

0

0


Duncan

2

1

2

0

1.75




Mills

0

2

0

0

0


Splitter

1

2

0

1

0.25




Duncan

0

1

0

0

0


Diaw

1

2

0

0

0.666667




Splitter

0

0

0

1

0


Ginobili

4

1

1

2

1.142857




Diaw

1

1

0

0

1


Baynes

0

1

0

0

0




Ginobili

3

0

1(0)

2

1.2


Mills

0

2

0

0

0











Belinelli

0

1

0

0

0




Total

7

17

0

3

0.555556


















Total

16

27

6

7

0.714286




Russ was awful no matter who was on him (except Manu), but I don’t want to read that Parker can’t defend him anymore. Tony was awesome keeping Westbrook away from the basket. If the Spurs can force Westbrook to shoot jumpers, OKC is completely at the mercy of Russ’ streakiness. Oh, and Reggie Miller had a horrible take about allowing Westbrook to drive to contest jumpers, but that’s not surprising. That man’s inability to be correct is part of the fundamental fabric of the Universe.



Jackson

















Game 2

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

PPP


Series

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

PPP




Green

1

1

0

2

0.5


Green

1

3

0

2

0.333333




Parker

1

0

0

0

2


Parker

1

1

0

0

1




Belinelli

1

0

0

0

2


Belinelli

3

0

0

0

2.333333




Splitter

0

2

0

0

0


Mills

0

0

1

1

0




Ginobili

1

0

0

0

2


Duncan

1

1

0

0

1





Total

4

3

0

2

0.888889


Diaw

1

0

0

0

2











Ginobili

3

1

0

0

1.5











Splitter

0

2

0

0

0



























Total

10

8

1

3

1



Jackson had a strong game when he could avoid Splitter. He needs to play more if the Thunder want to have any chance to winning. I still don’t see that being enough, because Jackson hasn’t been able to figure out Green all year, and Danny hasn’t been needed on contain Westbrook. Foul trouble could change things, though.



Butler


Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnovers

PPP




Leonard

0

0

0

1

0




Green

0

2

0

1

0




Parker

1

0

0

0

2




Diaw

3

2

0

1

1.166667




Total

4

4

0

3

0.818182




I decided to cover Butler this game, since Fisher was ineffective. The only thing to take away is that Diaw is having a hard time trying to check Butler. Not enough that the Spurs should really be concerned. Not yet, but Boris is going to have to step it up. Caron shouldn’t be a hard assignment.


Takeaways:

-Duncan had a better game last night. He didn’t silence the criticism, like some posters seem to think, but he was no longer a minus on that end. His hedges were still half-hearted, but he didn’t sink nearly as far. His best PnR defense came at the 8:50 mark of the second quarter, where he hedge so hard in almost doubled, driving Westbrook all the way to the far wing. It ended up being a Butler (I think) score, but I loved Tim’s effort there. The reality is that Tim is going to have to make that commitment more often. OKC for some reason decided to iso more this game, which meant that Duncan was near the basket when the Thunder attacked. Tim knew what to do then, and guarded the rim very well.

-I can’t stress enough how awesome Splitter’s team defense is. It’s been awesome all post-season, but without him having to worry about an elite offensive big to check, he’s taken it to a new level. At the 9:30 mark of the second-quarter, Tiago and Green absolutely hounded Jackson, chasing him around the perimeter in sort of a moving double. It was amazing to watch. Splitter also protected the rim extremely well. For any Spurs fans who underrate the loss of Ibaka, losing Splitter would nearly as devastating.

-When so many Thunder players shoot so badly, it’s hard to appropriately give credit to individual defensive players. Green was still awesome in the safety role. Ginobili did a fine job defending Durant in Kawhi’s stead. I just want to give a shout out to Mills and Beli (and especially Parker, but I already talked about them). They both brought much better efforts on D last night, at least Beli did outside garbage time. That gave OKC’s stars no refuge. As I said after Game One, if Durant and Westbrook can’t score on the others, they have absolutely no chance of winning this series, hell, even a game.

-I charted the three-point shooting as I did for Game One. I don’t think I am going to post the numbers, though, since the post is getting long already. The Spurs pretty much closed out hard on every three with three exceptions (two soft and one no-close). OKC only made one of those hard-closes, a Westbrook three after Green helped Leonard and Duncan after botch PnR defense at the start of the game.
Instead, I’ll use its space to cover what I consider to be the most interesting aspect of Game Two.


Durant on Defense



Durant

Post

Screens

Drives

Pull-ups

Break

Threes



Amount

2

4

3

1

2

5



PPP

1

1.5

1.33

0

1

3




There’s no real way to sugarcoat this: Durant had an abysmal defensive game. As much as we rag on Beli for not being able to stop anyone, I’m not sure he could ever do this poor of a job. The Spurs attacked Durant in every way possible, and despite the headlines KD made about him stepping up on that end, he completely folded. What’s most sad is that Durant wasn’t even put in bad match-ups very often. The only big Durant guarded was Diaw, and Boris missed two free throws in two post-up attempts.

Durant was absolutely powerless to stop Parker’s penetration, not even being able to use his length to obstruct. I consider that sort of inexcusable, but I understand people wanting to give KD a break for that. The thing is, calling Parker and Diaw understandable mismatches only explains 5/16 possession, and 7/29 points Durant gave up. The rest came from players at his own position, Leonard and Ginobili and especially Green. It was kind of disturbing to see any player get picked on so much, actually. I know it was the team’s plan to make Durant work at both ends, but I doubt they’d ever imagine that KD would give up twice as many points as he scored.


All in all, it was a game both teams are best to put behind them. While the Spurs should definitely keep using last night’s gameplan, they have to expect Durant and Westbrook to shoot better. Also, the Spurs got lucky with whistles during the last 36 minutes. I expect to see more quarters like last night’s first as the series shifts to OKC. The others’ defense on OKC’s Big Two is very encouraging. It’s very possible that the team is going to have to depend on that continuing, as Kawhi and Danny may well be in extended foul trouble in subsequent games.

[ElNono]

Solid writeup. Thanks :tu

[DPG21920]

Thanks :tu. What is completely shocking to me is the Pop had to go with what had to be the Spurs worst possible line up (not in total make believe land, but in reality) when Kawhi and Danny were hit with 2 early fouls each. Im stunned that the defense managed to hold on as well as they did during that long stretch.

[Mugen]

Thanks Chin.

KD's being asked to do a lot but his lapses on Green were Harden-esque. As anticipated, the big lineup for OKC just doesn't work. It clogs the paint and allows Tim/Tiago an easier avenue to cut off drives and help at the rim.

If Leonard picks up an early foul, then I'd want to see Pop switch Danny onto Durant in the 1st and have Leonard on their 3rd wing. Just from the eye test alone, I thought Green/Manu have done a solid job when matched with KD and I guess the numbers reflect that for the most part.

[Chinook]

Thanks :tu. What is completely shocking to me is the Pop had to go with what had to be the Spurs worst possible line up (not in total make believe land, but in reality) when Kawhi and Danny were hit with 2 early fouls each. Im stunned that the defense managed to hold on as well as they did during that long stretch.

That was actually a very interesting time. When I first watched the game, I thought Green had picked up his second foul. In reality, Duncan got called for hitting Durant, which is why he drew the tech in the first place. So Danny was never in foul trouble. I don't know if Pop knew this, however, and just decided that it was time for Manu to come in or if he was also confused. Either way, you're right. After the Spurs survived that stretch, I wasn't worried about the outcome of that game.

[DPG21920]

Boris is struggling with Caron which is surprising seeing that he did a pretty admirable job on Lebron.

[will_spurs]

Tony is an underrated defender. He's made a lot of progress in the last few years.

[spurraider21]

Thanks chinook. THis is the stuff that makes spurstalk incredible at times. Interesting to see how many adjustments okc can realistically make in the given timespan to get their studs better looks since the isoball really isn't working. Also I might just be speaking for myself but I don't think a longer post is a worse post as long as the content is good. Don't feel bad to post the three point close out figures

[wildchild]

I liked Leonard’s defense on Durant even better than his PPP allowed suggests

These numbers suggest he was the best defender in Game 2. So, "Look at the charts. Green was pretty good but not the best defender for the Spurs" like after Game 1 with Leonard? Danny's best game and the stats say he maybe wasn't the best.

The other guy was in foul trouble? played less? Well...that's the problem with the stats, tell one side of the story.
Don't get me wrong I loved Danny's Game 2, I'm just saying these stats -like others- are not entirely reliable.



Off topic. I don't know if you're being sarcastic when you say the media loves Leonard (too much), but -if it's true- I can't see what is wrong with that.
The media certainly doesn't have a love affair with Spurs players or this kid. McMullen like others can't spell his name, they talk about him only/most in playoffs, they're overlooking Spurs players during the regular season all seasons, even with the best all time PF and the #1 NBA team record.
The kid isn't on TMZ for he impregnated a hoe, for send to another man pics of his dick, or fuck his teammates girl like the Pacers SF star.
So, a young Spurs player can get some attention media for play well, or for be a freak/half robot/no-emotion/crazy hands guy, or for whatever good and decent reason? Please, just let them...

[Chinook]

These numbers suggest he was the best defender in Game 2. So, "Look at the charts. Green was pretty good but not the best defender for the Spurs" like after Game 1 with Leonard? Danny's best game and the stats say he maybe wasn't the best.

The other guy was in foul trouble? played less? Well...that's the problem with the stats, tell one side of the story.
Don't get me wrong I loved Danny's Game 2, I'm just saying these stats -like others- are not entirely reliable.



Off topic. I don't know if you're being sarcastic when you say the media loves Leonard (too much), but -if it's true- I can't see what is wrong with that.
The media certainly doesn't have a love affair with Spurs players or this kid. McMullen like others can't spell his name, they talk about him only/most in playoffs, they're overlooking Spurs players during regular season all seasons, even with the best all time PF and the #1 NBA team record.
The kid isn't on TMZ for he impregnated a hoe, for send to another man pics of his dick, or fuck his teammates girl like the Pacers SF star.
So, a young Spurs player can get some attention media for play well, or for be a freak/half robot/no-emotion/crazy hands guy, or for whatever good and decent reason? Please, just let them...

You shouldn't criticize my use of stats if you misunderstand them. Kawhi didn't have the lowest PPP of anyone on the team. He didn't even have the lowest PPP on Durant. So if you're going to disregard sample size, do it right.

I claimed Green was the best defender in Game One because of the sheer number of players he guarded and for how well he did despite being the primary defender on so many attacks. Leonard was better in Game One than my numbers suggested (I said as much), but he wasn't very good. He left Durant open behind the three-point line inexplicably on several occasions. And hell, it's not like Green doesn't still have the superior defensive numbers against Durant than Leonard does.

Now does that mean that I disagree with you that stats aren't the end-all, be-all? Of course not. There are lots of qualitative things that go into defense besides what shows up in numbers. That doesn't make the numbers deceptive nor does it invalidate a statistical analysis.

As for your OT: I'm not being sarcastic about the media paying too much attention to Leonard. They overrate the hell out of him. I like Kawhi a lot. I'm glad he's on the team, and I hope he's around for years. But he's overrated--still. They put out articles about how he's the real MVP of the team, citing that stupid 9-8 stat. You had people pump up his Game One when it was really mediocre on both sides of the ball. People can't seem to root for teams unless they have stars to cling to, so the media creates them to write their stories around. That's what happened to Paul George and Damien Lillard. The difference is Kawhi's smarter than George and is going to stay humble for longer. But it will come back to bite the team eventually.

[wildchild]

You shouldn't criticize my use of stats if you misunderstand them. Kawhi didn't have the lowest PPP of anyone on the team. He didn't even have the lowest PPP on Durant. So if you're going to disregard sample size, do it right.

I didn't say "on the team" or "on Durant" or all series, I said over Danny in Game 2.

About the media creating heroes and villains, I don't have problem with that while the supposed "heroe" is a Spurs player.

[Chinook]

I didn't say "on the team" or "on Durant" or all series, I said over Danny in Game 2.

About the media creating heroes and villains, I don't have problem with that while the supposed "heroe" is a Spurs player.

I don't even know what to say. My OP's tl;dr said Leonard wasn't the best defender on the team in Game One. I don't even know what you're attacking at this point.

As for your second point, I am fine with the media like Spurs players. I don't like the media to claim certain Spurs are stars when they're not and to overrate they're relative impact.

[spurraider21]

Chin, what is the 9-8 stat you are referring to?

[Chinook]

Chin, what is the 9-8 stat you are referring to?

The record when Kawhi was out.

[Darkwaters]

Great write-ups. Keep them coming Chinook.

[ElNono]

I'm a numbers guy, and appreciate analysis like this one. What's important to remember though is that it needs to be kept in perspective.

There's a whole lot more going on that just the simple focus on a certain area (which is what the numbers Chinook compile here are trying to convey). There are things like lineup combinations (which involve more esoteric things such as "chemistry"), offensive contributions, specific round-to-round and game-to-game matchup opportunities, ability to execute, familiarity with the system (the famed corporate knowledge), even the "hot-hand", etc that are also taken into account when making decisions.

I'm pointing this out because it's not uncommon to bring up certain statistical analysis and start hearing "well, why doesn't player X plays more minutes?". Well, because there's many areas that weigh in those decisions, and it just isn't that simple. You don't have to look too far to find a team that relied extensively on cold, hard numbers and underachieved (hi Rockets). Numbers are one extremely useful tool, as long as you understand they only tell you part of the story.

[ElNono]

All that said, keep em coming. They're certainly a good read, and especially against an opponent as talented as OKC.

[Chinook]

I'm a numbers guy, and appreciate analysis like this one. What's important to remember though is that it needs to be kept in perspective.

There's a whole lot more going on that just the simple focus on a certain area (which is what the numbers Chinook compile here are trying to convey). There are things like lineup combinations (which involve more esoteric things such as "chemistry"), offensive contributions, specific round-to-round and game-to-game matchup opportunities, ability to execute, familiarity with the system (the famed corporate knowledge), even the "hot-hand", etc that are also taken into account when making decisions.

I'm pointing this out because it's not uncommon to bring up certain statistical analysis and start hearing "well, why doesn't player X plays more minutes?". Well, because there's many areas that weigh in those decisions, and it just isn't that simple. You don't have to look too far to find a team that relied extensively on cold, hard numbers and underachieved (hi Rockets). Numbers are one extremely useful tool, as long as you understand they only tell you part of the story.

Indeed. I'm definitely not claiming that numbers (especially MY numbers) show inarguable truth. They don't. They're just numbers. They only indicate what happened under the confines I specify. They don't show anything about why something happened, or even something's repeatability (probably the biggest misuse of stats).

So I'm throwing out these numbers with some of my subjective interpretation hoping other people bring their own interpretations so we can all have a discussion. Ideally, other people bring different bases of knowledge (play counts, line-up combos or especially a deeper familiarity with basketball than I have). That way, among us we can get a more-complete understanding of what happened.

This thread is supposed to be my contribution to the discussion, not my attempt to control it.

[HI-FI]

AKA my numbers are skewed to make Danny Green look good and to prove that Leonard is "overrated" by spurs fans.
:lol

[Shabazz]

Damn I'm so proud of Danny.

[Splits]

I'm a numbers guy, and appreciate analysis like this one. What's important to remember though is that it needs to be kept in perspective.

There's a whole lot more going on that just the simple focus on a certain area (which is what the numbers Chinook compile here are trying to convey). There are things like lineup combinations (which involve more esoteric things such as "chemistry"), offensive contributions, specific round-to-round and game-to-game matchup opportunities, ability to execute, familiarity with the system (the famed corporate knowledge), even the "hot-hand", etc that are also taken into account when making decisions.

I'm pointing this out because it's not uncommon to bring up certain statistical analysis and start hearing "well, why doesn't player X plays more minutes?". Well, because there's many areas that weigh in those decisions, and it just isn't that simple. You don't have to look too far to find a team that relied extensively on cold, hard numbers and underachieved (hi Rockets). Numbers are one extremely useful tool, as long as you understand they only tell you part of the story.

Manu sux

[spurraider21]

Chinook do you see any noticeable differences between a potential miami matchup this year compared to how they fared last season?

[ElNono]

Indeed. I'm definitely not claiming that numbers (especially MY numbers) show inarguable truth. They don't. They're just numbers. They only indicate what happened under the confines I specify. They don't show anything about why something happened, or even something's repeatability (probably the biggest misuse of stats).

So I'm throwing out these numbers with some of my subjective interpretation hoping other people bring their own interpretations so we can all have a discussion. Ideally, other people bring different bases of knowledge (play counts, line-up combos or especially a deeper familiarity with basketball than I have). That way, among us we can get a more-complete understanding of what happened.

This thread is supposed to be my contribution to the discussion, not my attempt to control it.

Yeah, it wasn't specifically aimed at you.

[Chinook]

Chinook do you see any noticeable differences between a potential miami matchup this year compared to how they fared last season?

Yes. Splitter and Diaw are much better. That should allow the Spurs to play big. Miami having no Miller means Battier will play big minutes. If Splitter can win that match-up, the Heat will have the same defensive problems OKC is having. Also having both Mills and Beli instead of Neal allows Pop to diversify his small-ball lineups, meaning no need for Beli on Chalmers.

[HI-FI]

Yes. Splitter and Diaw are much better. That should allow the Spurs to play big. Miami having no Miller means Battier will play big minutes. If Splitter can win that match-up, the Heat will have the same defensive problems OKC is having. Also having both Mills and Beli instead of Neal allows Pop to diversify his small-ball lineups, meaning no need for Beli on Chalmers.
the goods. any adjustments you see from OKC going forward? :tu on the insights as well, interesting stuff though above my pay grade.

[Asshole]

Sorry in advance, but this is going to be a long-assed post.

During last year’s Finals, I took a shit.

The biggest caveat to all this is that the best defense is to not even allow a cum shot. In that regard, the numbers may be a little misleading, especially for me All in all, take these numbers for what they are, but don’t look for context. My opinion is better than anyone else’s.

It’s also pretty clear that the type of close-out that occurs is not dependent on the receiver, but rather on the cum shooter. Players got hard on Sefalosha without fail and ate him up, but were much more cautious with Butler who has a tight anus and who’s more of a threat inside the arc.

These are the facts, so I may well have missed somethings/made some errors.

Do you often apologize beforehand?

[spurraider21]

Yeah, Splitter's play is going to be crucial. Last year he couldn't really find ways to be impactful against Miami, and we almost won despite that.

When earlier in the year we were discussing the potential matchup with OKC (assuming health), I was talking about how key it was for Splitter to be able to impose himself, to force OKC to go big (with Perkins + Ibaka, or Collison + Ibaka). In 2012, OKC played small and pretty much disrespected Tiago, and they got away with it because Splitter wasn't scoring against smaller defenders.

The same applies to Miami. If Splitter becomes an issue (wins the matchup against Battier, forces them to adjust), Miami will have to play Bosh + Birdman or Bosh + Haslem more, which favors the Spurs as well. We are fit to play small-ball, but if we take teams like Miami/OKC out of their small ball comfort zones, we stand a much better chance. It's why the Pacers have given Miami fits despite the talent disparity.

[Chinook]

Do you often apologize beforehand?

Nah. I usually plow straight in and let them play catch-up.

[Chinook]

Yeah, Splitter's play is going to be crucial. Last year he couldn't really find ways to be impactful against Miami, and we almost won despite that.

When earlier in the year we were discussing the potential matchup with OKC (assuming health), I was talking about how key it was for Splitter to be able to impose himself, to force OKC to go big (with Perkins + Ibaka, or Collison + Ibaka). In 2012, OKC played small and pretty much disrespected Tiago, and they got away with it because Splitter wasn't scoring against smaller defenders.

The same applies to Miami. If Splitter becomes an issue (wins the matchup against Battier, forces them to adjust), Miami will have to play Bosh + Birdman or Bosh + Haslem more, which favors the Spurs as well. We are fit to play small-ball, but if we take teams like Miami/OKC out of their small ball comfort zones, we stand a much better chance. It's why the Pacers have given Miami fits despite the talent disparity.

The thing is, Diaw can be every bit as effective as West. If Boris is still in 2.0 mode, I have little doubt he can either force the Heat to play big or draw James off Parker. Splitter doesn't have to force Battier off the floor to be effective, since Tiago is good at close-outs from what I can see. He just needs to make sure he finishes the PnR. I also have a lot of confidence in Splitter on Bosh.

I agree the Spurs would like to keep Miami big, but with Diaw playing so well, the Spurs are able to stay big even when teams go small and punish them. It's weird. It's like the Spurs are able to match Miami small-ball inch for inch while still keeping their traditional identity.

[Chinook]

the goods. any adjustments you see from OKC going forward? :tu on the insights as well, interesting stuff though above my pay grade.

They haven't tried a kamikaze swarm yet, so they still have adjustments to make. My guess is they get length and athleticism on the floor to disrupt passing lanes. They'll foul the bigs a lot but hope they get away with it due to being at home. Brooks sent Perkins in the game for his second stint just to foul Splitter. He'll probably do more of that.

[spurraider21]

their best bet at a long-athletic lineup would include adams/perry jones/durant/westbrook/jackson... but jones would gets destroyed in the paint

[BillMc]

Chinook, thanks for an excellent post, one of the best things I've read on here in a long time. The resultant "fly-by" vs "no-fly-by" debate has been fascinating.

[Asshole]

Chincock, thanks for an excellent post, one of the best things I've read on here in a long time.
Thanks for sharing how fucked your life is.

Three people just killed themselves reading this post.

[Baam]

At some point TP looked really winded so he asked Green to pickup Chuckbrook, was pretty funny : "nah I'm too tired for this shit, you go for it".

Good thread overall, it's just extremely hard to rate defensive performances... Green and Kawhi are both very good, Kawhi has the edge to me but depending on matchups Green can easily outplay Kawhi on defense during a whole series... Kinda like reverse CoP and CoM, same shit on a different end of the court.

Regarding hard close outs there're fine if you don't mind the target driving, like Sefo, on the other hand if you also have to contain prenetration you can't go as hard for the challenge... That ties the point about matchups, the ball fake master Wade seems likes bad matchup for Green while he did way better than expected against LeBron. People are gonna say I'm nuts but I'd seriously consider Green and Boris on LeBron with the crunch time defender depending on what LeBron is having success with (low post or outside shot) while Kawhi completely shuts down Wade (who rarely shoots 3s so he'd be always in position to rebound as well).

[Chinook]

tl;dr: If you don't care about looking back at Games Three and Four, wait until tomorrow to look at this thread.

All right. So I know that this thread has been dead for a while now. I haven’t updated it since Game Two. That was due to a combination of a busy week, some technical difficulties, and my general reluctance to look back on such depressing games. However, now that it’s the weekend, I intend to get back on track.

Over the next 24 hours, I will be posting the numbers for Games Three, Four and Five. I won’t provide much analysis for the former two games, as they are pretty much ancient history at this point. I’ll commentate a bit on some trends I found interesting, but for the most part I’m just posting the numbers for anyone who’s been curious. I intend to give a more-honest breakdown of Game Five, however.

So now, the Game Three numbers (NOTE: “Series” means through Game Three, not total):



Durant









































Game 3

Possesions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP


Series

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP




Leonard

10

4

3

1

2

11

1.1


Leonard

30

14

11

2

3

34

1.133333




Green

6

2

3

1

0

6

1


Green

13

4

7

2

1

10

0.769231




Parker

1

0

0

1

0

2

2


Belinelli

3

0

2

1

0

2

0.666667




Belinelli

2

0

1

1

0

2

1


Duncan

4

1

1

2

1

5

1.25




Duncan

2

0

1

0

1

0

0


Splitter

7

2

3

1

1

6

0.857143




Splitter

2

1

1

0

0

2

1


Ginobili

8

3

3

1

2

8

1




Diaw

3

0

2

0

1

0

0


Baynes

2

0

0

0

2

0

0




Ginobili

1

1

0

0

0

2

2


Parker

3

0

1

1

1

2

0.666667













Diaw

4

0

2

1

1

0

0




Total

27

8

11

4

4

25

0.925926






















Total

74

24

30

11

12

67

0.905405







Westbrook





















Game 3

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP


Series

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP




Leonard

2

0

1

0

1

0

0


Leonard

5

1

2

1

2

2

0.4




Green

7

3

2

1

1

6

0.857143


Green

24

8

11

2

3

19

0.791667




Parker

1

1

0

0

0

2

2


Parker

12

3

7

1

1

9

0.75




Belinelli

1

0

1

0

0

0

0


Duncan

8

2

2

3

0

9

1.125




Mills

1

1

0

0

0

3

3


Splitter

6

2

3

0

1

3

0.5




Duncan

2

0

1

1

0

2

1


Diaw

3

1

2

0

0

2

0.666667




Splitter

1

1

0

0

0

2

2


Ginobili

17

6

4

3

5

17

1




Ginobili

10

2

3

2

3

9

0.9


Baynes

1

0

1

0

0

0

0




Joseph

1

0

1

0

0

0

0


Mills

3

1

2

0

0

3

1




Bonner

2

1

1

0

0

2

1


Belinelli

2

0

2

0

0

0

0













Bonner

2

1

1

0

0

2

1




Total

28

8

11

4

5

26

0.928571


Joseph

1

0

1

0

0

0

0

































Total

84

25

38

10

12

66

0.785714



Jackson





















Game 3

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP


Series

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP




Leonard

2

0

1

1

0

2

1


Green

8

2

4

0

2

4

0.5




Green

2

1

1

0

0

2

1


Parker

5

3

2

0

0

7

1.4




Parker

3

2

1

0

0

5

1.666667


Belinelli

6

4

1

0

1

9

1.5




Belinelli

3

1

1

0

1

2

0.666667


Mills

3

1

0

1

2

2

0.666667




Mills

2

1

0

0

1

2

1


Duncan

5

2

1

0

1

3

0.6




Duncan

3

1

1

0

1

2

0.666667


Diaw

2

1

1

0

0

2

1




Splitter

1

1

0

0

0

0

0


Ginobili

4

3

1

0

0

6

1.5




Diaw

1

0

1

0

0

0

0


Splitter

3

1

2

0

0

0

0













Leonard

2

0

1

1

0

2

1




Total

17


7

1

3

15

0.882353






















Total

38

17

13

2

6

35

0.921053






Ibaka












Game 3

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP




Parker

1

1

0

0

0

2

2




Bonner

1

0

0

1

0

1

1




Splitter

6

5

0

1

0

12

2




Diaw

2

0

1

0

1

0

0















Total

10

6

1

2

1

15

1.5




Obviously, with Ibaka back, I don’t have to look for a fourth scorer to feature each game. This will be the cast going forward, provided no one else has a breakout performance.

General Notes:

On the subject of Ibaka … damn Splitter got wrecked. Tiago struggled all game closing out on Serge after helping on the PnR handler. Obviously, it got to the point that Pop benched him for Bonner in Game Five. That’s the bad news. The good news is that with Ibaka PnPing so much, OKC didn’t really screen much with Duncan’s man (or at least not in many high PnRs/PnPs). That let Tim stay nearer to the basket. Needless to say, Tim had his best defensive game of the series at least to that point. OKC needs to figure out a balance if they want to exploit Duncan’s lack of mobility.

The game was not fun to watch again for the final score, but it was a joy to see the Ginobili/Westbrook battle. That was Manu’s finest defensive performance in a long time. We all know Russ went HAM in Game Four, but if Ginobili can put together another defensive performance like the ones he had in Games Two and Three tomorrow, it’s going to be hard for OKC to score. Manu was great on both sides of the ball, and it’s a shame the Spurs wasted that.

Leonard had a pretty horrible Game Three defensively. His numbers are pretty strong, but they don’t tell the whole story. Kawhi kept leaving his teammates out to dry in transition and by getting out of position in the half-court. Those mistakes didn’t show up on his stat sheet (and did on Green’s, Manu’s and Parker’s), but he deserved the marks. It’s also concerning that Durant still felt like he could score on Kawhi any time he wanted. But that’s not Leonard’s fault.

That’s it for this game, at least as far as what I think should be said at this point. If anyone has any questions or comments, feel free to let me know. Game Four’s numbers will be up later tonight.

[ElNono]

Thanks for the update. :tu

Yeah, Manu's defensive game is still pretty good, and consistently underrated, tbh...

[Baam]

Good stuff :toast. I think it's pretty much impossible to recover and contest on Ibaka, Diaw couldn't do it in 2012 and Tiago cant do it now, you have to pick your poison... Maybe Kawhi could have a shot but he did well on Chuckbrook, besides having Bonner out there was actually good in the way that it made Ibaka attack directly off the dribble and in the post which are areas where he sucks... On the other hand Bonner never really denied the penetration in the first place so he never/rarely had to recover... So he's gonna have good numbers vs Ibaka while playing below average to crappy D...

[BillMc]

tl;dr: If you don't care about looking back at Games Three and Four, wait until tomorrow to look at this thread.

All right. So I know that this thread has been dead for a while now. I haven’t updated it since Game Two. That was due to a combination of a busy week, some technical difficulties, and my general reluctance to look back on such depressing games. However, now that it’s the weekend, I intend to get back on track.

Over the next 24 hours, I will be posting the numbers for Games Three, Four and Five. I won’t provide much analysis for the former two games, as they are pretty much ancient history at this point. I’ll commentate a bit on some trends I found interesting, but for the most part I’m just posting the numbers for anyone who’s been curious. I intend to give a more-honest breakdown of Game Five, however.

So now, the Game Three numbers (NOTE: “Series” means through Game Three, not total):



Durant








































Game 3
Possesions
Makes
Misses
Fouls
Turnover
Points
PPP

Series
Possessions
Makes
Misses
Fouls
Turnover
Points
PPP



Leonard
10
4
3
1
2
11
1.1

Leonard
30
14
11
2
3
34
1.133333



Green
6
2
3
1
0
6
1

Green
13
4
7
2
1
10
0.769231



Parker
1
0
0
1
0
2
2

Belinelli
3
0
2
1
0
2
0.666667



Belinelli
2
0
1
1
0
2
1

Duncan
4
1
1
2
1
5
1.25



Duncan
2
0
1
0
1
0
0

Splitter
7
2
3
1
1
6
0.857143



Splitter
2
1
1
0
0
2
1

Ginobili
8
3
3
1
2
8
1



Diaw
3
0
2
0
1
0
0

Baynes
2
0
0
0
2
0
0



Ginobili
1
1
0
0
0
2
2

Parker
3
0
1
1
1
2
0.666667












Diaw
4
0
2
1
1
0
0



Total
27
8
11
4
4
25
0.925926





















Total
74
24
30
11
12
67
0.905405






Westbrook




















Game 3
Possessions
Makes
Misses
Fouls
Turnover
Points
PPP

Series
Possessions
Makes
Misses
Fouls
Turnover
Points
PPP



Leonard
2
0
1
0
1
0
0

Leonard
5
1
2
1
2
2
0.4



Green
7
3
2
1
1
6
0.857143

Green
24
8
11
2
3
19
0.791667



Parker
1
1
0
0
0
2
2

Parker
12
3
7
1
1
9
0.75



Belinelli
1
0
1
0
0
0
0

Duncan
8
2
2
3
0
9
1.125



Mills
1
1
0
0
0
3
3

Splitter
6
2
3
0
1
3
0.5



Duncan
2
0
1
1
0
2
1

Diaw
3
1
2
0
0
2
0.666667



Splitter
1
1
0
0
0
2
2

Ginobili
17
6
4
3
5
17
1



Ginobili
10
2
3
2
3
9
0.9

Baynes
1
0
1
0
0
0
0



Joseph
1
0
1
0
0
0
0

Mills
3
1
2
0
0
3
1



Bonner
2
1
1
0
0
2
1

Belinelli
2
0
2
0
0
0
0












Bonner
2
1
1
0
0
2
1



Total
28
8
11
4
5
26
0.928571

Joseph
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
































Total
84
25
38
10
12
66
0.785714


Jackson




















Game 3
Possessions
Makes
Misses
Fouls
Turnover
Points
PPP

Series
Possessions
Makes
Misses
Fouls
Turnover
Points
PPP



Leonard
2
0
1
1
0
2
1

Green
8
2
4
0
2
4
0.5



Green
2
1
1
0
0
2
1

Parker
5
3
2
0
0
7
1.4



Parker
3
2
1
0
0
5
1.666667

Belinelli
6
4
1
0
1
9
1.5



Belinelli
3
1
1
0
1
2
0.666667

Mills
3
1
0
1
2
2
0.666667



Mills
2
1
0
0
1
2
1

Duncan
5
2
1
0
1
3
0.6



Duncan
3
1
1
0
1
2
0.666667

Diaw
2
1
1
0
0
2
1



Splitter
1
1
0
0
0
0
0

Ginobili
4
3
1
0
0
6
1.5



Diaw
1
0
1
0
0
0
0

Splitter
3
1
2
0
0
0
0












Leonard
2
0
1
1
0
2
1



Total
17

7
1
3
15
0.882353





















Total
38
17
13
2
6
35
0.921053





Ibaka











Game 3
Possessions
Makes
Misses
Fouls
Turnover
Points
PPP



Parker
1
1
0
0
0
2
2



Bonner
1
0
0
1
0
1
1



Splitter
6
5
0
1
0
12
2



Diaw
2
0
1
0
1
0
0














Total
10
6
1
2
1
15
1.5



Obviously, with Ibaka back, I don’t have to look for a fourth scorer to feature each game. This will be the cast going forward, provided no one else has a breakout performance.

General Notes:

On the subject of Ibaka … damn Splitter got wrecked. Tiago struggled all game closing out on Serge after helping on the PnR handler. Obviously, it got to the point that Pop benched him for Bonner in Game Five. That’s the bad news. The good news is that with Ibaka PnPing so much, OKC didn’t really screen much with Duncan’s man (or at least not in many high PnRs/PnPs). That let Tim stay nearer to the basket. Needless to say, Tim had his best defensive game of the series at least to that point. OKC needs to figure out a balance if they want to exploit Duncan’s lack of mobility.

The game was not fun to watch again for the final score, but it was a joy to see the Ginobili/Westbrook battle. That was Manu’s finest defensive performance in a long time. We all know Russ went HAM in Game Four, but if Ginobili can put together another defensive performance like the ones he had in Games Two and Three tomorrow, it’s going to be hard for OKC to score. Manu was great on both sides of the ball, and it’s a shame the Spurs wasted that.

Leonard had a pretty horrible Game Three defensively. His numbers are pretty strong, but they don’t tell the whole story. Kawhi kept leaving his teammates out to dry in transition and by getting out of position in the half-court. Those mistakes didn’t show up on his stat sheet (and did on Green’s, Manu’s and Parker’s), but he deserved the marks. It’s also concerning that Durant still felt like he could score on Kawhi any time he wanted. But that’s not Leonard’s fault.

That’s it for this game, at least as far as what I think should be said at this point. If anyone has any questions or comments, feel free to let me know. Game Four’s numbers will be up later tonight.

Cheers man, thanks for all the hard work. It's a good read. Looking forward to the updates.

[Chinook]

tl;dr: The next long post I make in this thread will be relevant. I promise.

As promised (though a little late), here are the numbers for Game Four.



Durant





















Game 4

Possesions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP


Series

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP




Leonard

6

4

2

1

0

8

1.333333


Leonard

36

18

13

3

3

42

1.166667




Green

3

1

1

1

0

4

1.333333


Green

16

5

8

3

1

14

0.875




Belinelli

1

1

0

0

0

2

2


Belinelli

4

1

2

1

0

4

1




Duncan

2

1

0

1

0

3

1.5


Duncan

6

2

1

3

1

8

1.333333




Diaw

3

3

0

0

0

7

2.333333


Splitter

7

2

3

1

1

6

0.857143




Ginobili

2

1

1

0

0

3

1.5


Ginobili

10

4

4

1

2

11

1.1




Bonner

3

0

3

1

0

0

0


Baynes

4

0

1

1

2

1

0.25




Baynes

2

0

1

1

0

1

0.5


Parker

3

0

1

1

1

2

0.666667




Joseph

1

0

0

1

0

2

2


Diaw

7

3

2

1

1

7

1




Ayres

3

0

3

0

0

0

0


Bonner

3

0

3

1

0

0

0




Pop

1

0

0

1

0

1

1


Ayres

3

0

3

0

0

0

0













Joseph

1

0

0

1

0

2

2




Total

27

11

11

7

0

31

1.148148


Pop

1

0

0

1

0

1

1

































Total

101

35

41

18

12

98

0.970297






Westbrook





















Game 4

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP


Series

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP




Green

3

1

2

0

0

2

0.666667


Leonard

5

1

2

1

2

2

0.4




Parker

10

3

6

1

0

8

0.8


Green

27

9

13

2

3

21

0.777778




Belinelli

2

1

0

1

0

4

2


Parker

22

6

13

2

1

17

0.772727




Mills

1

1

0

0

0

2

2


Duncan

8

2

2

3

0

9

1.125




Diaw

4

1

1

1

1

5

1.25


Splitter

6

2

3

0

1

3

0.5




Ginobili

1

0

0

2

0

2

2


Diaw

7

2

3

1

1

7

1




Joseph

8

4

2

3

2

9

1.125


Ginobili

18

6

4

5

5

19

1.055556




Baynes

2

0

0

2

0

4

2


Baynes

3

0

1

2

0

4

1.333333




Ayres

3

1

1

1

0

4

1.333333


Mills

4

2

2

0

0

5

1.25













Belinelli

4

1

2

1

0

4

1




Total

34

12

12

11

3

40

1.176471


Bonner

2

1

1

0

0

2

1













Joseph

9

4

3

3

2

9

1













Ayres

3

1

1

1

0

4

1.333333

































Total

118

37

50

21

15

106

0.898305






Jackson





















Game 4

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP


Series

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP




Green

2

0

1

0

1

0

0


Green

10

2

5

0

3

4

0.4




Parker

2

1

1

0

0

3

1.5


Parker

7

4

3

0

0

10

1.428571




Mills

1

0

1

0

0

0

0


Belinelli

6

4

1

0

1

9

1.5




Splitter

1

0

1

0

0

0

0


Mills

4

1

1

1

2

2

0.5




Ginobili

1

0

0

1

1

0

0


Duncan

5

2

1

0

1

3

0.6













Diaw

2

1

1

0

0

2

1




Total

7

1

4

1

2

3

0.428571


Ginobili

5

3

1

1

1

6

1.2













Splitter

1

1

3

0

0

0

0













Leonard

2

0

1

1

0

2

1

































Total

42

18

17

3

8

38

0.904762






Ibaka





















Game 4

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP


Series

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP




Green

2

1

0

0

1

2

1


Parker

1

1

0

0

0

2

2




Belinelli

2

1

1

0

0

2

1


Bonner

1

0

0

1

0

1

1




Splitter

4

1

3

0

0

2

0.5


Splitter

10

6

3

1

0

14

1.4




Diaw

2

1

0

1

0

3

1.5


Diaw

4

1

1

1

1

3

0.75




Joseph

1

0

0

1

0

0

0


Belinelli

2

1

1

0

0

2

1













Green

2

1

0

0

1

2

1




Total

11

4

4

2

1

9

0.818182


Joseph

1

0

0

1

0

0

0

































Total

21

10

5

4

2

24

1.142857




General Takeways:

The most important thing to take away from this game is that it really wasn’t as bad as it looked. Westbrook didn’t really have a good offensive game. He just shot a lot. Durant faded down the stretch. Ibaka didn’t kill anyone on offense. The loss on Tuesday had much more to do with offense than defense. Green and Diaw being dead from three really hurt the Spurs.

The big storyline coming out of Game Four was that Pop made a huge mistake playing Parker on Westbrook. Perhaps that was indeed the case, as he did switch Kawhi on Russ for Game Five. But I don’t believe the switch was made due to Westbrook going off on Parker. According to my numbers, he simply didn’t. Parker played really good D on Westbrook (much better than he’s played on Jackson, for example). I actually liked the move, as Parker plays his best when he’s engaged on both ends. Tony played good defense while also avoiding trying to trade buckets. That was a huge win.

In actuality, I think Pop made the switch because OKC’s 1/3 PnR was killing a Parker/Leonard defensive duo. This wasn’t really Tony’s fault, as he did a decent job of fighting over Durant’s screens. However, Leonard has a lot to learn about defending the PnR as the screener’s man. He often got out of position on his hedges, and he was neither able to stop Westbrook or get back to Durant. By moving Kawhi onto Russ in Game Five, Pop pretty much prevented Leonard from being in that defensive position again.

The other big storyline out of this game was Splitter’s inability to guard Ibaka. The Thunder won Game Four, so many people didn’t notice, but Serge began his descent back to Earth pretty early on Tuesday night. Tiago did a great job recovering to him while also not allowing a clean drive. OKC thought they had a huge offensive advantage there, but they really didn’t. Unless Ibaka can repeat his Game Three performance, OKC is going to have to hope for huge games (like 40+ points) out of Durant and Westbrook.

As far as individual perimeter defense goes: Green was pretty good in his short time. As I said before, his offense was really the problem. He didn’t shoot a whole bunch like he did in Game Three, but he really didn’t make many good plays on that end when he was out there. Leonard was fine on Durant in the half-court, but he got lost in transition quite a few times, forcing others to scramble. He wasn’t alone in this, however. Beli doesn’t seem to understand when it’s his responsibility to get back. (Green and Parker are excellent at knowing when to do this.) At least Kawhi can claim that he was going for a rebound. Beli has no excuse. Finally, upon further inspection, Joseph’s performance Tuesday night is overrated. He wasn’t really all that good on defense. He simply had a couple of really nice sequences. He almost fouled out in one quarter. That’s all you need to know.

Just one last quick note. I am still keeping track of close-out numbers. The Spurs were pretty lax in Game Four, only giving hard-closes on 4/12 attempts. They didn’t even try to close out on four. Needless to say, the Thunder had their most-successful outing in that sphere, scoring on 8/12 Spurs close-out opportunities.

All right. On to Game Five. Those numbers and commentary should be posted tomorrow during the early or mid afternoon.

[Splits]

Thanks, Chinny. Thing that jumps out to me the most is that in G4 Kawhi didn't cover a single possession against Westchuck but was glued to him all of G5 (or at least that's what I'm expecting to see in those numbers tomorrow). I guess they felt comfortable putting Green on Durant given the success he'd had in G1-4, and Manu since his numbers were also not bad in a decent sample size.

:toast

[spurraider21]

thanks Chinook :tu... good stuff as usual. good to see posters stepping up and providing constant goods in timvp's absence :lol

[Splits]

Also :wow at Parker getting torched by that Somali pirate. Those series totals are going to be even worse when you add in game 5, he was on Jackson for all 5 of his makes in the 1st quarter IIRC

[wildchild]

Good read! Thanks!

Also, when the reporters asked Danny about the change's reason, he said it was to prevent the Westbrook/Durant pick and roll. To OP! :toast


Westbrook didn’t really have a good offensive game. He just shot a lot
But a good D is not allow players shot a lot, too. And that's why I think Parker did a good effort but not played really good D on Westbrook as you said.

We can't only see the PPP stats to analyse globally the defense. There are a lot of factors to take into account like allowing more or less attempts in a game, more or less contested/uncontested shots, etc.

If we use these stats to guide the Spurs future move on D, Belli (1) -according PPP series- was a lot better defender on Durant than Leonard (1,6) or Manu (1,1)...



Kawhi didn't cover a single possession against Westchuck but was glued to him all of G5 (or at least that's what I'm expecting to see in those numbers tomorrow).

The best thing of Leonard on Westbrook game 5 was Leonard didn't allow Westbrook get many looks in paint, holding him to only 2 shots at the rim.

But Chinook numbers don't show those things, because like he said his stats ignore possessions that don't end in shots, fouls or turnovers. So the best of Leonard defense is disregarded by his numbers and analysis.

[Chinook]

But a good D is not allow players shot a lot, too. And that's why I think Parker did a good effort but not played really good D on Westbrook as you said.

We can't only see the PPP stats to analyse globally the defense. There are a lot of factors to take into account like allowing more or less attempts in a game, more or less contested/uncontested shots, etc.

If we use these stats to guide the Spurs future move on D, Belli (1) -according PPP series- was a lot better defender on Durant than Leonard (1,6) or Manu (1,1)...

You don't change defensive schemes based on a few possessions (in Beli's case). Leonard, Green and Manu are each putting in a lot of work against both Durant and Westbrook, so their individual numbers are becoming more stable. I doubt Beli will play enough in this series for him to get enough possessions to be reliable.

You're right ball-denial is the most important aspect to perimeter defense. However, Westbrook is a score-first PG. You can't deny him the ball because he already has it before the play begins. Also, Westbrook's PPP against Parker was a good deal lower than OKC's team PPP (about 1.1). So in theory, it would have been a really sound defensive strategy to let Russ try to score as many as he can against Parker while ignoring more-efficient players. It's a classic case of "letting him get his".


The best thing of Leonard on Westbrook game 5 was Leonard didn't allow Westbrook get many looks in paint, holding him to only 2 shots at the rim.

But Chinook numbers don't show those things, because like he said his stats ignore possessions that don't end in shots, fouls or turnovers. So the best of Leonard defense is disregarded by his numbers and analysis.

If he really did that, then my subjective analysis will point that out. I am about to do the Game Five numbers as I type this. I will say that I assign blame differently that many people do. Like if Westbrook were to blow by Kawhi and dunk on Splitter, most people would consider that as being Splitter allowing Westbrook a paint score. But if Splitter helped well and Russ just made a great play, I'd assign the mark to Leonard. We'll see. I definitely think that Kawhi got better on Russell as the game wore on. After that dunk, Westbrook didn't really make a lot of noise.

And, yes. Leonard's strongest attribute on defense is ignored by the stats, but so are his worst attributes. If he messes up and leads to a breakdown elsewhere, then he doesn't get the marks for that. If he doesn't hustle on the break and his man gets a score, he often doesn't get the marks for that. So it cuts both ways, as all PPP does. Green's best attributes do get highlighted by PPP, but his breakdowns almost always lead to his man scoring, so his PPP allowed reflects his negative plays as well.

[will_spurs]

The big storyline coming out of Game Four was that Pop made a huge mistake playing Parker on Westbrook.

Why was it a "huge mistake"? Actually this series Parker is the best on Westbrook, every bit as good as Green... yet one is often labeled as a spotty defender, and the other as one of the best.

What I also find interesting is that Durant seems to have issues scoring over bigs: Splitter, Baynes, Ayres and even Bonner all do very well against him.

[benstanfield]

IMO Westbrook scoring semi-efficiently on 35 possessions is more valuable to this Thunder team, as constructed, than KD scoring hyper-efficiently on 25 possessions. With only 2.5 real offensive weapons they need their superstars to nut up and go hero mode at the cost of efficiency if the Spurs are rolling. KD seems content to get his 28 points on 50%+ shooting and lose as long as his box scores look MVP level.

[Chinook]

Why was it a "huge mistake"? Actually this series Parker is the best on Westbrook, every bit as good as Green... yet one is often labeled as a spotty defender, and the other as one of the best.

I think you misunderstood what I wrote. Parker's apparent poor defense was a storyline going into Game Five because many posters and media types were pushing it. Many folks assumed the decision to put Leonard on Westbrook was Pop's response to Tony's porous D, and supposedly Pop backed that up by declaring that Parker 'wouldn't spend on second on Westbrook'. However, the point I was making is that the numbers (as I have collected them at least) demonstrate that Parker has defended Russ very well the entire series. The switch, I feel, was more about Leonard's struggle to guard a 1/3 PnR (specifically that Kawhi didn't know when to hedge, lay off or switch) when Tony was guarding Westbrook than it was with Parker's actual effort, though Pop may have done the switch to preserve Tony as well.

As far as the differences between the way Parker and Green are viewed defensively. I'd say off the bat that Danny is underrated as a defender. More than that, though, Green's considered superior to Parker due to his consistency, team impact and versatility. When Tony is motivated, he's a very strong defender against point-guards. But Green's been doing work against elite perimeter scorers for a few years now. The fact that Danny has played huge (and successful) minutes on Westbrook and Durant, shut down Reggie Jackson and taken Fisher and Butler out of the series is why he's been defensive MVP so far. That doesn't discount that job that Parker and even Leonard have done, though. The Spurs' perimeter defense has been strong all series, even when it didn't look like it.

[Chinook]

Finally! This is the moment some undisclosed but probably really small number of you have been waiting for. Here are the Game Five numbers:



Durant





















Game 5

Possesions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP


Series

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP




Leonard

4

0

3

0

1

0

0


Leonard

40

18

16

3

4

42

1.05




Green

6

3

3

1

0

7

1.166667


Green

22

8

11

4

1

21

0.954545




Duncan

2

0

1

1

0

1

0.5


Belinelli

4

1

2

1

0

4

1




Splitter

1

0

1

0

0

0

0


Duncan

8

2

2

4

1

9

1.125




Diaw

2

1

1

0

0

2

1


Splitter

8

2

4

1

1

6

0.75




Ginobili

9

7

1

2

0

15

1.666667


Ginobili

19

11

5

3

2

26

1.368421













Baynes

4

0

1

1

2

1

0.25




Total

24

11

10

4

1

25

1.041667


Parker

3

0

1

1

1

2

0.666667













Diaw

9

4

3

1

1

9

1













Bonner

3

0

3

1

0

0

0













Ayres

3

0

3

0

0

0

0













Joseph

1

0

0

1

0

2

2













Pop

1

0

0

1

0

1

1

































Total

125

46

51

22

13

123

0.984


























Westbrook





















Game 5

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP


Series

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP




Leonard

13

5

5

3

1

14

1.076923


Leonard

18

6

7

4

3

16

0.888889




Green

1

1

0

0

0

3

3


Green

28

10

13

2

3

24

0.857143




Parker

1

0

0

1

0

2

2


Parker

23

6

13

3

1

19

0.826087




Ginobili

1

0

0

0

1

0

0


Duncan

9

2

3

4

0

9

1




Mills

1

0

0

1

0

2

2


Splitter

6

2

3

0

1

3

0.5




Duncan

1

0

1

1

0

0

0


Diaw

7

2

3

1

1

7

1













Ginobili

19

6

4

5

6

19

1




Total

18

6

6

6

2

21

1.166667


Baynes

3

0

1

2

0

4

1.333333













Mills

5

2

2

1

0

7

1.4













Belinelli

4

1

2

1

0

4

1













Bonner

2

1

1

0

0

2

1













Joseph

9

4

3

3

2

9

1













Ayres

3

1

1

1

0

4

1.333333

































Total

136

43

56

27

17

127

0.933824


























Jackson





















Game 5

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP


Series

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP




Duncan

1

1

0

0

0

2

2


Green

12

3

6

0

3

6

0.5




Green

2

1

1

0

0

2

1


Parker

14

7

5

0

2

17

1.214286




Parker

7

3

2

0

2

7

1


Belinelli

6

4

1

0

1

9

1.5




Diaw

1

0

1

0

0

0

0


Mills

4

1

1

1

2

2

0.5




Joseph

1

0

1

0

0

0

0


Duncan

6

3

1

0

1

5

0.833333













Diaw

3

1

2

0

0

2

0.666667




Total

12

5

5

0

2

11

0.916667


Ginobili

5

3

1

1

1

6

1.2













Splitter

1

1

3

0

0

0

0













Leonard

2

0

1

1

0

2

1













Joseph

1

0

1

0

0

0

0

































Total

54

23

22

3

10

49

0.907407




























Ibaka





















Game 5

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP


Series

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP




Duncan

2

0

2

0

0

0

0


Parker

1

1

0

0

0

2

2




Splitter

1

0

1

0

0

0

0


Bonner

4

0

3

1

0

1

0.25




Diaw

4

3

1

0

0

6

1.5


Splitter

11

6

4

1

0

14

1.272727




Bonner

3

0

3

0

0

0

0


Diaw

8

4

2

1

1

9

1.125













Belinelli

2

1

1

0

0

2

1




Total

10

3

7

0

0

6

0.6


Green

2

1

0

0

1

2

1













Joseph

1

0

0

1

0

0

0













Duncan

2

0

2

0

0

0

0

































Total

31

13

12

4

2

30

0.967742




General Takeways:

The thing that jumps out to me the post is that I think Pop and Brooks had two completely different impressions about what happened in Game Four. Pop seemed to overact to Westbrook’s explosion, putting Leonard on him and committing the bigs to help on penetration. Brooks seemed to think Russell shot too much and needed to get others involved. Both impressions were a little wrong-headed, in my opinion, but what they led to is Westbrook having a constant driving lane into Duncan, whom Russ refused to consistently challenge. Instead, Westbrook looked to pass a lot more when he could have drawn fouls, which led to some nice assist, but overall an easier offense for San Antonio to defend. It’s amazing to me that Brooks would be complaining about a lack of calls when the Thunder really didn’t attack the basket.

Strangely enough, the Thunder really didn’t run the 1/3 PnR very much. They instead seemed content to let Russ beat Kawhi off the dribble (which he did constantly, as I said in the last paragraph). However, that allowed Duncan to stay at home and contest drives, which is pretty much the exact opposite of what you want to make Tim do. Eventually the Thunder had some mild success running the 3/4 PnR, but that was only for a stretch in which Diaw was caught overhedging. By that same token, it’s also strange that Green was only involved in nine ended possessions against OKC’s Big Four. It’s possible that Brooks is starting to go away from Danny’s man.

Ginobili. Well, Durant made Manu his bitch in Game Five. There’s really not much more to say about that. I think Manu is a fine tertiary Durant defender, but Pop probably shouldn’t keep him on KD too long. After an exception Game Three defensively, Ginobili’s D has started to trend downwards. The good news is that if Jackson is unable to be effective going forward, then Manu will be able to draw Butler or Fisher more often.

Have we seen the last of Reggie Jackson and Serge Ibaka as scoring threats? Perhaps. Jackson really fell off after the first quarter Thursday, and Ibaka really fell off after Game Three. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them both start off hot tonight, but they may well cool off and even be ice cold by the second half. Lower leg injuries are no joke. It’s nice to see Splitter having some pride and shutting down Ibaka for two straight games, regardless, and Parker battled back in the second half after letting Jackson torch him to start the game.

The team went back to defending the three-point line aggressively, closing hard on 9/13 attempts. OKC scored on 2/4 soft-closes (the fouls from Bonner and Parker) and 2/9 hard-closes (and Durant three after Green helped on Ibaka and a Fisher three at the beginning of the second). A poster suggested that the time on the shot clock may affect which type of close the defender gives, and there may be some truth to that. Every soft close was before the 12-second mark on the shot clock, while 7/9 hard-closes occurred after. I’ll crunch those numbers later, along with other potential variables.

All right! All caught up. Now it’s time to sit back and not think about basketball for a few hours. I’ve seen too many games in the past day or so. Feedback and discussion always welcomed, though.

[will_spurs]

As far as the differences between the way Parker and Green are viewed defensively. I'd say off the bat that Danny is underrated as a defender. More than that, though, Green's considered superior to Parker due to his consistency, team impact and versatility. When Tony is motivated, he's a very strong defender against point-guards. But Green's been doing work against elite perimeter scorers for a few years now. The fact that Danny has played huge (and successful) minutes on Westbrook and Durant, shut down Reggie Jackson and taken Fisher and Butler out of the series is why he's been defensive MVP so far. That doesn't discount that job that Parker and even Leonard have done, though. The Spurs' perimeter defense has been strong all series, even when it didn't look like it.

First of all thanks for explaining what you meant about Parker vs Westbrook and the decision to have Kawhi get this defensive assignment.

Second it's clear that Green is much more versatile than Parker when it comes to D. But I think Parker's D is way underrated when it comes to shutting down the opposing PG. He might not do well against other players, but he shines against PG, especially stars (Westbrook, CP3, Deron Williams back when he was a star, etc.) Parker seems to be playing with a chip on his shoulder when facing other elite PGs and he usually comes out on top.

I'm quite impressed to see that Parker is as good as Kawhi or Green when it comes to defending Westbrook in this series. And it could be good news if Pop decided to let him do so and use Kawhi/Green on other threats. On the other hand I'll have to check in which games Parker defended Westbrook a lot, and if it affected his production on offense.

[Chinook]

First of all thanks for explaining what you meant about Parker vs Westbrook and the decision to have Kawhi get this defensive assignment.

Second it's clear that Green is much more versatile than Parker when it comes to D. But I think Parker's D is way underrated when it comes to shutting down the opposing PG. He might not do well against other players, but he shines against PG, especially stars (Westbrook, CP3, Deron Williams back when he was a star, etc.) Parker seems to be playing with a chip on his shoulder when facing other elite PGs and he usually comes out on top.

Completely agree. Parker knows how to be a very good defender. He just isn't always motivated to do so. When the movement strikes him, the Spurs' D becomes elite. However, it's also worth considering that he's getting older and probably can't sustain max effort at both sides for long stretches. That's why Jackson being hobbled may end up being so huge.

[UZER]

Great work man. Appreciate the information. My opinion is, there are certain things that numbers don't do justice.

For example:

An offensive player can score on a defensive player numerous times which will make it look like he's getting torched. However, the D player can be playing physical pesky defence and making the O player work extremely hard even though he's still scoring. As the game wears on the O player may be guarded by other players, but the work put in by the D player earlier has taken its toll whether he had "stopped" him or not, and the O player struggles with other players.

Or, a player can be 1-5 but hit a timely 3 that helps prevent a game from getting away.

To say Joseph's game 4 was overrated and his D wasn't that good is doing a disservice to him. Joseph's game for was huge as far as hussle and effort. Regardless of what his numbers said, his hard nosed play had an effect on the Spurs players, especially the throw down on Ibaka.

I'm not dismissing what numbers can show, but they can also be misleading if you strictly go by them.

[ElNono]

thanks for the writeup :tu

[Chinook]

You know what's an awesome feeling? Deleting the Game Seven template in my Excel file. Just wanted to say that. Game Six numbers will be up some time tomorrow.

[Chinook]

Last, but not least, here are the numbers for Game Six:



Durant





















Game 6

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP


Series

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP




Leonard

5

2

2

0

1

4

0.8


Leonard

45

20

18

3

5

46

1.022222




Green

14

6

4

1

4

12

0.857143


Green

36

14

15

5

5

33

0.916667




Diaw

5

1

1

4

0

7

1.4


Belinelli

4

1

2

1

0

4

1




Ginobili

6

3

2

2

1

8

1.333333


Duncan

11

2

4

4

2

9

0.818182




Bonner

2

0

2

0

0

0

0


Splitter

8

2

4

1

1

6

0.75




Duncan

3

0

2

0

1

0

0


Ginobili

25

14

7

5

3

34

1.36













Baynes

4

0

1

1

2

1

0.25




Total

35

12

13

7

7

31

0.885714


Parker

3

0

1

1

1

2

0.666667













Diaw

14

5

4

5

1

16

1.142857













Bonner

5

0

5

1

0

0

0













Ayres

3

0

3

0

0

0

0













Joseph

1

0

0

1

0

2

2













Pop

0.5

0

0

1

0

1

2

































Total

159.5

58

64

29

20

154

0.965517























Note: I changed Durant’s FT of Pop’s tech to count as .5 poss. instead of a 1.



Westbrook





















Game 6

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP


Series

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP




Leonard

12

3

3

4

2

14

1.166667


Leonard

30

9

10

8

5

30

1




Green

11

3

6

1

1

8

0.727273


Green

39

13

19

3

4

32

0.820513




Belinelli

1

0

1

0

0

0

0


Parker

23

6

13

3

1

19

0.826087




Mills

4

0

2

0

2

0

0


Duncan

13

3

4

5

1

13

1




Duncan

4

1

1

1

1

4

1


Splitter

8

2

3

1

2

5

0.625




Splitter

2

0

0

1

1

2

1


Diaw

9

3

4

1

1

9

1




Diaw

2

1

1

0

0

2

1


Ginobili

22

6

5

7

6

23

1.045455




Ginobili

3

0

1

2

0

4

1.333333


Baynes

3

0

1

2

0

4

1.333333




Bonner

0

0

0

1

0

0

N/A


Mills

9

2

4

1

2

7

0.777778













Belinelli

5

1

3

1

0

4

0.8




Total

39

8

15

10

7

34

0.871795


Bonner

2

1

1

1

0

2

1













Joseph

9

4

3

3

2

9

1













Ayres

3

1

1

1

0

4

1.333333

































Total

175

51

71

37

24

161

0.92







Jackson





















Game 6

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP


Series

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP




Leonard

1

1

0

0

0

2

2


Green

15

4

6

0

5

9

0.6




Green

3

1

0

0

2

3

1


Parker

18

9

7

0

2

22

1.222222




Parker

4

2

2

0

0

5

1.25


Belinelli

6

4

1

0

1

9

1.5




Mills

2

0

1

0

1

0

0


Mills

6

1

2

1

3

2

0.333333




Duncan

3

0

3

0

0

0

0


Duncan

9

3

4

0

1

6

0.666667




Diaw

4

2

2

0

0

4

1


Diaw

7

3

4

0

0

6

0.857143




Ginobili

1

1

0

0

0

2

2


Ginobili

6

4

1

1

1

8

1.333333




Bonner

1

0

0

0

0

2

2


Splitter

1

1

3

0

0

0

0




Joseph

1

1

0

0

0

3

3


Leonard

3

1

1

1

0

4

1.333333













Joseph

2

1

1

0

0

3

1.5




Total

20

8

8

0

3

21

1.05


Bonner

1

0

0

0

0

2

2

































Total

74

31

30

3

13

71

0.959459























Note: I had missed a point on Jackson’s total tally. This is because I had accidently put down that Duncan had given up five points when really gave up six.



Ibaka





















Game 6

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP


Series

Possessions

Makes

Misses

Fouls

Turnover

Points

PPP




Green

2

0

1

1

1

0

0


Parker

1

1

0

0

0

2

2




Mills

2

0

0

2

0

3

1.5


Bonner

9

2

6

1

0

5

0.555556




Duncan

1

0

0

1

0

2

2


Splitter

11

6

4

1

0

14

1.272727




Diaw

3

2

1

0

0

5

1.666667


Diaw

11

6

3

1

1

14

1.272727




Bonner

5

2

3

0

0

4

0.8


Belinelli

2

1

1

0

0

2

1




Joseph

1

1

0

0

0

2

2


Green

4

1

1

1

2

2

0.5













Joseph

2

1

0

1

0

2

1




Total

14

5

5

4

1

16

1.142857


Duncan

3

0

2

1

0

2

0.666667













Mills

2

0

0

2

0

3

1.5

































Total

45

18

17

8

3

46

1.022222
























General Takeaways:

I was incorrect in assuming OKC had become reluctant to go at Green after Game Five. The Thunder thought they had a huge mismatch with Westbrook or Durant being checked by Danny, and they went after him constantly. They weren’t alone in this feeling, as Kerr, Miller and others like Coach Nick at B-Ball Breakdown seemed to agree. But damn, did that NOT work out for them. Really, the Thunder couldn’t find any weaknesses in the Spurs defense they could exploit with match-ups. Even well-known sieves like Beli and Mills held up strong with the aid of rotating help-defenders. For a team like OKC that relies so much on individual scoring, they simply weren’t able to win enough battles. These numbers are truly abysmal for star players, especially considering that the Spurs rarely committed their whole defense to stopping them individually. Lock n Lock (my tentative nickname for the Green/Leonard defensive duo) gives the Spurs such an immense defensive advantage over the rest of the NBA that it’s not even fair.

It can’t really be overstated how much the fatigue affected Durant and Westbrook. They faded down the stretch offensively in each of the final three games of the series. The Spurs did a great job in making them work for their points, forcing them to run around multiple screens and constantly try to push the pace. The Spurs have the horses to run with anyone, and unlike most teams, they have quite a few in the stable. I said before the series that the Spurs matched up extremely well with OKC and that the Thunder would have to have a talent explosion to win. They got that explosion for their first six-and-a-half quarters in OKC, but after that, they succumbed to Xs and O’s.


There’s really not much more to say about the game. OKC’s Big Four couldn’t hold on to the ball giving the ball up 16 TIMES among themselves. (Green forced eight turnovers, Leonard five and Mills three.) The Spurs closed out hard on six attempts, soft on three, and didn’t close at all on one. I intend to get into all that in a later thread. On that topic, I will be making at least one more post about these numbers. I intend to do a little series round-up that will hopefully add a little more depth to these game-by-game analyses. Be sure to check back in this thread in a couple of days if that interests any of you.

[Malik Hairston]

Just as I suspected, tbh, Danny Green really had one of the best defensive performances in franchise history..it's a shame that it won't be discussed by anybody outside of this forum:lol..

[spurraider21]

thanks for this series Chinook. you the man :tu

[ElNono]

thanks for the hard work Chinook :tu

[Robz4000]

Good work Chinook

[gilmor]

Very interesting read.. Thanks for the effort!

I thought that strip by Kawhi on Westbrook drive already deserve the nick Lock.. :)

[Chinook]

Just as I suspected, tbh, Danny Green really had one of the best defensive performances in franchise history..it's a shame that it won't be discussed by anybody outside of this forum:lol..

Hell, even on this forum. Green threads sink on the front page like Boris Diaw in a hot air balloon.

[apalisoc_9]

Leonard did a better job on westbrook than durant..Kinda surprising imo since his main weakness has always been fast guards.

I made a danny green thread a couple days ago that lasted 5 minutes in the front page..:lol

[Spursfanfromafar]

I waited for the whole series to get over before complimenting Chinook. I suspected that much of his analysis would suffer from the small sample size problem and thats why I didnt' see it necessary to take home the analysis. But over 6 games, these numbers hang well and point to a pattern -

a) Green & Leonard are indeed, as Chinook rightly points out, a perimeter terror for the opposing team.
b) Leonard makes the spectacular plays - the strip here, the block there, the reach there and the quick show of feet. But Green does the needful more. It is corroborated by advanced stats, where Green has the greater defensive RAPM numbers than Leonard, whose numbers are quite good too. It is also the case that Leonard is the designated defender and has to *always* take on the best offensive player of the opposing team. That way, one could call it a tie for Leonard and Green. Having said that, Green is such an unacknowledged and great defender, coming out of nowhere on his own.
c) Diaw is clearly the best Swiss army knife in the NBA. He will have his hands full when he takes on Lebron for limited minutes in the Finals.

[Chinook]

All right. I thought it was time to close my discussion of this series with a wrap-up post.

Here are the final numbers for Spurs defenders against OKC's Big Four (feel free to point out any calculation errors, though I don't think any will be too egregious):




Series
Possessions
Makes
Misses
Fouls
Turnover
Points
PPP


Leonard
78
30
29
12
10
80
1.025641


Green
94
32
41
9
16
76
0.808511


Parker
45
16
21
4
4
45
1


Duncan
36
8
14
10
4
30
0.833333


Splitter
31
11
14
3
3
25
0.806452


Diaw
41
17
15
7
7
45
1.097561


Ginobili
53
24
13
13
10
65
1.226415


Baynes
7
0
2
3
2
5
0.714286


Mills
17
3
6
4
5
12
0.705882


Belinelli
17
7
7
2
1
19
1.117647


Bonner
17
4
12
3
0
9
0.529412


Joseph
14
6
4
6
2
14
1


Ayres
6
1
4
1
0
4
0.666667


Pop
0.5
0
0
1
0
1
2












Total
456.5
159
182
78
64
430
0.94195






Thoughts:


It makes sense that Kawhi, Danny and Manu would lead the team in defensive possessions used, as they were the primary defenders for Durant and Westbrook. Obviously, Green was awesome in his assignments. Leonard was good as well, and he should get some extra credit for his ball-denial. However, I should note that both Green and Leonard checked the Durant/Westbrook duo the same number of times (75), so it’s not like Kawhi prevented significantly more possessions relative to his wingman.

I’m not sure that the sample sizes for the other guards (except Parker) are large enough to get make claims about with any confidence. It is also worth noting that the other guards defended OKC’s “others” more than they defended the Big Four. I didn’t keep tabs on OKC’s bench, but I do remember Fisher causing Mills problems in Game One and Butler scoring efficiently on Diaw in Game Two. Still, nice enough jobs on their parts.

Each big gave strong help when put in that assignment. Most of the negative numbers come from situations in which they had to switch onto OKC’s smalls. Diaw in particular suffered from that. Bonner was actually great, defensively, even though his sample size was too small to prove that. I said this before, but I feel Ibaka’s inability to score on Bonner played as big of a role in getting Serge off his game than Bonner pulling Ibaka out on the paint.

Finally, Pop was clearly the worst Spurs on the court defensively. How do you give up a point in a half possession? I mean, most teams haven’t even gotten through their play by that time. I hope we don’t see Pop come off the bench during the Finals.


Three-Point Defense


This was a subplot I paid attention to for the WCF. I stopped posting the chart after Game One, but I kept track of the numbers.



Series










Result
Three
Two
Foul
Miss
Pass
Total



Hard
10
3
0
26
4
43



Soft
4
4
6
7
1
22



Stunt
1
0
0
0
0
1



None
4
0
0
2
0
6




(In case anyone is wonder, the Spurs jumped on all but two hard-closes while jumping on three soft-closes.)

As you can see, the Spurs are a hard-closing team, and they do so because it is a very successful strategy. There are a lot more intricacies to this than I am listing, obviously, and during the summer, I intend to get more into various strategies. We’ll see how that goes. For now, this was a fun little exercise.


Thanks for reading guys. I am happy that I was able to finish out this series. Now it’s time to create the template for the next series.

[ElNono]

Thanks again Chinook... I read the whole thing... :tu

[SpurPadre]

Great read, Chinook. Should've read this earlier but pretty insightful stuff.

[Brazil]

great stuff tbh

nice btw to show by the number the Parker effect. Globally Parker don't play defense during RS except some marquee games against elite PGs but he had always stepped on the D end during the POs. He is surely not a one on one defender but he is one the best at funeling opponent PGs inside where Spurs bigs are waiting.

Also we can notice that second string PGs are having some success against him once in a while, it is just the result of Parker letting them a bit of space and make them take jumpers. I prefer globally a guy like Jackson taking JS rather than Durant.

[DesignatedT]

Decision to play Bonner that series looks pretty damn good all things considered. Changed the series tbh.

[heyheymymy]

great analysis thanks!

[timtonymanu]

Great work, Chinook.

Looking forward to your analysis on the Finals.

[Splits]

Damn, those hard vs. soft closeout numbers are devastating. Amazing that out of 43 hard closes not ONCE was there a foul called. 60% misses vs 32% misses with a large enough sample size to prove that those hard closes are indeed intended/coached and not "instinct" from the player.

I would like to see in your hard/soft table the point per attempt. My rough calculation, assuming all FTs were made and the passes don't count, is .84 pts/hard vs 1.2-1.7/soft depending on if those fouls resulted in 3 shots or an and-1.

Great work, Chinook. Look forward to more in the Finals.

[ABC]

Durant 0 for 5 and Ibaka 2 for 8 against Bonner :wow

Thanks Chinook!