Tim_5rings
06-26-2014, 02:24 PM
http://grantland.com/features/nba-draft-crapshoot-repick-1995/
Vey long but very interesting & funny analyse of each draft since 1995
here a little shot:
That’s 57 picks in all. Twelve of 57 were drafted first overall; 18 of 57 were drafted 2-through-5; 16 of 57 were drafted 6-through-14; and 10 of 57 were drafted 15th or later. Even if you don’t land a top-five pick, there remains a 40 percent chance of drafting a top-three player. If you don’t get a top-three pick, you maintain about a SIXTY percent chance of landing one of the best three players. But hey, keep tanking your buns off, everybody.
then:
Let’s say you’re running the Jazz, picking fifth on Thursday and feeling confident that Wiggins, Parker, Embiid and Exum won’t be there. You’re looking at Vonleh, Smart, Gordon, Randle and Doug McDermott, who should never go fifth, but you’re the Jazz and you love white guys more than Justin Bieber loves hooking up with backup dancers. Recent history suggests that you have only a 20 percent chance of picking the right guy EVEN WITH THE FIRST CHOICE OF THOSE FIVE GUYS. Actually, it’s just as likely that one of the next three guys (Elfrid Payton, Gary Harris, Nik Stauskas) will become better pros than everyone you’ve been studying so painstakingly.
and each year review (exemple Draft 1997)
1997 Draft
SCRAP Rating: 3.5 out of 10
1. Tim Duncan (1)*****
2. Tracy McGrady (9)***
3. Chauncey Billups (3)**
4. Keith Van Horn (2)
5. Stephen Jackson (42)
6. Tim Thomas (7)
Lottery Whiffs: Adonal Foyle (8), Tariq Abdul-Wahad (11)
Lottery Rotation Guys: Antonio Daniels (4), Tony Battie (5), Ron Mercer (6), Danny Fortson (10), Austin Croshere (12), Derek Anderson (13)
Rotation Guys: Mo Taylor (14), Kelvin Cato (15), Brevin Knight (16), Scot Pollard (19), Anthony Parker (21), Bobby Jackson (23), Alvin Williams (47), Mark Blount (54)
Breakdown: Duncan, T-Mac, Billups … and three picks later, we’re at Tim Thomas? Now that’s a top-heavy draft. Duncan, McGrady and Billups were 1997’s only future All-Stars — between them, they have a better résumé (combined rings, All-Star appearances, All-NBA appearances, win shares, salaries earned or whatever you want to use), than any three guys from any post-1994 draft except for LeBron-Wade-Bosh. You know what really kills me? The Celtics lost the Duncan lottery, ended up with the third and sixth picks, took Billups third, passed on T-Mac at six, then traded Billups after 51 games. There’s an alternate universe where we could have had Billups, T-Mac and Pierce. It’s true.
(Translation: I STILL HATE YOU, RICK PITINO! YOUR GUTS ARE STILL HATED!!!!!!)
Vey long but very interesting & funny analyse of each draft since 1995
here a little shot:
That’s 57 picks in all. Twelve of 57 were drafted first overall; 18 of 57 were drafted 2-through-5; 16 of 57 were drafted 6-through-14; and 10 of 57 were drafted 15th or later. Even if you don’t land a top-five pick, there remains a 40 percent chance of drafting a top-three player. If you don’t get a top-three pick, you maintain about a SIXTY percent chance of landing one of the best three players. But hey, keep tanking your buns off, everybody.
then:
Let’s say you’re running the Jazz, picking fifth on Thursday and feeling confident that Wiggins, Parker, Embiid and Exum won’t be there. You’re looking at Vonleh, Smart, Gordon, Randle and Doug McDermott, who should never go fifth, but you’re the Jazz and you love white guys more than Justin Bieber loves hooking up with backup dancers. Recent history suggests that you have only a 20 percent chance of picking the right guy EVEN WITH THE FIRST CHOICE OF THOSE FIVE GUYS. Actually, it’s just as likely that one of the next three guys (Elfrid Payton, Gary Harris, Nik Stauskas) will become better pros than everyone you’ve been studying so painstakingly.
and each year review (exemple Draft 1997)
1997 Draft
SCRAP Rating: 3.5 out of 10
1. Tim Duncan (1)*****
2. Tracy McGrady (9)***
3. Chauncey Billups (3)**
4. Keith Van Horn (2)
5. Stephen Jackson (42)
6. Tim Thomas (7)
Lottery Whiffs: Adonal Foyle (8), Tariq Abdul-Wahad (11)
Lottery Rotation Guys: Antonio Daniels (4), Tony Battie (5), Ron Mercer (6), Danny Fortson (10), Austin Croshere (12), Derek Anderson (13)
Rotation Guys: Mo Taylor (14), Kelvin Cato (15), Brevin Knight (16), Scot Pollard (19), Anthony Parker (21), Bobby Jackson (23), Alvin Williams (47), Mark Blount (54)
Breakdown: Duncan, T-Mac, Billups … and three picks later, we’re at Tim Thomas? Now that’s a top-heavy draft. Duncan, McGrady and Billups were 1997’s only future All-Stars — between them, they have a better résumé (combined rings, All-Star appearances, All-NBA appearances, win shares, salaries earned or whatever you want to use), than any three guys from any post-1994 draft except for LeBron-Wade-Bosh. You know what really kills me? The Celtics lost the Duncan lottery, ended up with the third and sixth picks, took Billups third, passed on T-Mac at six, then traded Billups after 51 games. There’s an alternate universe where we could have had Billups, T-Mac and Pierce. It’s true.
(Translation: I STILL HATE YOU, RICK PITINO! YOUR GUTS ARE STILL HATED!!!!!!)