Advanced statistics: Spurs in 4 is more likely than any outcome in which Heat win

[Uriel]

https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/t1.0-9/10422246_10152455356472236_6776209440312923623_n.j pg

The Spurs, on the whole, are given a 78.5% chance of winning the entire series.

Read more: http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014/story/_/id/11036920/san-antonio-spurs-favored

[dg7md]

But but but LeBron left the game. :cry
It was hot. :cry
It wasn't fair because LeBron wasn't there. :cry
Asterisk if we win. :cry

[Uriel]

What's amazing is that these projections were made even before the series started. To think that the Spurs winning in 4 is more likely than the Heat winning in 6 is just mind boggling.

[dg7md]

No way we don't win in 5 if we win Sunday... Maybe 6 if we lose.

[Skoobz]

Ive had a feeling we're goin to sweep and Duncan gets finals MVP.

[heyheymymy]

Ive had a feeling we're goin to sweep and Duncan gets finals MVP.

then spurs come back and repeat in 15 and duncan and manu retire, and then kawhi green, daye, bertans and splitter lead SA to a 3 peat!

[will_spurs]

I'd be fine with a sweep but given how close Game 1 was, I'd say it's rather optimistic to think this series will be so short...

[100%duncan]

Idk, I think it's stupid

[dg7md]

I'd be fine with a sweep but given how close Game 1 was, I'd say it's rather optimistic to think this series will be so short...

Not "short" but, we played utterly terrible and found a way to win by 15, with or without LeBron that's an incredible. 23 turnovers is not something we will repeat...

[will_spurs]

Not "short" but, we played utterly terrible and found a way to win by 15, with or without LeBron that's an incredible. 23 turnovers is not something we will repeat...

Surely. At the same time I don't think we will have 31-9 runs in the 4th every game either...

[itsamanuthree]

4 is probably too much, but yesterday the team looked so superior. If only they could have cut the turnovers, it could have been a blowout.

The sensation is that there'll be no drop in the Spurs' performance going forward, there's no "wait, they can't possibly keep shooting like this, or passing like this or being this lucky", cause they actually weren't extraordinary at any of that, they just fucking outassisted, outteamplayed their opponent (Manu! Dat BRAIN he has!!! Brain manuhaters lack). Maybe there's even room for improvment and we get the sweep, who knows. Of course, there's still the Heat on the other side.

[Whisky Dog]

This isn't going to be a sweep. All the fun of the victory and Lebron cramping out aside... That's still a very good team who can win this series if the Spurs don't take care of business every game. Even if we're lucky and they get a 3-0 lead they aren't winning game 4.

I'm very hopeful for Spurs in 5 but I just want a championship win however it comes.

[will_spurs]

there's no "wait, they can't possibly keep shooting like this" [...] cause they actually weren't extraordinary at [...] that

From memory the Spurs shot 58% or so. That's quite close to extraordinary when it comes to the NBA Finals.

[itsamanuthree]

From memory the Spurs shot 58% or so. That's quite close to extraordinary when it comes to the NBA Finals.

Hmm, oh well, it didn't look like XD

Yes indeed, thats pretty extraordinary...

Still, dont know, I don't know much about basket, I don't follow stats much, but before all the 4th quarter shoots began to fall in, I sensed the spurs were the superior team.

And, I mean, well, there's a big difference as well when a team has somthg like 60% shooting with a shot selection that includes contested shots and so on, and a team that has 60% shooting because their team basketball takes them there. Big difference.

[ImDaNuts]

What's amazing is that these projections were made even before the series started. To think that the Spurs winning in 4 is more likely than the Heat winning in 6 is just mind boggling.

Betting sites the two most favorited outcomes were Spurs in 7 for the Spurs and Miami in 6. With the Spurs in 7 being the the most favorite odds. Either team in 4 was like +1000 and higher

[Budkin]

Makes no fucking sense. I don't buy this.

[hater]

Stupid thread. Will bump once heat win

[phxspurfan]

It's likely just some statistical average over all finals or playoff 7 game series in which the home team won the first game. Spurs still have to go out and beat the defending champs 3 more games out of 6, with 2 games likely lost in Miami.

[phxspurfan]

I think this part is easily visible to anyone who watches the games:


LeBron James is the best player on the planet, with a staggeringly high, league-leading RPM value of plus-9.19. That's the number of points he contributes to the Heat per 100 possessions (both offensive and defensive possessions).

Yet the Spurs still come out with a decisive edge in our analysis. In fact, the RPM model says they are better than the Heat by about 3 points per game (3.5 points per 100 possessions).

Why? In a word: depth. The Spurs have a ridiculous number of really good players, sporting eight guys on the roster with an RPM rating of plus-2.0 or better. That's high enough to start sniffing All-Star territory. In stark contrast, Miami has a top-heavy talent distribution, forcing the Heat to hand out key playoff minutes to players with negative RPM values, which drags down their net efficiency.

At the end of the day, the Spurs' depth prevails, big time.

When LeBron is on the floor, the Heat are slightly better than the Spurs simply due to his super-stardom. But the Heat have no one else who can really match the Spurs overall greatness. So when LeBron leaves the court (which he will have to at some point), the Spurs will go on runs due to their superior bench and gain those points back, plus 3 points on average, per game.

I still think we lose at least 2 in Miami, as they will have home court, ref advantage, crowd and their role players will come up big. But HCA is huge here, as when it gets back to SATown, we will be prohibitive favorites because of advantages in almost every category, except for best player on the court.

And if Miami doesn't get all those home advantages (like if the role players choke, or they don't get home-baked calls), then I can see the Spurs winning much easier, like in 5.

[Knoxxx]

Surely. At the same time I don't think we will have 31-9 runs in the 4th every game either...

We won't need to either.

[Uriel]

It's likely just some statistical average over all finals or playoff 7 game series in which the home team won the first game. Spurs still have to go out and beat the defending champs 3 more games out of 6, with 2 games likely lost in Miami.
It's not! These projections were made BEFORE Game 1 using ESPN's new Real-Plus Minus stat.

[xmas1997]

I don't buy it. The Heat came damn close to winning last night and might have if James had not gone out with cramps.
I predicted the Spurs in 5, but my predictions are rarely correct.
Yet I doubt a sweep is realistic judging from the first game.

[moisaenz]

I dont know about you guys but the spurs seemed superior for most of the time lebron was in the game. even when they called bosh's 4 point play they had barely gotten over the hump and had a lead.. before that they would make runs and spurs were still up by a few points.

[DMC]

Idk, I think it's stupid

The thing about odds is that they typically factor in more than one iteration of an event and what the likely outcome would be in a large sample size. That goes out the window when you get down to one sample only.

I see how it's interesting fodder for discussion, but it's meaningless.

[DMC]

I dont know about you guys but the spurs seemed superior for most of the time lebron was in the game. even when they called bosh's 4 point play they had barely gotten over the hump and had a lead.. before that they would make runs and spurs were still up by a few points.

Maybe we were watching different games but I seem to recall the Spurs having 10 turnovers in the 3rd and being down going into the 4th. I don't consider that superior.

[DMC]

It's not! These projections were made BEFORE Game 1 using ESPN's new Real-Plus Minus stat.

Using what exactly? RS matchup outcomes? SOS vs record? Individual PER and mpg? HCA? What?

[Uriel]

Using what exactly? RS matchup outcomes? SOS vs record? Individual PER and mpg? HCA? What?
Using the playoff data set. They projected the likely rotations and minute distribution in the Finals based on this data set and used RPM to measure the strength of each team and calculate the probability of winning.

[dbreiden83080]

Uh okay.. I think we had about a 98% chance of winning game 6 up 5 with 28 seconds left..

[N0 LyF3 ScRuB]

Uh okay.. I think we had about a 98% chance of winning game 6 up 5 with 28 seconds left..

99

[Fireball]

winning game two would be huge as Miami never loses twice in a row in the playoffs ... with HCA we can still pull it off, but going up 2:0, man I would love that

[UZER]

Not "short" but, we played utterly terrible and found a way to win by 15, with or without LeBron that's an incredible. 23 turnovers is not something we will repeat...

Credit Miami's D for a lot of turnovers, but the problem is they cannot maintain that D on that level for an entire game much less a long series.

And credit to the spurs for making them work so hard every possession.

[therealtruth]

I think game 1 shows exactly why it's possible. The Spurs turned it over that many times and still won. They're usually not going to turn over the ball that many times. That means more shots at the basket. The Heat probably lost their chance to win. The Spurs are too good offensively for the Heat to slow them down and their defense is good enough to keep the Heat from winning. For the Heat to have a chance of winning they will need to keep the Spurs below 100. If the Spurs continue to execute their offense they have enough weapons that should be no problem.

[therealtruth]

Uh okay.. I think we had about a 98% chance of winning game 6 up 5 with 28 seconds left..

Yeah Pop outcoached himself there. Defied the odds. Most coaches would have put TD out there and got the win. It should have been pretty simple coaching. You put out your best defensive and rebounding unit. It's useless without both. You play your best defenders but no rebounders and you never get the rebound on the miss. You play your best rebounders and you never get the other team to miss. However if you were to choose one it would be better to go with your best rebounders. You're hoping for a miss so when that happens you're going to need to get the rebound.

[DMC]

I don't think percentages work well where individual decisions come into play. Even God has had a hard time with that one.

[weeks]

no way does the NBA allow this to be a sweep. they want their money.

[Cklbmk]

no way does the NBA allow this to be a sweep. they want their money.


Winner

Spurs in 6

[wildchild]

I'm not a big fan of stats , I just like how the Spurs maintained their focus in the 4th quarter last game, they showed the mindset of a team champion.
The Spurs'll be fine, they'll win this ring. Keep the defensive intensity and play smart :flag: