So what odds do you give the Spurs to win the series?

[baseline bum]

Now 0-6 against Ibaka this year. Nevertheless, I'll still give the Spurs a 40% shot to survive this series, due to homecourt.

[Floyd Pacquiao]

30%, I just dont think our euro ball can beat their nigga ball, need a key injury

[baseline bum]

???

[Oh, Gee!!]

66

[HemisfairArena]

0%

[thekingrobert]

With home field I like their odds, role players seemed to have sucked on the road so I'm guessing this goes 7

[024]

50%. Got to watch that finals game 6 tape over and over until their balls grow back.

[BillMc]

55%

[peacemaker885]

Hoping we can make it at 7.

[r0drig0lac]

0% and it is not even funny

[Uriel]

We don't even have to win in OKC. Just all our home games.

[baseline bum]

We don't even have to win in OKC. Just all our home games.

So what odds are those?

[Russ]

32% (exactly).

[jARS mEsH sEt]

Probably like 60%.

[Malik Hairston]

I'd say 40%..HCA + assuming refs relax a little in San Antonio + assuming the Spurs players are embarrassed after this game..

[Russ]

32% (exactly).

Recalculating . . .

Game 5 -- 50%

Game 6 -- 0%

Game 7 -- 50%

= 25% to win the series (exactly).

[DJR210]

I'll give you my odds when the ref assignments are released Thursday morning.

[baseline bum]

Recalculating . . .

Game 5 -- 50%

Game 6 -- 0%

Game 7 -- 50%

= 25% to win the series (exactly).

Those random variables aren't independent tbh

[InRareForm]

Vegas will have spurs as slight favorites. They know what they are talking about. So 55%

[jARS mEsH sEt]

I'll give you my odds when the ref assignments are released Thursday morning.

Yeah that's actually important information. Any games reffed by Tony Brothers = 0% chance for Spurs to win.

[ElNono]

We're winning the next 2... chill

[jag]

All these people giving percentages...those aren't odds, thats probability.


That being said. I give them 0% odds

[DJR210]

Yeah that's actually important information. Any games reffed by Tony Brothers = 0% chance for Spurs to win.

The NBA hasn't sent him yet, I fully expect Brothers next game

[Mugen]

Sounds about right. I'd say 40-45% chance.

[LongtimeSpursFan]

85 percent. Next two out of three at home. Brooks playing Westbrook and Durant high minutes in a blow out win. Spurs reserves getting their confidence so contribute rest of series. Lose the battle but win the war.

[spurtech09]

We're winning the next 2... chillwell I agree the spurs will win at home

[Baam]

1%, the moral victory doesn't mean shit, OKc is just made to crush this team...

[703 Spurz]

If the Spurs win Game 5 the chance is good. If they lost at home to the Thunder it's over. Seems pretty simple.

[Darius Bieber]

0%

[Russ]

Those random variables aren't independent tbh

I wish I knew what the fuck you're talking about.

[TE]

Yeah, 10%

[313]

We're winning the next 2... chill

[Cry Havoc]

60% chance to win the series. They haven't beaten us at home yet.

[KaiRMD1]

Spurs gotta get back to playing Spurs ball. These last two games, Spurs weren't playing the same as the first two (obviously because they lost)

[trypldubl]

We're winning the next 2... chill

This

[Budkin]

70%

[dg7md]

50-50. Anybody can take it now. Game 5 winner wins the series.

[xellos88330]

I still think that the Spurs will pull off this series. The key is the bench play. The bench crew stepped up and almost got the Spurs right back in it. I say that Joseph needs to take Marcos minutes and some of Mills. Mills only shoots jumpers. Diaw needs to start and Baynes be the first big off the bench.

[spurtech09]

If the Spurs win Game 5 the chance is good. If they lost at home to the Thunder it's over. Seems pretty simple.agree....

[MANUNG-Ginobili]

69

[Baam]

We're back to square one with OKc having the perfect rotation they don't need to change one bit and all the momentum, if you think the Spurs chances are above 50% I dunno what you're smoking...

[Skull-1]

Zero.

[Russ]

60% chance to win the series. They haven't beaten us at home yet.

In the regular season (w/Ibaka) OKC has won two in a row in SA.

In the playoffs (w/Ibaka) OKC won the last one (Game 5 in '12) in SA.

[slick'81]

Wait till after game 5 then I'll answer

[DapDaGenius]

50%. Got to watch that finals game 6 tape over and over until their balls grow back.

Or just watch the last two games.

[Jenks]

50-50. Anybody can take it now. Game 5 winner wins the series.
^

[spurtech09]

spurs will win in game 7.....that's what home court advantage is for......spurs are not going to lose 3 in a row

[oski1000]

I still think that the Spurs will pull off this series. The key is the bench play. The bench crew stepped up and almost got the Spurs right back in it. I say that Joseph needs to take Marcos minutes and some of Mills. Mills only shoots jumpers. Diaw needs to start and Baynes be the first big off the bench.

Agree :lobt2:

[baseline bum]

Damn I really think the Spurs needed this game to have a good shot at taking the series :pctoss

[$pursDynasty]

50-50 I am praying the guts and intensity of the 3rd string, better shooting for our others and worse for their's and maybe Reggie's ankle acting up will give us game 5 and then it's needed one win with 2 games to go. in those classic Lakers Celtics series, game 5 was always the one to watch. the playoffs don't start till someone loses at home, I pray they never begin, lol, because we have hca.

[TheGoldStandard]

5%

[Malik Hairston]

I don't think you can say it's above 60% after seeing the past 2 games and knowing the post-prime Duncan Spurs' history, tbh:lol..

Silver lining is Westbrook shooting well for the first time in the series, as he'll continue chucking next game..

[timtonymanu]

Yeah, 40% is about right. The next 2/3 are at home, but everything else seems to be in OKC's advantage.

[hater]

53% tbh. I had Spurs in 7 with a healthy Ibaka so no reason to change now. I did say its a toss up seies with Spurs slight edge due to home court.

no suprises here so far. :tu

[DubMcDub]

60-65%. HCA is a big, big deal.

[Spur|n|Austin]

45% chance to win the series imo

[gameFACE]

50%. That's about all you can predict with a tied series. Although the Ibaka-less wins could bring the percentage down I'll stick with it.

[therealtruth]

Damn I really think the Spurs needed this game to have a good shot at taking the series :pctoss

CIA Pop knows what he's doing. Spotting OKC 2 games will allow the Spurs to rest enough to finish them off. May as well had the starters rest in SA and not bother with the trip.

[Cry Havoc]

In the regular season (w/Ibaka) OKC has won two in a row in SA.

In the playoffs (w/Ibaka) OKC won the last one (Game 5 in '12) in SA.

Wow, you're so brilliant, I was unaware that these teams were the same as the ones that played in 2012. Thanks for the info!

[MI21]

30%

[downunder]

As an Aussie I hate to admit that if Mills, Baynes or any player on the team who played last 10 minutes of Game 4 is put on the floor by POP then the game is lost. Time for Duncan, Ginobli and Parker to earn their massive salaries - Pop knows this

[Hoops Czar]

The same odds I'd give Harlem for getting his original account back.

[TheGreatYacht]

If Daye starts... Spurs in 6, easy.

If soft ass Splitter starts, and Pop puts Belinelli on KD again... OKC in 2

[smaka]

I wish I knew what the fuck you're talking about.
:lol

[therealtruth]

The odds are actually in our favor. What's the chances they'll continue to dominate us with Ibaka in the lineup? They have to lose a game at some point.

[benstanfield]

Exactly the same odds I give to Parker having a 30pt game against Ibaka in the paint.

[crc21209]

60-65%. Not based off the past 2 games, but because it's 2-2, which makes it a 50-50 tossup series. However, I give the Spurs the extra 10-15% because of homecourt advantage. The Thunder still need to win one in SA. And for those who are saying they won the 2 regular season games in SA with Ibaka, guess what? Regular season means shit now. Kawhi missed both games at home against the Thunder. One due to a dental procedure and the other time he left early when he broke his hand..

[Horry Hipcheck]

Solid chance if they take Game 5. Chances drop to less than zero if they lose Game 5.

[justinandimcool]

i doubt anyone has accurate odds for this, since Spurs record vs Ibaka is so skewed in OKC's favor. it looks like what you would get if you calculated '96 Bulls vs '12 Bobcats based on recent history

the math I get factoring home court, beating Ibaka ONCE is 16%. beating him twice is way less than that, I don't even wanna try. whether you think those odds are reflective of what happens on the court is up to you.


that said the odds of OKC coming back even with Ibaka, after game 2, were pretty low. something's gotta give between two statistically very unlikely events.

[justinandimcool]

Spurs success in home game 5's elevates the above number of 16%, but not much above 35%. That's just for one game. Again skewed by their general overall record vs OKC w/Ibaka. I doubt chances of winning the series exceeds 15%. Again it's how much stock you put into their record vs Ibaka historically.

Fuck it, it's just numbers. Go Spurs Go tbh.

[slick'81]

If spurs win game5 %100 if they lose %0

[TheGreatYacht]

I trust Timmy, Parker, and Kawhi. That's about it... Pop can go get drunk like usual

[SnakeBoy]

Damn I really think the Spurs needed this game to have a good shot at taking the series :pctoss

Stop being a bitch...Spurs are winning this in 6.

Did you think this was going to be a sweep before the series started? If not would you rather the Spurs lose these games any other way?

[capek]

I'd still be very surprised if the Spurs lose this series. In these playoffs, except for that crazy Vince buzzer beater, when they've lost, they've lost horribly, and it's because they just didn't compete. When they've actually competed, they've destroyed their opponents. I can't believe that the team will just not compete in another game in these playoffs. In spite of these last two horrible games, I think they'll win this series in 6.

[Robz4000]

~35%. Spurs just can't beat Meth with Abaka, he literally shuts down Parker and Duncan at the same time.

[Raven]

tiago splitter 25min
diaw 20
duncan 33
danny green 40
kawhi 40
parker 35
cojo 15
manu 20 (depending on who is hot manu and parker's minutes should vary)

if that's the rotation then i call it around 100% chance to win, of course that won't be the case.

[crc21209]

I guess it's only fitting that the Spurs play in a huge Game 5 with the series tied 2-2. It's been the trend for the past 10 years or so, both good and bad.

2003- Spurs vs. Lakers in SA, Conf Semis. The missed Horry 3. Spurs went on to win the game and series in 6.

2004- Spurs vs. Lakers in SA, Conf. Semis. .4 shot. Spurs lost this game and the series in 6.

2005

Spurs vs. Sonics in SA, Conf. Semis. After leading series 2-0, the Spurs lost the next 2 and came back for a pivotal Game 5. Spurs went on to win this game led by a monster game from Manu, and won the series in 6.

Spurs vs. Pistons in DET. NBA Finals. Horry drills game winning 3 pointer. Spurs win this game and the series in 7.

2007 Spurs vs. Suns in PHX. Conf. Semis. The game after the Horry hipcheck on Nash. Spurs went down early by 16 points in the game only to rally in the 2nd half and win the game, and go on to win the series in 6.

2011- Spurs vs. Thunder in SA. WCF. We all remember this one, Spurs lead series 2-0, come back tied 2-2. Harden drills stepback 3 pointer to basically seal the win for the Thunder, Spurs lose game and series in 6.

2012- Spurs vs. Heat in SA. NBA Finals. After exchanging wins in the first 4 games, Good Manu finally made an appearance and helped the Spurs win this game to take a 3-2 series lead. Spurs lost series in 7.

[rascal]

10 % Only if there is a key injury will the Spurs win.

OK City has clearly proven to be better in this matchup when healthy.

[hsxvvd]

Called fairly 65%

But that's not going to happen.

Durant v. LeBron sells too many t-shirts and shoes.

[rascal]

60-65%. Not based off the past 2 games, but because it's 2-2, which makes it a 50-50 tossup series. However, I give the Spurs the extra 10-15% because of homecourt advantage. The Thunder still need to win one in SA. And for those who are saying they won the 2 regular season games in SA with Ibaka, guess what? Regular season means shit now. Kawhi missed both games at home against the Thunder. One due to a dental procedure and the other time he left early when he broke his hand..

HCA is no advantage when one team is clearly better than the other team in this matchup.

[AaronY]

20% maybe just on the chance okc gets another injury. Theyd probably be going to their finals for the third year in a row if Westbrook played in the playoffs last year

[Uriel]

60% for the series. I think we actually have a great shot at winning Game 5. Keep in mind:

1. Ibaka's injury is only going to get worse the more he plays on it.
2. Brooks expended his starters' energy by leaving them on the floor, while our starters rested the whole 4th while picking up anger and frustration from the loss.
3. Reggie Jackson may not even play Game 5. Or if he does, his impact will be severely limited.

[baseline bum]

Stop being a bitch...Spurs are winning this in 6.

Did you think this was going to be a sweep before the series started? If not would you rather the Spurs lose these games any other way?

2-12 now against the Thunder with Ibaka son. Before the series started I expected OKC in six until det nigga was out for the playoffs.

[mudyez]

I'd give them 50% right now.

OKC has the momentum but SA still has homecourt and room to improve.

[baseline bum]

60% for the series. I think we actually have a great shot at winning Game 5. Keep in mind:

1. Ibaka's injury is only going to get worse the more he plays on it.

What injury? Nigga looks pretty damn healthy.

[spurspokesman]

Vegas will have spurs as slight favorites. They know what they are talking about. So 55%

[tmtcsc]

The way the Spurs lost those two games was extremely disappointing. The silver lining (not moral victory) is that the 3rd team came in & reminded the starters to JUST FRIGGIN COMPETE. I admit, the starters looked rattled, frustrated and defeated. I think a return home and the limited minutes Pop played the starters will do wonders for Game 5.

I definitely think the Spurs will win this series but it won't happen unless they get up, wipe themselves clean and get mad.

[smaka]

Winner of game 5 wins the series. Since Spurs play at home, I'd say there is a 60% chance of winning.

[EVAY]

50-50. Anybody can take it now. Game 5 winner wins the series.

This.

[EVAY]

If we don't start rebounding, the odds are 0.

[Cowboys_Wear_Spurs]

Like I said from the out set, Game 5 will decide this series, and the Spurs should win tomorrow. Pop needs to call Alley-oop plays off the baseline, Spurs could have had like 10 last night.

Everytime Ibaka cheats, Duncan or Splitter cut to the basket and Parker or whoever, just heaves it to them for the easy basket. Also, backpick Ibaka when he roams the high paint with a Spurs guard (Manu/Beli), and have Duncan/Diaw/Splitter cut to underneath the basket for an easy basket as they will get switch onto Lamb, Fisher or whoever.

Dude, I was just watching the game last night and seeing all the flaws OKC had on defense and the Spurs weren't exploiting any of them. I hope Pop watches the film and see how easy it would be to exploit the OKC D.

[313]

tiago splitter 25min
diaw 20
duncan 33
danny green 40
kawhi 40
parker 35
cojo 15
manu 20 (depending on who is hot manu and parker's minutes should vary)

if that's the rotation then i call it around 100% chance to win, of course that won't be the case.
Needs some Baynes but I agree on everything else

[313]

Like I said from the out set, Game 5 will decide this series, and the Spurs should win tomorrow. Pop needs to call Alley-oop plays off the baseline, Spurs could have had like 10 last night.

Everytime Ibaka cheats, Duncan or Splitter cut to the basket and Parker or whoever, just heaves it to them for the easy basket. Also, backpick Ibaka when he roams the high paint with a Spurs guard (Manu/Beli), and have Duncan/Diaw/Splitter cut to underneath the basket for an easy basket as they will get switch onto Lamb, Fisher or whoever.

Dude, I was just watching the game last night and seeing all the flaws OKC had on defense and the Spurs weren't exploiting any of them. I hope Pop watches the film and see how easy it would be to exploit the OKC D.

:tu

[will_spurs]

If Brothers refs game 5 or game 7 then 0%.
If Brothers refs game 6 then 50%.

[hitmantb]

Spurs is the streakiest team in the NBA by far. See Spurs vs Mavs series.

This is because if the opponent can break down the Spurs system, they win. If they can not they can get blown out in a hurry. Spurs system at home feeding off the crowd is much harder to break down.

I would say it is 50%/50% at this point, and energy level more than anything else decides the series. Spurs was very passive/flat after the three days break, they can still recover from this although IF both teams play at peak level, Thunder is simply the most talented team in the NBA. Spurs need to play at 100% vs Thunder's 80% to win.

[urunobili]

30%

[superbigtime]

If they lose game 5 it's over. And I think they only have a 20-30% chance to win that game. They got no momentum and the team is obviously very frustrated. And probably feeling the pressure. I'm expecting SA turnovers and OKC fast break points.

[Cowboys_Wear_Spurs]

If they lose game 5 it's over. And I think they only have a 20-30% chance to win that game. They got no momentum and the team is obviously very frustrated. And probably feeling the pressure. I'm expecting SA turnovers and OKC fast break points.

This is what most said in the Dallas series. SPURS ARE AT HOME and they won't have to deal with the crowd. Spurs will be pumped for this game. Spurs have an 80% chance of winning this game. They will be treating this game like a game 7, its do or die and they will be going all out.

[Strategic]

For my money Spurs are still favored, but less than 2 to 1 odds. Vegas odds may be just the opposite.

[DMC]

The Spurs are bad for NBA business. The fact they got this far is an embarrassment to the league despite all the praise heaped upon them by others around the league and media. When the All NBA selections are released, and no Spurs are on it, it will be interesting to see the conspiracy theories regarding this series. What happens if you get a team in the Finals that doesn't have a single selection on the All NBA team? Does it invalidate the process? I don't think so, but maybe they do and don't want SA to embarrass them.

Talk amongst yourselves.

[ducks]

10 % Only if there is a key injury will the Spurs win.

OK City has clearly proven to be better in this matchup when healthy.

in the playoffs not a series tell the road team wins
spurs beat harden and imaka 2 times in 2012 that is all they have to do this year

[Jimcs50]

I'd say 51%

[Seventyniner]

Good point about Vegas. They don't let emotion cloud their collective decision, so their estimate gives a ~60% chance of a win. 4.5 is actually a big number for this situation.

[baseline bum]

Good point about Vegas. They don't let emotion cloud their collective decision, so their estimate gives a ~60% chance of a win. 4.5 is actually a big number for this situation.

What's emotional about thinking the Spurs shouldn't be favored against a team they are now 2-12 against in their last 14 games?

[Rummpd]

10%

[Seventyniner]

What's emotional about thinking the Spurs shouldn't be favored against a team they are now 2-12 against in their last 14 games?

Using a (very) short-term pattern to predict the future is guesswork at best. I guarantee you that Vegas is using a much larger sample size.

4-10 in the last 14, 8-13 in the last 21 btw.

[baseline bum]

Using a (very) short-term pattern to predict the future is guesswork at best. I guarantee you that Vegas is using a much larger sample size.

4-10 in the last 14, 8-13 in the last 21 btw.

2-12, as the team that had Durant having to guard Duncan isn't playing game 5. Vegas is just expecting home court to carry the Spurs.

[heyheymymy]

i want to say 50-50, but spurs dont have to win in okc and they have to win in SA, makes me want to give the Spurs more of an edge on okc.

but my final answer is 50-50. they blew us out about as bad as we blew them out, and the series is even. but HCA does give Spurs an edge, so it might be more like 55%

[spurs10]

I think our chances are damn good. :flag:I think we see a renewed focus and determination and we will take this. Slow down either of their stars and we can cut them up. Let Ibaka and Jackson try to beat us. Our defense in games one and two had a lot more energy on KD and the Weasel.

[AaronY]

What injury? Nigga looks pretty damn healthy.
Yeah he's just gonna get healthier the farther away he gets from it. Lol all the amateur doctors in here who keep saying that

[Uriel]

Now that the Spurs have won Game 5, their odds of winning this series improves dramatically.

I'd give the Spurs a puncher's chance of winning Game 6 in OKC, about 1/3. And should it come to that, I'd give the Spurs a good chance of winning Game 7, perhaps 2/3. Combined, that gives the Spurs a 77.8% chance of winning this series.

[Cowboys_Wear_Spurs]

This is what most said in the Dallas series. SPURS ARE AT HOME and they won't have to deal with the crowd. Spurs will be pumped for this game. Spurs have an 80% chance of winning this game. They will be treating this game like a game 7, its do or die and they will be going all out.

So what are the %'s now. Since more than 50% here had the Spurs losing this series before game 5.

[pgardn]

HCA is no advantage when one team is clearly better than the other team in this matchup.

Slam pie in face...

[superbigtime]

This is what most said in the Dallas series. SPURS ARE AT HOME and they won't have to deal with the crowd. Spurs will be pumped for this game. Spurs have an 80% chance of winning this game. They will be treating this game like a game 7, its do or die and they will be going all out.

Glad to have been wrong!

[hater]

53% tbh. I had Spurs in 7 with a healthy Ibaka so no reason to change now. I did say its a toss up seies with Spurs slight edge due to home court.

no suprises here so far. :tu

Damn
Im good y'all

[BillMc]

As of now, I'd give us about a 70% chance to win the series

[ElNono]

baseline bum is my dude, but you gotta trust this team...

[baseline bum]

baseline bum is my dude, but you gotta trust this team...

If Manu can save the series again next round I'll personally pay the coyote to bring two more of your relatives across

[ElNono]

If Manu can save the series again next round I'll personally pay the coyote to bring two more of your relatives across

Gotta enjoy being atop the west again first :toast

[baseline bum]

Gotta enjoy being atop the west again first :toast

:cry 2-6 ecstacy son :cry

Timmy treating Ibaka like was Chris Dudley :lol

[ElNono]

:cry 2-6 ecstacy son :cry

Timmy treating Ibaka like was Chris Dudley :lol

that steal by Kawhi tho :wow

[Cowboys_Wear_Spurs]

Odds 100% according to Vegas

[Spurs 4 The Win]

0%


Recalculating . . .

Game 5 -- 50%

Game 6 -- 0%

Game 7 -- 50%

= 25% to win the series (exactly).


1%, the moral victory doesn't mean shit, OKc is just made to crush this team...


0%


Zero.


We're back to square one with OKc having the perfect rotation they don't need to change one bit and all the momentum, if you think the Spurs chances are above 50% I dunno what you're smoking...


5%


10 % Only if there is a key injury will the Spurs win.

OK City has clearly proven to be better in this matchup when healthy.


HCA is no advantage when one team is clearly better than the other team in this matchup.


10%

High quality takes, especially from our usual comedian Rascal :lol:lol:lol:lol:lol

[spurraider21]

We're winning the next 2... chill
Nonostradamus just doing nonostradamus things

[baseline bum]

baseline bum is my dude, but you gotta trust this team...


If Manu can save the series again next round I'll personally pay the coyote to bring two more of your relatives across

Uh oh

[ElNono]

Nonostradamus just doing nonostradamus things

:wakeup


Uh oh

:lmao

[baseline bum]

:lmao

Just to let you know, a pregnant one counts as two