NBA deals affect on the Spurs and Kawhi

[in my eyes 911]

http://www.poundingtherock.com/2014/10/7/6925405/nba-tv-deal-affects-spurs-kawhi-leonard

[ElNono]

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Grammar Nononazi...

[in my eyes 911]

Here's a cookie...

[anakha]

An interesting point raised in the article is the impact of the rising cap on Euros stashed overseas.

We could be seeing another wave of accomplished overseas players get lured by the bigger salary offers that may be available with the cap jump.

[ElNono]

Grammar Nononazi...

:wakeup

[Chinook]

Couple things about the article.

First is that the cap will see its jump in 2017-2018 not 2016-2017. The new deal kicks in two years from now, but the cap is calculated from the previous years' revenue (which is why the league has a moratorium period for those who didn't know). So teams like the Wizards or Knicks won't get to ride the wave, while teams like the Spurs will potentially have room for two max contracts (on top of keeping Parker, Leonard, Green and the guys on rookie deals). Pop and RC played this situation much better than those other teams did.

Second, the increasing cap probably won't affect the Spurs' offer for Green. They really don't have anything else to spend the money on for the next two years. I think it's much more likely that Danny takes a five-year deal than a one- or two-year deal.

Third, the Spurs will do whatever it takes to get Kawhi under contract for five years. I think they would max him out, even at the risk of him getting the Rose-max (since Kawhi would have to win MVP to become eligible for it now). It's simply a matter of them wanting the cap space to spend on a free agent next off-season. However, signing Mills pretty much killed the Spurs' chance to have a max slot for next summer, so the incentive to play for cap space is a lot smaller now than it used to be. I don't see any way Kawhi takes a short-term deal unless he becomes a legit superstar next season. He'll take a five-year max and run, especially if a PO and kicker were added.

Fourth, this was exactly the thing I was talking about in my Pick-One thread. A Parsons deal will look pretty run-of-the-mill in a few years. It makes sense in my mind for the team to look into stealing an RFA from another club by offering a huge deal. It's gonna be harder to stop teams from matching offer sheets now, but some RFAs will still change hands. Kyle O'Quinn remains at the top of my list for those players.

Fifth, we may see the Arenas rule come back into play relatively soon. Eye-balling it, a max for an Arenas FA signed next summer is about $45M/4. But those last two years would be for $16M and $17M. So that would still be a prohibitive contract for a team to match, but for the offering team, it would actually be a pretty benign deal. I really see anyone who'd get a deal that big, but a player like Glenn Rice could be in line for a smaller Arenas deal if he takes his SL performance to the fall league.

[boutons_deux]

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[exstatic]

affect

http://grammar.yourdictionary.com/style-and-usage/affect-effect-grammar.html

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[wildchild]

I don't see any way Kawhi takes a short-term deal unless he becomes a legit superstar next season.

Or after another season playing low minutes and not being one of the centerpieces of the offense.

Leonard said he wants more minutes and a bigger offensive role ("I’m going to have to get consistent minutes to play at a consistent level like that... It’s just in order to get me more involved in the offense, that’s what I go by...I mean, my role was supposed to expand last year and we played pretty much the same basketball.") but I don't think that's gonna happen under Spurs offensive system.

Obviously, money is always the big reason, I'm just saying young-player's frustration could be a factor in decision making.

[Richie]

First is that the cap will see its jump in 2017-2018 not 2016-2017. The new deal kicks in two years from now, but the cap is calculated from the previous years' revenue (which is why the league has a moratorium period for those who didn't know). So teams like the Wizards or Knicks won't get to ride the wave, while teams like the Spurs will potentially have room for two max contracts (on top of keeping Parker, Leonard, Green and the guys on rookie deals). Pop and RC played this situation much better than those other teams did.

The cap will almost certainly not make a $25m jump in a single season. Most teams will have an interest in allowing the cap to rise in time for the summer of 2016 because of the exceptional free agent class.

This is of course assuming that the TV deal is signed to pay the same every year. It could be partially backloaded to help smooth the cap increases.

[Richie]

Also, Kawhi isn't so good that he can risk signing a short deal and hoping for a bigger max when the cap jumps.

Imaging if the cap was jumping this year and Rose had signed a 2 year deal in 2012 before his ACL injury. How much would he get this summer? $10m per? It'd be a whole lot less than the $60m he's guaranteed over the next 3 years, and he was a league MVP.

[wildchild]

Also, Kawhi isn't so good that he can risk signing a short deal and hoping for a bigger max when the cap jumps.

So the FO try to convice him to wait and test the FA because he's enough good to take the risk of playing a year without extension and still sign a max offer next summer, but he isn't good to take the risk of playing two years until new cap operates...Just hope they've better arguments than this...

[Richie]

So the FO try to convice him to wait and test the FA because he's enough good to take the risk of playing a year without extension and still sign a max offer next summer, but he isn't good to take the risk of playing two years until new cap operates...Just hope they've better arguments than this...

The FO don't need to do any convincing whatsoever. They can just play out the year and let him become a restricted free agent. If he has any wish to wait for the cap rise, he can't take an extension because it requires to be the max for maximum years.

There are so many other aspects that are different between to two situations the comparison doesn't make sense.

[wildchild]

They can just play out the year and let him become a restricted free agent.
I know that but I'm not sure if the FO don't want make Kawhi part of the process and try to convince him to wait, explaining why the extension isn't (supposed) good for the overall team, the team cap space, etc.
I mean, if the Spurs don't want extend him now and the player wants the extension like he said, they'd try to convince him and keep a good relationship with the player.