benefactor
05-30-2014, 04:42 PM
An essential part of preparing for the 2014 NFL season is looking back at what just happened. About all I remember at this point from 2013 is the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl and Ron Rivera acting out that fan fiction I wrote about the coach who always goes for it. There’s a lot more to take away from 2013, but that’s hard to do with any sort of perspective while free agency and the draft are sucking up all the oxygen. But now that we’re past the Sturm und Drang of Johnny in Vegas and Teddy’s pro day, it’s time to take a look at the bigger picture of 2013 to understand how it will influence 2014.
That can mean only one thing … nerdy stats! There are several underlying numbers that serve a useful role in measuring how a team will play. But — and let’s repeat this all together again, because it only makes us stronger — the NFL’s 16-game season is a teeny-tiny sample, and there are myriad aspects of the game that have no predictive value for the future. (Think about how the 2012 Packers were affected by their run-in with the replacement officials.) There’s also the human factor. You know: We can be pretty sure the Giants are likely to avoid suffering the most injuries in the league next year, but if Eli Manning decides to retire and they’re stuck with Ryan Nassib, their performance is likely to be terrible anyway.
Keep reading... (http://grantland.com/features/nfl-stats-predicting-success/)
That can mean only one thing … nerdy stats! There are several underlying numbers that serve a useful role in measuring how a team will play. But — and let’s repeat this all together again, because it only makes us stronger — the NFL’s 16-game season is a teeny-tiny sample, and there are myriad aspects of the game that have no predictive value for the future. (Think about how the 2012 Packers were affected by their run-in with the replacement officials.) There’s also the human factor. You know: We can be pretty sure the Giants are likely to avoid suffering the most injuries in the league next year, but if Eli Manning decides to retire and they’re stuck with Ryan Nassib, their performance is likely to be terrible anyway.
Keep reading... (http://grantland.com/features/nfl-stats-predicting-success/)