Hey Manny

[1369]

Where do your spidey-senses tell you this one is going? (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/231837.shtml?)

[1369]

Latest and greatest...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W5+gif/204602W_sm.gif

[SWC Bonfire]

Not a chance it hits Texas with this bad-ass High we have now. My money's on Biloxi, MS.

[CharlieMac]

Fizzle.

[Horry For 3!]

It won't hit Texas.

[MannyIsGod]

The models have it hitting the central gulf. The high really isn't the issue. It is a trought that will develop sometime early next week. So the models say.

Anyhow, Florida will get hit for sure, but after that the central and eastern gulf shores have the most to worry about. Texas looks ok for now, but 5 days away is a really long time and we could easily see a situation where it comes this way.

[CharlieMac]

The models have it hitting the central gulf. The high really isn't the issue. It is a trought that will develop sometime early next week. So the models say.

Anyhow, Florida will get hit for sure, but after that the central and eastern gulf shores have the most to worry about. Texas looks ok for now, but 5 days away is a really long time and we could easily see a situation where it comes this way.

[samikeyp]

I just find this ironically amusing.

http://www.classic45s.com/images/katrinawaves1_ps.jpg

[MannyIsGod]

I'd be really fucking worried if I was in the Florida panhandle. In fact, if I hadn't moved, I would after this week.

Katrina is going to get pretty big and mean over the Gulf as long as the shear stays down, and it's probably going to make a turn and head straight for the Florida panhandle. I feel bad for those people man, seriously.

[MannyIsGod]

I don't know what the NHC is thinking, but someone better start telling the people in New Orleans and Mississippi to get ready for a hurricane. Everymodel that has started to come out is taking this storm much further west than before. And it is going to be a monster.

[Kip Fanatic]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFVS.JPG

As of 2 something today 8/26/05.

[Manu20]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif

[MannyIsGod]

You know, if the models are right on this storm, you can say hello to $3 across the entire country.

[MannyIsGod]

Fuck, the track furthest to the east is the NHC track! The next advisory will have the track shift very much to the west.

[samikeyp]

someone a while back brought up the parallels between that FX movie "Oil Storm" and the current gas situation....in that movie...a refinery was struck by a hurricane just outside New Orleans.

[MannyIsGod]

The oil platforms in the gulf are the issue here. The storm is going to go over the part of the gulf that produces the most oil. At the least, this is going to stop production for a couple of days but at the most it is going to effect production on those platforms for some time.

The funny thing is oil finished lower today on the markets because traders were confident it was going to pass to the east of that region.

HAHA, suckas.

[Kip Fanatic]

How much money does President Booch make off of the oil thang?

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.wunderground.com/education/steveg_blog/earlyk7.png

[MannyIsGod]

And there they go updating the track.

[Manu20]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200512.disc.html


Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 14


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2005



most recent reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate the central pressure has dropped to 965 mb...but the
flight-level winds have only increased to 94 kt at 700 mb...which
is about an 85-kt surface wind. A 1701z dropsonde in the northeast
quadrant reported 85 kt surface winds. Therefore...the initial
intensity is held at 85 kt for this advisory...even though the
central pressure supports about 95-kt surface winds. The eyewall in
the northwest quadrant has remained open...probably due to dry air
entrainment...and this may partly explain the difference between
the observed winds and what the central pressure typically
supports.
The initial motion is west-southwestward...or 255 degress...at 07
kt. Katrina remains caught between the northeasterly flow on the
west side of an inverted trough over the western Caribbean Sea and
the northeasterly flow in the southeast quadrant of the subtropical
ridge located to the north and northwest of Katrina. Both the ridge
and trough are forecast to slowly weaken over the next 12-24 hours
...Which allow the hurricane to turn more westward...and most of
the NHC model guidance agrees on that scenario. After 24 hours...
the models are in general agreement on a shortwave trough currently
over the northern and Central Plains states to gradually dig
southeastward toward the central and western Gulf of Mexico and
erode the ridge...which allows Katrina to move northward by 72
hours. As a result...the models have shifted significantly westward
and are now in better agreement. This has resulted in the official
forecast track being shifted about 150 nmi west of the previous
track...on the east side of the guidance envelope. However...
projected landfall is still about 72 hours away...so further
modifications in the forecast track are possible.

Katrina is expected to be moving over the Gulf loop current after 36
hours...which when combined with decreasing vertical shear...should
allow the hurricane to reach category four status before landfall
occurs. This is consistent with the SHIPS and GFDL models...which
bring Katrina up to 118 kt. The FSU superensemble model is more
robust and brings Katrina up to 129 kt just before landfall.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/2100z 24.8n 82.9w 85 kt
12hr VT 27/0600z 24.9n 83.9w 90 kt
24hr VT 27/1800z 25.2n 85.1w 95 kt
36hr VT 28/0600z 25.8n 86.4w 100 kt
48hr VT 28/1800z 26.9n 87.7w 105 kt
72hr VT 29/1800z 30.0n 88.5w 115 kt
96hr VT 30/1800z 35.0n 86.5w 35 kt...inland
120hr VT 31/1800z 40.5n 79.0w 25 kt...dissipating inland


$$

[tw05baller]

http://www.wunderground.com/education/steveg_blog/earlyk7.png

who in the hell would track it to mexico, or is that line for something else?

[Horry For 3!]

Florida got hit last night.

[Jekka]

That line is the extrapolation of the current course. Where it would hit if it didn't change direction at all.

[tw05baller]

ohhh