The 12 Races That Will Decide the Senate Majority

[Nbadan]

The battle this November will be for control of the Senate. What we are left with is 12 races that can be considered truly competitive -- meaning that either one (or both) of the national parties and/or the various outside groups have or will spend money in them. The races are tipped heavily toward Democratic-held seats; 10 of the 12 contests -- including the six most vulnerable -- are currently in Democratic hands. Of the 12 states, Mitt Romney carried nine of them in 2012 -- with Michigan, Iowa and Colorado the trio that went for President Obama.

12. Michigan (Democratic-controlled): Republican Terri Lynn Land was not the first -- or even second -- choice of many Republican strategists. But she has raised money at an impressive pace and kept this race close against Rep. Gary Peters. The question for Land is whether she can sustain it when media and voter attention ramps up in the fall. Land's campaign has protected her very carefully so far; it will be harder to do that in the stretch run with multiple daily campaign events and periodic debates. (Previous ranking: 9)

The DATA from Real Clear Politics

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/mi/michigan_senate_land_vs_peters-3820.html

Magellan Strategies (R) 6/5 - 6/8 753 LV 3.6 50 41 Peters +9
Mitchell Research 6/6 - 6/6 961 LV 3.2 45 42 Peters +3
Detroit News 5/20 - 5/22 600 LV 4.0 40 35 Peters +5


HuffPost Model Estimate

Gary Peters 48.4%
Terri Lynn Land 41.8%
Undecided

CONFIDENCE OF LEAD The probability that Peters leads Land is 94.3%.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-michigan-senate-land-vs-peters#!

[Nbadan]

11. Georgia (Republican-controlled): We’re still awaiting the results of the Republican primary runoff on July 22 (longest runoff ever). Businessman David Perdue beat Rep. Jack Kingston 31 percent to 26 percent on primary day, but there are lots of voters up for grabs, and third-place finisher Karen Handel is backing Kingston -- thanks in no small part to Perdue’s careless decision to insult her level of schooling. We’re not sure which man gives the GOP a better shot against Democrat Michelle Nunn -- we'd lean toward Perdue -- but the Democrat is still polling well and raising big money. This remains, surprisingly, a legitimate Democratic target.

As soon as the GOP comes up with a challenger to Nunn we will take a closer look at this race....

[Nbadan]

10. Iowa (Democrat controlled): Republicans got a big break when state Sen. Joni Ernst routed the competition in the GOP Senate primary, and since then several polls have shown the race with Rep. Bruce Braley (D) to be something close to a toss-up. We still think Ernst probably got a bounce from the big primary win, but this is a swing state, and as long as she runs a credible campaign, the GOP should have a good chance in an open-seat race.

The DATA from Real Clear Politics

Quinnipiac 6/12 - 6/16 1277 RV 2.7 44 40 Braley +4
Loras College 6/4 - 6/5 600 LV 4.0 42 48 Ernst +6
Rasmussen Reports 6/4 - 6/5 750 LV 4.0 44 45 Ernst +1

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html

A truly close race but many pollsters are saying Ernst got a post primary bounce that won't last....we'll see...Joni needs to buy a vowel...democrats to lost...

[Nbadan]

9. Colorado (Democrate controlled): While most people look at the North Carolina race as the one on which Senate control might swing, this race between Sen. Mark Udall (D) and Rep. Cory Gardner (R) could easily fit that bill too. Polling done by Quinnipiac in late April showed the race a dead heat and both sides acknowledge the race is and will stay close. Udall is on TV now bashing Gardner as too conservative -- particularly on abortion -- and Democrats think Gardner's record is full of bad votes.

The DATA from Real Clear Politics

Magellan Strategies (R) 4/14 - 4/15 717 LV 3.7 45 42 Udall +3
Quinnipiac 4/15 - 4/21 1298 RV 2.7 45 44 Udall +1
PPP (D) 3/13 - 3/16 568 RV 4.1 42 40 Udall +2

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/co/colorado_senate_gardner_vs_udall-3845.html

When Mark Udall began this cycle, most analysts thought that he was invulnerable. But his approval ratings have sunk along with the president’s. Compounding matters, Rep. Cory Gardner, a rising star in the state Republican Party, changed his mind and opted to challenge Udall in the general election. Udall had hoped to face Bennet’s 2010 opponent, Ken Buck, but now will draw a top tier challenger. The polls have Udall narrowly ahead, but well under 50 percent. This is very much a tossup.

[Nbadan]

8. Alaska (Democrat controlled):Conservative blogger Erick Erickson this week endorsed Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell (R), giving the long-struggling candidate a much-needed boost. But it's not going to change the fact that former attorney general Dan Sullivan is the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Sullivan has both establishment (American Crossroads) and tea party (Club for Growth) money in his corner and is well on his way to a fall showdown against Sen. Mark Begich (D).

The DATA from Real Clear Politics

Alaska Senate - Sullivan vs. Begich
Poll Date Sample Sullivan (R) Begich (D) Spread
RCP Average 3/19 - 5/11 -- 42.3 42.3 Tie
PPP (D)** 5/8 - 5/11 582 RV 37 42 Begich +5
Magellan Strategies (R) 4/14 - 4/14 603 LV 46 41 Sullivan +5
Rasmussen Reports 3/19 - 3/20 750 LV 44 44 Tie

Alaska Senate - Treadwell vs. Begich
Poll Date Sample Begich (D) Treadwell (R) Spread
RCP Average 3/19 - 5/11 -- 42.0 40.0 Begich +2.0
PPP (D)** 5/8 - 5/11 582 RV 41 33 Begich +8
Rasmussen Reports 3/19 - 3/20 750 LV 43 47 Treadwell +4

Alaska Senate - Miller vs. Begich
Poll Date Sample Begich (D) Miller (R) Spread
RCP Average 3/19 - 5/11 -- 46.0 32.5 Begich +13.5
PPP (D)** 5/8 - 5/11 582 RV 43 27 Begich +16
Rasmussen Reports 3/19 - 3/20 750 LV 49 38 Begich +11

Begich's to lose...

[Nbadan]

7. Kentucky (Republican controlled): Republicans are feeling more confident about McConnell's chances following the Republican leader's convincing primary victory last month and their sense that the GOP is quickly uniting behind him. And, President Obama didn't do Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes any favors with his announcement on power plants earlier this month. But, as we have written in this space, McConnell's numbers suggest his vote ceiling is very low. And, in a cycle where they have very few opportunities, Democrats will pore everything they have into this one.


The DATA from Real Clear Politics

Magellan Strategies (R) 6/4 - 6/5 808 LV 3.5 46 49 Grimes +3
Rasmussen Reports 5/28 - 5/29 750 LV 4.0 48 41 McConnell +7
Wenzel Strategies (R) 5/23 - 5/24 608 LV 4.0 47 44 McConnell +3
Courier-Journal/SurveyUSA* 5/14 - 5/16 1475 LV 2.6 42 43 Grimes +1

The problem for Democrats is that the coal mining areas of the 5th have steadily drifted away from them over the past decade. Sen. Rand Paul owes much of his 2010 victory to outsized Republican margins in the area, margins that were matched by Republican presidential candidates in 2008 and 2012. At the same time, Democrats have managed to enjoy continued success at the local level, and hold most statewide offices.

That encapsulates the million-dollar question for 2014, when the very unpopular Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, will face off against Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. If Grimes can push into the historic Democratic base in coal country, this election will probably stay close. If not, the 44 percent of the vote that Grimes is currently receiving will probably represent something of a ceiling for her.

[Nbadan]

6. Arkansas (Democrat controlled): Republican Rep. Tom Cotton's campaign released an internal poll claiming a lead over Sen. Mark Pryor (D). The release was meant to counteract a growing narrative that Pryor is not nearly as vulnerable as he once seemed. But the most notable part of the survey was in the trend line: Cotton was polling the race in February in 2013, when he was s till a brand new member of the House. The revelation probably won't help Cotton in his chief task right now: Humanizing himself and showing voters that he's not just a super-ambitious pol championed by national conservative groups.


The DATA from Real Clear Politics

Magellan Strategies (R) 6/4 - 6/5 755 LV 3.6 45 49 Cotton +4
Rasmussen Reports 5/27 - 5/28 750 LV 4.0 43 47 Cotton +4
NBC News/Marist 4/30 - 5/4 876 RV 3.3 51 40 Pryor +11
PPP (D) 4/25 - 4/27 840 RV 3.4 43 42 Pryor +1

Pryor finds himself challenged by freshman Rep. Tom Cotton, one of the NRSC’s strongest recruits. Cotton brings a sterling resume – he’s a former Army captain and Harvard Law School graduate – as well as the benefit of having represented southern Arkansas in Congress, which is a swing area of the state where Democrats must over-perform in order to win. A recent spate of polling has shown Pryor ahead. He’s still at only 44 percent in the RCP Average, and the recent PPP poll shows the president’s job approval an awful 13 percent among undecided voters, suggesting that Pryor will have a tough time converting them to his cause. Still, his campaign is showing some signs of life that weren’t really there a month ago.

[Nbadan]

5. North Carolina (Democrat controlled): Pryor finds himself challenged by freshman Rep. Tom Cotton, one of the NRSC’s strongest recruits. Cotton brings a sterling resume – he’s a former Army captain and Harvard Law School graduate – as well as the benefit of having represented southern Arkansas in Congress, which is a swing area of the state where Democrats must over-perform in order to win. A recent spate of polling has shown Pryor ahead. He’s still at only 44 percent in the RCP Average, and the recent PPP poll shows the president’s job approval an awful 13 percent among undecided voters, suggesting that Pryor will have a tough time converting them to his cause. Still, his campaign is showing some signs of life that weren’t really there a month ago.

The DATA from Real Clear Politics

PPP (D) 6/12 - 6/15 1076 RV 3.0 42 38 Hagan +4
Magellan Strategies (R) 6/5 - 6/8 700 LV 3.7 47 46 Hagan +1
Civitas (R) 5/20 - 5/22 600 RV 4.0 41 46 Tillis +5

Jesse Helms was the first Republican to succeed in bringing those conservatives into the GOP while, at the same time, northerners flocking to the Research Triangle Park brought an even more pronounced Republican bent to the state. For a while it looked like North Carolina would become a solidly red state.

But this didn’t happen, as moderate governors like Jim Hunt and Mike Easley kept some of the conservative Democrats in the fold, while suburbanites around RTP drifted toward the Democratic Party. In 2002, Elizabeth Dole successfully held Helms’ seat against Democrat Erskine Bowles. Dole was fairly quiet in the Senate, and drew what was thought to be a fairly mediocre opponent in state Sen. Kay Hagan. Dole led Hagan handily for much of 2008, often breaking 50 percent in the polls. But Hagan pulled close after the Democratic convention, and then broke the race open after the financial collapse. She led the Democratic ticket in the state, running ahead of both Barack Obama and gubernatorial candidate Bev Perdue.

Hagan herself has had a reasonably uneventful term. She faces two basic challenges. First, she has mostly backed the national Democratic agenda, and second, she can’t rely upon the surge in African-American turnout that accompanied Obama’s run for office and helped to propel her across the finish line. Democrats attempted to manipulate the Republican primary to increase the chances the GOP would elect a candidate who would implode, but voters nominated House Speaker Thom Tillis. He is the face of an unpopular legislature, but neither Obama nor Hagan is particularly popular in the state either. Polls show a tight race, but Hagan is below 45 percent, and is in deep trouble.

[Nbadan]

4. Louisiana (Democrat controlled): Expect Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) to emphasize (and reemphasize) her role as head of the Senate Energy Committee for the rest of the campaign. She passed a bill out of her committee this week that would bypass President Obama and approve the Keystone XL pipeline. The question is whether the emphasis on energy will be enough to overcome a capable Republican opponent in Rep. Bill Cassidy in a state where the president is deeply unpopular. Those are big obstacles to overcome.

The DATA from Real Clear Politics

Magellan Strategies (R) 6/5 - 6/8 719 LV 50 44 Cassidy +6
CEA/Hickman Analytics (D) 2/17 - 2/24 404 LV 46 42 Cassidy +4
PPP (D) 2/6 - 2/9 635 RV 44 45 Landrieu +1

As the Democratic stranglehold on the South began collapsing, Louisiana began electing Republicans, first to Congress, then as governor. But the state resisted sending a Republican to the Senate. There were near misses: Democrat John Breaux won in 1986 by just six points, while Mary Landrieu’s 1996 margin of victory was only 5,000 votes. By the time David Vitter won his seat in 2004, Louisiana was the last Southern state that hadn’t sent a Republican to the Senate.

Landrieu, the daughter of former New Orleans Mayor Moon Landrieu, has won her re-election bids by increasing margins each go-around: She won in 2002 by three points and in 2008 by seven. But as Southern whites have continued to gravitate toward the Republican Party, she’s found herself with less and less room for error. Her 2008 win was largely fueled by the Democratic wave and massive turnout among African-Americans. It’s increasingly difficult to see how she replicates that victory in a midterm environment.

[Nbadan]

3. Montana (Democrat controlled): Both appointed Sen. John Walsh (D) and Rep. Steve Daines (R) easily dispatched nominal primary challenges on June 3 and formally began a race that both campaigns had already been waging for months. There's very little public polling in the race but the general consensus is that Daines starts the general election with an edge and is likely to benefit from a national political environment benefiting Republicans.

The DATA from Real Clear Politics

Rasmussen Reports 6/9 - 6/10 750 LV 4.0 53 35 Daines +18
CEA/Hickman Analytics (D) 4/24 - 4/30 400 LV 4.9 49 37 Daines +12

Max Baucus was elected to the House from the old 1st District (which covered the western half of the state) in 1974. Four years later, after the death of Sen. Lee Metcalf, Baucus defeated appointed Sen. Paul Hatfield in the Democratic primary, before winning the general election by almost a dozen points. Baucus generally avoided a strong challenge, save for 1996 when then-Lt. Gov. Denny Rehberg held the senator to under 50 percent of the vote.

Baucus announced his retirement last year, and most observers expected Schweitzer to replace him. But Schweitzer opted not to run, and the Democrats’ positioning for the seat declined markedly. Their hopes rose when Baucus was appointed ambassador to China, allowing Gov. Steve Bullock to appoint Lt. Gov. John Walsh to the seat. But Walsh still trails Rep. Steve Daines in polling by a substantial margin.

[Nbadan]

2. West Virginia (Democrat controlled): Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) likely wrapped up this Senate seat in November 2012 when she abruptly announced for the seat even though Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) had yet to announce his retirement. Democrats eventually convinced Secretary of State Natalie Tennant to run but she started the race at a distinct disadvantage because of Capito's early start and the dislike toward the national Democratic party in the state. A recent non-partisan poll put Capito up 49 percent to 38 percent. That seems about right.

The West Virginia Poll 5/19 - 5/22 400 LV 4.9 49 38 Capito +11
Rasmussen Reports 5/14 - 5/15 750 LV 4.0 48 39 Capito +9

Republicans have come close to winning a Senate seat in West Virginia only twice in the past half-century: in 1978, when Gov. Arch Moore nearly defeated Sen. Jennings Randolph, and in 1984 when John Raese lost to Gov. Jay Rockefeller by four points. Rockefeller was always more liberal than your typical West Virginia Democrat – he actually lost a gubernatorial race in 1972 against Moore – and the president’s unpopularity made him an iffy bet for re-election in 2014. He opted to retire, and Republicans have turned to Moore’s daughter, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, as their 2014 standard-bearer. Democrats have fielded a credible candidate in Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, but it remains to be seen whether she can close the double-digit polling gap that has opened up.

[Nbadan]

1. South Dakota (Democrat controlled): The Jackrabbit State remains our most likely seat to flip. But let’s make the case for this being in-play. Former governor Mike Rounds (R) remains a strong favorite against Democrat Rick Weiland, but this race also includes former three-term GOP (U.S.) senator Larry Pressler and former Republican state senator Gordon Howie (not to be confused with Gordie Howe) running as independents. Neither has raised any money, but maybe Pressler (and to a lesser extent, Howie) steal enough Rounds' votes that this is in-play. Weiland can hope.

Rasmussen Reports 6/4 - 6/5 750 LV 4.0 44 29 18 Rounds +15
SurveyUSA* 5/6 - 5/10 504 LV 4.5 44 30 17 Rounds +14

[m>s]

need to pull it off so we can start the fascist right wing takeover