Miami still has 10% chance to win this according to the Vegas

[hitmantb]

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/nba/2014-06-13/heat-spurs-game-5-spread-betting-line-nba-finals-odds-updated-series-price

As we all know, the true gap between Spurs and Heat is much much smaller than what games 3 and 4 indicate. Momentum is a powerful thing and nobody on this planet thought Spurs would be able to win both games in Miami in blow out fashion. Heck most of us predicted a split at best and a potential series ending 1-3 deficit. Momentum can turn against us in a hurry. We saw Spain Tiki-taka against Netherland today, and how fragile a system of precision can be once it is disrupted. We have to win this while we still have the hot hands.

1) No matter how many times we remind ourselves of 6, you can not fake desperation
2) No matter how many times players say it is only 3-1, there is going to be a little bit of complacency
3) Players are human, Spurs system when everyone is playing 100% unselfish is unbeatable, but with FMVP on the line, there is always a possibility for certain players to take a couple more ISO shots and disrupt the passing game, it is human nature
4) The law of averages says Spurs can not sustain the same level of shooting and passing, a slight swing to the means is in order
5) Heat doesn't really believe they can win at this point, but with nothing to lose and two full days of rest instead of one, they will just play it loose and see what happens because they played much better here in San Antonio
6) LeBron, never underestimate the heart of a champion at/near the peak of his power
7) Injury is always a factor
8) Referees can prolong the series, maybe the league's plot this year is the most amazing comeback ever to cement LeBron's legacy, or at least send a tragic hero to game 7
9) Heat can make dirty plays out of desperation, remember what we did to Suns in 2007?
10) If God wanted LeBron to be Jordan's heir, he already made a move last year, he can make another move this year

This is truly a special team but if you are human, you have fear and greed. For Miami, other than LeBron does anyone else really benefit that much from another ring? As special as this team is, vengeance and level of hunger will go down next year, desire for personal gains will grow, and I don't think we will ever see such a selfless team playing the best system in modern basketball to perfection ever again.

When it is over, I will make a public confession on how many times I doubted this team this year, but I am scared to death right now about this beautiful carriage turning back into a pumpkin. Blow them out early, don't give them any ideas!

[mudyez]

F*** we are toast!

Stopped reading around point 4 as it freaks me out!

One more! Please! GSG!

1

[MeloHype]

31-0

[Horry Hipcheck]

31-0

End fucking thread.

[dg7md]

While you are right, we do have a chance to lose, your points are not really that accurate nor very appropriate to the situations that all of the games so far have proven.

Throughout all games, so far, the Heat have played a lesser-quality level of basketball as we have. This is not a debatable claim, the Heat have been outplayed despite winning one game, which was a consequence of the Spurs not finishing or making easy plays like free throws to cost us the game. They won by 2, when we had a chance to go up by 5 or 6 with less than 2 minutes in the game.

Injuries are more of a factor for Miami. Our roster is 10 deep that are playing out of their minds, the Heat need LeBron or they have zero chances to win this series.

None of our players will cost us the game on behalf of Finals MVP — are you kidding me? That has never happened before, and if it did seem like it were happening Pop would pull them out of the game and yell at them. Pop has no issues arguing with any player on our team so there is no chance someone will hero ball us out of the game on behalf of Finals MVP, which is not as important to any of the players as winning the NBA championship.

The referees have been very good this Finals, for the most part. They have been consistent with calls, horrible and good calls were had on both ends and none of them caused any game to go another direction.

If the Heat do some dirty plays, it might benefit us. Some have said the turning point of the series, in our favor, was the dirty elbow to Parker from Chalmers. Ever since that, we've been wiping the floor with Miami.

And, the "law of averages" isn't even a real thing, it's a fallacy that gamblers in particular use to cite the occurrences of random events. It's an easy, layman term to describe the nature of events and regressing to a level of talent that is more appropriate to their "averages" — but there is no true "law of averages" in the world.

And using "God" as a point? Seriously? I get that you are a little afraid of a meltdown happening, none of the points you said are really all that likely or credible to occur against us. The Heat will lose the series because they were the worst team, and usually, in a best-of-7, the best team wins out. Yes, that includes the Heat winning last year because they were better than us, but just barely, and we could have won it anyway because it came down to one incident. For the Heat to win this series, they need to have a lot of incidents occur in their favor that would be extremely unlikely to occur over the span of 3 games in a row. There is a reason it has never been done before, because it is the two best teams in the NBA clashing, and when a good team gets a 3-game lead on a series, it's very, very unlikely that the tables will turn.

Yes, we got backdoor swept in 2012, but that was a much, much worse team than this year, and we had never been that good against the Thunder, while we've never really had major issues with the Heat.

[Rapper]

Am I the only one spurs fan who maintains that Heat in 7? yeah probably the spurs will lose by a historical buzzer beater in 2 OT

My sixth sense told me

[Mikeanaro]

Am I the only one spurs fan who maintains that Heat in 7? yeah probably the spurs will lose by a historical buzzer beater in 2 OT

My sixth sense told me
You are not a spurs fan, you are just an idiot and should go check your brain with a doctor something is wrong down there.

[hsxvvd]

In Australia the odds are 9-1 for Miami to win the series 4-3. I'm trying to weigh up how much I'd be prepared to bet in order to be adequately compensated should we lose.

Insurance bet? For example, if I lay down $55.... the $500 payout will be compensation payout for a loss. If we win, fuck it... $55 is nothing.

What amount would you need to be compensated for the loss? And would you be willing to pay the money to make the bet?

I'm thinking the $55 is worth it, just to soften the blow... It won't be enough, but it can help pay to drink away the pain...lol

[hsxvvd]

$20 down on Miami to win in 7 paying 9 to 1. Paylayed onto Lebron wins MVP 11 to 1. Pays $1980.

I'd give away $20 in a heat beat for us to win it, and if Miami wins it's a lock Lebron wins MVP.

[MI21]

$20 down on Miami to win in 7 paying 9 to 1. Paylayed onto Lebron wins MVP 11 to 1. Pays $1980.

I'd give away $20 in a heat beat for us to win it, and if Miami wins it's a lock Lebron wins MVP.

Every time I've tried to make that multi it is telling me I can't combine those two things. I put an emotional insurance bet on Miami at 10/1...

[hsxvvd]

TAB Sportsbet seems to be allowing it, but I haven't actually gone through checkout. I was going to go in to a TAB tomorrow and do it for $30 if it allows me.

[midnightpulp]

What sites are our Australian friends putting the bets down at?

[hsxvvd]

What sites are our Australian friends putting the bets down at?

https://www.tabtouch.mobi/#

TAB Sportsbet.

[TampaDude]

https://www.tabtouch.mobi/#

TAB Sportsbet.

I just checked that site and the odds on Miami and LeBron are each at 11 to 1, so a parlay would return 121 dollars for each dollar bet.

If I lay $100 on that, and the Heat pull off the historic comeback, LeBron would be MVP for sure, and I'd win $12,100. That would sure soften the blow!

[hsxvvd]

I just checked that site and the odds on Miami and LeBron are each at 11 to 1, so a parlay would return 121 dollars for each dollar bet.

If I lay $100 on that, and the Heat pull off the historic comeback, LeBron would be MVP for sure, and I'd win $12,100. That would sure soften the blow!

Yeah this one seems to have the best available odds, still not 100% they'll let me parlay both. It looks it so far, as it would usually say you can't as soon as you add them together. I don't have an online account, but I'll be going in tomorrow to lay down some cash if I can. At $12,000 I might almost be cheering the Heat...lol.

[therealtruth]

I don't think necessarily the Heat are playing bad basketball. It's just we've made the right adjustments and what they're doing is just not working against our adjustments. For instance in game 4 they were hoping to play better defense against us. Instead we played much better defense and took their confidence.

[Emperor]

Gonna take the safer route and betting for Spurs to cover. Have a feeling it'll be another blowout considering what we've seen past two games. Miami gonna lay down and get ready for Melo.

[Knoxxx]

Can I place a parlay bet online? I am thinking put down $200 that would pay me $24,000 in LeBron insurance.

Let's be real there is not such thing as a Heat "team." We are playing a one man team called LeBron.

[Kidd K]

Only David Stern could make it happen, and he's busy covering up his loose ends so Sterling doesn't embarrass his ass.

We're fine.

[bigfan]

they aren't dead yet, we need to stomp the life out of em Sunday and get some payback.

[Spurs9]

They also had less than a 1% chance of winning game 6 at the last 25 seconds. I'm not counting out any possibility until we are holding that trophy.

[xmas1997]

If the Heat win it all now, then correct me if I am wrong, they will be the first team to do that after being down 3-1, thus making history. Maybe James thinks he has the Spurs right where he wants them, suckered into over confidence.
I prefer to go with TD, that the Spurs will get it done this time around, and that last years championship really belongs to them.

[eric365]

I started to bet on the Heat before the series and after each spurs win.

I'll get over 2000$ if the Heat win. That's a good insurance.
I wish I could combine Heat win and Lebron Finals MVP but I haven't found where to do it.

[cjw]

Not a perfect comp, but losing this series would be akin to beating a team 3-1 in the regular season (games 1-4), including two in a blowout, and then getting swept in an old school style 5 game series.

[hitmantb]

31-0

Anything is possible, all records are meant to be broken.

Not saying it will, after 6 just don't want to believe anything until we have trophy in hand!

[pjjrfan]

tim Duncan just said it ain't over till it's over, I'm with him. I just think that they will come out with the proper perspective and pull out a win tomorrow. but until they win that 4th game Im nervous.

[xmas1997]

tim Duncan just said it ain't over till it's over, I'm with him. I just think that they will come out with the proper perspective and pull out a win tomorrow. but until they win that 4th game Im nervous.

Same here.

[hsxvvd]

I started to bet on the Heat before the series and after each spurs win.

I'll get over 2000$ if the Heat win. That's a good insurance.
I wish I could combine Heat win and Lebron Finals MVP but I haven't found where to do it.

Yeah, it seems as though this is the case :depressed MVP & Finals result can't be combined, and there is nowhere that even offers them together in fixed odds.

Miami to win outright at 11-1 is the best I can find. I think this might be the only way to insure against the heartbreak.

[therealtruth]

they aren't dead yet, we need to stomp the life out of em Sunday and get some payback.

Exactly. I want to blow them out early. Have their starters watch the game end from the bench.

[florige]

tim Duncan just said it ain't over till it's over, I'm with him. I just think that they will come out with the proper perspective and pull out a win tomorrow. but until they win that 4th game Im nervous.



06 and this year Dallas, Ibaka debacle, I think we will be fine. Durant and Westbrook with Ibaka (and legendary Spurs Killer Fisher) was a much scarier situation than this. it's literally LBJ and no one else. I like our odds. If we manage to piss this series away then we deserve to lose tbh.

[TampaDude]

Yeah, it seems as though this is the case :depressed MVP & Finals result can't be combined, and there is nowhere that even offers them together in fixed odds.

Miami to win outright at 11-1 is the best I can find. I think this might be the only way to insure against the heartbreak.

So, they wouldn't let you do that, eh? Yeah, I guess they know if the Heat pulled off the comeback, LeBron would be a lock for MVP, and they don't want to have to pay out 121 to 1 on what is really only 11 to 1 odds. TGTBT.

[exstatic]

That 10% was the number Vegas put on it to get ANY money flowing. That's what Vegas does: set the odds so that the money comes down even, and the losers pay the winners, with the house taking their cut. That means nothing as far as actual PROBABILITY, which I'm sure is much lower.

[gee]

Vegas is fucking dumb

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

$20 down on Miami to win in 7 paying 9 to 1. Paylayed onto Lebron wins MVP 11 to 1. Pays $1980.

I'd give away $20 in a heat beat for us to win it, and if Miami wins it's a lock Lebron wins MVP.


Every time I've tried to make that multi it is telling me I can't combine those two things. I put an emotional insurance bet on Miami at 10/1...

:lol My Cats fan best mate has been paying emotional insurance bets for years, and look how it's worked out for them?! Thankfully he earns a lot of money so the thousands he would have lost by now doesn't hurt him. Did you come up with that term, or did you read it somewhere? He uses the same term.

BTW, wish I could watch this game with you guys! Who thought we'd be seeing this in 2014? :wow

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

That 10% was the number Vegas put on it to get ANY money flowing. That's what Vegas does: set the odds so that the money comes down even, and the losers pay the winners, with the house taking their cut. That means nothing as far as actual PROBABILITY, which I'm sure is much lower.

This.

When Vegas or any bookie bets 90-10 on a two horse race it's a sucker bet. They know who the winner will be.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

bump

[Seefourdc]

Spurs played 2 games of way above average shooting percentage and Heat had 2 games of way below offensive norm production. Regression to mean probably means this series goes to seven. Don't really know if Miami can win 3 straight though.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Spurs played 2 games of way above average shooting percentage and Heat had 2 games of way below offensive norm production. Regression to mean probably means this series goes to seven. Don't really know if Miami can win 3 straight though.

:lol

Have you been watching the series? If so, you don't seem to understand basketball.

[MI21]

:lol My Cats fan best mate has been paying emotional insurance bets for years, and look how it's worked out for them?! Thankfully he earns a lot of money so the thousands he would have lost by now doesn't hurt him. Did you come up with that term, or did you read it somewhere? He uses the same term.

BTW, wish I could watch this game with you guys! Who thought we'd be seeing this in 2014? :wow

haha I thought I coined it, I cop it from mates all the time until I started calling it emotional insurance :lol

Man it's unbelievable.... Fortunately I did have one mate around who is a Spurs fan so I could enjoy it with a like minded person.