drought might be over this winter... el nino

[InRareForm]

http://m.livescience.com/45785-el-nino-global-weather-impacts.html?cmpid=514627_20140521_24375004

[The Gemini Method]

Awesome that it may stop the drought out here/Sucks because then the drivers out here become retards and start crashing into you because they can't drive correctly. But then again, I'll take my chances with the driver if it means more water for us.

[xmas1997]

Good to hear, but the only thing that will really help is a few hurricanes hitting south central Texas like around the Corpus Christi area. Medina Lake is a creek right now.

[DPG21920]

Well, hopefully these storms don't cause catastrophic damage like recent hurricanes.

[xmas1997]

Well, hopefully these storms don't cause catastrophic damage like recent hurricanes.

I agree naturally.

[xmas1997]

They expect a bunch of hurricanes this season, in fact there already is one in the Atlantic.

[SnakeBoy]

Good to hear, but the only thing that will really help is a few hurricanes hitting south central Texas like around the Corpus Christi area. Medina Lake is a creek right now.

Usually an El Nino will reduce the chances of hurricanes in the gulf. A strong El Nino event can deliver a huge amount of rain over a period of time though, that's what finally broke the 1950's drought.

[TE]

It would be good if south texas got more rain. We're burning up in this mothafucka.

[boutons_deux]

They expect a bunch of hurricanes this season, in fact there already is one in the Atlantic.

last week they said they expect an avg or below avg season for hurricanes, with only 2 being major, but their forecasting record the last couple of years badly overshot the eventual number of hurricanes.

Therefor AWG is world-wide hoax by 97% of scientists :)

[jeebus]

I wonder how many people are bitching about the rain, or bitched about it yesterday. "Omg it's raining and we can't have bbq." or "Local weather guy, can you make it stop raining? I'm driving from point A to point B and water is scary."

[leemajors]

I wonder how many people are bitching about the rain, or bitched about it yesterday. "Omg it's raining and we can't have bbq." or "Local weather guy, can you make it stop raining? I'm driving from point A to point B and water is scary."

nah, my garden needed that shit

[Wild Cobra]

I've been rusting. We still have wet weather here.

[xmas1997]

Usually an El Nino will reduce the chances of hurricanes in the gulf. A strong El Nino event can deliver a huge amount of rain over a period of time though, that's what finally broke the 1950's drought.

So is it El Niño or La Niña that produces the hurricane season?

[Wild Cobra]

So is it El Niño or La Niña that produces the hurricane season?
Those are Pacific ocean cycles, theorized to be driven by temperature and wind. The Atlantic has it's own, separate pattern, theorized to be primarily influenced by atmospheric pressure.

[xmas1997]

Those are Pacific ocean cycles, theorized to be driven by temperature and wind. The Atlantic has it's own, separate pattern, theorized to be primarily influenced by atmospheric pressure.

Then it is the atmospheric pressure in the Atlantic that determines a big or small hurricane season?

[Wild Cobra]

Then it is the atmospheric pressure in the Atlantic that determines a big or small hurricane season?
Probably. The AMO center varies in the northeast Atlantic. I really haven't studied the science behind it, but I wouldn't blame CO2 for either. The PDO and AMO have been occurring long before we added CO2 to the atmosphere.

[SnakeBoy]

So is it El Niño or La Niña that produces the hurricane season?

It's not that they produce the hurricane season or necessarily dictate how many there will be but they do influence where hurricanes might go. As you can see here an El Nino pattern will tend to keep hurricanes away from the Texas coast but it brings pacific storm systems straight to us...

http://schoolworkhelper.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/La-Nina-El-Nino.jpg

[xmas1997]

It's not that they produce the hurricane season or necessarily dictate how many there will be but they do influence where hurricanes might go. As you can see here an El Nino pattern will tend to keep hurricanes away from the Texas coast but it brings pacific storm systems straight to us...

http://schoolworkhelper.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/La-Nina-El-Nino.jpg

Wow, this is very interesting.
Thanks, guys.

[SnakeBoy]

Medina Lake is a creek right now.

Medina is up 5' from the recent rains. Only 87 feet to go :lol.

[JudynTX]

Medina is up 5' from the recent rains. Only 87 feet to go :lol.

Baby steps. More rain coming right now.

[jeebus]

nah, my garden needed that shit
Yup. Everyone's needed it. It's just facebook becomes saturated with fuckfaces complaining about the rain, more so than the daily average.

[JudynTX]

This also means the mosquito's will be bad this summer. :(

[xmas1997]

This also means the mosquito's will be bad this summer. :(

I just heard that S.A. and the aquifer gained 3 feet.
But we are still in stage 3, it was not even nearly enough, that we need ten times what we got this go around.

[SnakeBoy]

I just heard that S.A. and the aquifer gained 3 feet.
But we are still in stage 3, it was not even nearly enough, that we need ten times what we got this go around.

The soil soaked up most of the rain. Usually with 5" of rain my pasture looks like a pond but the soil was so dry there wasn't any standing water. If we get more rain you'll see bigger impacts on the aquifers now that the soil is saturated. But yeah we got a long way to go to get back to normal.

[MannyIsGod]

El Nino events don't affect the direction of storms but they increase wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. This can prevent tropical cyclone formation as the upper air dynamics are just as important as oceanic heat content - if not more so. This doesn't mean that any particular area won't get hit by a tropical cyclone or that we can't see a very strong hurricane or 3 this season. This simply means the environment will not be as favorable as it could be otherwise. While the patterns in the images above are correct, they are for jet stream pattern winter months and not for hurricane season. You're not going to get the jet stream dropping down into south Texas during hurricane season very often at all, much less stay there. Also, this is only for the Atlantic basin. In the East Pacific, it can actually encourage more hurricane formation (which in turn could lead to moisture into the southwest which could help with the droughts as well).

El Nino will likely help with the droughts in certain regions of the country such as the southern half of Texas, and the four corners region. In California it may or it may not as the state receives benefits in different regions from both sides of the oscillation.