ESPN Insider/Pelton stats/trends say 88% chance Spurs get ring

[Rummpd]

The Heat (plus-7.0) and Spurs (plus-8.0) had similar average margins of victory en route to the Finals. However, San Antonio played a much more difficult schedule in the competitive West. So San Antonio's adjusted differential of plus-11.6 points per game is much better than Miami's plus-8.1 mark.

A regression that combines regular-season win differential and playoff performance leading up to the Finals -- but not defensive rating, which isn't statistically significant as part of a regression -- correctly retrodicts 27 of the past 30 Finals outcomes. Based on that, San Antonio has an 88 percent chance of winning the Finals. . . That might prove the case because the Heat haven't yet been seriously challenged in the playoffs. But they'll have to raise their level considerably to match the way San Antonio is playing. Six times this postseason, the Spurs have beaten opponents by 20 points more than an average team in the same situation. Miami has done that only once -- the closeout Game 6 against Indiana.

Interesting read...
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11019992/2014-nba-finals-miami-heat-defy-trends-pull-win

[Dex]

No offense to you, good doctor, but...I'm tired of reading about all these statistics and percentages.

The Spurs had a like a 0.5 percent chance of losing 6 coming out of that timeout with 28 seconds left, but that found a way to happen.

I'm ready to get these damn games started.

[Budkin]

Let's just go get this shit and wipe 6 away forever.

[hater]

another kiss of death :pctoss

fuck this shit :pctoss :pctoss

[hater]

Congrats Heat on the 3peat (fwiw)

[heyheymymy]

lol espn

[crc21209]

No offense to you, good doctor, but...I'm tired of reading about all these statistics and percentages.

The Spurs had a like a 0.5 percent chance of losing 6 coming out of that timeout with 28 seconds left, but that found a way to happen.

I'm ready to get these damn games started.

+1. Lets get this shit started already..

[xmas1997]

Congrats Heat on the 3peat (fwiw)

Why are you so negative?
You are beginning to sound as bad as kobyz.
This isn't healthy.

[heyheymymy]

Why are you so negative?
You are beginning to sound as bad as kobyz.
This isn't healthy.


lol kobyz threads are contagious, i won't even open them

[Prose]

No offense to you, good doctor, but...I'm tired of reading about all these statistics and percentages.

The Spurs had a like a 0.5 percent chance of losing 6 coming out of that timeout with 28 seconds left, but that found a way to happen.

I'm ready to get these damn games started.

[dg7md]

No offense to you, good doctor, but...I'm tired of reading about all these statistics and percentages.

The Spurs had a like a 0.5 percent chance of losing 6 coming out of that timeout with 28 seconds left, but that found a way to happen.

I'm ready to get these damn games started.

This is all very true, but the percentage chance of that happening to us occurred during the middle of the game as opposed to statistics weighing both teams at the start of a series onto the Finals, it's a little bit different when you approach it in a perspective like this.

[exstatic]

Why are you so negative?
You are beginning to sound as bad as kobyz.
This isn't healthy.

If you haven't figured out that hater is a troll and NOT a Spurs fan, and put him on ignore, I can't help you. Arguing with trolls is like arguing with a brick wall: not very productive.

[313]

Hater rustling jimmies per par :lmao

[Jenks]

If you haven't figured out that hater is a troll and NOT a Spurs fan, and put him on ignore, I can't help you. Arguing with trolls is like arguing with a brick wall: not very productive.
He's a Spurs fan just doing negative nancy shtick.

[capek]

He's a Spurs fan just doing negative nancy shtick.

Which, one could argue, makes him not a fan at all. You either come to a site like this because your fandom compels you and you want to talk about your team, or you're some faggot with nothing better to do than try to entertain yourself with something as inherently lame as internet forum shtick. There is no overlap between those two categories of forum posters.

As to the article being discussed, yes, let's just get the games started. If Parker is hitting his jump shot, that'll make it easier for him to drive, which will be especially important considering the state of his ankle. I think a concrete fact like that has exponentially more relevance than any statistical trend work. Though, of course, it's not something you can fluff up into an article.

[Spurs9]

No offense to you, good doctor, but...I'm tired of reading about all these statistics and percentages.

The Spurs had a like a 0.5 percent chance of losing 6 coming out of that timeout with 28 seconds left, but that found a way to happen.

I'm ready to get these damn games started.

Exactly. Its not over until we are holding that trophy.

[TampaDude]

Exactly. Its not over until we are holding that trophy.

^ this

Anyone who brings the trophy out while a deciding game is still underway needs to be shot dead. I'm still convinced that was a psychological ploy in Game 6, and it fucking worked. Not this time, faggots! :nope

[dg7md]

^ this

Anyone who brings the trophy out while a deciding game is still underway needs to be shot dead. I'm still convinced that was a psychological ploy in Game 6, and it fucking worked. Not this time, faggots! :nope

The minute I saw the trophy, and the announcers bring it up, I knew that some shit was about to go down...

[Uriel]

This, to me, is the most encouraging reason to think the Spurs will win. Basketball pundits have all manner of reasons for justifying one pick over another, but only objective statistical analysis actually holds valid predictive power in my book.

Hooray for analytics. :toast

[wildchild]

Spurs back to the 2014 Finals after a painful game 7 loss is one of the greatest come back of the past few decades in NBA history.
I'm not a big fan of stats and numbers, I just like how confident sound our players last days. The confidence is an intangible and we have the mindset of a team champion.
The Spurs'll be fine and win this ring. Keep the defensive intensity and play smart. :flag:

[smaka]

Congrats Heat on the 3peat (fwiw)
Can your account be disabled if the Spurs win it all?

[Mikeanaro]

Can your account be disabled if the Spurs win it all?
Leave him alone, dude have no fucking balls and is not a fucking Spurs fan either.