ESPN "Expert" Picks for 2014 NBA FINALS

[Budkin]

12/18 Picking the Spurs including LeBron's personal fluffer Brian Windhorst! I don't think I've ever seen him pick against the Heat.

http://i.imgur.com/NDzUZqr.jpg

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014/matchup/_/teams/mia-sa

[Russ]

Hmmmmm . . .

Windhorst? Looks like a reverse jinx to me.

[Jimcs50]

Spurs in 5

[lmbebo]

Discount any pick that has Heat winning in Game 7. Idiots.

[Budkin]

Discount any pick that has Heat winning in Game 7. Idiots.

Seriously. Are they not paying attention to who has homecourt?

[mando6599]

Spurfect revenge would be a sweep with an average margin of victory of 17.8 points.
Danny and Diaw co-MVP's and Splitter posterizing LBJ not once but three separate times.

[Manu20]

I don't know why but I'm pretty confident the Spurs are going to win in 5, IMO Miami is going to be in for a rude awakening!

[SsKSpurs21]

12 of 18 pick Spurs. Guiterrez is a douche, i hope the Spurs shut him up!

[Halberto]

Is it just me or does it always seem like Guiterrez picks against the Spurs?

[NASpurs]

Windhorst has the most interesting pick for me.

[mando6599]

Is it just me or does it always seem like Guiterrez picks against the Spurs?

Nope, not just you that feels like that. He also picked OKC in 6, I believe. We'll prove him wrong again.

Can anybody here post SAS and Bayless's thoughts on the Finals from this AM's show?

[Budkin]

Is it just me or does it always seem like Guiterrez picks against the Spurs?

Not always but mostly. He used to write for the Miami Herald which is why he is a Heat fan boy.

[spurspokesman]

Thanks Budkin. Interesting to see the picks, though I thought more of these homers would pick the Heat

[look_at_g_shred]

I want everyone to pick against us. Tbh though, I think it shows how much everyone notices that we mean business.

[spurspokesman]

I only look to see who Marc Stein picks. He is very credible in my book

[Russ]

One major concern that most experts are not mentioning -- Wade is playing much better this year than last.

[Budkin]

One major concern that most experts are not mentioning -- Wade is playing much better this year than last.

So is Kawhi.

[Spurs_Be_Beastin']

Of course Broosard and guttierz pick against us :lol
fuck everyone of them tbh.
Spurs in 5 I've said that from the beginning of the season

[Phenomanul]

One major concern that most experts are not mentioning -- Wade is playing much better this year than last.

and so is Ginobili.

[spurspokesman]

Spurs faced way better teams. Miami hasn't faced anybody in the Leastern conference. They are in for a rude awakening.

[Budkin]

and so is Ginobili.

This tbh.

[spurs10]

:flag:

[spurraider21]

Wade looks healthier than last year, but so does Manu

[rjv]

not surprised about the picks from gutierrez and broussard. that panty waist from miami has never respected the spurs and broussard is just awful when it comes to picks. he stated that if the thunder won game 4 they would go on to take the series.

[rjv]

Wade looks healthier than last year, but so does Manu

pop has also had a year to tinker to what to do when someone goes small ball against us like miami did last year. that is why the thunder failed when they tried it. pop struggled with that adjustment last year.

[tdunk21]

Hmmmmm . . .

Windhorst? Looks like a reverse jinx to me.

Surprising...as he is a huge lebron groupie since the queen played for the cavs

[spurraider21]

http://a.espncdn.com/media/motion/2012/0429/dm_120429_nba_ps_gutierrez_spurs.jpg

[703 Spurz]

Nope, not just you that feels like that. He also picked OKC in 6, I believe. We'll prove him wrong again.

Can anybody here post SAS and Bayless's thoughts on the Finals from this AM's show?

Bayless said Spurs in 6 and Smith said Heat in 7.

[NRHector]

These are the same "experts" that call the Spurs old every year I really don't care what they say

[sananspursfan21]

Seriously had a dream that game one happened and I had to miss it. Someone told me the score and San Antonio won by 30.... It was a great nights sleep

[Cowboys_Wear_Spurs]

Discount any pick that has Heat winning in Game 7. Idiots.

There is no way the Heat win a game 7 in San Antonio.

[Uriel]

http://a.espncdn.com/media/motion/2012/0429/dm_120429_nba_ps_gutierrez_spurs.jpg
http://www.suitstv.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/suits-season-3-louis-litt-trailer.jpg

[Mugen]

Harlem already picked the Spurs in this series so it's not surprising that Windhorst did as well since he's basically the HH of ESPN tbh :lol

[BillMc]

I don't know why but I'm pretty confident the Spurs are going to win in 5, IMO Miami is going to be in for a rude awakening!

Yeah, me too. I can't justify this feeling but I most definitely have it.

[cd98]

Colin Cowherd picked the Spurs, and he said the Spurs would win quickly, i.e. 5 to 6 games.

[wildbill2u]

Spurs are on a mission. If Parker comes back 100% we should be the favorite.

[TacoCabanaFajitas]

Colin Cowherd picked the Spurs, and he said the Spurs would win quickly, i.e. 5 to 6 games.

That guy knows jackshit about basketball or football for that matter. He's the reason I stopped listening to sports talk radio last year, was almost infuriating to hear him ramble about shit and try to be funny while obviously knowing nothing about the subject he was discussing

[Two10Whitey]

Morris and Pelton!!! :lmao:lobt2:

[Budkin]

Colin Cowherd picked the Spurs, and he said the Spurs would win quickly, i.e. 5 to 6 games.

HOLY SHIT. That is almost crazier than the Windhorst pick! Colin Cowherd is a total LeBron knob gobbler.

[Malik Hairston]

Harlem already picked the Spurs in this series so it's not surprising that Windhorst did as well since he's basically the HH of ESPN tbh :lol

I'm genuinely insulted, tbh, I fucking hate Windhorst:(..

[SpurPadre]

One major concern that most experts are not mentioning -- Wade is playing much better this year than last.

On the upside, this year we don't have a fucking moron who can't defend a shoeless player.

[Chris]

Gutierrez is a Spurs hater, always has been. That smug smile he has after every take is icing on the shit cake.

[look_at_g_shred]

There is no way the Heat win a game 7 in San Antonio.
Or any home game for that matter :hat

[RandomGuy]

Seriously. Are they not paying attention to who has homecourt?

I would guess not.

I would love to see Miami's last few games at San Antonio. Wonder what their % win is at the Alamo Dome

[Mugen]

I'm genuinely insulted, tbh, I fucking hate Windhorst:(..

:lol Sorry breh, I'll retract. But I can't think of two bigger LeBron fans in the world tbh, quite literally in Windhorst's case.

[timtonymanu]

On the upside, this year we don't have a fucking moron who can't defend a shoeless player.

Idk Belinelli has been far worse than Neal in these playoffs. i hope he doesnt make the same mistake.

[Budkin]

Idk Belinelli has been far worse than Neal in these playoffs. i hope he doesnt make the same mistake.

Luckily that shoeless guy will not be on the court. I know Ray Allen hit "the shot," but Miller was killer in Game 6.

[Gervin44Silas13]

Ismael G. is a queer Heatcocksucker....I hope he gets shot up the ass with sperm infected AIDS semen!

[Sean Cagney]

12 of 18 pick Spurs. Guiterrez is a douche, i hope the Spurs shut him up!

That rat looking bastard picks the other team every series. I can't stand the sight of his face, not just because he is a Spurs hater because he looks annoying.

[Hoops Czar]

Gutierrez is a Spurs hater, always has been. That smug smile he has after every take is icing on the shit cake.


I know. Any voter that picks against the Spurs is a hater and anyone that picks them is a bandwagoner. You lose no matter who you pick. Maybe ESPN should just refrain from making any picks in a series that involves the Spurs so Spurstalk doesn't get so butthurt.

[Baseline]

Hmmmmm . . .

Windhorst? Looks like a reverse jinx to me. Doesn't Windhorst pick the team that has the best press buffett?

[Hoops Czar]

I had never noticed you before, but holy fuck you're stupid.


76 total posts? You don't notice much do you?

[jARS mEsH sEt]

I'm shocked a couple of them picked us in 5.

[Mouth is Bleeding]

It's the advanced stats guys picking Spurs in 5.

Here is an insider article from today by Pelton convincingly arguing a Spurs title:




All signs point to a Spurs title

Analyzing three decades' worth of Finals trends to anticipate winner.

Regression analysis shows one team is significantly favored heading into the NBA Finals.

The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs have reached the NBA Finals, setting up a rematch of last year's classic seven-game battle. With four days between the conclusion of the conference finals and Game 1, now comes the real fun: predicting the outcome.

Predicting the NBA Finals is somewhat different from other playoff series. First, there's more playoff data available -- three full rounds against a variety of opponents, giving a better idea of who's playing better right now. Second, because the teams have played each other just twice during the regular season, there's less head-to-head data to determine whether the matchup is good or bad.

So what has really mattered when picking the winner of past Finals? And what does that say about this year's series? Let's take a look.

Matters: Regular-Season Records

Ordinarily, statistical projections will start with point differential. But when it comes to the NBA Finals, during the past three decades, records have matched up better with results than differential.

When the two teams were separated by three games or fewer during the regular season, teams with home-court advantage have actually been more likely to get upset than win the series, going 4-5. But when they won at least six more games during the regular season, they've gone a dominant 16-2, with 1995 (Houston over Orlando) and 2006 (Miami over Dallas) the lone exceptions. That's bad news for the Heat, who finished eight games behind the Spurs in the standings.


Doesn't Matter: Head-to-Head Results

Against conference foes, there is predictive value to the regular-season series between the two teams -- especially in the opening round. That doesn't carry over to the NBA Finals. Two games simply aren't enough to tell us much about how the teams match up.

Half of the past 30 Finalists have split the season series, as Miami and San Antonio did this season. Though nine of the other 15 Finals were won by the team that swept the season series, that doesn't provide much new information because most of those teams had home-court advantage. The lower-seeded team has gone on to win the Finals just once out of the four times it swept in the regular season.

Matters: Playoff Performance

It pays to be hot going into the Finals. When the lower-seeded team had a better point differential during the first three rounds of the playoffs, adjusted for schedule, the series is nearly a toss-up -- the favorites win 57.1 percent of the time (8-6). When the team with home court also has performed better during the playoffs, however, they're a dominant 14-2 (87.5 percent), with 1998 (Chicago over Utah, when the two teams were nearly even leading up to the Finals) and 2006 (Miami over Dallas, again) the exceptions.

The Heat (plus-7.0) and Spurs (plus-8.0) had similar average margins en route to the Finals. However, San Antonio played a much more difficult schedule in the competitive West. So San Antonio's adjusted differential of plus-11.6 points per game is much better than Miami's plus-8.1 mark.

Doesn't Matter: Games Played

Because the Spurs went a full seven games in the first round, the Heat have played three fewer games in the postseason. Turns out that extra rest is not a factor in why playoff performance to date matters in the Finals. In fact, favorites who have played more games (like San Antonio) have actually tended to perform slightly better than expected, possibly because it means they've faced more challenging opposition.

Matters: Defensive Rating

Yes, defense wins championships -- as long as it is paired with a good-enough offense to get to the Finals. The team with the better defensive rating during the regular season has won 19 out of the past 30 Finals, a figure that substantially understates its importance. See, offense-first teams are more likely to have home court in the Finals. When the better defensive team also has home-court advantage, it has won 86.7 percent of the time (13-2). And better defensive teams have frequently pulled upsets without home court, going 6-9 (40 percent) in those series.

Again, the importance of defense favors the Spurs. They were the better defense in the regular season, ranking fourth in points allowed per 100 possessions; Miami finished 11th. The Heat would be the first team to win the championship while finishing outside the league's top 10 defenses since the 2001 Lakers (21st).

Unlike those Lakers, Miami hasn't yet shown the ability to turn on its defense for extended stretches during the playoffs. The Heat reached the Finals largely on the strength of their offense, which dominated the league's No. 1 (Indiana) and No. 6 (Charlotte) defenses. Miami scored 12.9 more points per 100 possessions during the East playoffs than its opponents allowed during the regular season (weighted by games played), but allowed them to score 2.8 more points per 100 possessions than usual.

By contrast, San Antonio's playoff run has been incredibly balanced. In fact, the Spurs have been slightly better on defense (plus-7.4 points per 100 possessions better than opponent averages) than offense (plus-6.9). That kind of balance is rare in the postseason. Just five teams since the ABA-NBA merger have been at least six points better than average per 100 possessions at both ends of the court.

Putting it Together

A regression that combines regular-season win differential and playoff performance leading up to the Finals -- but not defensive rating, which isn't statistically significant as part of a regression -- correctly retrodicts 27 of the past 30 Finals outcomes. Based on that, San Antonio has an 88 percent chance of winning the Finals.

The good news for Miami? As you might guess from going through the indicators, the biggest upset in modern Finals history was pulled off by another Heat team with Dwyane Wade.

http://i58.tinypic.com/2yubzt1.png

Still, nine of the 10 teams most heavily favored entering the Finals won the series, and none of the underdogs even forced a Game 7. The 2006 Finals are also the exception to the rule when it comes to favorites who had a better point differential in both the regular season and the conference playoffs. Those teams are 11-1 in the past three decades.

Despite this overwhelming evidence, the Heat are only slight underdogs to win the series in Las Vegas. The most common line suggests the Spurs have a 57 percent chance to win. In part, the discrepancy can be traced to the popularity of Miami, as two-time defending champion. But it also surely reflects a belief we still haven't seen the best of the Heat, given Miami's tendency to play better when behind in series and in fourth quarters.

That might prove the case, because the Heat haven't yet been seriously challenged in the playoffs. But they'll have to raise their level considerably to match the way San Antonio is playing. Six times this postseason, the Spurs have beaten opponents by 20 points more than an average team in the same situation. Miami has done that only once -- the closeout Game 6 against Indiana.

If the Heat are to win their third consecutive championship, it will mean defying three decades' worth of Finals trends.



Spurs got this but it is funny that the one big outlier was Dwhistle Wade and Heat winning in 06.

[Southwest Texas Fan]

I wonder if Lebron is having nightmares of Banana hands already?

[davidbowie]

hahahaha windhorst......always liked that fat boy

[smaka]

Some of those experts probably picked Houston to win west before the season, or maybe Lakers to win it all last year.

[tmtcsc]

One major concern that most experts are not mentioning -- Wade is playing much better this year than last.

So are Manu, Leonard, Mills and Splitter.

[will_spurs]

Spurs got this but it is funny that the one big outlier was Dwhistle Wade and Heat winning in 06.

The conclusion of the article is quite clear: unless the whole series is rigged a la Miami vs Dallas, the Spurs are the clear favourite.

[Mal]

So are Manu, Leonard, Mills and Splitter.

And yet again people are forgetting about Diaw 2.0

[SupremeGuy]

Broussard and Gutierrez would choose the Heat over the Dream Team, tbh. lol

I remember last year Gutierrez picked against the Spurs like every fucking game. Not just series, but game.

[DMC]

Gutierrez is a Spurs hater, always has been. That smug smile he has after every take is icing on the shit cake.

Nah he's a beat writer for Miami. He has to pick them over everyone else he doesn't get any special treatment from them.

[T Park]

One major concern that most experts are not mentioning -- Wade is playing much better this year than last.


So is ginobili, Leonard, Patty mills, Boris Diaw.

[DMC]

What team has won b2b and lost in the Finals at an attempt for a 3peat?

I can see the Heat winning again, but I can also see the Spurs winning. I think officiating is going to play a big role, but I've not typically seen Lebron get favoritism. There's a first time for everything though. It's going to depend on how well Tony's ankle is doing.

[coachmac87]

Heat in 7? Just an unconfident guess IMO. Curious to see how they expect series to play out game by game...

Spurs in 5.

Game1-SA
Game2-SA
Game3-MIA
Game4-SA
Game5-SA

Spurs look literally impossible to beat @ home as of late.

[Horry Hipcheck]

Is it just me or does it always seem like Guiterrez picks against the Spurs?

He's a Miami homer.

[Spurs21Fan4Ever]

Nope, not just you that feels like that. He also picked OKC in 6, I believe. We'll prove him wrong again.

Can anybody here post SAS and Bayless's thoughts on the Finals from this AM's show?
I haven't read the entire thread so this may have already been answered, but I did hear Stephen A Smith say that SA has a 0% chance of beating Miami with or without Tony Parker.

[Spurs21Fan4Ever]

What team has won b2b and lost in the Finals at an attempt for a 3peat?

I can see the Heat winning again, but I can also see the Spurs winning. I think officiating is going to play a big role, but I've not typically seen Lebron get favoritism. There's a first time for everything though. It's going to depend on how well Tony's ankle is doing.
Lakers in 2011 lost after winning back to back championships, swept by the Mavs who won the title.

[DMC]

Lakers in 2011 lost after winning back to back championships, swept by the Mavs who won the title.

They didn't make it to the Finals however. That's what "lost in the Finals" means...

[pgardn]

I haven't read the entire thread so this may have already been answered, but I did hear Stephen A Smith say that SA has a 0% chance of beating Miami with or without Tony Parker.

So Smith picks Miami in 7... And the Spurs have a 0% chance...

A little help here, why not Miami in a sweep or 5 games?

[hater]

Spurs in 7 with a reasonably healthy Parker. HEAT in 5 or 6 with a hurt Parker.

[dbreiden83080]

Broussard continues to cling closely to James's nuts..

[Budkin]

Broussard continues to cling closely to James's nuts..

Broussard has never picked against "Le-Braaahhn."

[Ditty]

Spurs in five. They are on a mission.

[dbreiden83080]

Broussard has never picked against "Le-Braaahhn."

And De-Wight....

[BillMc]

Spurs in five. They are on a mission.

In 5 for Number 5!!:toast

[doobs]

Spurs in 6

Rip their hearts out in Miami

In game 6

Don't fuck it up this time

GAME 6

[Aztecfan03]

http://www.suitstv.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/suits-season-3-louis-litt-trailer.jpg

The Heat are going to get LITT up.

[InRareForm]

Gutierrez has a douche face

[InRareForm]

Manu jumper seals the championship

[BatManu20]

This series is going at least 6, likely 7 tbh.. Miami will elevate their game to another level, higher than they have in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Their big 3 are all healthy and playing well right now, and they still have the best player in the world in Lebron James. I think the Spurs are extra motivated this year but even that only does so much. It's going to be a long, competitive series imo and the Spurs are going to have to play really well to win it in 6 or 7.

[xmas1997]

Bayless says Spurs in 6.
Stephen A. Smith says Heat in 7, and that he doesn't want to come to San Antonio.

I say Spurs in 5, but I am rarely right in my won/loss predictions.

[jag]

It's the advanced stats guys picking Spurs in 5.

Here is an insider article from today by Pelton convincingly arguing a Spurs title:



Spurs got this but it is funny that the one big outlier was Dwhistle Wade and Heat winning in 06.

Solid post

[Malik Hairston]

Not really sure why any "ESPN experts" thread always generates 3+ pages on SpursTalk, when most of these niggas are wrong about virtually everything, every year:lol..

[Robz4000]

What team has won b2b and lost in the Finals at an attempt for a 3peat?

I can see the Heat winning again, but I can also see the Spurs winning. I think officiating is going to play a big role, but I've not typically seen Lebron get favoritism. There's a first time for everything though. It's going to depend on how well Tony's ankle is doing.

Didn't the Bad Boy Pistons sweep the 2-time defending champ Lakers in the finals after losing to them in 7 the year before?

[Russ]

I've never seen a team going for a three-peat get less respect.

If this were the Spurs, the forum would be storming the palace.

It's quiet, too quiet . . .

[emanueldavidginobili]

Gutierrez and Broussard surprising picks lol

[BillMc]

Didn't the Bad Boy Pistons sweep the 2-time defending champ Lakers in the finals after losing to them in 7 the year before?

Yep. But part of that was because Magic tore a hamstring in Game 1, and Showtime just folded up without him.

[therealtruth]

pop has also had a year to tinker to what to do when someone goes small ball against us like miami did last year. that is why the thunder failed when they tried it. pop struggled with that adjustment last year.

The key adjustment is Diaw playing well.

[DMX7]

lol, everytime Brian has to even say the word "Spurs" he makes sure to add a contemptuous tone to voice and look to his face.

[Crookshanks]

The conclusion of the article is quite clear: unless the whole series is rigged a la Miami vs Dallas, the Spurs are the clear favourite.

Yeah - what I got from the article was that the Heat shouldn't have beat the Mavs in 2006, and probably wouldn't have if not for the completely biased officiating.

[ezau]

This is a six-game series at least and I do see the Spurs winning by blowout in Game 7.

[heyheymymy]

Morris and Pelton!!! :lmao:lobt2:

goin fuckin HAM

[hater]

There is no way the Heat win a game 7 in San Antonio.

thought long and hard about this and mostly agree. Spurs would just be too poised and want it more than Miami IMO.

Still, I have Miami with 33% chance to win a game 7

most likely scenarios in order:
Spurs in 7
Heat in 6
Heat in 7
Spurs in 6
Heat in 5
Spurs in 5

[phxspurfan]

bump

[Darius Bieber]

Pelton & Morris tbh

[phxspurfan]

a surprising number of people correctly predicted Spurs in 5. Wow (seeing as how the easy pick was Spurs or Heat in 7)

[spurraider21]

:lol israel gutierrez
:lol broussard

[BatManu20]

:lol

[Mugen]

:lol Israel Gutierrez, sisqo lookin' piece of shit
:lol Broussard, homophobic mongoloid who looks like an expired Hershey's Kiss tbh

[Nbadan]

Bayless says Spurs in 6.
Stephen A. Smith says Heat in 7, and that he doesn't want to come to San Antonio.

I say Spurs in 5, but I am rarely right in my won/loss predictions.

:lol

[Juggity]

How is Chris Broussard not homeless and unemployed?

The guy has literally no sense of the NBA, no legitimate NBA sources, no sensible takes on anything.

[baseline bum]

It's the advanced stats guys picking Spurs in 5.

Here is an insider article from today by Pelton convincingly arguing a Spurs title:



Spurs got this but it is funny that the one big outlier was Dwhistle Wade and Heat winning in 06.

:worthy: :worthy: :worthy: :worthy: :worthy:

[spurraider21]

:lol Israel Gutierrez, sisqo lookin' piece of shit
:lol Broussard, homophobic mongoloid who looks like an expired Hershey's Kiss tbh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYfQQJs98aQ

[jARS mEsH sEt]

How is Chris Broussard not homeless and unemployed?

The guy has literally no sense of the NBA, no legitimate NBA sources, no sensible takes on anything.

I mean you've seen retards work as grocery baggers haven't you? Chris Broussard is kind of like that. He's the village idiot of ESPN and they'd probably feel bad about firing him so they just let him stick around so he doesn't feel like he's a complete waste of space.

[Josh810]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYfQQJs98aQDude is terrifying.

[will_spurs]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYfQQJs98aQ

"Parker is a top 5 MVP candidate but he's arguably the 5th best PG in the playoffs."


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAKG-kbKeIo

[Macca76]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYfQQJs98aQ

Hard to be so wrong on so many levels in just 1:04 min. Wow :wow
my favorite : "Duncan is now David Robinson. He needs the next Tim Duncan to get him another ring". With all due respect to David Robinson, Duncan's current level is just amazing and he is such a major part in this title. I mean in all the playoffs, he is maybe the most important player in the team, the one that has contributed the most, even if the title is really a team title, which makes the "Titles normally go to superstars, plural" part, so funny.
Thanks for posting the video, it's a gem :lol

[100%duncan]

I laughed at people who picked Spurs in 5. Although I saw us winning it I never thought the Spurs could rape the Heat in a manner in which they did.

[barakz21]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYfQQJs98aQ

Damn, he looks like a faggot.... And no disrespect intended for the gays.

[baseline bum]

Yep. But part of that was because Magic tore a hamstring in Game 1, and Showtime just folded up without him.

That was in the third quarter of Game 2. There was no way Detroit was losing that series.

[tholdren]

:lol israel gutierrez
:lol broussard
Those two are both trash. One is marc anthony's gayer brother, and the other is Dave Chapelle in white-face.