boutons_deux
02-09-2015, 09:14 PM
Crude oil conspiracy theories could be right: Oil is often the reason for interfering in another country's war
the decision to interfere was dominated by the interveners' need for oil over and above historical, geographical or ethnic ties.
"We found clear evidence that countries with potential for oil production are more likely to be targeted by foreign intervention if civil wars erupt.
"Military intervention is expensive and risky. No country joins another country's civil war without balancing the cost against their own strategic interests and what possible benefits there are.
"We wanted to go beyond conspiracy theories and conduct a careful, nuanced analysis to see whether oil acts as an economic incentive in the decision on whether to intervene in an internal war in another country.
"The results show that outsiders are much more motivated to join a fight if they have a vested financial interest."
Among the findings, published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, are:
The more oil a country has, the more likely a third party will intervene in their civil war;
The more oil a country imports, the greater the likelihood it will intervene in an oil-producing country's civil war;
"The 'thirst for oil' is often put forward as a near self-evident explanation behind the intervention in Libya and the absence of intervention in Syria.
Many claims are often simplistic but, after a rigorous and systematic analysis, we found that the role of economic incentives emerges as a key factor in intervention."
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/01/150127212214.htm
the decision to interfere was dominated by the interveners' need for oil over and above historical, geographical or ethnic ties.
"We found clear evidence that countries with potential for oil production are more likely to be targeted by foreign intervention if civil wars erupt.
"Military intervention is expensive and risky. No country joins another country's civil war without balancing the cost against their own strategic interests and what possible benefits there are.
"We wanted to go beyond conspiracy theories and conduct a careful, nuanced analysis to see whether oil acts as an economic incentive in the decision on whether to intervene in an internal war in another country.
"The results show that outsiders are much more motivated to join a fight if they have a vested financial interest."
Among the findings, published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, are:
The more oil a country has, the more likely a third party will intervene in their civil war;
The more oil a country imports, the greater the likelihood it will intervene in an oil-producing country's civil war;
"The 'thirst for oil' is often put forward as a near self-evident explanation behind the intervention in Libya and the absence of intervention in Syria.
Many claims are often simplistic but, after a rigorous and systematic analysis, we found that the role of economic incentives emerges as a key factor in intervention."
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/01/150127212214.htm