benstanfield
11-08-2014, 01:06 PM
Duncan - Splitter - Diaw is one of the better 3 big rotations in the league and I sort of understand the motivation behind the other bigs:
Bonner: Stretch 4 for Ibaka time
Daye: Insurance if Bonner is done (which it looks like he might be)
Baynes: 4th big for the Dwights/Cousins of the league (although we saw how that worked out)
Ayres: Slightly more versatile physically than Baynes, can conceivably guard 4/5 :lmao
When/if all 15 of the roster is healthy, Kyle will be in a suit while one of Daye/Bonner/Ayres/Baynes will join him with Becky and Chip. At first glance it seems like Daye is the obvious choice, Pop's love affair with Bonner and so on. But it seems to me that Pop is legitimately giving Daye a chance to take Bonner's spot in the active rotation, Ayres and Baynes filling different niches whereas Bonner and Daye are basically the same. Bonner has played 30 minutes in 4 games, getting 2 DNPs, and has been basically invisible. Daye has played 38 minutes with only 1 DNP and has been, well, Austin Daye.
Here is a player comparison: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=bonnema01&y1=2015&p2=dayeau01&y2=2015
What immediately jumps out to me is how bad both have been. Bonner's may be small sample size, but there is something to be said for the fact that Daye actually will shoot the ball. Matt Bonner has been basically a non-entity on offense since last season, just setting screens and providing spacing with his reputation as a shooter. Seriously, how long will it take coaches to catch on to the fact that Bonner is shooting (at a low %) just once every 5 minutes of playing time (this is actually up from last year btw)? Daye seems much more trigger happy, having attempted 21 shots to Bonner's 6. Both have terrible advanced stats (Austin Daye has an ORtg per 100 possessions of 61! Bonner has a PER of 2.3! Daye 2.2!). But it is obvious that Pop has given Daye somewhat of a green light to prove that he can fill the Bonner role.
To be honest, I would give Daye pretty terrible odds and if the team were healthy now he would almost surely be in a suit based on seniority alone. But if 2-3 more of those threes had rattled in and not out, this would be a pretty interesting race. In doling out equal minutes I think Pop is indicating that Bonner's spot on the active roster is not ironclad, and that if one of them can manage to actually move the needle and string together a few good weeks it will be theirs. They are both basically on their last leg as NBA players, Bonner with age and Daye basically at risk of falling out of the league. While they are both stretch fours, they have different skillsets. If Bonner wins out it will be on experience, size, and post defense. If Daye wins out it will be because he proves he can actually shoot the ball like they say he can and can hold his own against PFs defensively, in which case he has way more upside than the Red Rocket. There is a part of me that thinks it is nonsense to imagine Pop giving a vet's spot to a player like Daye, and that this post is useless. But 38 minutes to 30 speaks for itself.
That being said we are only 4 games into the season. I guess I'll have to keep an eye on this.
Bonner: Stretch 4 for Ibaka time
Daye: Insurance if Bonner is done (which it looks like he might be)
Baynes: 4th big for the Dwights/Cousins of the league (although we saw how that worked out)
Ayres: Slightly more versatile physically than Baynes, can conceivably guard 4/5 :lmao
When/if all 15 of the roster is healthy, Kyle will be in a suit while one of Daye/Bonner/Ayres/Baynes will join him with Becky and Chip. At first glance it seems like Daye is the obvious choice, Pop's love affair with Bonner and so on. But it seems to me that Pop is legitimately giving Daye a chance to take Bonner's spot in the active rotation, Ayres and Baynes filling different niches whereas Bonner and Daye are basically the same. Bonner has played 30 minutes in 4 games, getting 2 DNPs, and has been basically invisible. Daye has played 38 minutes with only 1 DNP and has been, well, Austin Daye.
Here is a player comparison: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=bonnema01&y1=2015&p2=dayeau01&y2=2015
What immediately jumps out to me is how bad both have been. Bonner's may be small sample size, but there is something to be said for the fact that Daye actually will shoot the ball. Matt Bonner has been basically a non-entity on offense since last season, just setting screens and providing spacing with his reputation as a shooter. Seriously, how long will it take coaches to catch on to the fact that Bonner is shooting (at a low %) just once every 5 minutes of playing time (this is actually up from last year btw)? Daye seems much more trigger happy, having attempted 21 shots to Bonner's 6. Both have terrible advanced stats (Austin Daye has an ORtg per 100 possessions of 61! Bonner has a PER of 2.3! Daye 2.2!). But it is obvious that Pop has given Daye somewhat of a green light to prove that he can fill the Bonner role.
To be honest, I would give Daye pretty terrible odds and if the team were healthy now he would almost surely be in a suit based on seniority alone. But if 2-3 more of those threes had rattled in and not out, this would be a pretty interesting race. In doling out equal minutes I think Pop is indicating that Bonner's spot on the active roster is not ironclad, and that if one of them can manage to actually move the needle and string together a few good weeks it will be theirs. They are both basically on their last leg as NBA players, Bonner with age and Daye basically at risk of falling out of the league. While they are both stretch fours, they have different skillsets. If Bonner wins out it will be on experience, size, and post defense. If Daye wins out it will be because he proves he can actually shoot the ball like they say he can and can hold his own against PFs defensively, in which case he has way more upside than the Red Rocket. There is a part of me that thinks it is nonsense to imagine Pop giving a vet's spot to a player like Daye, and that this post is useless. But 38 minutes to 30 speaks for itself.
That being said we are only 4 games into the season. I guess I'll have to keep an eye on this.