R.C. Buford is a Genius

[YamaSama]

A few days ago I suggested that the Spurs should consider trading Nazr now while his trade value is high IF the Spurs feel that they will be unable to resign him next summer. But after doing a little research, I am now almost postive that we will have incredible leverage next summer to resign Nazr. Here's why:
I checked out the free-agent crop for next summer, and it was surprising to say the least. Unlike the summer when the Spurs were forced to decide between Kandi Man, Rasho, and Brad Miller, the summer of '06 will have one of the deepest crops of big men ever to hit the market.
Here's a list:
Yao Ming (R)
Ben Wallace
Amare Stoudemire (R)
Nene (R)
Kelvin Cato
Chris Wilcox (R)
Michael Olowakandi
Drew Gooden
Tony Battie
Lorenzen Wright
Alonzo Mourning
Joel Przybilla
Greg Ostertag
Jarron Collins
Antonio Davis
Aaron Williams
Scot Pollard
Curtis Borchardt
Jason Collier
Melvin Ely
Francisco Elson
Jake Voskuhl
DJ Mbenga
Other Frontcourt players: Al Harrington, Keith Van Horn, Tim Thomas

I know this isn't the most impressive list in the world, but any list of centers in the league today is pretty unimpressive. All in all, this represents a lot of the centers in the league today. This gives the Spurs bargaining leverage - that is, we won't be forced into a situation where we have to offer Nazr a huge contract or else risk the possibility of coming out of free agency without a replacement. Of course, one team could offer a scrub a huge contract after which the other teams might feel obligated to follow suit, but my feeling is that the Spurs could find a good deal out of this group somewhere.
BUT HERE'S THE REALLY GREAT PART: Looking at the other teams' cap situations for next summer, the only two teams that really dump a lot of salary are New York and Dallas. And even after their salary dumps, they're still both way over the cap (not to mention that Nazr would never resign with New York). This means that there won't be any teams (barring unforeseen trades) that will suddenly have lots of cash to throw at someone like Nazr. The only other teams we will be competing with are the other teams who lost their bigmen and the yearly low-spenders (i.e. Bobcats, Clippers, Hawks) who never seem to get any free agents anyway.
And if you don't believe me when I say that next summer is the summer of the big man, consider the top non-bigman free agents available: Jason Terry, Mike Dunleavy, Bobby Jackson, Sam Cassell, Bonzi Wells, Matt Harpring, Caron Butler. Impressive group, huh?
R.C. Buford couldn't have orchestrated this any more beautifully. The Spurs have the bargaining leverage to come out of free agency with Nazr or perhaps another big man at a very reasonable price. Well done, R.C.

[TDMVPDPOY]

Only thing i can tell you is that "Oyster" will be paid more than his market value

[Mr. Body]

Well done analysis.

[coz]

very well done, thanks for the insight.

[SpursWoman]

Excellent job....thanks! :elephant

[picnroll]

On the bad news side the plethora of mediocre bigs makes dumping Rasho more difficult.

[Solid D]

Good list and thoughts...however, if the Spurs win the NBA title again with Nazr starting at Center...his 2 rings add to his market value.

[drivanroca]

Genius!!!

[Supergirl]

If things don't work out with both Nazr and Rasho, I'd love to see the Spurs make a run at Nene.

[Isiah Thomas]

We'll see who the genius is when Malik Rose avgs 20-15 this year.

[drivanroca]

Isiah Genius?

[SWC Bonfire]

That was another good research project done by a member of this forum.

If so many Spurstalkers can do it, why does it seem like some of the front offices across the league can't?

[drivanroca]

If so many Spurstalkers can do it, why does it seem like some of the front offices across the league can't?

Nice! :king

[Horry For 3!]

Nazr for Amare :lol

[Horry For 3!]

I'd take either Amare or Ben.

[Bruno]

Another good analysis on the same subject made by Mark In Austin :


I just did some quick research and came up with the following:

Looking ahead to next summer and barring a trade for an expiring contract that brings another team far enough under the cap to offer a contract, there will be up to nine teams that could offer Nazr more money next summer than the Spurs can offer in an extension this summer.

They are:

Houston: IF Yao bolts to LA, they could be 10-12 million under the cap.

New Orleans: Magliore would be in the last year of his deal; if they don't want to re-sign him they'll need a starting center and will have a crapload of cash - about 20 million - under the cap. Given how things are going in New Orleans though, there might not even be a team by next summer.

Denver: Could be 10 million under the cap. They already have Camby and Martin, but might be players if Camby is injured again. I think they'll focus on the 2 first even if they pick up Finley this offseason after Dallas waives him for tax amnesty.

Minny: Could be 8-10 million under the cap depending on what they do with Cassell and Sprewell. (Does anybody honestly think they'll be back though?) They'll need a starting center; but unless McCants really takes off they'll probably be looking for backcourt help first.

Seattle: Could have about 10 million in capspace depending on what happens the rest of their summer and whose options they pick up next summer. Need a center badly. Would Schultz pay big money?

Atlanta: If they get Curry this summer, they probably wouldn't be too interested. If they pass on Curry or Chicago matches the offer, they'll have well over thirty million in capspace to throw around. Would they bring back Nazr for a second tour? After playing for a winning and popular club would Nazr want to go to the worst team in one of the worst sports towns in the league? Usually, money trumps issues like this, but Atlanta is in such shitty shape right now even a non-homer can see how that might come into play.

Charlotte: Will have plenty of caproom that they've been very patient about spending - is next summer the summer they decide to go "all in"? They could realistically offer two players max contracts and still have enough left over to sign Nazr to a larger deal than what the Spurs can offer in an extension this summer.

LA Clippers: Could have 10 million under the cap, but Sterling historically has only paid or offered big money for better players (Brand, Kobe, etc). Odds are he'll continue to depend on the draft for his center. He is spending 20 million on a practice pacility this summer though, so I guess anything is possible.

Chicago: The Bulls could be the biggest threat. If things go as expected this summer (sign Chandler, let Curry walk), they could be 25 million under the cap next summer. :wow Of course, they'll have to carefully weigh that against the long-term costs of retaining Heinrich, Gordon, Nocioni, Deng, and Duhon. But none of those guys are centers, and neither is Chandler, really. Would be would a Chandler-Mohammed frontcourt have enough offensive punch? Possibly. Chicago can make the most compelling pitch: Come join a young, talented, hungry, and still improving playoff team with great fan support in one of the best cities in the country - your home town - and we'll pay you plenty of $$$.
__________________________________________________ _____

After surveying what the landscape will probably look like next summer, I would be very, very surprised if Nazr signs an extension this year. San Antonio might still be his first choice; but the only way to get more than 37 million and change from the Spurs will be to wait, sign an offer sheet with somebody else, and see if the Spurs match.

The question becomes what is the Spurs upper limit? Basically taking Rasho's salary slot and extending it by one year would give you a five year deal at about 40 million. Not much more than the extension this summer would be. It probably boils down to how the Spurs' overseas talent is developing/playing:

If Mahinmi continues to develop as they hope he does, if Karulov starts to blossom, or if Javtokas' recovery doesn't plateau but contines to progress the Spurs might pass on Mohammed and focus a big contract on a Bowen replacement since they could sign their overseas bigmen to a much cheaper deal. On the other hand, if Sanikidze develops into a better NBA talent than any of the bigs, then perhaps they spend the money on Nazr.

What we know for sure is that Holt has been quoted in the past as not being willing to cross into luxury tax territory. While the new CBA might soften his stance somewhat, realistically I don't see the Spurs going much past it.

With current committments, team payroll over the next three years will be between 60 and 62 million. (This assumes Parker's salary over the first three years of his 6 yr. 66 million extension will pay $8.5M, 9.5M, 10.5M; that Oberto's deal is 2.5M, 2.5M, 2.5M; and that Horry's deal is 5M, 5.5M, 6M. AND that's before using any more of the MLE, the LLE, or re-signing Devin.

I think the most likely scenario will be that the Spurs trade Rasho for a young swingman still in a rookie deal - Childress comes to mind - and spend this year deciding:

A) if they want to extend Childress / go after another swing player for a long term deal and count on inexpensive help up front, or

B) Extend Nazr and count on inexpensive help on the perimeter.

I just don't see the Spurs payroll going much past $60 million.

[Mark in Austin]

Two things immediately come to mind that have changed since I wrote that:

1. Horry's deal has been reported as less than the numbers I assumed.

2. Apparently Rasho for Childress wasn't the no-brainer for the Hawks a lot of us thought (hoped) it would be.

[BillsCarnage]

I'd take either Amare or Ben.

Amare's extension is on the table, so he'll be wrapped up within a few weeks. I'd be surprised if Big Ben makes it to unrestricted.

[Money316]

R.C., errrrr I mean YamaSama ... pat yourself on the back! Nice ....
:fro :fro :fro

[50 cent]

Bills Carnage, your sig is as gay as they come. WTF is that all about?

[YamaSama]

Thanks y'all!

[SequSpur]

RC is Pops waterboy.

[Trainwreck2100]

Yao Ming (R)
Ben Wallace
Amare Stoudemire (R)
Nene (R)

three of the top four are restricted though (maybe even ben)

hawks are always around to offer max (or close too ) deals

Amare should be extended before the end of the season, if not the Suns are fools.

[Dex]

Yeah, now that JJ is all but out the door in Phoenix, it's pretty certain that the Suns will have the money to hold on to Amare. And if they manage to screw that up, well...

Let's just say they better get used to that curse out there in the desert.