Attn: Harlem and other advanced stat geeks, why are Kobe's plus/minus metrics so

[midnightpulp]

underwhelming?

As any person familiar with advanced stats knows, one of the best stats we have to try and quantify how much a particular player makes his team better is RAPM, which wisely adjusts for a variety of variables outside a player's control (ex. which players he's on the floor with), and in fact, yes, Kobe does make his teammates better since they are usually worse off when he's out of the game.

That said, Kobe's RAPM does lack behind many other greats of his era. Oddly, Kobe has finished in the top 10 in regular season RAPM only twice in his career. A player like Tim Duncan has finished in the top 5 thirteen times over his career and topped the list 3 times.

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/

I can already hear the advanced stat detractors (Kobe fans) typing their criticisms. Yes, role players can post a higher RAPM than stars, but we have to remember that role players play significantly less possessions than stars, so their rating is somewhat inflated. However, RAPM is remarkably consistent with our perception of which players we think are the best. Example, here's the career regular season RAPM of some recent greats:

http://oi61.tinypic.com/34td255.jpg

I think most people would agree that the top 6 players on the list are the best since Michael Jordan. Yes, :lol Garnett, but he was a regular season monster in his prime and his RAPM reflects that.

But why is Kobe, a player who should conceivably be near the top of the list, sitting down there with Baron Davis?

I crosschecked Kobe's RAPM with Basketball Reference's all time plus/minus list (I'm unsure if they use APM, RAPM, xRAPM, etc) and Kobe ranks a somewhat impressive 24th. http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/bpm_career.html

I have some theories why Kobe lacks behind almost all the other top all stars of his era in RAPM (and other advanced metrics), despite his impressive per game stats, and I think the first culprit is ball dominance. When a single player dominates the ball, the other players get out of rhythm offensively and their defense drops off. The second culprit is Kobe's shot selection. He loves 18-20 foot jumpers to a pathological degree. A miss from a long 2 is about the worst miss in basketball and ignites a fast break more effectively than other misses. I also think this is a reason why Kobe has been a net negative defensively for over 10 seasons now.

Kobe does make his teammates better, but there is some truth to the idea that his individual brilliance as a scorer doesn't translate to optimal success for the team.

Your thoughts?

[AussieFanKurt]

:corn:

[RsxPiimp]

Thought this topic was beaten to death. Kobe isn't an efficient player under any metrics, raw or advanced. Then, now or tomorrow. This season alone represents who he is. He doesn't care much about efficiency, win or lose.

[spurraider21]

Thought this topic was beaten to death. Kobe isn't an efficient player under any metrics, raw or advanced. Then, now or tomorrow. This season alone represents who he is. He doesn't care much about efficiency, win or lose.
RAPM has nothing to do with his individual efficiency. its based on the on/off effect he has on his team

[RsxPiimp]

RAPM has nothing to do with his individual efficiency. its based on the on/off effect he has on his team
That's a huge contradiction in itself, considering the huge amount of his usage rate, his efficiency affects
the on and off effect on his team.

[RsxPiimp]

Mid already explained his theory.

I have some theories why Kobe lacks behind almost all the other top all stars of his era in RAPM (and other advanced metrics), despite his impressive per game stats, and I think the first culprit is ball dominance. When a single player dominates the ball, the other players get out of rhythm offensively and their defense drops off.

[spurraider21]

That's a huge contradiction in itself, considering the huge amount of his usage rate, his efficiency affects
the on and off effect on his team.
perhaps "nothing" was incorrect. it just has to do with how well his team does with him as opposed to without him. so its not focusing strictly on FG% or something like that. its his net impact on the game

[spurraider21]

Mid already explained his theory.

I have some theories why Kobe lacks behind almost all the other top all stars of his era in RAPM (and other advanced metrics), despite his impressive per game stats, and I think the first culprit is ball dominance. When a single player dominates the ball, the other players get out of rhythm offensively and their defense drops off.
Chris Paul and Steve Nash rank higher than him despite being ball dominant themselves. same with LeBron and Wade (well wade in the pre-heatles era)

[midnightpulp]

Chris Paul and Steve Nash rank higher than him despite being ball dominant themselves. same with LeBron and Wade (well wade in the pre-heatles era)

Think the difference is that when a PG dominates the ball he's typically moving and angling to find an open man. When Kobe dominates the ball, it's for 10-15 seconds in the post where he dreamshakes his defender for the majority of that time. Players know he isn't passing, they stop moving, and consequently get out of their rhythm.

[spurraider21]

Think the difference is that when a PG dominates the ball he's typically moving and angling to find an open man. When Kobe dominates the ball, it's for 10-15 seconds in the post where he dreamshakes his defender for the majority of that time. Players know he isn't passing, they stop moving, and consequently get out of their rhythm.
:cry but he has 6000 assists

[100%duncan]

:cry but he has 6000 assists

Faggots at FB tbh.

"Who says he doesnt pass?"

[RsxPiimp]

A bit OT, but David Robinson dominated the RAPM metrics for the most part of the 90's ranking #1 from 91-96 if I read it correctly.

[RsxPiimp]

Think the difference is that when a PG dominates the ball he's typically moving and angling to find an open man. When Kobe dominates the ball, it's for 10-15 seconds in the post where he dreamshakes his defender for the majority of that time. Players know he isn't passing, they stop moving, and consequently get out of their rhythm.
Yep.

[ElNono]

You could write "Why is glorified TMac plus/minus so underwhelming?" and you're basically talking the same thing...

[spurraider21]

A bit OT, but David Robinson dominated the RAPM metrics for the most part of the 90's ranking #1 from 91-96 if I read it correctly.
David Robinson has always graded out remarkably well in any form of advanced statistic. IBM was giving out an award for a while for best statistical player using some metric they came up with, and D-Rob was always up there.

He had gaudy raw numbers (just look at his points/rebs/steals/blocks before his injury in 96), but given the state of those Spurs rosters, his on/off numbers were tremendous too. In terms of team/impact it was a lot like KG and the Wolves tbh

[AlexJones]

Think the difference is that when a PG dominates the ball he's typically moving and angling to find an open man. When Kobe dominates the ball, it's for 10-15 seconds in the post where he dreamshakes his defender for the majority of that time. Players know he isn't passing, they stop moving, and consequently get out of their rhythm.

The only year where he didn't play like that was 2009. Honestly at the time I thought his game would evolve to becoming more like LeBron's

[RsxPiimp]

David Robinson has always graded out remarkably well in any form of advanced statistic. IBM was giving out an award for a while for best statistical player using some metric they came up with, and D-Rob was always up there.

He had gaudy raw numbers (just look at his points/rebs/steals/blocks before his injury in 96), but given the state of those Spurs rosters, his on/off numbers were tremendous too. In terms of team/impact it was a lot like KG and the Wolves tbh
Yeah seems to be the case. I remember everytime I looked at newspapers for NBA scores and stats, Robinson was putting up Lebron like numbers on a nightly basis. He was a monster for sure.

[RsxPiimp]

David Robinson has always graded out remarkably well in any form of advanced statistic. IBM was giving out an award for a while for best statistical player using some metric they came up with, and D-Rob was always up there.

He had gaudy raw numbers (just look at his points/rebs/steals/blocks before his injury in 96), but given the state of those Spurs rosters, his on/off numbers were tremendous too. In terms of team/impact it was a lot like KG and the Wolves tbh
Yeah seems to be the case. I remember everytime I looked at newspapers for NBA scores and stats, Robinson was putting up Lebron like numbers on a nightly basis. He was a monster for sure.

[spurraider21]

Yeah seems to be the case. I remember everytime I looked at newspapers for NBA scores and stats, Robinson was putting up Lebron like numbers on a nightly basis. He was a monster for sure.
:lol i used to be a newspaper junkie too... every morning the sports section cover to cover basically

[midnightpulp]

A bit OT, but David Robinson dominated the RAPM metrics for the most part of the 90's ranking #1 from 91-96 if I read it correctly.

Yep. Perhaps the greatest regular season player of the 90's.

[spurraider21]

Yep. Perhaps the greatest regular season player of the 90's.
KG of the 90's... but instead of hopping to boston he just waited for duncan to get drafted

[Thread]

25-5-5

[ambchang]

You have to look at this from a different lens.

You have to understand how stack the current game is, and even an all-time great like Kobe would inadvertently suffer as a consequence.

Look at 2001-2002 season, widely known as Kobe's best season of the Shaq-led three peat seasons. Kobe ranked 20th that season, that is still 95 %tile or so of the league, which really is incredible. And when you look at the people ranked ahead of him, they are all all-time greats! Shaq, Duncan, Robinson, Garnett, Vlade Divac (if you are from Eastern Europe, Divac is basically God over there), Pierce (bested Kobe in the 08 Finals as well, and out-performed him in the 10 Finals in a losing effort), Wallace (one of the best defensive players of all time), Nowitzki, Baron Davis (the best fat PG of all time), and Steve Francis (the best mentally unstable NBA player of all time, tying Artest, Rodman and Marbury).

It's no shame for Kobe to be ranked below any of those players.

Then you look at the 08-09 season (which is the only season Kobe ever led his team in WS in a championship winning year, aka as the year MVPau against D12 in the Finals while Kobe went up against Hed:lol), where Kobe ranked behind Lebron, CP3, Duncan (again), Dwade, D12, Garnett (again), Kidd, and Odom. Each one of them is a legend.

You guys make it out like he had a lesser impact than Mengke Bateer or Jud Buechler, when he was right along great players like Allen Iverson, Jason Kidd and Steve Francis.

[Buddy Mignon]

So KG is better than Jim. Ok.

[Medvedenko]

So KG is better than Jim. Ok.

Pretty much, we already know this....Stats DON'T lie.

[SupremeGuy]

Thanks for making this thread, I was just wondering about this stuff earlier.

[AlexJones]

lol that Steve Nash oRAPM

[Cry Havoc]

So KG is better than Jim. Ok.

In the regular season? Definitely arguable.

[FkLA]

I've never understood why it's so hard for the masses to see this. They don't even have to dig deep. The post-Shaq, pre-MVPau years are there. If they look just a little closer, it's clear as day that Kirby's solution to not having elite talent around him is to to 'prevent crime' and put it upon himself to do more individually.

Is it really that hard to conclude that that is a terrible formula for making other guys better? RAPM is just confirming the obvious tbh.

[midnightpulp]

You have to look at this from a different lens.

You have to understand how stack the current game is, and even an all-time great like Kobe would inadvertently suffer as a consequence.

Look at 2001-2002 season, widely known as Kobe's best season of the Shaq-led three peat seasons. Kobe ranked 20th that season, that is still 95 %tile or so of the league, which really is incredible. And when you look at the people ranked ahead of him, they are all all-time greats! Shaq, Duncan, Robinson, Garnett, Vlade Divac (if you are from Eastern Europe, Divac is basically God over there), Pierce (bested Kobe in the 08 Finals as well, and out-performed him in the 10 Finals in a losing effort), Wallace (one of the best defensive players of all time), Nowitzki, Baron Davis (the best fat PG of all time), and Steve Francis (the best mentally unstable NBA player of all time, tying Artest, Rodman and Marbury).

It's no shame for Kobe to be ranked below any of those players.

Then you look at the 08-09 season (which is the only season Kobe ever led his team in WS in a championship winning year, aka as the year MVPau against D12 in the Finals while Kobe went up against Hed:lol), where Kobe ranked behind Lebron, CP3, Duncan (again), Dwade, D12, Garnett (again), Kidd, and Odom. Each one of them is a legend.

You guys make it out like he had a lesser impact than Mengke Bateer or Jud Buechler, when he was right along great players like Allen Iverson, Jason Kidd and Steve Francis.

Here's the updated RAPM that covers 14 seasons, and he's now actually fallen below Baron Davis.

http://public.tableausoftware.com/profile/#!/vizhome/14YearRAPM/14YearRAPM

[Seventyniner]

Here's the updated RAPM that covers 14 seasons, and he's now actually fallen below Baron Davis.

http://public.tableausoftware.com/profile/#!/vizhome/14YearRAPM/14YearRAPM

In before :lol Amir Johnson

[Johnny RIngo]

The most damning thing about Kobe's RAPM numbers is his overall negative values on defense. For a guy that's been awarded so many All-Defensive selections it's pretty hilarious to see that Nash has played better defense than him over the past 14 years :lol

[benstanfield]

These sorts of stats really take a wet shit on Melo tbh, 25th in O rank and 1,013th in D rank

[Johnny RIngo]

So I took the DRAPM(defensive RAPM) numbers of all the guards and small forwards and organized them from best to worst just to see where Kobe stacks up. He has 12 All-Defensive selections so he should be pretty high up there, right? I didn't include young guys like George, Butler, Green, Leonard, etc because it wouldn't be fair to compare TOSB Kobe with them so I only included players that could be considered his peers(or close enough).

4.0 - Tony Allen
3.4 - Metta
3.3 - Eddie Jones
3.1 - Bruce Bowen
3.1 - Christie
3.0 - Deng
2.8 - Iguodala
2.8 - Battier
2.8 - Thabo
2.5 - Marion
2.5 - G Wallace
2.2 - Lebron
2.2 - Pierce
2.2 - Eric Snow
1.9 - Ariza
1.7 - Manu
1.5 - Kidd
1.4 - Vince Carter
1.2 - Baron Davis
1.2 - Josh Howard
1.2 - Bobby Jackson
1.1 - James Posey
1.1 - Fisher
1.0 - Ronnie Brewer
0.9 - Devean George
0.9 - Luke Walton
0.9 - Mike Dunleavy
0.8 - Chris Paul
0.7 - Prince
0.7 - Earl Watson
0.7 - Anthony Parker
0.7 - Sasha Pavlovic
0.6 - Turkoglu
0.5 - McGrady
0.5 - Rashard Lewis
0.5 - TJ Ford
0.4 - Wade
0.4 - James Jones
0.3 - Rafer Alston
0.3 - Livingston
0.2 - Daniel Gibson
0.1 - Delfino
0.1 - Giricek
0.1 - Kyle Korver
0.1 - Matt Barnes
0.0 - Duhon
0.0 - Derek Anderson
-0.1 - Mobley
-0.2 - Tinsley
-0.2 - Joe Johnson
-0.2 - Raja Bell
-0.2 - Cassell
-0.3 - Andre Miller
-0.3 - Marco Jaric
-0.4 - Brent Barry
-0.4 - Rondo
-0.4 - SJax
-0.5 - Rip Hamilton
-0.5 - Jameer Nelson
-0.5 - Jordan Farmar
-0.5 - Keith Bogans
-0.5 - Reggie Miller
-0.5 - Mike James
-0.5 - Steve Francis
-0.5 - Courtney Lee
-0.5 - Granger
-0.6 - Dorrel Wright
-0.6 - Steve Nash
-0.6 - Tony Parker
-0.7 - Devin Harris
-0.7 - Grant Hill
-0.8 - Caron Butler
-0.8 - Stackhouse
-0.8 - Iverson
-0.9 - CJ Miles
-0.9 - Vaughn
-0.9 - John Salmons
-0.9 - Kobe

There's quite a few after Kobe but I didn't want to continue sorting through that list any longer than necessary. If you include all positions, Duncan and Garnett are at the top of the list for defense. Makes sense that those two have won so many All-Defensive selections. What the fuck did Kobe do to get twelve of them though?

[Splits]

Kobe's still an elite defender despite all yous guys and your biased math: https://vine.co/v/OvAFmVF1gj5

[ElNono]

http://oi61.tinypic.com/34td255.jpg

Where's Enrique, tbh?

[benstanfield]

Where's Enrique, tbh?

Mid 120s:

Hero
McDyess
Melo

tbh:lol

[Malik Hairston]

- RAPM is better used by individual season IMO, rather than career(which includes declining years, etc)

- The RAPM numbers are actually season + playoffs, not just regular season..technically, you could use them as "regular season numbers", though, as obviously the regular season sample size is significantly larger than the playoffs(especially if you didn't make it to the Finals, obviously)

- Players with comparable possession and usage numbers should be compared to each other..players with lower possessions receive favorable RAPM numbers..even superstar players, like Shaq post-2002 and Duncan in a few years, played significantly less possessions, which helped boost their number

- It's better combined with other stats like VORP to give a full picture

- It's cool to look at both NPI RAPM along with regular RAPM, as sometimes the Prior-Informed makes the result a little flawed(sometimes a player will rank higher than he should in an injury year, due to reputation, for example)

- Number of times a player cracked +10 in a year(Shaq 2001, Shaq 2002, Duncan 2003, Shaq 2004, Duncan 2004, Garnett 2004, Duncan 2005, Duncan 2007, Lebron 2009, Lebron 2010, Lebron 2013)

[Splits]

Question: Name an NBA all-time top-20 player to be drafted outside the top-10 and start less than 10 games in their first 2 seasons combined.