ESPN Insider Request -- Finals: Scouting Heat-Spurs

[Uriel]

Could anyone with ESPN Insider please post the following article? Thanks in advance. :toast

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014/story/_/id/11025382/2014-nba-finals-miami-heat-versus-san-antonio-spurs

[spursluva]

The Finals aren't a rematch so much as a sequel, the conclusion to a compelling drama introduced last spring. The Miami Heat won the first go-round, but over the seven games, the San Antonio Spurs outscored Miami by a ridiculously close margin of 684-679. Flags fly forever, but did Miami really prove any kind of superiority?

These types of return matches used to be commonplace in the NBA, a king-of-the-hill league in which once a team crawled on top of the heap, it was difficult to knock it off. But we haven't had a rematch since the Chicago Bulls-Utah Jazz in 1998, a testament to how the league has evolved in terms of parity.

By winning their respective conferences again, the Heat and Spurs have further moved away from the pack. With six conference titles, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich is outranked by only Phil Jackson and Pat Riley, but Riley protégé Erik Spoelstra has now won four -- more than all but Pop, Jackson, Riley and K.C. Jones. Truly this Finals matchup pits the elite against the elite in 21st-century basketball.

San Antonio Spurs-Miami Heat
NBA Finals preview

Question 1: Tony Parker's ankle injury kept him out of the second half of San Antonio's series-clinching win versus the Oklahoma City Thunder. Can the Spurs continue to overcome his absence with contributions from the whole?

Elhassan: The good news for San Antonio is the gamble to sit Parker in the second half of Game 6 paid off, giving him more than five full days of rest before Game 1 of the Finals. Add in aggressive treatment on the training table and he should be ready to go. That said, a less-than-full-strength Parker still puts San Antonio at a disadvantage. As much as the Spurs have been able to pick up the slack through the play of the collective, Parker's ability to penetrate and finish around the basket (and to lead the team in scoring in doing so) is a pivotal part of the offense, particularly against an aggressive, athletic defense like Miami's. It would be hard to see San Antonio overcome a substandard or absent Parker and win the series without a significant and sustained boost in play from several players, most notably Manu Ginobili and Boris Diaw, the best two playmakers outside of Parker.

Parker

Doolittle: The Spurs' all-hands-on-deck approach has become the defining trait of this season's team, making it as well-positioned to absorb a major injury as a team could be. Parker's ankle does not yet qualify as major, but as the series progresses, Pop may have to make the same kind of call he did against Oklahoma City. That is, if Parker's injury slows him down, at what point is he a lesser option than the combination of Patty Mills and Cory Joseph? Parker wasn't in optimum form in last year's Finals. He was brilliant at times but struggled to a combined shooting performance of 9-for-35 over the last two losses. I would be surprised if he's allowed to flail like that again. The emergence of Kawhi Leonard, Mills and Marco Belinelli as other options who can create on the rare occasion that the San Antonio system breaks down marks this series as different. It's telling to note that the Spurs were 11-3 when Parker didn't play.

Question 2: Miami feasts off turnovers, and when the Spurs struggle, miscues usually play a big role. How does that play out this time around?

Elhassan: Miami's aggressive play in the passing lanes has laid waste to three straight playoff opponents. The Heat do an excellent job of denying clean entry passes, fronting or 3/4'ing the post and sagging help defenders over, and feature players with excellent gambling intuitions like LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. Meanwhile, San Antonio has seen its beautiful offense devolve into a nightmare situation, as in the Game 2 blowout home loss to Dallas and particularly in losses to Oklahoma City, whose length and athleticism allowed it to disrupt the timing and precision. The usually unflappable Spurs looked rushed and hurried against the Thunder and started playing out of character, forcing the issue. This is why Parker's availability means so much: His speed and penetrating ability are an antidote to Miami's ball-hawking defense.

James

Doolittle: The Heat are a momentum team that is energized by live-ball turnovers, and as we saw at the beginning of the fourth quarter of last year's Game 6, San Antonio is not immune to one of Miami's trademark game-deciding bursts. This season, Miami was just 10-11 when forcing turnovers on less than 13 percent of opposing possessions. It's the effect on the Miami offense that makes turnovers important, more so than they do for San Antonio's offense. The Spurs' attack is predicated on ball movement, and turnovers are often an unavoidable offshoot of a lot of passing. The Spurs went just 13-7 when they committed miscues on 16 percent or more of their possessions. But when their turnover rate was 11 percent or less, they were 15-8 -- about the same percentage. This suggests that ball-stopping is just as much of a risk for the Spurs as turnovers.

Question 3: Who needs to win the series more? Will this series have any real impact on the legacies of the Hall of Famers involved?

Elhassan: On one side, the Spurs triumvirate of Parker, Ginobili and Tim Duncan is vying for a fourth title together (fifth overall for Duncan); on the other end, Bosh, James and Wade are in their fourth straight Finals appearance and searching for a third consecutive title (fourth overall for Wade). Additionally, Ray Allen will look to add a third title and perhaps another memorable shot or performance in a career filled with them. Suffice it to say, the legacies of these future Hall of Famers should already be set in stone, and any additional accolades earned are just another page added to what are already storybook careers.

Bosh

Doolittle: There will be a lot of talk about legacies in this series. On one hand, it's a soft topic, but as someone who relishes and studies NBA history, it's hard to deny that Miami and San Antonio are a big part of this era of NBA basketball. I see this as more important to Miami's legacy; nothing can really alter how we'll eventually remember the Spurs. But LeBron is chasing the ring collections of Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, and Chris Bosh's eventual Hall of Fame case might hinge on the Heat's title count. The Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers and Chicago Bulls are the only franchises to own three-peats, so this is Miami's chance to embed the James-Wade-Bosh era in NBA annals.

Predictions

Elhassan: Spurs in 7. As I've said before, picking anyone in seven games is sort of a cowardly way of pointing out that either team can win this series. If it's even possible to categorize "needs it more," San Antonio has to rate higher in that department. Seldom does a team get the opportunity to avenge being 10 seconds away from a title and losing it, and that desperation has carried the Spurs this entire season. Miami's ability to create havoc defensively gives me pause, but I think the combination of San Antonio's size advantage and the fact that Popovich has never lost two series to the same coach (other than Phil Jackson) gives the Spurs the edge.

Don't be surprised if: Diaw spends a considerable amount of time guarding James. Diaw's IQ and size help him against a physical anomaly like James, and he did well in matchups during last year's Finals. James will need to aggressively attack the space Diaw gives up when he sags off him to force the Spurs out of that matchup.

Doolittle: Heat in 7. If I'm completely objective, I have a hard time picking against the Spurs. They were a better regular-season team and have been terrific in surviving a much tougher postseason road than Miami had to face in the East. In the end, I just feel like the chance to three-peat will bring out a level of play we haven't seen consistently from the Heat this season. I'm going with the Heat, but I also think that either San Antonio wins in five or Miami wins a long series.

Don't be surprised if: We see some odd finishing lineups from San Antonio. Popovich's playoff rotations haven't been hugely different than the ones that led to the Spurs becoming the first team to not have anyone average at least 30 minutes. Three are over that in the playoffs, but Tim Duncan's 32.6 minutes leads the team and ranks just 50th among everyone in the postseason. Pop will roll with whatever is working.

Log5 probabilities: 73 percent chance the Spurs win the series.

[Uriel]

Thank you very much, sir. :toast

[ElNono]

thanks

[heyheymymy]

thanks spursluva

[Tbiggums47]

One thing is for sure.....You have to respect the Heat and their perspective motivations for winning a title but, with that being said....There is NO WAY IN HELL...The Spurs lose to these guys....I don't know how many games it will take but no way we lose this series....GSG!!!!

[heyheymymy]

One thing is for sure.....You have to respect the Heat and their perspective motivations for winning a title but, with that being said....There is NO WAY IN HELL...The Spurs lose to these guys....I don't know how many games it will take but no way we lose this series....GSG!!!!

GO SPURS GO!!

[BillMc]

Thanks for posting.

Damn, Thursday can't get here soon enough! :)

[BillMc]

I love how Lebron (2 rings) is chasing Kobe's ring count, but not Duncan (4) who would tie him with a win. In other words, only the most popular players' ring counts matter.

[Captivus]

I love how Lebron (2 rings) is chasing Kobe's ring count, but not Duncan (4) who would tie him with a win. In other words, only the most popular players' ring counts matter.

Yes...he is also not chasing Steve Kerr.

[DBMethos]

Yes...he is also not chasing Steve Kerr.

Meh...they're all chasing Big Shot Bob.

[Jimcs50]

I love how Lebron (2 rings) is chasing Kobe's ring count, but not Duncan (4) who would tie him with a win. In other words, only the most popular players' ring counts matter.


Duncan does not count for anything.

:rolleyes