Lol, harden leads the league in defensive win shares

[RsxPiimp]

James Harden is playing good defense and the Houston Rockets are rolling. The Rockets have one of the league's best defenses, and James Harden leads the league in defensive win shares (not a typo).

Making fun of James Harden's defense is easy. He's been comically bad on many occasions. It's so easy to make fun of Harden's defense that even Harden himself does it.

But something funny is happening this season: Harden is leading the league in defensive win shares. At 1.04, he's ahead of Tim Duncan (1.03) and Kawhi Leonard, Marc Gasol and Trevor Ariza (all at 0.93).


http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/11/23/ ... on-rockets

[djohn2oo8]

Won't last.

[Quadzilla99]

I don't think theres even one person on this forum who knows how thats calculated.

[jimbo]

^ it's not too badDefensive RatingJust as Oliver's Offensive Rating represents points produced by the player per 100 possessions consumed, his Defensive Rating estimates how many points the player allowed per 100 possessions he individually faced while on the court.
The core of the Defensive Rating calculation is the concept of the individual Defensive Stop. Stops take into account the instances of a player ending an opposing possession that are tracked in the boxscore (blocks, steals, and defensive rebounds), in addition to an estimate for the number of forced turnovers and forced misses by the player which aren't captured by steals and blocks.
The formula for Stops is:


Stops = Stops1 + Stops2

where:


Stops1 = STL + BLK * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + DRB * (1 - FMwt)
FMwt = (DFG% * (1 - DOR%)) / (DFG% * (1 - DOR%) + (1 - DFG%) * DOR%)
DOR% = Opponent_ORB / (Opponent_ORB + Team_DRB)
DFG% = Opponent_FGM / Opponent_FGA
Stops2 = (((Opponent_FGA - Opponent_FGM - Team_BLK) / Team_MP) * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + ((Opponent_TOV - Team_STL) / Team_MP)) * MP + (PF / Team_PF) * 0.4 * Opponent_FTA * (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2

Also necessary is the calculation of Stop%, which is the rate at which a player forces a defensive stop as a percentage of individual possessions faced (essentially the inverse of Floor%, but for defenders):


Stop% = (Stops * Opponent_MP) / (Team_Possessions * MP)

With those numbers in hand, individual Defensive Rating can be computed:


DRtg = Team_Defensive_Rating + 0.2 * (100 * D_Pts_per_ScPoss * (1 - Stop%) - Team_Defensive_Rating)

where:


Team_Defensive_Rating = 100 * (Opponent_PTS / Team_Possessions)
D_Pts_per_ScPoss = Opponent_PTS / (Opponent_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2) * Opponent_FTA*0.4)






then

A. 1973-74 to present NBACrediting Defensive Win Shares to players is based on Dean Oliver's Defensive Rating. Defensive Rating is an estimate of the player's points allowed per 100 defensive possessions (please see Oliver's book for further details). Here is a description of the process (once again using LeBron James (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html) in 2008-09 as an example):


Calculate the Defensive Rating for each player. James's Defensive Rating in 2008-09 was 99.1.
Calculate marginal defense for each player. Marginal defense is equal to (player minutes played / team minutes played) * (team defensive possessions) * (1.08 * (league points per possession) - ((Defensive Rating) / 100)). For James this is (3054 / 19780) * 7341 * ((1.08 * 1.083) - (99.1 / 100)) = 202.5. Note that this formula may produce a negative result for some players.
Calculate marginal points per win. Marginal points per win reduces to 0.32 * (league points per game) * ((team pace) / (league pace)). For the 2008-09 Cavaliers this is 0.32 * 100.0 * (88.7 / 91.7) = 30.95.
Credit Defensive Win Shares to the players. Defensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal defense) / (marginal points per win). James gets credit for 202.5 / 30.95 = 6.54 Defensive Win Shares.

[RsxPiimp]

^ it's not too badDefensive RatingJust as Oliver's Offensive Rating represents points produced by the player per 100 possessions consumed, his Defensive Rating estimates how many points the player allowed per 100 possessions he individually faced while on the court.
The core of the Defensive Rating calculation is the concept of the individual Defensive Stop. Stops take into account the instances of a player ending an opposing possession that are tracked in the boxscore (blocks, steals, and defensive rebounds), in addition to an estimate for the number of forced turnovers and forced misses by the player which aren't captured by steals and blocks.
The formula for Stops is:


Stops = Stops1 + Stops2

where:


Stops1 = STL + BLK * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + DRB * (1 - FMwt)
FMwt = (DFG% * (1 - DOR%)) / (DFG% * (1 - DOR%) + (1 - DFG%) * DOR%)
DOR% = Opponent_ORB / (Opponent_ORB + Team_DRB)
DFG% = Opponent_FGM / Opponent_FGA
Stops2 = (((Opponent_FGA - Opponent_FGM - Team_BLK) / Team_MP) * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + ((Opponent_TOV - Team_STL) / Team_MP)) * MP + (PF / Team_PF) * 0.4 * Opponent_FTA * (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2

Also necessary is the calculation of Stop%, which is the rate at which a player forces a defensive stop as a percentage of individual possessions faced (essentially the inverse of Floor%, but for defenders):


Stop% = (Stops * Opponent_MP) / (Team_Possessions * MP)

With those numbers in hand, individual Defensive Rating can be computed:


DRtg = Team_Defensive_Rating + 0.2 * (100 * D_Pts_per_ScPoss * (1 - Stop%) - Team_Defensive_Rating)

where:


Team_Defensive_Rating = 100 * (Opponent_PTS / Team_Possessions)
D_Pts_per_ScPoss = Opponent_PTS / (Opponent_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2) * Opponent_FTA*0.4)






then

A. 1973-74 to present NBACrediting Defensive Win Shares to players is based on Dean Oliver's Defensive Rating. Defensive Rating is an estimate of the player's points allowed per 100 defensive possessions (please see Oliver's book for further details). Here is a description of the process (once again using LeBron James (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html) in 2008-09 as an example):


Calculate the Defensive Rating for each player. James's Defensive Rating in 2008-09 was 99.1.
Calculate marginal defense for each player. Marginal defense is equal to (player minutes played / team minutes played) * (team defensive possessions) * (1.08 * (league points per possession) - ((Defensive Rating) / 100)). For James this is (3054 / 19780) * 7341 * ((1.08 * 1.083) - (99.1 / 100)) = 202.5. Note that this formula may produce a negative result for some players.
Calculate marginal points per win. Marginal points per win reduces to 0.32 * (league points per game) * ((team pace) / (league pace)). For the 2008-09 Cavaliers this is 0.32 * 100.0 * (88.7 / 91.7) = 30.95.
Credit Defensive Win Shares to the players. Defensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal defense) / (marginal points per win). James gets credit for 202.5 / 30.95 = 6.54 Defensive Win Shares.

:lol

[Splits]

:lol

2nded :lol

[100%duncan]

:lol

:lol

[GuerillaBlack]

Won't last.

Of course it won't, but at least he is up there.

[Drachen]

Literally no one would have predicted this, so it is noteworthy. However, is old man Riverwalk at number 2? Fucking crazy.

[m>s]

How

[hyhy]

Shall we make videos of Belinelli defense, parker's heroball, manu step back threes and ridicule them all over the internet?

[Roxsfan]

First- that faggot u-tube clip of Harden's poor D was utter fucking dog shit. Anyone can pick a player and post a shit-ton of their worst moments and make them look like a fuck-tard on D. Besides, he was transitioning from 6th man to starter/star. You want to focus on offense at that point, not D. Tough D is draining and fucks-up your O, yo.

Were there some concerns about his D? Sure.

Has this been addressed? It sure fucking looks like it has.

Will it continue? We shall fucking see.


Go Rockets.

[Killakobe81]

A shitty stat but you could tell coach K got him to try which is half the battle. stupid to compare him to Ariza who guards usually the best opposing player unless it's a PG who Pay Bev usually defends. He has improved and he has the ability to be solid. But the fact he leads those other guys shows the stat is horeshit. He is not a better defender than any of those guys.

[Raven]

he's been solid this year against shitty opposition, but solid nonetheless. Congrats to him for putting the effort.

[Cry Havoc]

A shitty stat but you could tell coach K got him to try which is half the battle. stupid to compare him to Ariza who guards usually the best opposing player unless it's a PG who Pay Bev usually defends. He has improved and he has the ability to be solid. But the fact he leads those other guys shows the stat is horeshit. He is not a better defender than any of those guys.

A lot of stats on their own are pretty bogus, like +/-. But combined with other stats and given time, they do end up painting a much more realistic picture than the traditional "eye-test" that so many people think is accurate.

[GuerillaBlack]

he's been solid this year against shitty opposition, but solid nonetheless. Congrats to him for putting the effort.

Doesn't matter. He use to be terrible against the "shitty" teams.

[DAF86]

First- that faggot u-tube clip of Harden's poor D was utter fucking dog shit. Anyone can pick a player and post a shit-ton of their worst moments and make them look like a fuck-tard on D. Besides, he was transitioning from 6th man to starter/star. You want to focus on offense at that point, not D. Tough D is draining and fucks-up your O, yo.

Were there some concerns about his D? Sure.

Has this been addressed? It sure fucking looks like it has.

Will it continue? We shall fucking see.


Go Rockets.

His defensive efforts against the Blazers on the 1st round last season were fucking disgraceful and on par with that youtube clip.

[Dex]

Well this proves one thing...

Defensive Win Shares is a completely useless stat. :lol

[ElNono]

it's a good stat... it's just small sample size

[spurraider21]

that OKC game inflated everybody's defensive stats tbh

[jsandiego]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/dws_career.html

Doesn't seem that bad of an advanced metric. TD #2 all-time.

[m>s]

it's gotta be a fluke because of the small sample size

maybe a combination of him trying a little harder this year plus other flukey occurrences

[Jenks]

Holy shit

He's 9th in the league in defensive rating

What the fuck is going on, Foot Locker needs to pull those commercials


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6gOtkwYbao

[Killakobe81]

it's a good stat... it's just small sample size

No it's not. Yes, if you combine it with other things it may have some use but again when he is guarding the weakest part of the opposing lineup you have to take it in to context.

As for havoc of course some people cant trust their "eyes" because the average fan don't know what to look for on defense and even if they did you cant always know the all of the team's defensive principles ...plus most just focus on offense and highlight plays like blocks or steals.

I trust my eyes because I know hoops. Stats just confirm what I already see/know 95% of the time. I even said in the USA basketball threads this summer that coach K got him to ray on defense. I think that and the youtube videos have made him give a shit. I give McHale zero credit.