The Heat's Whack-a-Mole Problem

[BillMc]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-heats-whac-a-mole-problem/

Nice points on how Manu and Tony helped Leonard and Green get going.

[buttsR4rebounding]

On one of Coach Nick's segments he pointed out that the Spurs have identified that when the Heat defense is forced to go into a 3rd set of rotations on a possession that they lose focus and are late on the rotation. That many times the open shot against the Heat comes in the last 5 seconds of the shot clock. Not many teams have the discipline or execution to take advantage of that.

[Mr. Body]

On one of Coach Nick's segments he pointed out that the Spurs have identified that when the Heat defense is forced to go into a 3rd set of rotations on a possession that they lose focus and are late on the rotation. That many times the open shot against the Heat comes in the last 5 seconds of the shot clock. Not many teams have the discipline or execution to take advantage of that.

May be the reason they emphasized very quick decisions in moving the ball or attacking. Miami thrives on indecision. Quick (but good) decisions keep the defense moving and creates those mistakes.

[BillMc]

The interesting thing is a number of commentators/articles have mentioned that the Heat are beginning to "dial back" their defense because the Spurs are using their overly aggressive defense against them. Which means the Heat are already beginning to think, and thus over-think on D.

We got this. Could easily be 3-0 at this point. No way we can't win 2 of 4.

[will_spurs]

It loops back to what Pop was telling Tony: "great leadership". It must be tough for a top player to be merely acting as a decoy most of the time... but it leads to easy baskets for other players. Of course this wouldn't be working quite so nicely if the Heat weren't respecting Parker by doubling him and denying him as much as possible.

[gilmor]

Very good article.. Very true in every aspect

[thispego]

The interesting thing is a number of commentators/articles have mentioned that the Heat are beginning to "dial back" their defense because the Spurs are using their overly aggressive defense against them. Which means the Heat are already beginning to think, and thus over-think on D.

We got this. Could easily be 3-0 at this point. No way we can't win 2 of 4.
Stupid

[4down]

The heat can certainly adjust and sharpen t heir play but it will come at a cost. I don't know if over thinking is really the problem with that level of aggression on D. Rather it's overreaction to certain movements and also the compound effect of 'flying' to the ball over so many possessions will burn a lot of gas. Spoelstra seemed flustered when asked about the energy demand on James.and I think it's related to the fact that what the heats defense is designed to do can be both its greatest asset and liability if exploited properly. If they dial it back they are less likely to get runouts for easy shots and fuel the crowd energy as well. It also means more passing lanes will be available.

Great also to see Tony (hopefully) realizing he doesn't have to lead the team (scoring) in order to lead the team.

[TheGoldStandard]

And slowly Tony is getting the rest he needs to be effective and the ankle is a non factor. He has a big game in him yet

[Seventyniner]

One thing about LeBron going heroball in game 2 was that it allowed everyone on both teams to take a breather. LeBron would dribble it down to 10 before launching, reducing the number of possessions in the game.

Two reasons why the Heat prefer to play slow: fewer possessions means you can exert more energy per possession, and a slower pace benefits the better team. Indiana's grind-it-out style played right into Miami's hands.

The Spurs counter both by making fast decisions with the ball (speeding up the game and making depth a bigger factor) and by not being a worse team than Miami.

[Mr. Body]

The heat can certainly adjust and sharpen t heir play but it will come at a cost. I don't know if over thinking is really the problem with that level of aggression on D. Rather it's overreaction to certain movements and also the compound effect of 'flying' to the ball over so many possessions will burn a lot of gas. Spoelstra seemed flustered when asked about the energy demand on James.and I think it's related to the fact that what the heats defense is designed to do can be both its greatest asset and liability if exploited properly. If they dial it back they are less likely to get runouts for easy shots and fuel the crowd energy as well. It also means more passing lanes will be available.

Great also to see Tony (hopefully) realizing he doesn't have to lead the team (scoring) in order to lead the team.

Spoelstra's smart enough to know the Heat has only a certain number of nitro-bursts as a team per game, where they're locked in, swarming, and locked-in. They're too old and thin to do otherwise. Who wins tonight largely depends on when these bursts have to be done. Due to emotion they may go in at the start, which could be a bad sign.

[Mugen]

I'm hoping that Bron is shifted away from Parker because I think TP is due for a huge game in this series tbh.

[therealtruth]

Time for a big 3 game to put the Heat on the brink.

[Kidd K]

The Heat’s offense played at a high level in this game as well, but it was chasing an absurd threshold of efficiency almost from the outset.

:lmao

[BatManu20]

The Heat will play their best game this series tonight, unfortunately.

[UZER]

If Chalmers continues to struggle, spo might have to pull the plug and go with the no guard lineup. While this works in short spurts, if it's out there to long the spurs will eventually figure it out and start exploiting the mismatches.

[gilmor]

And slowly Tony is getting the rest he needs to be effective and the ankle is a non factor. He has a big game in him yet

This sounds like Lord of the Rings.. Gandalf talking

[BillMc]

The Heat will play their best game this series tonight, unfortunately.

Probably, but this still may not be enough.

[4down]

Spoelstra's smart enough to know the Heat has only a certain number of nitro-bursts as a team per game, where they're locked in, swarming, and locked-in. They're too old and thin to do otherwise. Who wins tonight largely depends on when these bursts have to be done. Due to emotion they may go in at the start, which could be a bad sign.

No doubt, and good point. Spurs will have to weather those bursts and keep their heads during tough stretches For Spoelstra its like playing excitebike and trying to balance going full throttle without overheating

[therealtruth]

Just need to handle the second half burst. Spurs need to continue playing good defense. Their offense can possibly even get better as the Heat get demoralized.